Archive for Brewers

With Corey Koskie suffering from post-concussion syndrome, and the platoon of Craig Counsell/Tony Graffanino not producing, the Brewers brought up Ryan Braun last May hoping he could quell any or all of their hot corner problems. The prospect with the nickname “The Hebrew Hammer”—odd, that’s Gabe Kapler’s nickname as well—did not disappoint, posting incredibly gaudy numbers in just 113 games. He would win the Rookie of the Year award and, by all accounts, had one of the best offensive rookie seasons in the history of the game.

In it, he posted a slash line of .324/.370/.634, with an 153 OPS+, 26 doubles, 6 triples, and 34 home runs. Remember, too, that his season did not begin until May 24th.

He has gotten off to a slow start this year, hitting .275/.306/.463, with an OPS+ of just 99, 13 doubles, and 5 home runs. Coming into the season the projection systems did not have much to work with, as he only played most of one season, but all saw him finishing the season with an OPS of at least .829; it is currently .769. Those with OPS counts in a similar range: Jeff Keppinger (.770), Ian Kinsler (.773).

***Actually, and I only leave this in because it helps prove a small sample size point, but this article was written seemingly before Braun’s stats from yesterday updated; with his game yesterday, some of the numbers change. Due to his two home run performance, his OPS jumped from .769 to .814. And, for anyone wondering, Kinsler went up to .793 while Keppinger skyrocketed to .800.***

MGL recently posted a study that takes a look at what hot or cold April’s tell us about hitters. He finds that those who started off slow essentially finished the year with their projected OPS; while this does not necessarily relate to Braun in the sense that those used in the study had OPS counts under .500, I think the above mention of his OPS jump illustrates how hot or cold starts can be very deceiving and not necessarily indicative at all of what to expect. His numbers still aren’t where they were last year but that does not mean they will not be by the end of the year.

Using the stats we have for this season, let’s try to deduce what Braun is doing differently this year, if anything, or if this is all just the work of evil small sample sizes.

Looking at his swing data, he is making contact much more than he did last year. Despite swinging at about five percent less pitches in the strike zone he is making contact over six percent more often. Additionally, he is swinging at over four percent more pitches outside of the strike zone but making contact three percent more often. As we would intuitively expect following such a tremendous season, he is seeing less pitches in the strike zone. While I will need to do a full Pitch F/X study on him to see what he’s doing with these pitches outside of the zone, one possibility is that he simply isn’t connecting as well to them.

Another area to explore involves his BABIP and rates of balls in play. He is hitting more line drives this year, going from 16% to 18%; his grounders have gone from 38.8% to 32.8%; and his flyballs have jumped from 44.9% to 49.2%. Last year, his xBABIP would have been somewhere in the .280-.286 range; it ended up at .367. This year, though, they are within reason; his current BABIP of .313 comes pretty darn close to his expected .306 clip.

Another interesting aspect of the Hebrew Hammer (Braun, not Kapler) is his walks deficiency. He walked just 6% of the time last year, resulting in a BB/K of 0.26; that 0.26 would have been the seventh worst had he garnered enough plate appearances to truly qualify. This year he is walking just 4.4% of the time and, despite reducing his K-rate by about four percent, his BB/K of 0.23 currently ranks as the eighth worst.

This is essentially just a recap of what he has been doing this year as compared to last, and it seems that a few of the aforementioned factors are contributing to his “slow” start. Then again, as MGL and Braun’s performance yesterday showed, things can quickly change. For the sake of Braun and Brewers fans everywhere, I hope in August, when Braun smacks dingers #42-43 we can revisit this article and go “Jeez, what the heck was Seidman talking about!?”

The Milwaukee Brewers optioned Dave Bush to their AAA Nashville club this week following an 0-3 start with a 6.75 ERA. This irked many in the statistical community, especially MGL, because not only is Bush pitching better than the barometric numbers indicate, he is pitching right on par with normal #3 or #4 starters.

The problem, after looking into it more, is not necessarily that Bush’s optioning stems from his slow start but that it may have to do with his Jekyll-like transformation once runners get on base. In 1649 career PA, batters are posting a .253/.307/.420 clip against Bush while the bases are empty. When occupied, though, this jumps to .314/.355/.546 in 1121 PA. Despite these numbers, if the decision to option Bush stemmed from a kneejerk reaction to a small sample size, this argument does not even hold water.

This year, with 57 PA, opponents are hitting .320/.404/.560 with the bases empty. In 47 PA, they are hitting just .263/.340/.368 with runners on base. In the early going he has allowed a higher percentage of runners to reach base but has actually reduced his slash line once they get to their respective bases.

Ned Yost attributed the move to control issues. In his four 2008 starts, Bush has thrown 57.6% of his pitches for strikes. In 2007 he threw 65.6% strikes out of 2972 pitches. In 2006 he threw 66.4% strikes out of 3021 pitches. He has thrown a lower percentage of strikes, putting himself into more “Hafta’ Counts” and forcing himself to pitch from behind. The Brewers had a pitching surplus entering the season, often fostering rumors of trading Bush and/or Claudio Vargas.

Seemingly happy with the production from Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra, the team felt they could handle letting Bush get his control back in a few minor league starts. The decision was definitely based off of a small sample size and, in that regard, makes little sense, but I hope they realize it is way too early to sell their stock on Bush.

In his inaugural post here Dave Cameron wrote about Gabe Kapler’s return to the major leagues and how his production had more than made up for slow starts from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Last night, Kapler again came through as his 12th inning heroics propelled the Brewers to a walk-off victory against the Cardinals. With one out and the score tied at eight, Gabe Gross walked and promptly stole second off of Jason Isringhausen. Kapler lined a single to centerfield allowing Gross to race home with the winning run. Thrilled with Gross’s efforts to get into scoring position the Brewers quickly traded him to the Rays following the game. “Some day,” Gross remarked.

In a game where both managers utilize the pitcher batting eighth strategy, convention goes by the wayside before the first pitch is even thrown; however, this game had a number of odd occurrences. For starters, Albert Pujols made his first-ever major league appearance at second base when Cesar Izturis left the game. Apparently, Pujols lobbied Tony LaRussa to let him play shortstop but had to settle for second base. He made two plays in the field: a forceout at second as well as catching the throw on Gross’s stolen base in the 12th.

As mentioned in the opening, two guys named Gabe won the game for the Brewers. This brought Gabe White to his feet.

A few days ago I wrote about Brian Shouse and his success in stranding runners. Well, Shouse entered the seventh inning last night with the bases loaded and allowed all three inherited runners to score as well as a run of his own. Thanks, Brian. Combine that with Corey Patterson’s results following Dave’s article and we might be in the midst of a Fangraphs Jinx.

Eric Gagne blew his fourth save in ten chances. This might not seem too odd to many people, though. This particular blown save could have been avoided if Rickie Weeks makes a better throw or Prince Fielder scoops up a ball in the dirt to complete a tailor-made double play.

Three starting pitchers pinch hit in this game: Adam Wainwright hit a sac fly, Braden Looper laid down a nice sac bunt, and Jeff Suppan popped up a bunt attempt. Additionally, reliever David Riske batted for himself, fouling out to the catcher with a runner on second in the sixth inning.

Seth McClung recorded the win after pitching in the 12th inning. The win is his first since September 20, 2006, when he was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. To see how topsy-turvy this game was check out the game graph:

The sixth and seventh innings are fun to look at in the graph; after the Brewers scored four runs in the bottom of the sixth the Cardinals responded with four of their own in the top of the seventh. In terms of WPA, Guillermo Mota and Kapler led the Brewers while Skip Schumaker and Ryan Franklin contributed the most to the Cardinals. Rick Ankiel and Isringhausen each finished at -.358.

From here, the Cardinals head to Pittsburgh to face Ian Snell while the Brewers host Cole Hamels and the Phillies. Based on the last two games for the Phillies and last night’s Brewers affair this has the makings for one wild series.

Brewers reliever Brian Shouse is a late bloomer. Graduating from Bradley University in 1990 he debuted in the big leagues with the Pirates in 1993 albeit for just six mostly ineffective games. For the better part of the 1993 season up until 2002, Shouse shuffled around farm systems, playing for minor league affiliates of the Pirates, Orioles, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Mets, Astros, and Royals. His only other major league experience came with the Red Sox in 1998 as he struggled in only seven appearances prior to a demotion to Pawtucket.

In 2002, nearly ten years after his major league debut, Shouse found himself appearing in 23 games for the Kansas City Royals. While the numbers were subpar–15 hits, 10 runs, and 9 walks in 14.1 innings—he has been on a major league roster ever since.

He was terrific out of the bullpen for the Rangers in 2003 and 2004, going for 105.1 IP in 115 games; he struck out 74 while walking 32 as well as posting a 3.08 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. After a shaky 2005 and just six games in 2006, Shouse was sent to the Brewers for Enrique Cruz and cash. Since arriving in Milwaukee he has been stellar and consistent out of the bullpen. In 2006 he stranded 42 of 56 inherited runners and allowed his own runs in just 10 of his 59 appearances. His ERA of 3.97 may not come off as flashy but specialist relievers can have their numbers vastly changed with one or two bad appearances; since they are usually only in for one out, giving up one run looks much worse in 0.1 IP as opposed to 1.0 IP. In fact, take away an August 29th outing against the Astros, wherein he surrendered four runs, and Shouse finishes 2006 with a 2.91 ERA for the Brewers, allowing just 25 percent of inherited runners to score.

In 2007, Shouse built on his success the previous season by posting this line: 73 G, 47.2 IP, 46 H, 16 ER, 14 BB, 32 K, 3.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. On top of that he he allowed just 18 of 78 inherited runners to score. Those numbers are a little skewed as well because eight of those 18 scored in Shouse’s final five appearances. Up until September 16th Shouse had stranded 58 of the 68 runners he inherited.

This year, Shouse has made eight appearances, allowing just one run and five baserunners in 6.1 innings. He has stranded all 11 inherited baserunners, with a .159 BABIP. Shouse truly makes the best of what he has to work with as he primarily throws a 79-80 mph fastball and a 72 mph slider.

His WPA of 0.34 comes down to a WPA/LI of 0.28 due to his appearances largely coinciding with baserunners allowed by other pitchers. Despite this, Shouse has allowed just 32 of 145 inherited runners to score throughout his Brewers tenure, just 22 percent. In fact, of non-closer relievers with at least 120 games in the span of 2006-2008, Shouse ranks tied for seventh in percentage of inherited runners scored. Not too shabby for a near 40-year old with just about 14 years of minor league experience.

Whether or not this will continue is left to be seen but this 39-yr old lefty who failed to find a secure major league home until the age of 35 is definitely doing all he can to show why he belongs.