Archive for carlos correa

Carlos Correa placed second last week on the trade-value list that Dave Cameron puts together every season. That placement seemed to surprise some, given that Correa is having a very good, but not great season. Correa’s 120 wRC+ is hardly spectacular, even if that number increases to 150 if you start with the latter part of May. He has improved over the last few months, but even with that improvement, the placement might seem high. What definitely seemed high was Correa’s ZiPS projections over the next five years, starting at 7.9 WAR next season and totaling more than 40 wins from ages 22 to 26. Cameron, too, was surprised, and in the comments, his explanation caught my eye:

I was shocked by the Correa forecast myself, and asked Dan to double check that there wasn’t an error in the code or something, given how bullish it is on Correa’s future. But Dan said the system just loves Correa, as the history of guys who can hit like this at 20/21 in the big leagues is almost universally fantastic. The age really is the key thing to keep in mind here; it’s easy to forget how big of a leap guys can make early on, and at 21, there’s still a lot of room for growth.

Carlos Correa is currently in the midst of his age-21 season, and he’s accumulated 820 career plate appearances. Over the last 100 years, only 59 players have received at least 800 plate appearances before the end of their age-21 season and then eventually made their way to a Hall of Fame ballot. One finds that — without regard for how they played or for how long — an astonishing 36% (21) of those players eventually made in the Hall Of Fame. If you move the bar up to 1,000 plate appearances, 21 of 44 players are in the Hall of Fame. Of more recent players, it looks like that trend might continue. Edgar Renteria, Starlin Castro, and Elvis Andrus probably will not make the Hall of Fame and Justin Upton and Jason Heyward have a ways to go, while Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, and Andruw Jones all have at least decent statistical cases.

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2015 was an unquestionably special year in baseball: we witnessed teams that hadn’t made the postseason in 20 years break through the barrier, saw latent fanbases reborn, and finally, after falling just short in 2014, a magic-fueled, unconventional team won the World Series. Because of a mixture of player development trends and incredible fortune, we also saw something exceedingly rare: the best positional rookie class in the past century. The likes of Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Matt Duffy, and many others announced their arrival with exceptional first-year performances, taking the league by storm and bringing about a new golden age for young, ultra-talented position players.

We’ve stated many times how much better the 2015 rookie positional class was than any other in the past hundred years. The fact bears repeating again because of its magnitude. Below you’ll find a chart showing the average Wins Above Replacement for positional rookies for a full season of plate appearances (600 PAs) from 1920 to 2015:

As we can see, no other season is close to 2015. There are a few reasons for that, reasons that are complex and outside the particular scope of this article. For now, this should serve as background for what we’re discussing today: how sophomore/follow-up seasons compare to great rookie campaigns. We’ll be focusing specifically on the years that followed Rookie of the Year campaigns to try to discern whether a “sophomore slump” occurred among the league’s best first-year players, and we’ll also bring in the 2016 projections for our exceptional crop of 2015 rookies to look at next year’s expected performance.

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The 2015 season has been chock-full of high-profile rookie debuts. From Kris Bryant to Corey Seager to Noah Syndergaard, I’ve certainly had no shortage of players to write about. But the most impressive rookie campaign — at least on a per-game basis — might very well belong to Carlos Correa, who’s developing into a superstar right before our eyes. Although he’s completed just his age-20 season, Correa’s been one of the best better hitters in the game since the Astros called him up on June 8th. His 133 wRC+ was the 28th best among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances this year, and second best among rookies, trailing only Kris Bryant. By the barometer of WAR per 150 games, Correa ranked 21st in baseball with mark of 5.2.

You probably didn’t need me to tell you that Carlos Correa’s been really good. This isn’t exactly news. So rather than dwelling on how good Correa is now, I want to consider what his impressive rookie campaign means for his short- and long-term future.

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The Houston Astros grabbed all of our attentions a couple of weeks ago, when they rattled off 10 wins in a row and vaulted to the top of the American League West. They’ve cooled off quite a bit since, going 3-6 since that streak. Yet, despite their recent struggles, they had built up enough of a cushion to maintain a .618 winning percentage and a four-game lead over the second place Angels. Not bad for a team that lost 111 games just two seasons ago.

The Astros have a very good record, and a decent shot at making the playoffs (45% by our calculator), but their roster isn’t without holes. And perhaps none of these holes is bigger than the one at shortstop. Currently, the Astros are employing Marwin Gonzalez as their primary shortstop, with a little bit of Jonathan Villar on the side. To date, these two have wRC+s of 68 and 30, respectively, and have contributed a total of -0.5 WAR.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The Astros signed Jed Lowrie to a three-year contract back in December to play shortstop, but he lasted all of three weeks before landing on the shelf with a thumb injury. As of this writing, Lowrie’s on the 60-day DL and isn’t expected to return until sometime after the All-Star break.

Gonzalez and Vilar are unlikely to contribute much value for the Astros going forward. And, given the nature of Lowrie’s injury, it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll be of much use in the season’s second half. The immediate future looks pretty bleak for the Astros at short, but help is on the way. The Astros promoted top prospect Carlos Correa to Triple-A on Tuesday, putting him just a step away from the big leagues.

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The Houston Astros entered the season with a weak minor league system and I ranked it 27th overall (out of 30) back in March 2012. Since that time, though, General Manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff have worked hard to improve the system through trades – and at times getting back impressive value for modest MLB talent – while also having one of the best amateur drafts of any team in baseball. The result is a much-improved system that boasts more depth, as well as a number of high-ceiling prospects. The list below was fairly straight forward for me 1-8 but then got muddied with 12 to 15 prospects in play for the finally seven available spots with the 9-15 slots. Players considered in that range, that did not make the list, included the likes of Domingo Santana, Jonathan Villar, Nolan Fontana, Marc Krauss and Kevin Comer.

#1 Jonathan Singleton (1B)

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2011 trade (with Houston)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Singleton was the key prospect in the trade-deadline deal that sent Hunter Pence to Philadelphia in 2011. The deal also brought in fellow Top 15 prospect and pitcher Jarred Cosart, as well as outfielder Domingo Santana who just missed the list. Singleton has moved methodically through the system since the trade and spent all of 2012 in double-A where he posted a 146 wRC+ (i.e. he created 46 more runs than the average hitter in the league).

Singleton has impressive power and he showed that in 2012 by breaking the .200 isolated slugging mark for the first time in his career at .213. (Anything over .200 suggests the player is a “slugger.”) He also showed patience and a solid eye with a walk rate just shy of 16%. The big knock on Singleton throughout his career has been his propensity to strike out and 2012 was no different; he whiffed at a rate of 23.6%. A contact I spoke with said he was not worried with the strikeout rate because Singleton offsets it with power and high walk rates. “It’s not a major concern,” he said.

The contact said Singleton definitely has above-average power, and placed a future 60 grade on it, but would almost rate his hit tool above it. “It has a little length but it’s a pretty swing,” he said, adding that the 21-year-old can handle balls on both the inside and outside corners,thanks to above-average plate coverage. “It makes him very dangerous.”

Although he’s mostly been known in the past for his offensive exploits, the contact I spoke with said Singleton has the chance to be a plus defender. Previously, in an effort to find a place for his bat to play with Ryan Howard entrenched in Philly, the prospect had been given time in left field despite being a natural first baseman. Singleton will remain at first base for Houston. “He’s really plus at first base,” the talent evaluator said, adding that he has long arms and legs, stretches well, with good hands. “He creates a big target.”

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Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). After writing the first three lists, I realized there’s really no way to keep statistical information out of the equation completely and focus on scouting/projection alone. This has caused me to hedge my bets a bit on high ceiling talents and focus more on the complete player. Additionally, understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.

Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
The Second Basemen
The Third Basemen

1. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

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It’s draft day.

The first round (and supplemental 1st) is scheduled for tonight, beginning at 7 p.m. EST, and the next 39 rounds will be on Tuesday, June 5 (rounds two through 15) and Wednesday, June 6 (rounds 16 through 40), beginning at noon EST on both days. I’ll be live blogging the first round of the draft beginning at 7 p.m. eastern.

It’s pretty much a forgone conclusion that Houston will take Stanford right-hander Mark Appel with the first overall selection. After that, though, there are still plenty of rumors flying around. Below is my best educated guess on how the first round will play out, based on industry rumours and discussions with baseball officials and scouts. I recently wrote a post detailing my personal draft board.

1. Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford U

2. Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton, OF, Georgia HS

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Major League Baseball’s 2012 amateur draft is less than a week away. The first round is scheduled for June 4, beginning at 7 p.m. EST, and the next 39 rounds will be on June 5 (rounds two through 15) and June 6 (rounds 16 through 40), beginning at noon EST on both days.

The draft will be interesting for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the overall talent is considered one of the weakest in recent memory; second, new rules have been implemented by MLB in an effort to control draft spending. Among many other changes, each team will be given a pool of money to spend (based on the number and position of their picks) and penalties can be assessed for exceeding the “recommended” funds.

Because teams are limited by the amount of money they can spend, you’re likely to see a lot of good prep players, who are not consensus first-round talents, head to college because they won’t be able to sign above-slot deals after being selected later in the draft, like in the past. As well, junior college enrollement could skyrocket because that route allows players to re-enter the draft after just one year, rather than wait three seasons with the four-year college route.

Below is my take on the first round selections. It is not a guess of what teams will do; it’s a ranking of what I would do if I were running the draft war room for each team. I drafted without considering each club’s willingness to spend money on the draft, and I looked to take who I considered the best player available — based on scouting reports, word of mouth and first-hand observation.

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