Archive for adam lind

The Seattle Mariners are in a tough spot. They’re not a bad team, sitting a game over .500. By both Pythagorean wins and BaseRuns, they profile a few games better than that. Over the course of the rest of the season, they’re expected to continue to be a bit above average and our projections have them finishing at 83-79 for the year. That’s not a bad season — and if the team made a few big moves and caught a few breaks, they might even sneak their way into the playoffs where anything can happen. Unfortunately for the Mariners, that scenario isn’t very likely.

The division-leading Texas Rangers hardly seem invincible, but they’ve accrued a decent lead on the Mariners, while other divisional-rival Houston possesses the advantage both of more wins than the Mariners and more talent. This makes the M’s current chances of winning the division rather low. (For an interactive version of the chart, click here.)

They’re not out of it, as you can see, but they do face difficult odds. And keep in mind: these odds are reflective of the talent each club currently possesses on hand. Both the Rangers and Astros are expected to be buyers, and further moves by those teams figure to push their odds higher and the Mariners’ lower unless they counter with a move of their own.

As for the wild card, the task is equally as daunting. The chart below shows the wild-card probabilities only and do not include a team’s chances at the division. (Interactive version here.)

If you’re willing to hand the American League Central to Cleveland, that leaves four additional available playoff spots. Seattle is seventh on that list, with less than a 10% shot. That the top three teams all play in the AL East — and also expected to be buyers before the deadlines — makes Seattle’s predicament all the more obvious. The team isn’t likely to win, so the team should sell. How they should sell, though, is a bit more difficult to decipher.

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Bobby Borchering, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 7th
Current Value: Holding Steady

Borchering (16th) and Matt Davidson (35th) were both selected prior to the second round of the 2009 amateur draft and both were drafted as third basemen. Davidson has thrived in pro ball and is already in double-A. On the other hand, Borchering’s approach at the plate has left something to be desired and has resulted in low walk rates and high strikeout rates and it has hampered his development. That remains true in 2012 but his results have been getting a little bit better with each month as he repeats high-A ball. Now an outfielder, Borchering is hitting for power (32 extra base hits in 64 games) but he may never hit for average unless he makes more adjustments and learns to identify and handle breaking balls. A switch-hitter, the 21-year-old doesn’t hit left-handers very well and focusing solely on swinging from the left side might help him improve a little bit quicker.

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The Toronto Blue Jays made the shocking decision today to demote veteran first baseman Adam Lind to triple-A. In his place the organization added catcher/infielder Yan Gomes to the 40-man roster and promoted him from Las Vegas.

Make no mistake about it, the rookie will not replace Lind in the lineup. Despite outstanding surface numbers at triple-A, the Brazil native has the ceiling of a platoon/part-time player. However, I’ve softened my stance on him since the spring when I wrote about not reading too much into his small-sample numbers. After posting decent numbers at the double-A level in 2011, Gomes followed that up with solid results in the Arizona Fall League in late 2011 and then even better numbers at triple-A this year. Defensively in the minors he’s played 149 games at catcher, 29 at first base and 10 at the hot corner – grading as average-at-best at each.

His numbers at triple-A are definitely aided by the potent hitter’s environment in Las Vegas and the rest of the Pacific Coast League. He was hitting .359 with 17 extra base hits, including five homers, at the time of his promotion. His continued aggressive approach led to just six walks in 131 at-bats, good for a walk rate of 4.3% (He posted walk rates of 3.6% in high-A in ’10 but was up to 8.1% in ’11). Gomes, 24, will also need to adjust his two-strike approach at the big league level; he was hitting .595 while a head in the count at triple-A but that number plummeted to .186 while behind in the count.

A teammate of J.P. Arencibia’s at the University of Tennessee, Gomes and Toronto’s incumbent starting catcher are friendly so that will help him fit into the clubhouse – which some observers have likened to a frat house. Gomes fits a number of club needs. He’ll serve as the third string catcher behind Arencibia and Jeff Mathis. He’ll be a better backup to third baseman Brett Lawrie than the light-hitting Omar Vizquel was and he could occasionally fill in for the equally versatile Edwin Encarnacion, who appears to be the new everyday first baseman.

Although I suggest tempering enthusiasm for Gomes’ promotion it’s not hard to envision him playing an important role on the Jays’ 25-man roster. This move also suggests that Toronto really is taking the 2012 seriously and taking a legitimate stab at competing for the wild card slots. They realized that Lind was unfortunately costing the club runs – and possibly wins. Gomes, on the other hand, should be given a legitimate shot to contribute to the team’s success going forward – or until the organization can cash in on some of its young arms, such as low-A starter Noah Syndergaard, in an effort to acquire a potent veteran bat for the middle of the lineup. An eventual promotion of Vladimir Guerrero, who’s working out in extended spring training, is another possibility.

Regardless of what happens going forward, Gomes deserves some recogniztion for working hard to develop himself into a legitimate big leaguer after being the 310th player selected (10th round) in the 2009 amateur draft and the first Brazilan born player in the majors.

Manager Cito Gaston’s surprise return to the fold in 2008 breathed new life into a floundering organization. The Toronto Blue Jays’ skipper, though, may be at fault for the club’s mid-season demise in the standings.

On May 19, the Jays club was 2.5 games ahead of Boston and 3.5 games ahead of New York in the American League East standings. Now, on the last day of June, the club is in fourth place and seven games behind the first-place Boston Red Sox. How did this happen?

As of June 20, the Jays club had played 78 games (41-37). Five regulars had played 76 games or more: Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro, Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios. Two of those players (Rios and Wells) have been terrible this season and were also left in the No. 3 and 4 holes in the lineup until mid-June.

Two other players are obviously being over-worked by the manager. Hill appeared in just 55 games last year due to a concussion. Despite the time off, the manager has failed to ease the second baseman back into regular play. Scutaro, the club’s undisputed spark plug in the first two months, had never really been a full-time player until last year when he appeared in 145 games. At 33, he’s no spring chicken.

As for Lind, he’s survived remarkably well as the youngest player of the five at 25 years of age and he’s also spent just 26 games in the field. His 50 other appearances have come as the club’s designated hitter.

These five players are obviously playing a lot… so let’s look at the monthly splits and let the stats do the talking for a minute.

Adam Lind
April: .315/.400/.533
May: .264/.333/.453
June: .354/.431/.544

Vernon Wells
April: .283/.345/.465
May: .252/.300/.361
June: .210/.259/.350

Alex Rios
April: .248/.304/.366
May: .302/.359/.509
June: .232/.291/.379

Aaron Hill
April: .365/.412/.567
May: .307/.331/.480
June: .234/.278/.477

Marco Scutaro
April: .281/.421/.506
May: .322/.397/.421
June: .235/.325/.333

As you can see above, four of the five players are down significantly in June. I’m sure management has seen the numbers, but the powers that be are now between a rock and a hard place. The regulars need rest badly, but how do you take them out of the lineup now that the playoffs are (not so) slowly slipping away? The main focus on the Jays this season has been the injuries to the pitching staff and the club’s reliance on young, unproven hurlers. But those pitchers have not been the club’s downfall, whatsoever. The team’s ERA/FIP for the past three months: 4.34/4.37 in April, 4.23/4.35 in May, and 4.22/3.91 in June.

As a side note, I’d also like to point out the disappointing use of veteran back-up infielder John McDonald. The fifth-year Jay has been used in just 28 games this season with just 26 at-bats. That is the most embarrassing use of any player in the Majors this season… and yes, he’s spent the entire season on the roster and has been healthy the entire time. Twenty-six at-bats. That, ladies and gentlemen, is not the way to use you bench… Or treat your veteran players. You know, the ones you’d have to turn to if your starting shortstop or second baseman suddenly got hurt…