Archive for Brewers

Last week, Colin Zarzycki reviewed the Milwaukee Brewer bullpen on RotoGraphs. The projected bullpen included the likes of Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, Tom Gorzelanny, Michael Fiers, and Will Smith, among others. The 12 names on the depth chart combined for 12.009 years of MLB service time, with Gorzelanny accounting for half of that total. The depth chart contained some intriguing upside, but was certainly lacking in experience. Enter Francisco Rodriguez, again.

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A part of the allure of Greg Maddux was how he was able to post an above-league average K/9 during the prime years of his career despite not having the velocity of many of his peers. He was the epitome of sacrificing velocity for movement and location in a time when pitchers were observed peeking over their shoulder to the scoreboard to see what they hit on the in-park radar gun.

Thomas Boswell encapsulated Maddux rather well in repeating an anecdote from a time the two spent together in the early 90’s:

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First impressions are important. But they aren’t everything.

The sentiment rings especially true in sports: An impact player might not meet expectations in his first game with a new team, and a mediocre player can initially outperform his true talent level by miles. Heck, if first impressions were really that important, Jeff Francoeur would be a perennial MVP contender, and the Phillies would have sought to rescind the Roy Oswalt trade last summer. What happens on the field often lends itself to narratives both preformed and developed, but taking a step back and examining what fuels a hot or a cold start can help keep everything in perspective.

In other words, Brewers fans shouldn’t be overly concerned about Zack Greinke’s shaky debut on Wednesday.

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Only two players who may be headed to arbitration submitted salary figures at least $2 mil more than what their team’s offered: Ryan Howard ($4 mil) and Prince Fielder ($2 mil). Earlier today, we discussed Howard’s case and how he really does not follow the 40/60/80 fair market value modifier for arbitration deals. Howard set a record last season by winning his case and jumping from $900K to $10 mil, so does Prince have a shot to do something similar? Fielder had his deal renewed to $670K last season, which infuriated the portly first baseman.

Prince submitted an $8 mil figure while the Brewers felt a more appropriate salary would be $6 mil. Granted, with such a small discrepancy, relatively speaking, it should be much easier to settle with Fielder than Howard, but, alliteration aside what does Prince’s projected production portend?

The projection systems suggest Fielder’s wOBA will come between .380 and .400. At .390, he would be worth right around +32 runs with the bat. His fielding has never been a strong suit, ranging from -7 to -10 with the glove. Prince has been very durable, however, so 160 games and 680 PA are not a stretch. Based on these numbers, Fielder would be worth approximately +33.5 runs above replacement. We will round this off to +3.4 wins.

At fair market value, Prince commands $15.3 mil. Entering his first season, his value can be calculated by multiplying the fair market value by 40%. 0.40 * $15.3 mil = $6.1 mil. Essentially, the Brewers proposed salary is exactly 40% of Prince’s fair market value. Fielder’s figure would value around 52% of his fair market value, potentially setting up a 50/70/90 modifier as opposed to 40/60/80.

GM Doug Melvin has hinted that a settlement may well be reached prior to the court date, regardless of the fact that Scott Boras represents Prince. Whether Fielder gets $6 mil or $8 mil, the eventual contract makes sense given his production level and service time, especially considering he isn’t immediately jumping to 75-80% of his market value.

Though most of the offseason attention has been spent discussing where top-tier pitchers like CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe will sign, several hurlers capable of filling out the middle to back of the rotation were available. Daniel Cabrera became the most recent of these pitcher to sign, when he inked a one year deal with the Nationals. Tim Redding is currently seeking a two-year deal, and may very well receive one from the New York Mets. Another pitcher along these lines, likely better than Cabrera and Redding, is Braden Looper.

Looper, 34, spent the last three seasons on the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2006, he appeared in 69 games out of the bullpen, putting together a solid season with a 3.46 FIP. Looper moved to the rotation the next season, where he logged 175 innings while posting a 4.82 FIP. He did not exactly take the league by storm but had value above replacement level and made just $4.5 mil.

This past season, Braden earned $5.5 mil while recording a 4.52 FIP in 199 innings. With a slight bonus for pitching about 200 innings, Looper was a +2 win pitcher in 2008.

In 2009, Marcel projects Looper to be a 4.53 FIP pitcher in 170 innings. I think it is more realistic he will log closer to 180 innings. Let’s call him a 180 inning pitcher with a 4.60 FIP, which would result in 92 runs allowed. A replacement level starter with a 5.50 FIP in 150 innings would allow 92 runs. The replacement reliever would amass the remaining 30 innings at a 4.50 FIP, allowing 15 runs in the process.

This places Looper at +15 runs above replacement, and we can add another two runs as a bonus for pitching 180 innings. With these numbers, Looper projects to be a +1.5 to +1.7 win pitcher next season. At the going rate of $5 mil/win, Looper’s fair market value would be set at $8.5 mil, $3 mil more than his salary last season.

It is somewhat surprising that Looper’s name has not surfaced in rumors or reports as often as the likes of Cabrera and Redding. Considering the fact that he has proven himself better and projects more optimistically than either of the aforementioned pitchers, that only one report features Braden’s potential new location—Milwaukee—seems odd. How does Redding have several reported suitors yet Looper only has one, and that has not even been confirmed?

Regardless, whichever team ends up inking him to a deal will be getting a pitcher who, last season, showed a big improvement in his O-Swing%, increasing from 20% to 25%. At the same time, his Z-Swing%, which measures pitches swung at in the strike zone, dropped by an almost equal amount. His percentage of first strikes rose from 55% to 62% and he sustained a 51% rate of pitches thrown in the strike zone. Put together, he was able to increase swings on bad pitches and decrease swings on good pitches, while avoiding throwing more pitches out of the zone and getting ahead more often.

Looper may be 34, and he might not have the power potential of a Cabrera, or the potential cheap fee like a Redding, but he can definitely strengthen the back end of a rotation.

Earlier this week, both Dave and I discussed the importance of adding context to free agent and trade analyses. Baseball does not take place in a vacuum, where everything is equal, so a signing might make a lot of sense to one team while making little sense to another. Dave whipped out a neat spreadsheet that showed the average dollars per win a team could spend based on its payroll and desire to win 40 games above replacement level. The idea is that anybody could win 50 games at $12 mil with a team consisting of replacement players, so the ultimate goal would be to win 40 more games with (2009 payroll – $12 mil).

Following that, I put the context-analysis to work by evaluating how much money Ben Sheets would cost, at fair market value, and how that relates to the Brewers available funds and strategy. Updating that work, the Brewers, prior to today, would enter 2009 with $62,699,000 committed to players who combine for 35 WAR. Now, the projected Brewers payroll was initially considered to be $85 mil; however, factoring in their $20 mil/yr offer to CC Sabathia, the figure is probably closer to $90 mil. For the sake of this post and any Brewers signings moving forward, we will put them at $90 mil for 2009, meaning that, prior to today, they had $27.3 mil to spend in order to add five or more wins.

The Brewers just signed Jorge Julio to a 1-yr deal, so how does he fit into this mold? Well, the base salary for Julio is rumored to be $950,000, with another $950,000 available in incentives based on appearances and how many games he finishes. Based on his past, I will say that the $600k incentive will kick in but not the $350k. Therefore, Julio would likely be paid $1.55 mil in 2009. How much is he worth?

Marcel projects him to pitch 46 innings at a 4.27 FIP. That comes out to 22 runs allowed. A replacement level reliever would pitch 46 innings at a 4.75 FIP, for 24 runs. Essentially, with nothing else taken into account, Julio is worth +2 run above replacement, or +0.2 wins. Normally, we would add a few runs to factor in the leverage of the reliever’s appearances, but it isn’t likely that Julio will be called upon too often in a pinch. I’ll add another run, making him +0.3 wins above replacement for 2009. If wins cost around $5 mil right now, then the fair market value for Julio would be $1.5 mil. The Brewers are paying just slightly over that figure.

This would give the Brewers 35.3 WAR as opposed to 35.0, with $25.75 mil left to spend to amass those remaining 4.7 wins. This deal isn’t going to kill the Brewers, unless Julio vastly defies his true talent level, or he is used in the wrong situations, and it could prove to be a nice reclamation project of sorts. If the payroll is upwards of $90 mil, they could still sign Sheets to his fair market value of $14.7 mil, adding 3.2 wins in the process. This would put them 1.5 WAR away from the goal of 90 wins, with $11 mil leftover. What they will do remains to be seen, but Julio looks like a pretty good signing relative to his projected contribution, base salary, and the incentive likely to kick in.

For the last day or two we have begun to delve deep into the baseball economy and how it relates to fair market value, free agency, and context. This morning, our discussion centered around the necessity to add context in order to more accurately represent free agency analyses. This afternoon, Dave brought forth a great evaluative tool, showing average dollars/win figures for all 30 teams. The figures in the spreadsheet were arrived at after concluding that a team of replacement players would cost $12 mil and win 50 games; that the goal of each team would be to win 40 games above replacement; by subtracting the $12 mil from the estimated payroll; and finally by dividing that difference by the 40 wins above replacement.

The logical next step is to actually put this into action, combining an analysis of fair market value with the context of a specific team. With the news that the Brewers have decided to offer arbitration to Ben Sheets, he seems like the perfect person on which to test our new methods. To make the post a bit easier to read, I’ll break it up into different sections.

Brewers Payroll
Over the last three years, the Brewers have increased their payroll from $57 mil to $80 mil. If we factor in about a 5% markup, their 2009 payroll can be estimated at $84 mil. Therefore, they would have $72 mil ($84 mil payroll – $12 mil replacement payroll) to win 40 games (90 wins – 50 replacement wins). The quotient amounts to an average of $1.8 mil/win. Now, this is just an average, and does not imply that every signing the Brewers make has to be for $1.8 mil/win. However, every player of theirs that exceeds $1.8 mil/win will necessitate an adjustment in what they have left to spend.

Ben Sheets & Fair Market Value
Weighting the Bill James and Marcel projections for 2009 puts Sheets at 180 innings with a 3.60 FIP, very solid numbers. He might not be the guy who, in 2004, produced a 2.65 FIP, 2.70 ERA, and > 8.0 K/BB, but he still has the ability to dominate. A replacement level starter would log 150 innings with a 5.50 FIP while a replacement reliever would pitch the remaining 30 innings at a 4.50 FIP.

Ben Sheets:     180 IP, 3.60 FIP, 72 runs
Replacement SP: 150 IP, 5.50 FIP, 92 runs
Replacement RP:  30 IP, 4.50 FIP, 15 runs

All told, that would put Sheets at 72 runs and the replacement level at 107 runs. This +35 run advantage for Sheets puts him at +3.5 wins above replacement. Normally, we would add a quarter-win or half-win for the fact that the starter in question would pitch the innings and help save the bullpen. Sheets does not get this advantage from me, and given his inability to consistently make more than, say, 22 starts in a season, I’m actually going to dock him a quarter-win, bringing his value to a solid +3.25 wins above replacement.

The going rate right now is $5 mil/win, so if Ben were to sign a 1-yr deal, the appropriate fee would be $16.25 mil. Factor in a 10% discount for a multi-year deal, and his 3-yr deal would be worth $44 mil, an average annual value (AAV) of $14.7 mil. That AAV divided by his 3.25 WAR amounts to a fee of $4.52 mil/win, about two and a half times higher than the Brewers’ average of $1.8 mil/win.

The Contract & The Team
If we knew nothing else about the Brewers, other than that they were striving for 40 wins above replacement and had 73 mil left with which to accomplish the feat, then signing Sheets to this deal would mean they now had 37 wins to add with about $58 mil to spend. We do know about the Brewers, though, and thanks to the guys at BrewCrewBall, calculations about returning players and their salaries can be made.

According to their figures, the Brewers will have 16 players returning to the roster, at an approximate sum of $66,449,000. The link suggests the total is closer to $73 mil, but Salomon Torres retired, and I’m unsure what is going on with Craig Counsell, so they were both removed. Calculating the wins above replacement for all 16 players, the total comes to about 35 wins, at the $66,449,000. This means that the Brewers have $17,551,000 left to spend in order to accrue the five remaining wins necessary to reach 40 WAR.

If they signed Ben Sheets to this 3-yr deal at fair market value, which would be an AAV of $14.7 mil for three seasons, they would have 38 wins above replacement amongst 17-19 players, and about $3 mil left to spend. Because they are getting such great deals on Braun (an astrounding $149,000 per win), Hardy, Weeks, and Hart, they can use the money saved in those areas to afford the inevitable jump in arbitration for the likes of Prince as well as other potential free agent targets.

Based on the projections for those returning, the Brewers appear to be in a solid position for 2009, and with about $14-17 mil remaining, should be able to increase from 35 wins to 40 wins above replacement, bringing their projection to 90 wins. Signing Sheets would be nice, but doing so may necessitate the usage of prospects to fill out the roster, who, could add quality for the league minimum, but might not be very useful.

Moving Forward
The next step in these types of analyses is to evaluate the remaining money in terms of the spots that need to be filled. With their $17 mil remaining outside of those returning, it is quite different in signing starters as opposed to a LOOGY, long reliever, and backup infielder. So, Brewers faithful on the interwebs, what are the positions that are not returning next season? And, on top of that, would you prefer to sign Sheets to his fair market value and fill the remaining spots with farm players, or invest that $14-17 mil elsewhere to fill out the roster, all the while keeping the goal of adding at least 5 WAR to the team?

Well, here we are, my top highlight of the 2008 season. In third place was Chipper Jones and his quest for a .400 batting average that kept us all entertained well into June, and second place involved everyone, including the notoriously tough Phillies fans really pulling for Junior Griffey to hit that 600th home run. First place, however, is a no-brainer for me, and goes to CC Sabathia’s absolutely incredible performance this season. And I’m not just talking about his statistics in a Brewers uniform, but while with the Indians as well.

CC started the season rather poorly, as after four games, his numbers were: 18 IP, 32 H, 27 ER, 14 BB, 14 K, an OPS of 1.170, and a 13.50 ERA. Over his next 14 starts, all with the Indians, Sabathia allowed just 25 earned runs, two less than his total in the initial four. He walked just 20 while striking out 109 and allowing only 85 hits in 104.1 innings. This resulted in a .591 OPS against and a 2.16 ERA. It is irresponsible and incorrect to ignore his atrocious first four starts, but he managed to put together a tremendous 14-start stretch before even landing a plane ticket to Milwaukee.

Following the trade with the Brewers, Sabathia had a somewhat wild first start in the senior circuit but followed it up with three straight complete games, one of which was a shutout. In these three starts, he amassed 27 innings, allowed just 15 hits and three earned runs, walked just three hitters and struck out 26 of them. All told, in 17 starts with the Brewers, he threw seven complete games, produced a K/BB ratio above 5.0 (128/25), and a 1.65 ERA.

Put together, he made 35 starts, threw 253 innings, walked 59, fanned 251, and surrendered 2.70 earned runs per nine innings. In case you are curious just how good he was following those four atrocious starts to begin the year–or just how bad those four starts were–here are his stats from starts #5-35: 235 IP, 191 H, 45 BB, 237 K, .570 OPS, 1.88 ERA, 5.27 K/BB, 2.45 FIP. Again, it is incorrect to ignore those starts, but this what Sabathia did from the end of April until the end of the season. He virtually willed the Brewers into the playoffs, and made four straight starts to close out the season on three days rest. His numbers in that span? 28.2 IP, 24 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 26 K, 1.88 ERA.

With the Brewers, he surrendered 4 ER just once, never venturing higher than that number. Three earned runs were allowed twice; Two earned runs on four occasions; 1 earned run six times; and no earned runs in four different starts. That is domination. His lowest game score was 43 and he produced a game score of 70+ in seven of 17 starts for the Brewers. I have never followed a pitcher, or watched each of his starts, for a team other than my own, except for Greg Maddux prior to this season. From the time Sabathia joined the Brewers, though, I found myself tuning into each and every one of his starts, growing more and more impressed with each passing pitch. His tremendous season, especially with Milwaukee, is my top highlight of the 2008 season.

CC Sabathia continued his National League dominance yesterday with a one-hit shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hit, which came in the fifth inning, was a little squibber back to the mound off the bat of recently acquired Andy LaRoche. Sabathia left the mound and went to make the seemingly routine play, but bobbled the ball and decided any further effort would be futile. The official scorer ruled the squibber a hit, and CC could no longer pitch a no-hitter.

In watching the replay several times, I firmly believe that if Sabathia fielded the ball cleanly he would have thrown LaRoche out. If Andy clearly would have beaten the throw regardless of the bobble, then I am definitely in favor of ruling the play a hit, but the bobble did seem to prevent Sabathia from completing the play.

Following the game, Brewers skipper Ned Yost looked livid as he lambasted the Pirates’ scorer for ruling the ball a hit. I thought it was such a peculiar response given that CC just pitched a one-hitter and the team had a great game. Then, a couple of hours later, the ESPN bottom line informed me that the Brewers plan on protesting the call to get it changed to an error. Their hope, I guess, is that the protest is upheld, the hit becomes an error, and Sabathia magically has a no-hitter.

While I mentioned earlier that I agree the play probably deserved an error as he would have thrown the baserunner out had he not bobbled the ball, I am almost as livid as Yost that they would even attempt this ridiculous move. You cannot just change the past without considering actions from that step forward. Say Sabathia does get charged with an error there… it does not guarantee that the rest of the game plays out exactly the way it did. Perhaps the next inning he gives up a double and a home run. Perhaps he pulls his groin and has to leave the game in the seventh inning. Perhaps the pressure of sustaining a no-hitter would mount and get to CC; or, adversely, perhaps the Pirates hitters would “try harder” in an attempt to avoid being no-hit.

The possibilities are endless, but the point remains that you cannot just magically change one event in a game after the fact and expect that everything else would remain the same. Those who saw that Ashton flick know what I’m talking about. This is very similar to when announcers allude to the fact that if a certain run scored earlier in the game, their team would lead by two instead of one going into the ninth; as if they think everything else would have remained the same. What if that run did score earlier, and led to a big rally? Or, what if the run did score, and then the opposition came out and scored four of their own.

All of these are hypotheticals, but they all point to the fact that you simply cannot change what you do not know. You cannot change the call from hit to an error and then award Sabathia a no-hitter because you have no idea exactly what would have happened from that point on had the ruling been different. Maybe it would have stayed the same, but since we do not know it would not be prudent to guess. I’m sure this protest will be denied, as I’m not the only one who will find it ridiculous, but is this really what the Brewers are concerned about at this point?

Or, maybe they are just taking the Michael Jordan approach right now… you know, where MJ used to get so bored that he would stir something up or purposely take a facial gesture the wrong way to motivate himself. Maybe the Brewers are so used to Sabathia dominating the NL already and are bored by it that they need to find a way to keep the themselves pumped up. I honestly have no idea, but I do know that attempting to get a hit from the fifth inning turned into an error in order to give someone a no-hitter, after the fact, even though nobody knows what would have happened from that point on, is utterly ridiculous.

After receiving a late May call to the bigs last year, Brewers 3B Ryan Braun went on an absolute tear, taking home Rookie of the Year hardware in the process. 112 games into his second season it does not appear that he has fallen victim to the ever heralded “sophomore slump.” In fact, take a look at his two seasons, side by side (or on top of one another) as he has had virtually the same amount of opportunities:

2007: 113 GP, 146-451, 26 2B, 6 3B, 34 HR, 29 BB, 112 K, .324/.370/.634
2008: 112 GP, 138-460, 31 2B, 6 3B, 30 HR, 26 BB, 99 K, .300/.339/.589

With roughly two months remaining he should easily surpass his counting stats from the tremendous rookie campaign. Interestingly enough, due to the season-long success of the Cubs, the early struggles of the Brewers, and outside factors such as acquiring CC Sabathia, there are plenty of knowledgable baseball fans out there unaware that Braun is having this good of a season. His 30 home runs ranks third in baseball behind just Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn, and his WPA/LI of 2.74 checks in ninth in the senior circuit.

He didn’t walk much last year and is doing so even less this year—seventh lowest BB-rate at 5.3%—but at least his frequency of strikeouts has decreased a bit. Due to his lack of free passes, his OBP is not very high relative to his batting average; doubly so it means his slugging percentage would need to be very high to result in the ninth best OPS in the national league. Sure enough, his slugging percentage ranks sixth best and his isolated power of .289 ranks fifth best.

Using the in-season Marcel, he is projected to finish the season hitting .310/.368/.572, with 11 doubles and 12 home runs. The reliability or accuracy of his projection is not going to be as high as others, however, given that this is his second year. Regardless, this would put him at .303/.358/.584 in his sophomore season. Stack up his first two years:

2007: 113 GP, .324/.370/.634, 1.004 OPS, 26 2B, 34 HR
2008: 156 GP, .303/.348/.584, .932 OPS, 42 2B, 42 HR

Not too shabby for his first two years in the major leagues. He doesn’t walk much and is not a tremendous fielder, but the Hebrew Hammer can flat out rake.