Reviewing Last Year’s Top 100 List

February 19, 2019

Each year, we strive to improve our process for ranking prospects. Part of that is reviewing our past rankings to identify any trends or biases that may have emerged. This post doesn’t represent a comprehensive effort to do so. Rather, think of it more as a first step to finding any low-hanging fruit we may have missed.

The 2018 version of our Picks to Click was less formal than this year’s edition. Last year, we listed 62 players, representing a mix of those in striking distance of the top 100, guys we thought would improve their rankings in 2019, and players we just liked. This year, we narrowed it down further to players who have never been a 50 FV before and who hadn’t appeared on the 2018 Picks to Click list. The aim is to have a leaner list with a higher percentage of players who will become 50 FV prospects for the first time next year.

We identified 15 of the 33 players who were new to the 2019 Top 100 in the 2018 Picks to Click (this excludes Yusei Kikuchi and the players drafted in 2018, as none of them were eligible for last year’s list). A handful of the 18 we didn’t include in our Picks to Click were close to last year’s Top 100 and wouldn’t have been much of a stretch to rank; a few were late cuts from both lists. All told, we picked about half of the new Top 100 talents. The 62 players on last year’s Picks to Click essentially broke down into three equal groups: stock up, steady, and stock down. Our goal is that this year’s leaner and more-focused group of 55 prospects will beat that mark. We also found the Picks to Click group of performers with lesser tools had our worst outcome (the success was Brandon Lowe, who would’ve been shoehorned into another group if this one didn’t exist), so we axed that subset from this year’s incarnation.

On last year’s Top 100, we included honorable mentions for the rest of the 50 FV prospects, which got us to 139 total players. I’ve manually graded whether the stock of those 139 went up, down, or held steady in 2019, and added a “slight” modifier for the in-between cases.

2018 Top 100 Prospects Stock Movement

Direction	Graduated	Prospects	Total
Up	7	11	18
Slight Up	2	5	7
Steady	9	37	46
Slight Down	8	16	24
Down	3	41	44

The names you’re most familiar with are in the “Up” group: Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero , Jr., Walker Buehler, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Wander Franco, Forrest Whitley, and so on. The top tier of the “Up” group only makes up 13% of the list, but that’s also picking from the most elite prospects in the game, so there isn’t much more room to improve.

I’m open to suggestions from the readers as to how best to read this, but the most notable trend I see is that the “Up”/”Slight Up” group tends to have more hitters (18 of 25, for 72%), while the down group is mostly pitchers (24 of 44, for 55%). This makes sense given pitcher attrition, but also suggests that we should perhaps be more cautious ranking minor league pitching prospects. It’s worth noting that in Craig Edwards’ research, generally speaking, the lower you go in the Top 100, the bigger the gap between hitter and pitcher value. I didn’t complete this analysis before we finalized this year’s Top 100, but we did note while making the list that it seemed to have more hitters on the back half than last year’s. This year, 33 of the 87 (38%) prospects with exactly a 50 FV were pitchers; that number was 44 of 97 (45%) last year.

Stock Movement of Graduates from the 2018 Top 100

2018 Rk	Player Name	Pos.	Team	2018 FV	2018 WAR	Trend
2	Ronald Acuna	CF	ATL	65	3.7	Up
50	Juan Soto	RF	WAS	50	3.7	Up
82	Brian Anderson	3B	MIA	50	3.4	Up
27	Walker Buehler	RHP	LA	55	3.3	Up
14	Miguel Andujar	3B	NYY	60	2.7	Up
65	Jack Flaherty	RHP	STL	50	2.3	Up
12	Gleyber Torres	SS	NYY	60	1.9	Up
HM	Joey Lucchesi	LHP	SDP	50	1.1	Slight Up
HM	Jesse Winker	LF	CIN	50	0.9	Slight Up
1	Shohei Ohtani	RHP/DH	LAA	70	2.8	Steady
11	Willy Adames	SS	TB	60	1.3	Steady
61	Tyler O’Neill	RF	STL	50	1.3	Steady
HM	Fernando Romero	RHP	MIN	50	0.7	Steady
43	Jake Bauers	RF	TB	50	0.6	Steady
HM	Brandon Woodruff	RHP	MIL	50	0.5	Steady
35	Corbin Burnes	RHP	MIL	55	0.2	Steady
47	Austin Meadows	LF	PIT	50	0.2	Steady
HM	Christian Arroyo	3B	TBR	50	0.2	Steady
53	Colin Moran	3B	PIT	50	0.7	Slight Down
78	Max Fried	LHP	ATL	50	0.4	Slight Down
29	J.P. Crawford	SS	PHI	55	0.3	Slight Down
32	Franklin Barreto	CF	OAK	55	0.2	Slight Down
HM	Tyler Mahle	RHP	CIN	50	0.1	Slight Down
83	Ryan McMahon	1B	COL	50	0.0	Slight Down
HM	Chance Sisco	C	BAL	50	0.0	Slight Down
85	Carson Kelly	C	STL	50	-0.4	Slight Down
25	Scott Kingery	2B	PHI	55	-0.1	Down
63	Dustin Fowler	CF	OAK	50	-0.6	Down
13	Lewis Brinson	CF	MIA	60	-1.2	Down

Stock Movement of Prospects from the 2018 Top 100

2018 Rk	Player Name	Pos.	Team	2018 FV	2019 FV	Trend
3	Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.	3B	TOR	65	70	Up
8	Forrest Whitley	RHP	HOU	60	65	Up
38	Royce Lewis	CF	MIN	55	65	Up
56	Ke’Bryan Hayes	3B	PIT	50	55	Up
57	Taylor Trammell	CF	CIN	50	60	Up
66	Jo Adell	RF	LAA	50	60	Up
70	Jesus Luzardo	LHP	OAK	50	55	Up
81	Sean Murphy	C	OAK	50	55	Up
99	Alex Kirilloff	RF	MIN	50	60	Up
HM	Wander Franco	SS	TBR	50	65	Up
HM	Keibert Ruiz	C	LAD	50	60	Up
24	Keston Hiura	2B	MIL	55	60	Slight Up
40	Carter Kieboom	3B	WAS	55	60	Slight Up
45	Ian Anderson	RHP	ATL	50	55	Slight Up
55	Austin Riley	3B	ATL	50	55	Slight Up
73	Adonis Medina	RHP	PHI	50	55	Slight Up
4	Victor Robles	CF	WAS	65	65	Steady
5	Fernando Tatis, Jr.	3B	SD	65	65	Steady
7	Nick Senzel	3B	CIN	60	60	Steady
9	Bo Bichette	2B	TOR	60	60	Steady
10	Kyle Tucker	RF	HOU	60	60	Steady
19	Sixto Sanchez	RHP	PHI	60	60	Steady
22	Brendan McKay	LHP/1B	TB	60	60	Steady
26	Kyle Wright	RHP	ATL	55	55	Steady
28	Luis Urias	2B	SD	55	55	Steady
30	A.J. Puk	LHP	OAK	55	55	Steady
33	MacKenzie Gore	LHP	SD	55	55	Steady
34	Mike Soroka	RHP	ATL	55	55	Steady
37	Cristian Pache	CF	ATL	55	55	Steady
49	Jesus Sanchez	RF	TB	50	50	Steady
51	Triston McKenzie	RHP	CLE	50	50	Steady
60	Touki Toussaint	RHP	ATL	50	50	Steady
68	Tristen Lutz	RF	MIL	50	50	Steady
69	Jahmai Jones	CF	LAA	50	50	Steady
71	Danny Jansen	C	TOR	50	50	Steady
74	Cole Tucker	SS	PIT	50	50	Steady
76	Nate Pearson	RHP	TOR	50	50	Steady
80	Yu-Cheng Chang	SS	CLE	50	50	Steady
86	Leody Taveras	CF	TEX	50	50	Steady
87	Isan Diaz	2B	MIA	50	50	Steady
88	Jon Duplantier	RHP	ARI	50	50	Steady
97	Brandon Marsh	CF	LAA	50	50	Steady
HM	Seuly Matias	RF	KCR	50	45+	Steady
HM	Sandy Alcantara	RHP	MIA	50	50	Steady
HM	Shane Baz	RHP	PIT	50	50	Steady
HM	J.B. Bukauskas	RHP	HOU	50	50	Steady
HM	Dane Dunning	RHP	CHW	50	50	Steady
HM	Matt Manning	RHP	DET	50	50	Steady
HM	Logan Allen	LHP	SDP	50	50	Steady
HM	Adrian Morejon	LHP	SDP	50	50	Steady
HM	Aramis Ademan	SS	CHC	50	50	Steady
HM	Shed Long	2B	CIN	50	50	Steady
HM	Corey Ray	CF	MIL	50	50	Steady
6	Eloy Jimenez	RF	CHW	65	60	Slight Down
15	Brent Honeywell	RHP	TB	60	55	Slight Down
16	Alex Reyes	RHP	STL	60	55	Slight Down
18	Brendan Rodgers	SS	COL	60	55	Slight Down
20	Michael Kopech	RHP	CHW	60	55	Slight Down
21	Luis Robert	CF	CHW	60	55	Slight Down
23	Mitch Keller	RHP	PIT	60	55	Slight Down
31	Luiz Gohara	LHP	ATL	55	50	Slight Down
39	Justus Sheffield	LHP	NYY	55	50	Slight Down
42	Hunter Greene	RHP	CIN	55	50	Slight Down
44	Yordan Alvarez	LF	HOU	50	50	Slight Down
48	Alex Verdugo	RF	LA	50	50	Slight Down
52	Monte Harrison	CF	MIA	50	50	Slight Down
62	Anderson Espinoza	RHP	SD	50	50	Slight Down
64	Will Smith	C	LA	50	50	Slight Down
79	Estevan Florial	CF	NYY	50	50	Slight Down
17	Francisco Mejia	C/3B	CLE	60	50	Down
36	Anthony Alford	CF	TOR	55	40	Down
41	Michel Baez	RHP	SD	55	50	Down
46	Willie Calhoun	DH	TEX	50	45	Down
54	Yadier Alvarez	RHP	LA	50	45	Down
58	Jorge Mateo	CF	OAK	50	45	Down
59	Albert Abreu	RHP	NYY	50	45	Down
67	Jorge Guzman	RHP	MIA	50	45	Down
72	Alec Hansen	RHP	CHW	50	45	Down
75	Riley Pint	RHP	COL	50	45	Down
77	Nick Gordon	SS	MIN	50	45	Down
84	Joey Wentz	LHP	ATL	50	45+	Down
89	Zack Burdi	RHP	CHW	50	45	Down
90	Austin Hays	RF	BAL	50	45	Down
91	Zack Collins	1B	CHW	50	45	Down
92	Bobby Bradley	1B	CLE	50	45	Down
93	Jose Siri	CF	CIN	50	45	Down
94	Braxton Garrett	LHP	MIA	50	45	Down
95	Michael Chavis	1B	BOS	50	45	Down
96	Cole Ragans	LHP	TEX	50	45	Down
98	Jay Groome	LHP	BOS	50	40	Down
100	Franklin Perez	RHP	DET	50	45	Down
HM	Heliot Ramos	CF	SFG	50	45+	Down
HM	Adbert Alzolay	RHP	CHC	50	45	Down
HM	Beau Burrows	RHP	DET	50	45	Down
HM	James Kaprielian	RHP	OAK	50	45	Down
HM	Luis Medina	RHP	NYY	50	45	Down
HM	Chris Rodriguez	RHP	LAA	50	45	Down
HM	Kolby Allard	LHP	ATL	50	45	Down
HM	Stephen Gonsalves	LHP	MIN	50	45	Down
HM	Yohander Mendez	LHP	TEX	50	45	Down
HM	Jose Israel Garcia	SS	CIN	50	45	Down
HM	Christin Stewart	DH	DET	50	45	Down
HM	Franklyn Kilome	RHP	PHI	50	40	Down
HM	Freicer Perez	RHP	NYY	50	40	Down
HM	Cal Quantrill	RHP	SDP	50	40	Down
HM	Anthony Banda	LHP	ARI	50	40	Down
HM	Lucas Erceg	3B	MIL	50	40	Down
HM	Kevin Maitan	3B	LAA	50	40	Down
HM	Jose Adolis Garcia	CF	STL	50	40	Down
HM	Trent Grisham	LF	MIL	50	40	Down

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Francoeursteinmember

5 years ago

I know his stuff is pretty pedestrian, but it’s crazy to me how Kolby Allard has trended down the past two offseasons despite pitching very well in a league in which he is WAY younger than the competition. I know 88-90 mph isn’t sexy, but a 3.52 FIP in the International League as a 20-year old has to mean something.

-2

bosoxforlifemember

Reply to Francoeurstein

It is hard to ignore just how poorly he did when called up to the Braves.

delatopiamember

Why does it have to mean anything at all? I’ve never thought age relative to league meant that much when it came to pitchers, especially if their body types didn’t seem to be very projectable. Hitters are another story, of course.

LightenUpFGmember

It seems that when guys aren’t striking people out at a stunning rate their stock tends to plummet. This is akin to hitters who don’t look like they’re going to stick anywhere in the field aside from 1B or DH (gulp), so they get pushed a bit out of the way. Allard reminds me of Jon Duplantier in that although they’re both considered good minor league pitchers, their lack of strikeout dominance automatically gets them pegged as possible relievers or SP4/5 guys.

If Allard gets another crack at the MLB and shows he can beguile hitters with some good innings, hopefully he’ll have a future as a starter. Even if he does, I wonder if he’ll remain a Brave for much longer given how many guys are coming up in that system that actually can strikeout a stronger amount of hitters.

dl80

The problem with Allard is that not only doesn’t he throw hard, he doesn’t strike anyone out (even in the minors) and he doesn’t have particularly great ground ball rates, either. That’s a recipe for disaster in the majors, which is what happened. Obviously 8 innings doesn’t mean much, but his surface numbers in the minors are the result of low home run rates that his ground ball numbers don’t support.