Archive for andrew cashner

One need only glance at the Marlins’ projected starters over the next few days to determine where the team could use an upgrade. Jose Urena, a hard-throwing right-hander whose stuff hasn’t translated to strikeouts out of the bullpen or in the rotation, will pitch tonight’s game. Tomorrow, Jarred Cosart is scheduled to pitch — and he has a 15% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate over his career. The Marlins apparently didn’t like the look of that situation going forward, especially if Jose Fernandez’s innings need to be managed and/or if Wei-Yin Chen is unable to return from the disabled list soon.

So, they’ve conducted a trade, which reportedly includes the following pieces (arranged in approximate order of name-recognition):

The Marlins get:

• Andrew Cashner
• Colin Rea
• Tayron Guerrero

The Padres get:

• Jarred Cosart
• Carter Capps
• Josh Naylor
• Luis Castillo

As for the Marlins, they receive an immediate boost from adding Cashner to the rotation. While his season numbers (which include a 4.76 ERA and 4.94 FIP) look pretty ugly, Cashner seemed to have boosted his trade value over the last few weeks. As August Fagerstrom noted recently, he’s been much better since coming off the disabled list:

Cashner’s picked up a half-tick on his average fastball. Pre-disabled list, 15% of his fastballs went 96 or harder. These last four starts, he’s reached that upper-tier of velocity on 21% of fastballs. The walks are down from a bit over 9% to a bit under 6%. The strikeouts are way up, from 15% to 28%, because Cashner is missing plenty more bats. He’s missing more bats inside the zone, perhaps due in part to the added life on the heater, and he’s missing more bats outside the zone, and that’s because of the slider. The slider is really what this is all about.

Cashner’s slider has been more effective of late, and if he can maintain his current run, he should be able to hit his roughly league-average projections and represent an improvement over where the team stands right now. If the playoffs started today, the Marlins would be in, playing in a one-game playoff with the Cardinals for the right to play the Dodgers in another one-game playoff to qualify for the divisional series.

However, the projections see the Cardinals as the better team going forward. They actually see the same for the Mets, who are a game and a half behind the Marlins and Cardinals. The chart below shows the playoff odds before the trade for the teams that look to be in the hunt for the second wild card. The Marlins are in orange, essentially in a dead heat with the Mets and behind the Cardinals.

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General Manager: Jim Hendry
Farm Director: Oneri Fleita
Scouting Director: Tim Wilken

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There is definitely some excitement starting to build in the system. There are interesting names at the top of the list, as well as some sleepers sprinkled throughout the system, many of whom did not fit in the Top 10, which is a very nice thing to see for the Cubs. The organization certainly has a lot of depth in the middle infielder, but many of the arms are unproven and, in some cases, rather brittle.

1. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Texas Christian University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, slider, curve, change-up

Cashner has been a huge find for the organization. Mainly a reliever in college, the right-hander has proven his durability (and repertoire) as a starter. His 1.50 ERA in high-A certainly looks shiny, but his FIP was 3.18 (still good, just not great). At that level, Cashner allowed just 31 hits in 42.0 innings, while showing average control with a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9. His strikeout rate was respectable at 7.29 K/9. He then moved up to double-A, where he allowed 45 hits in 58.1 innings. Cashner’s walk rate increased (4.17 BB/9) and his strikeout rate dropped (6.33 K/9). On the plus side, his ground-ball rate remained around the 47% mark, and he allowed just one home run all season. Cashner will likely begin 2010 back in double-A, with a shot at contributing in Wrigley Field in the second half of the season.

2. Starlin Castro, SS, Double-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

There weren’t many prospects that more helium than Castro in ’09. The shortstop has not stopped hitting since going pro, and he followed up a .300+ debut with another solid offensive performance. Just 19, Castro was pushed from rookie ball to high-A ball and he still hit .302/.340/.391 in 358 at-bats. He also stole 22 bases but was caught 11 times, so he has some work to do on the bases. As well, Castro’s walk rate of just 5.0% was worrisome, but it improved to 8.3% upon a promotion to double-A (111 at-bats). Despite the late-season jump, the shortstop actually showed improvements in his game against better pitching. As mentioned, his walk rate rose, and he also kept his strikeout rate low at 10.8% while hitting .288. Castro was also successful in all six of his stolen base attempts in double-A. Defensively, he has the skill set to remain at shortstop. He’ll likely return to double-A to begin the season, but he’ll probably be the Cubs’ starting shortstop before his 21st birthday.

3. Josh Vitters, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

One of the top prep hitters in the ’07 draft, Vitters has shown a tendency to struggle with each promotion. He hit well during the beginning of the ’09 season in low-A (his second attempt at the level) by hitting .316/.351/.535 in 269 at-bats. He then moved up to high-A ball where he struggled by hitting just .238/.260/.344 in 189 at-bats. The approach to take with Vitters is clear: Don’t throw him any strikes. Keep the pitch off the plate and he’ll get himself out, either by striking out or by hitting a pitcher’s pitch, rather than waiting for something to drive. His walk rate of just 2.6% was a big step back – even from ’08 when he walked just 4.8% of the time in short-season ball. Vitters has shown flashes of having the power needed to remain at third base (.219 ISO in low-A), but that walk rate is going to haunt him at the upper levels of the minors, and it won’t play in the Majors.

4. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Short Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Korea)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Castro can no doubt feel someone breathing down his neck; that someone is Lee. In his first taste of pro ball in North America, the Korean prospect hit .330/.399/.420 in 264 at-bats in short-season ball. Just 18 during the season, Lee did very well for his age and the 10.6% walk rate was certainly encouraging, as was the fact that the left-handed hitter kept his strikeout rate below 20% (18.9%). In a small sample size, the middle infielder performed well against both right-handers (.818 OPS) and left-handers (.827 OPS). He doesn’t have much power in his game right now (.091 ISO) but Lee projects to add at least gap power and could eventually grow into a 15 homer guy. Right now, though, he focuses on hitting the ball on the ground and utilizing his speed (63.5% ground-ball rate). Lee stole 25 bases in 33 attempts; if he keeps that up, he could be a real threat on the base paths for the Cubs.

5. Jay Jackson, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: October 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 9th round – Furman University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curve, change-up

Jackson has been a solid find for the Cubs and has moved much quicker through the system than expected. The former two-way player spent time in high-A ball where he posted a 2.29 FIP, a walk rate of 0.94 and a strikeout rate of 10.80 in seven starts (38.1 IP). In double-A, Jackson struggled a bit with his control (4.25 BB/9), but he still missed his fair share of bats (8.38 K/9) and limited base runners with just 73 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. Overall on the year, Jackson held left-handed hitters to a .214 average, but he struggled with his control (4.72 BB/9 compared to 1.76 against right-handed batters). Just 22 years of age, Jackson received one triple-A start in ’09 and he should head back there in 2010. He has the makings of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

6. Chris Carpenter, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Kent State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curve, change-up

Plagued by injuries as an amateur, Carpenter has been healthy (knock on wood) as a pro. He made 27 starts over three levels in ’09 and reached double-A. Already 24, the right-hander signed as a senior out of college. He spent the majority of the ’09 season in low-A, where he posted a 3.66 FIP and allowed 55 hits in 73.2 innings. Carpenter struggled with his control a bit and he posted a walk rate of 4.03 BB/9. He also had a solid strikeout rate at 7.33 K/9. Moved up to high-A, he had a 2.16 FIP and allowed just 15 hits in 25.0 innings. Carpenter than headed for double-A, where he had a 3.04 FIP in 32.0 innings and did not allow a homer. He also showed solid walk and strikeout rates. Overall, Carpenter posted a ground-ball rate of 52.7% and limited line drives to just 13.2% on the season. He has the potential to be a solid No. 3 starter if he can stay healthy.

7. Ryan Flaherty, SS, Low-A
DOB: July 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Vanderbilt University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Flaherty is in a bit of an uncomfortable position. The former college standout is a shortstop with Castro ahead of him, and Lee behind him. That is one of the reasons why the 23-year-old infielder spent the entire season in low-A ball. The other reason for his status is that he struggled in the first half of the year and really did not hit well until the second half (15 of his 20 homers came after June 1). The left-handed hitter also struggled against southpaws, having hit just .211/.287/.421. As a result, Flaherty could very well be headed for a platoon role, or back-up infielder role. One thing is fairly certain: He won’t be the everyday shortstop in Chicago as long as Castro is around. Flaherty potentially has the power (.194 ISO) to play third base. Overall in ’09, he had a solid season with a triple-slash line of .276/.344/.470 in 485 at-bats.

8. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Short Season
DOB: March 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Korea)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curve, plus change-up

Rhee had an exciting debut in ’08 but Tommy John surgery showed its ugly face and derailed the Korean’s progress. The right-hander returned in ’09 but obviously was not at full strength. Rhee should return to low-A in 2010 and there is hope that his stuff will bounce back to its pre-surgery levels. If all goes well, he has the potential to be a No. 2 starter, but he’s still a long way off.

9. Logan Watkins, 2B, Short Season
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 21st round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:

Watkins is not as flashy as some of the other middle infielders in the system, but he’s shown a lot of potential in a short period of time. The second baseman has a career .326 batting average after two seasons in the low minors, thanks in part to some high BABIPs. Overall in ’09, he hit .326/.389/.391, with a .368 wOBA, in 279 at-bats. Watkins struck out just 11.1% of the time, while producing a reasonable walk rate of 8.8%. He has little-to-no power, and managed an ISO rate of just .065 in ’09. He has some speed but was caught seven times in 21 attempts. Watkins performs better against right-handed pitchers than southpaws: .831 vs .624 OPS.

10. John Gaub, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: April 1985 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2006 21st round – University of Minnesota
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider

The organization may have regretted trading veteran infielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians, but it wasn’t all bad. The club received back three interesting arms in the deal. Gaub is the closest to having a key impact at the MLB level. The left-handed reliever had a dominating season in the minors, even with below-average control (5.34 BB/9 in double-A). At that level, he also allowed just 19 hits in 28.2 innings of work, while also posting a strikeout rate of 12.56 K/9. Moved up to triple-A, Gaub allowed 17 hits in 31.1 innings with a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. His control improved a smidgen to 4.60 BB/9. His stuff – especially his fastball velocity – has improved each of the past three seasons. Impressively, he’s equally as effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters (.167 average/12.57 K/9 vs lefties and .175/11.45 vs righties).

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next week, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. On Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. On Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster. Today, let’s view the Mesa Solar Sox roster.

The Mesa Solar Sox (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Minnesota, Chicago (NL), Los Angeles (AL), Florida, Boston

Andrew Cashner | RHP | Chicago
Drafted as a college reliever, Cashner has made a successful conversion to the starting rotation. He opened the 2009 season by allowing just 31 hits in 42 high-A innings. The right-hander then moved on to double-A where he’s had similar success, although his walk rate has risen from 3.21 to 4.56 BB/9.

Tommy Mendoza | RHP | Los Angeles
This right-hander had a breakout season at the low-A ball level in 2006 at the age of 19. The next two years, though, were a disappointment. Mendoza’s value has risen again in 2009, although the ceiling is a little more modest this time around. Still only 22, he profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

Welington Castillo | C | Chicago
With Geovany Soto tanking with a capital ‘T’ there is suddenly a desperate need for catching depth in the Chicago system. However, Castillo chose a really poor time to have an off-year at the plate. He is a very promising defensive player with an excellent arm behind the dish. Unfortunately, Castillo has proven for two straight seasons now that he cannot hit right-handed pitchers, which significantly hinders his chances of ever playing on an everyday basis.

Hank Conger | C | Los Angeles
Conger has the opposite problem to Castillo. The slugging catcher can mash with the best on them, but his defense is bad enough that no one believes he can remain behind the dish. After struggling with injuries in 2007 and 2008, the switch hitter finally played a full season and is currently hitting .294/.365/.423 in 428 double-A at-bats. A former first-round pick, Conger is still just 21 years old.

Starlin Castro | SS | Chicago
The Cubs organization was aggressive with Castro in 2009 after he hit .311/.364/.464 at rookie ball in 2008. The 19-year-old shortstop hit .302/.340/.391 with 22 steals (in 33 attempts) at high-A in 2009 before being promoted to double-A, where he’s held his own in 24 games. Incumbent MLB shortstop Ryan Theriot needs to be looking over his shoulder.

Matt Dominguez | 3B | Florida
Three prep third basemen were nabbed near the top of the first round during the 2007 draft: Dominguez, Josh Vitters, and Mike Moustakas. All three players have had their struggles but Dominguez (who was drafted last at 12th overall) is the only one of the trio to make it to double-A. Although he’s struggled a bit with the bat, Dominguez has the edge in the field.

Josh Vitters | 3B | Chicago
Vitters has had troubles adapting to new levels in his brief pro career. After starting out very well in 2009 at low-A (His second attempt at the level), he has struggled mightily upon a promotion to high-A. At the root of the problem is his lack of patience at the plate, which has manifested itself in the form of a dismal 2.4 BB% in 2009.

Bryan Petersen | OF | Florida
I highlighted Petersen prior to the 2009 season as a possible breakout candidate in 2009. He hasn’t made me look like a genius, but he’s held his own in double-A as a 23 year old. His power has taken a step back in 2009, with his ISO dropping from .200+ to .120. He’s also struggled on the base paths with only 12 steals in 24 attempts. On the plus side, he’s shown a consistent ability to hit for average and he continues to trim the strikeouts. If he cannot regain some ground with his power and speed numbers, he’ll develop into a fourth outfielder.

Michael Stanton | OF | Florida
Petersen’s teammate should need no introductions. Stanton is one of the biggest mashers in the minors and fans are constantly asking for updates on his ETA, especially after he spent the first part of 2009 demolishing high-A pitching. The holes in the talented outfielder’s plate approach have been exposed by double-A pitchers, though. He’s currently hitting .234/.311/.453 with a strikeout rate of 33.6 K% in 274 at-bats. Stanton will likely opened 2010 in double-A with a mid-season promotion to triple-A possible if he makes the necessary adjustments, which have so far eluded him. At the age of 19, time is very much on his side.

2008 Draft Slot: 19th overall
Top Pick: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian University
Best Pick: Jay Jackson, RHP, Furman University (9th round)
Keep an Eye On: Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State (3rd round)
Notes: Chris Carpenter has always had the stuff to make scouts drool, but a stream of constant injury concerns caused him to slip every year. He’s been healthy in pro ball so far and has the numbers to prove it, although he needs to be challenged and moved out of low-A. Jay Jackson was a two-way player in college, who has taken to full-time pitching like a fish to water. He’s already in double-A. Andrew Cashner had his greatest success in college as a reliever, but the Cubs have him back in the starting rotation. The results have not been pretty. Cashner can touch 99 mph with the fastball, but his control is not good at all.

2007 Draft Slot: Third overall
Top Pick: Josh Vitters, 3B, California high school
Best Pick: Josh Vitters
Worst Pick: Brandon Guyer, OF, University of Virginia (5th round)
Notes: There were three quality prep third basemen at the top of the 2007 draft and Josh Vitters was the second to go off the board (sandwiched between Mike Moustakas, 2nd overall, and Matt Dominguez, 12th overall). However, he struggled early and has fallen behind the other two. Vitters is making more noise in 2009 with a .355 average and 10 homers, but he’s also a level behind the pack. Luckily it’s a marathon, not a sprint. The Cubs’ second pick, catcher Josh Donaldson, helped land pitcher Rich Harden from the A’s in 2008.

2006 Draft Slot: 13th overall
Top Pick: Tyler Colvin, OF, Clemson University
Best Pick: Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Notre Dame University (Fifth round)
Worst Pick: Tyler Colvin
Notes: Everyone scratched their heads from the moment that the Cubs grabbed Tyler Colvin with the 13th overall pick and now everyone’s bald… no one has stopped scratching. Colvin spent 2008 in double-A and was demoted to high-A to begin 2009. He’s hitting .253 with one home run. The Cubs lacked 2nd to 4th round selections and then spent a boatload of money to sway Jeff Samardzija away from the National Football League. It looks like a smart move, but he may be better off as a reliever. Time will tell.

2009 Draft Slot: 31st overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College for the most part
MLB Club Need: Second base, Third base, Catcher
Organizational Need: Left-handed pitching, Left field, Right field, First base
Organizational Strength: Third base, Shortstop
Notes: The club does not pick until 31st overall, so it’s almost impossible to know who is going to be there, especially in this draft where no one is even sure who’s in the mix for No. 2 overall. The Cubs could look to someone like James Paxton, who would immediately become the best left-handed pitcher in the system. He’s a college starter that can hit the high 90s, but his numbers have not been good this year – so he could slide to them. Paxton is a high risk, high reward player (but a much better bet than Colvin).