Archive for Chris Carter

In Major League Baseball, the market tends to correct itself as clubs gain greater knowledge of players and their value. If aging players are less successful, the market for that group might slow a bit. Bullpen arms become more or less desirable depending on their scarcity. Increased revenues tend to move everyone up the pay scale. It is important to understand how and when to make adjustments in value as run-scoring environments, finances, and aging patterns change.

That is all well and good for those who run organizations and those who follow the game closely, but the arbitration process is much less nuanced. The non-tendering of contracts to Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter, along with the trade of Mark Trumbo, are all the result of a failure to adjust — within the arbitration process, specifically — as the market slowly corrects for the overpayment of defensively- (and sometimes offensively-) limited home run hitters whose overall effectiveness has dimmed.

The arbitration process tends to favor the traditional stats that place like FanGraphs have tried to de-emphasize. Closers get big paydays in arbitratio, regardless of overall performance. As a result, the St. Louis Cardinals opted to let Steve Cishek go instead of moving to arbitration where he would receive a salary of around $7 million. Home runs and RBI tend to get paid as well, causing an overpayment for those players who rack up those numbers, but have big deficiencies in other areas.

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For patient sluggers, strikeouts are a necessary byproduct of an approach designed to draw walks and hit home runs. We are well past the point of ridiculing strikeouts as bad when there are tangible trade-offs in on-base percentage and slugging. Those trade-offs are generally good for the player, but for players like Chris Carter this season, the three-true-outcome approach can go very wrong if the power drops or if the (relatively few) balls in play are not falling. For Chris Carter, a drop in both power and BABIP has resulted in a below replacement-level season despite leading the the league in Three True Outcomes.

Trying to get walks and home runs is generally a good strategy for hitters. Adding strikeouts to the mix is fine as evidenced by the leaders in Three True Outcome percentage (HR+K+BB/PA) below: Read the rest of this entry »

Former Braves and current Yankees “prospect” Cody Johnson blasted the longest home run I’ve ever seen. In 2008, it came against St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Maikel Cleto (A Mets prospect at the time). Johnson turned on a 95 MPH fastball at the letters, and in turn, seared an “80 power” grade into my mind for eternity. At the time, I wasn’t really concerned about the metrics behind actually producing to the home run equivalent “80 power” (38+ home runs at the Major League level), but neither were scouting contacts. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention as his K%, 34.4%, made it impossible to project elite power from any prospect.

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General Manager: Billy Beane
Farm Director: Billy Owens
Scouting Director: Eric Kubota

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

1. Chris Carter, 1B, Triple-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 15th round – Nevada HS (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

If you want to dream on a power prospect, Carter is your man. He has Ryan Howard-like power potential, although there are concerns over his lack of contact and high strikeout numbers. Carter is likely a .250-.270 hitter in the Majors (His .337 average in double-A was aided by a .406 BABIP). His strikeout rate in double-A was 24.3% in ’09. On the plus side, he also had an ISO rate of .238, an OPS of 1.1011 and a walk rate of 13.8%. Although the 6’4” 210 lbs first baseman is not swift-of-foot, he is a smart base runner who nabbed 13 bags in 18 tries. Daric Barton is Carter’s biggest “roadblock” to the first base job in Oakland; although he’s far from a five-tool player, the prospect is a better all-around player than Jake Fox or Jack Cust.

2. Michael Taylor, OF, Triple-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Stanford University (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Obtained from the Phillies, via the Blue Jays during the Roy Halladay musical chairs, the organization gave up a more promising bat (Brett Wallace) for the better all-around player in Taylor. Oakland has a lot of outfield depth with the likes of Travis Buck, Eric Patterson, Rajai Davis, and Ryan Sweeney, but none of those players can match Taylor’s potential. He’s also MLB ready, so he could step into a full-time or platoon gig in April. Taylor, 24, had a solid ’09 season in double-A where he hit .333/.408/.569 in 318 at-bats. He displayed a reasonable walk rate at 9.6% and kept his strikeout rate below 20% (16.0%) while maintaining excellent power (.236 ISO). Taylor also added 18 steals in 22 tries. Promoted to triple-A, he hit .282/.359/.491 with a .209 ISO in 110 at-bats. Taylor possesses a strong arm and can play both outfield corners, although he sees most of his time in left field.

3. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Weeks battled through injuries in ’09 and appeared in just 80 games. The second baseman opened his season with a power burst that was unsustainable and probably a fluke. He posted a .169 ISO in his first 50 games with high-A (all seven of his homers came in his first 97 at-bats) before moving up to double-A where he posted an ISO rate of .105, which was more in line with his debut (.108 ISO in ’08). A switch-hitter, Weeks performed much better against right-handed pitchers in ’09 with an OPS of .899 vs .615 against southpaws. Defensively, the 23 year old is athletic with a strong arm, but he makes some careless errors.

4. Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Triple-A
DOB: October 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 supplemental 1st round – Florida HS (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an up-and-down season for the 22-year-old Cardenas. He received a quick promotions to triple-A in ’09 but struggled by hitting .175 in May and was sent back to double-A, where he set the world on fire by hitting .326/.392/.446 in 325 at-bats. Moved back up to triple-A in August, he posted a line of .287/.354/.396 in August and .340/.392/.532 in September. In the lower minors, the prospect showed the ability to steal 15-20 bases but he hasn’t topped eight steals in the past two seasons. Cardenas’ bat will have to carry him as he is an average fielder at best at the keystone. A permanent spot at third base could be in the cards, but his power output is below average for the position. The former Phillies draft pick should be ready for the Majors right about the time Mark Ellis‘ contract expires.

5. Tyson Ross, RHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – University of California
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, cutter, change-up

If you love ground-ballers like we do at Fangraphs, then you’ll want to meet Ross. The right-hander posted a 56.6% ground-ball rate on the season, including a 61.9 GB% in 66.3 double-A innings. Just 22, Ross is a promising pitcher despite a modest strikeout rate in double-A (8.55 in high-A, 5.58 K/9 in double-A). His fastball can touch the mid-90s so the strikeouts should come once he improves his secondary pitches. He also needs to improve his command and control a bit after posting a walk rate of 3.48 on the seasons. Ross allowed 10 homers in high-A (1.04 HR/9) despite his impress ground-ball numbers. If his secondary pitches don’t improve, he could become a dominating late-game reliever with his sinking fastball.

6. Pedro Figueroa, LHP, High-A
DOB: November 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Figueroa was not on the watch list when the season began but quickly jumped onto it. A little older than most prospects in low-A at 23, the southpaw posted a solid strikeout rate of 8.13 K/9 at the junior level while showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.23 BB/9. Moved up to high-A for 11 starts, Figueroa’s walk rate jumped to 4.80 BB/9 but his strikeouts also increased to 9.18 K/9. Overall, he allowed 151 hits in 152.0 innings of work, while producing a respectable ground-ball rate of 46.2%. Because he’s now 24, Oakland could be aggressive with Figueroa and move him up to double-A despite his control issues.

7. Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Injured
DOB: February 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, curveball, change-up

One of the key players in the Nick Swisher trade with the White Sox, De Los Santos made just five starts with Oakland’s system in ’08 before going down with a major injury. He returned in ’09 to make seven rehab starts in rookie ball and he showed his fastball of old, but his secondary pitches are still being worked back in. The right-hander has the potential of a No. 2 starter if he can harness his breaking ball and change-up but he could also develop into a dominating reliever. We’ll know a lot more about De Los Santos’ potential as the season progresses. If healthy, he should opened the season in high-A ball.

8. Sean Doolittle, 1B, Triple-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – University of Virginia
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Doolittle was yet another prospect bitten by the injury bug in ’09. He started the year in triple-A and was just a quick phone call away from making the Majors before knee problems (and surgery) ended his season. When everything is clicking for Doolittle, he is a .280-.300 hitter with 15-20 homer potential. He has always displayed good walk rates (12.4% in ’09) but he strikes out a bit too much for his power output (21.9%). An above-average defender at first base, Doolittle was moved to right field (Thanks to the presence of Chris Carter) where he is average.

9. Shane Peterson, OF, Double-A
DOB: February 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Long Beach State University (St. Louis)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Acquired in last season’s Matt Holliday trade with St. Louis, Peterson projects to be an average MLB player mainly due to the fact that he possesses below-average power for his best positions (corner outfield, first base). The prospect is actually similar to fellow left-handed hitting Sean Doolittle in the sense that he projects to hit 10-15 homers with a batting average between .270 and .300. After struggling against southpaws in ’08, Peterson rebounded to post a line of .302/.348/.430 against them in ’09. The 22-year-old hitter has more speed than Doolittle and he nabbed 16 bags in 17 tries in ’09.

10. Josh Donaldson, C, Double-A
DOB: December 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round pick – Auburn University (Chicago NL)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Part of the loot for Rich Harden during an ’08 trade with the Chicago Cubs, Donaldson has seen his value improve significantly since joining his new organization. At the time of the trade, Donaldson was hitting .217/.276/.349 in low-A ball. He was immediately promoted to high-A with Oakland and finished the year with a line of .330/.391/.564 in 188 at-bats. He continued to hit well in ’09 despite being moved up to double-A and he produced a triple-slash line of .270/.379/.415 in 455 at-bats. Although he posted a 20.2% strikeout rate, Donaldson also walked at a rate of 14.8%, good for a BB/K rate of 0.87. He’s shown flashes of solid power, but he’s more of a line-drive hitter and he had an ISO rate of .145 in ’09. Donaldson has the tools to be an average big league backstop, although he’s still working on his receiving. He threw out 40% of base stealers last season.

Up Next: The San Diego Padres

First base has been a sore spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks organization for quite some time – especially in terms of power productions – and 2009 has been no different. The position has seen a number of players attempt to secure the full-time job but no one has been able to provide even league-average offense. The road to first base is littered with players such as Chad Tracy, Josh Whitesell, and Tony Clark.

The organization will now give rookie Brandon Allen a shot at the job. The big, sturdy prospect was acquired from the Chicago White Sox back on July 7. The American League club received reliever Tony Pena in return. Allen is actually the second first-base prospect that the club has received from Chicago in the past 24 months. The Diamondbacks dealt outfielder Carlos Quentin to the White Sox on Dec. 3, 2007 in exchange for Chris Carter. Carter spent only 11 days in the organization, though, before he was flipped to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal. Still with the Athletics organization, Carter is currently hitting .335/.434/.570 with 65 extra-base hits and 98 RBI in 481 double-A at-bats at the age of 22.

It’s a shame that the Diamondbacks organization was unable to hold on to Carter, but Allen represents another intriguing first-base prospect. The 23-year-old was originally selected out of a Texas high school in the fifth round of the 2004 amateur draft. It took about three seasons for him to get his feet underneath him. His career began to take off with a solid low-A ball season in 2007. Allen then followed that up with a monster year that saw him slam 29 homers between high-A and double-A.

This year, Allen began the season back in double-A. Although his power numbers were supressed a bit in Birmingham (His ISO dropped from .200+ to .162), the slugger hit for a higher average, he trimmed about 6% off his K rate (to 19.5%) and he continued to take a healthy number of walks. Once traded to the Arizona organization, Allen’s power returned and he slammed 12 homers in 142 triple-A at-bats (.324 ISO). He also maintained his improved batting average and plate rates. Although the left-handed hitter has struggled against southpaws in the past, he hit .317 against them in the minors this season and did not embarrass himself last year, either.

Allen is bound to have some ups and downs throughout the final weeks of the 2009 season, but he represents the best in-house option at the first-base position in 2010. With a little patience, he could become an above-average power source for the club. The power output would be a welcomed sight, as the club has only had two seasons in which its first basemen topped 20 home runs in its 12-year history: 1998, Travis Lee (22 homers) and 2005, Tony Clark (30) and Chad Tracy (27), although the latter also spent 51 games in the outfield.

Hitting prospects love to play in the Double-A Texas League. The league is a hitter’s haven and a number of the cities boast some of the best parks in all of minor league baseball for hitting; it also doesn’t hurt that most clubs don’t have to worry about cold weather in April. Right now, 29 batters in the Texas League are hitting .300 or higher. Seventeen of those hitters are at .340 or more.

The Texas League can turn suspects into prospects (for a brief time). We are also still dealing with small sample sizes this early in the season, so we cannot get too ahead of ourselves. Let’s pull out a few names from the 29 hot-hitting players in the Texas League and have a closer look at some of the prospects that came into the 2009 season with a scouting report that matches (or at least hinted to) their current offensive output.

Marcus Lemon has the most obscure profile of the five players we’re looking at, although he is no stranger to the game as the son of former Tigers outfielder Chet Lemon. The younger, fresher Lemon is a shortstop who is enjoying his time in Frisco with a line of .409/.458/.545. That puts him fourth in the league in batting average. In 44 at-bats, he’s struck out just four times (also with four walks). Last season, Lemon hit .295/.374/.434 with 30 doubles and 12 stolen bases in High-A ball. With all the talent in the Texas system, and all eyes on fellow prospect Elvis Andrus, it’s easy for a promising (but not-so-flashy) player like Lemon, one of the youngest players in Double-A at 20, to get lost in the crowd. He could be a very solid shortstop in the Majors or a top-flight utility player. He’s not going to be manning shortstop in Texas anytime soon, though.

Catcher Mitch Canham was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft because of his offensive reputation. He certainly has not disappointed; it took him just two years to make it to Double-A, where he is currently hitting .324/.439/.412. Last season in High-A ball (at another good hitter’s park), Canham, 24, hit .285/.382/.434 with solid rates of 13.7 BB% and 17.5 K%. His current success is likely no fluke and he could earn a mid-season promotion to Triple-A if he shows enough improvement on the defensive side of his game. The current platoon in San Diego of Nick Hundley and Henry Blanco does not provide much of a roadblock.

Daryl Jones broke out in a big way in 2008. The St. Louis Cardinals’ outfield prospect was drafted because of his athletic ability but no one knew exactly when (or if) he would translate those skills to the baseball diamond. Well, it happened in High-A ball last season and it’s continuing on into Double-A early in 2009. The 21-year-old prospect is currently hitting .303/.415/.455 in 33 at-bats. So far, he’s making a little more contact at the plate with his strikeout rate dropping from 24.2 K% in 2008 to 15.2 K% in 2009. Jones has a nice mix of speed and developing power, which could debut in St. Louis in 2010 if he continues to build upon the success he’s shown in the past year.

Adrian Cardenas is the first of two offensive-minded Oakland prospects that we’re going to look at today, which is good news for the A’s, given that the club is one of the worst offensive teams in all of Major League Baseball right now. Cardenas, a second baseman who might play third or short in the Majors, received a 26-game taste of Double-A last season and enjoyed it. He also hit .307/.371/.441 in 261 High-A at-bats. This season, Cardenas, 21, is hitting .364/.417/.600 in 55 at-bats. He’s slugged eight doubles in 13 games and is showing a willingness to take a walk (with five). But he’s also struck out 10 times. If he keeps hitting like this, Oakland will likely be tempted to promote him aggressively.

Chris Carter is lucky to be on the list of players hitting .300, with a triple-slash line of .315/.385/.500. He might be a .300 hitter in a good park/league in the minors, but with a career strikeout rate of around 30 percent, he’s not going to do that in the Majors. The 22-year-old first baseman is currently riding a hot steak as he is 12-for-27 (.444) with 13 RBI in his last seven games. His home run output is down with one homer in 50 at-bats, but that’s OK. We know the power is there, especially after he slugged 39 homers last year. What Carter needs to work on is making more consistent contact after hitting .259 last year with 156 Ks. By getting fellow prospect Sean Doolittle (in Triple-A) playing time in the outfield, it signifies that the organization believes in Carter, because Doolittle is a superior fielder to the former White Sox draft pick who is less versatile.

It’s not often that a player with Chris Carter’s talent spends time with three clubs in the span of two weeks. With 39 dingers, the hulking infielder tied for second overall in minor league home runs in 2008 while playing for Oakland’s High-A ball affiliate in Stockton.

Carter, now 21, was originally drafted in the 15th round of the 2005 draft out of a Las Vegas high school. He spent three seasons in the White Sox organization before being sent to Arizona on Dec. 3, 2007 for fellow slugger Carlos Quentin. Eleven days later, Carter was part of the bounty that netted Arizona pitcher Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics.

In his first full season in the minors in 2007, after two Rookie ball campaigns, Carter slugged 25 homers, drove in 93 runs and hit .291/.383/.522. His power numbers took another step forward this season with the Oakland organization, including an ISO increase from .231 to .310, while some of his other numbers took a step back. Carter hit .259/.361/.569 with 156 strikeouts and 77 walks in 506 at-bats. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in 2007 to 30.8% in 2008, while his walk rate remained roughly the same. Carter’s batting average was a bit of a disappointment but his BABIP was .296, compared to .336 in 2007.

Oakland has another first base prospect, Sean Doolittle, who played most of the season on the same squad as Carter, before a late-season promotion to Double-A. Carter spent time at third base to accommodate his teammate but his defence is below average at both third base (41 games, 14 errors) and first base.

Doolittle, a slick fielder, is not a classic slugger like Carter and is more of a hitter in the mold of John Olerud or Lyle Overbay. The two players should open 2009 on the same team again and it will be interesting to see which player takes the next big step needed to secure a future role on the big league club.