Archive for Colby Rasmus

Since this decade began, the home-run leaders among players who’ve recorded at least two-thirds of their games in center field are (in order) Adam Jones, Mike Trout, and Andrew McCutchen. Coming not too far after those three is Colby Rasmus, who’s authored 140 homers over the past seven seasons. Rasmus is coming off a pretty miserable 2016 season, during which he hit well below average while playing mostly in a left-field platoon before ending the season with a groin/hip injury that required surgery. As a result, the Houston Astros declined to make a qualifying offer to Rasmus like they did after his 25-homer, 117 wRC+ 2015 campaign, and the winter action on Rasmus seemed to match his own health: poor. The Tampa Bay Rays appear to have signed Rasmus for a very reasonable $5 million, with $2 million in incentives.

Coming up through the minors, Rasmus was at least a four-tool player, with maybe a knock on his ability to hit for average. While ranking him the third-best prospect in baseball ahead of the 2009 season, Baseball America had this to say about Rasmus’ tools and his future:

Rasmus oozes big league talent and exhibits fluid athleticism at the plate and in the field. He has a balanced, potent swing from the left side and his young frame has filled out with strength, which has begun to turn some of his ropes into the gaps into shots launched over the wall. As he showed in big league camp, Rasmus has the plate discipline to be a leadoff man when he arrives in the majors and the extra-base thump to mature into a middle-of-the-order hitter. The same plus speed and instincts he shows on the bases are even more apparent in center field, where he’s a defensive standout. His glove is good enough to keep him in the lineup even when he’s scuffling at the plate.

Eight seasons and four MLB teams later, Rasmus hasn’t lived up to his promise, but he has been a mostly productive player, putting up league-average hitting numbers to go along with solid baserunning and decent defense. His 18.5 career WAR isn’t a terrible outcome before age 30 for just about any prospect. Per 600 plate appearances, Rasmus has been worth 2.8 WAR during his career. Even with his disastrous 2016 season, he was a 2.9 WAR/600 player in his two years with Astros.

After a contact-heavy, low-power rookie season, Rasmus quickly morphed into the three-true-outcome player we see today. More than 40% of his plate appearances over the last seven years have ended as walks, strikeouts, or home runs. The strikeouts have especially been high the past few seasons. Since 2013, the only players to record as many plate appearances and a higher strikeout rate than Rasmus’ 30.8% mark are sluggers Chris Davis and Chris Carter. Those guys have hit for quite a bit more power than Rasmus, although Rasmus can still make himself valuable running the bases and on defense.

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Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Colby Rasmus, CF
It wasn’t the hugely successful rookie debut that many fans had hoped for, but Rasmus laid the groundwork for an excellent MLB career. In his rookie season in ’09, he hit .251/.307/.407 with an ISO of .156 in 474 at-bats. His walk rate was lower than he averaged in his minor league career at 7.1 BB%, but he kept the strikeouts in line at 20.0 K%. He was hurt by a .284 BABIP. Although Rasmus had a negative offensive value in ’09, he more than made up for that with his glove and ended up with a WAR of 2.3.

The Riser: Adron Chambers, OF
The speedy outfielder had a nice year in high-A ball by hitting .283/.370/.400 with 16 triples in 448 at-bats. The left-handed hitter needs to improve his base running after getting gunned down 12 times in 33 attempts. He showed a reasonable walk rate at 9.5 BB% but the strikeout rate was a little high (21.4%) for someone with an ISO .116. Chambers also posted a .600 OPS versus southpaws, compared to .830 versus right-handers. He’s raw, but Chambers has potential as a former 38th round draft pick (2007) out of Pensacola Junior College.

The Tumbler: Adam Ottavino, RHP
A former first round draft pick (2006) out of Northeastern University, Ottavino has had back-to-back disappointing seasons. The right-hander pitched in triple-A in ’09 and allowed 141 hits in 144.0 innings of work. His walk rate rose from 4.06 in ’08 to 5.13 BB/9 in ’09. On the plus side, his batting-average-against dropped from .290 to .258. Ottavino’s fastball ranges from 88-93 mph and he also utilizes a slider, curveball and change-up. His best bet for success in the Majors may be in the bullpen.

The ’10 Sleeper: Tyler Henley, OF
The 24-year-old Henley had some success at double-A in ’09 and he has shown solid overall numbers as a pro. The outfielder hit .303/.367/.482 in 423 at-bats. He also posted a .180 ISO and his strikeout rate was just 15.1 K%. If Henley can start putting a few more fly balls over the fence, then he could potentially see a few years as a Major League starting right fielder. More likely, he’ll be a solid fourth outfielder who can play center well enough to occasionally spell Colby Rasmus.

Bonus: Nick Additon, LHP
Additon was the Cardinals’ sleeper prospect during the ’08 series and he responded with a solid, albeit unspectacular, season. The southpaw allowed 69 hits in 79.1 high-A innings and 36 hits in 48.0 double-A innings. After his promotion, his strikeout rate dropped from 7.49 to 4.88 K/9, but his walk rate improved from 4.20 to 3.94 BB/9. Additon’s control had always been a plus prior to ’09, but it’s risen with each season. His repertoire is modest with an 86-88 mph fastball, slider and change-up.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the top rookies in Major League Baseball in an attempt to ascertain who is the most deserving candidate for Rookie of the Year in both the American and National Leagues. Today, we’ll take a look at five rookie hitters in the National League who have a solid chance at the Rookie of the Year award. On Monday, we looked at the top rookie hitters in the AL and we looked at the top rookie pitchers in the AL yesterday.

Chris Coghlan, LF/2B, Florida Marlins

Coghlan was originally recalled to help out as a utility player and part-time outfielder right around the time that top prospect Cameron Maybin was demoted to triple-A. The former full-time second baseman (and college third baseman) has turned into a full-time left fielder for the Florida Marlins and he is second in OPS (.786) amongst all National League rookies with 220 or more at-bats. The left-handed hitter is having a nice season after getting off to a slow start when he hit below .200 in May. Overall, Coghlan now has a line of .288/.369/.418 with six homers in 292 at-bats. Oddly, he’s hitting much better outside Florida, with a road average of .329, compared to a home average of .248. Although he’s done a nice job filling in at an unfamiliar position in 2009, Coghlan’s lack of power makes him much more suited to second base, which is the role he could fill in 2010 if the club finally cuts ties with incumbent (and expensive) Dan Uggla.

Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado Rockies

Fowler has more at-bats (345) than any other rookie in the NL this season. He also leads the youngsters in hits, doubles, runs scored, stolen bases, walks and strikeouts. Overall, the athletic outfielder is hitting .264/.362/.403 with 26 steals in 35 attempts. He has a solid walk rate of 13.8 BB% but his strikeout rate is alarmingly high at 28.1 K%. With his lack of power (.139 ISO), Fowler needs to trim his Ks. A switch-hitter, the 23-year-old Georgia native is hitting .301 versus southpaws but just .248 against right-handers. He has some work to do on his overall game, but Fowler is extremely intelligent and the sky is the limit for this rookie.

Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates organization was extremely cautious with McCutchen, a former first round pick (11th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2005. The right-handed hitter spent parts of three seasons in triple-A before receiving his first taste of MLB action in 2009. He was well-deserving of the promotion after hitting .303/.361/.493 with 10 steals in 49 games. At the MLB level, McCutchen, 22, has hit .293/.359/.488 with seven homers and 12 steals (in 13 attempts) in 246 at-bats. His walk rate is a little low for a top-of-the-order hitter at 8.9 BB% but he has a solid strikeout rate at 18.3 K%. Although his game is mostly built around his speed, McCutchen has shown more power this year (.195 ISO in 2009 vs .115 in 2008) and he has a healthy line-drive rate at 18.5%. Defensively, he plays a solid center field but he is still learning.

Gerardo Parra, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Early on in his career, Parra was essentially considered a poor man’s Carlos Gonzalez (who is now in Colorado). Parra, though, is arguably having more success at the MLB level than his former teammate. The Arizona Diamondbacks organization promoted Parra to the Majors much sooner than expected due to a rash of injuries. Although he was expected to fill in for just a short time, the Venezuela native quickly made himself at home. He is currently hitting .290/.328/.427 with five homers, eight triples and five steals in 307 at-bats. The 22-year-old fielder has always hit for a good average, but he’s impatient at the plate (5.5 BB%) and he does not have the power (.137 ISO) necessary to play a corner outfield spot in the Majors on an everyday basis. He has split most of his time in the Majors between left field and center, where he’s been average at best. He does have a strong arm.

Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis Cardinals

Rasmus is having a nice, albeit inconsistent, rookie season for the St. Louis Cardinals. The center fielder has shown flashes of the talent that should one day make him an All-Star. However, Rasmus is hitting .248/.306/.412 with 11 homers in 330 at-bats. He has a walk rate of just 7.0 BB% and a respectable strikeout rate of 19.4 K%, but his BABIP is just .278. Rasmus had a nice month of June, but he hit .218/.291/.397 in July and is currently hitting .167/.300/.167 in August. A more patient approach at the plate, as well as a little more luck on batted balls, could really turn his numbers around.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at the top rookie pitchers in the National League.

First of all, let me say thanks to David Appelman for inviting me to the party. It’s an honor to be a part of a team of such great writers, hopefully I can maintain the standard of excellence they’ve set. Let’s just get this out of the way right now: I am a Cardinal fan, so please indulge me a bit this morning as sing the praises of the best Cardinal rookie to come along since Phat Albert.

Colby Rasmus is well on his way to winning the NL Rookie of the Year, but early on in the season, it looked like he might have been quickly shuttled back down to AAA. After his first thirty games, Colby was hitting for a meager .263/.343/.379 line as the Cardinals’ 4th outfielder. The isolated plate discipline looked good, but Colby wasn’t really showing the “five tools” he was hyped for in the minors, particularly power. It seemed all too often Colby was watching strike three go by, and his manager preached to him to take a more aggressive approach.

Normally you cringe when you hear a manager telling a kid to stop walking and start hacking, but at least to this point, it’s working for Colby. Since 5/15, Colby is hitting .283/.302/.531, and in the month of June the young Mr. Rasmus is hitting .375/.375/.625. I guess when you’re beating the living hell out of the ball, what’s the point in taking a walk?

Looking at his plate discipline stats, you’ll find he’s no Pablo Sandoval. He does swing at more pitches in the zone than your average bear — the average Z-Swing% is 65.8%, Colby’s is 74.9%, but he’s not just swinging away at any and everything thrown in his direction. His O-Swing% is 24%, which is major league average. In the minors, Colby walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances, so the ability to draw walks is there, at least in potential.

For another oddity, Colby also has reached double-digits in stolen bases in each of his seasons in the minors dating back to his Appy League days, but only has one steal so far this season. I think that speaks more to his team’s philosophy than on Colby’s ability.

What we’re seeing is a 22-year old kid just starting to figure out how good he is, and it’s only going to get better from here. Colby currently has a .336 wOBA and has played freakishly good defense, with a UZR of 12. His rest of season ZiPS projection calls for a modest .323 wOBA which he could easily surpass. Assuming he’s not this amazing at defense, but is at least a +1 win fly catcher in center as his minor league numbers suggest, and we’re talking about not just the Senior Circuit’s best rookie, but one of its best center fielders, and this could just be the tip of the iceberg of what is to come.

Earlier this week, I took a look at the American League Rookie of the Year race. There were a number of deserving candidates for the award, led by Elvis Andrus of Texas and Rick Porcello of Detroit. Unfortunately, the competition for the year-end award in the National League is close to being a one-horse race at this point – and none of the players are having a season nearly as good as either Andrus or Porcello.

St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus has a firm grasp on the Rookie of the Year award despite having just an OK season, so far. His current line is .265/.323/.453 with six home runs in 170 at-bats. Rasmus showed good patience at the plate in April with nine walks in 18 games, but he’s walked only three times since… in almost a month and a half. His overall walk rate is down to 6.6 BB%, while his strikeout rate is at a reasonable 20 K%.

While Rasmus’ walks have decreased, his success at the plate has increased – at least in May. After bottoming out with a .212 average in May, Rasmus is heating up with the summer weather. So far this month, the 22-year-old outfielder is just four hits shy of his total for the entire month of May. His 14 hits in just nine games has been good for a .452 average.

Interestingly, he has used his good speed to swipe just one base this season, in as many attempts. In previous minor league seasons, Rasmus has nabbed as many as 27 bases. Defensively, Rasmus plays a very good outfield and he has plus range and a powerful arm.

Rasmus is still young and he has a long way to go to become a star player in the Majors. The talent is there, but there is also some lingering concern over his disappointing 2008 season in triple-A.

I am not a fan of Japanese veteran pitchers being considered for the Rookie of the Year awards. But because of the lack of options in the National League, right-hander Kenshin Kawakami is going to receive some attention. The soon-to-be 34-year-old pitcher spent 10 seasons in the Japanese Central League and twice won 17 games.

He had a rude welcome to Major League Baseball as he posted a 7.06 through April during the first four starts of his North American career. His overall numbers were not bad, but five home runs definitely hurt. Kawakami rebounded in May and posted a 3.03 ERA over five starts – and he did not allow a ball to leave the yard during that stretch.

He has been hittable throughout the year with 65 hits allowed in 64.1 innings of work. His control has been OK, although not as good as it was in Japan, and he has a walk rate 3.50 BB/9. His strikeout rate is a respectable 7.13 K/9. Opponents’ contact rate against Kawakami (79.5%) is actually lower than it is against Toronto’s Roy Halladay (79.7%), a legitimate Cy Young award candidate in the American League.

The good news for the Rookie of the Year race in the National League is that there is still plenty of time for a player such as Milwaukee’s Mat Gamel to get hot and run away with the award. Or perhaps someone like Jordan Schafer, of the Atlanta Braves, can return from his exile to the minors with a renewed approach. If Jordan Zimmermann can gain a little more consistency in Washington, then he is another candidate to consider, even if he does play for a pretty bad club.

The Graduate: Chris Perez | Born: July 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The former supplemental first-round pick made his highly-anticipated MLB debut in 2008 and held his own. In 41.2 innings, Chris Perez allowed 34 hits and posted rates of 4.75 BB/9 and 9.07 K/9. He gave up his fair share of fly balls, with a GB% of just 38.7. His fastball averaged out at 95.2 mph during his stay in the Majors. He relied on it a little too much though – three-quarters of the time, with his slider coming in next at 24.6%. Perez is considered the Cardinals’ closer of the future.

The Riser: Jess Todd | Born: April 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jess Todd has done nothing but post solid pro numbers. The former college reliever has acclimatized well to the rigors of starting in pro ball. In less than two full seasons, Todd made it to Triple-A and held his own in four starts. He spent the majority of the year in Double-A where he allowed 79 hits in 103 innings. Todd posted rates of 2.10 BB/9 and 7.08 K/9. He has a solid fastball in the low-90s, a slider and a developing change-up.

The Tumbler: Colby Rasmus | Born: August 1986 | Outfielder

It’s not completely fair to list Colby Rasmus in this category. Yes, he had a disappointing season, but the outfielder was playing at Triple-A at the age of 21. He also struggled with injuries that should be fully cleared up by the start of 2009 with no residual affect. Rasmus hit .251/.347/.396 with an ISO of .145 in 331 at-bats. His batting average has dropped each of the last three seasons – from .310 to .275 to .251, which is cause for concern. On the plus side, his rates of 12.9 BB% and 21.8 K% are on par with those during his breakout 2007 campaign – which suggests he was not completely over-matched.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Niko Vasquez | Born: February 1989 | Shortstop

Niko Vasquez was select out of a Nevada high school in the third round of the 2008 amateur draft. He slipped a bit in the draft after an inconsistent prep season that left a lot of scouts wondering if he could play shortstop in pro ball. Defensively in pro ball, he was steady with 11 errors made in 63 games and average range. Vasquez had no issues with his bat in his pro debut. At Rookie Ball, he hit .317/.401/.462 with a .144 ISO in 208 at-bats. Vasquez posted rates of 12.2 BB% and 25 K%. He was promoted to A-ball for a late-season, 11-game stint and struggled with a line of .128/.209/.154.

The ’09 Sleeper: Nick Additon | Born: December 1987 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Nick Additon was no where near the prospect radar coming into the 2008 season, despite solid debut numbers in 2007. He was originally signed by the Cardinals as a 47th round selection out of a community college. Additon has a below-average fastball, but the southpaw has a plus-change-up and excellent control. In A-ball in 2008, he allowed 92 hits in 119 innings of work. He posted rates of 2.65 BB% and 8.17 K/9. He also received a late-season promotion to High-A where he posted a 0.50 ERA in three starts. Double-A will be the true test for Additon.

Up Next: The New York Yankees

The Atlanta Braves organization is well-known for its preference in drafting raw high school pitchers and molding them with the club’s pitching philosophies. The 2006 draft was known for being heavy in talented college pitchers, but the Braves still followed through with the club’s original formula and selected four high school pitchers as part of its seven picks within the first three rounds of the draft.

(FYI: The club also draft high school first baseman Cody Johnson, community college shortstop Chase Fontaine, and college pitcher Dustin Evans).

Cory Rasmus, brother of St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus, was the first prep pitcher taken by Atlanta (38th overall). He has been slowed by injuries and has pitched just 13 innings in the last three seasons. He is expected to be healthy in 2009 and the right-hander should spend most of the year in A-ball.

Steve Evarts (43rd) has also pitched far less in the past three seasons than the Braves had hoped he would, in part due to injuries and in part due to disciplinary reasons. When he’s been on the mound, the young lefty has pitched well and he has a 2.30 career ERA in 98 innings, having allowed just 86 hits and 17 walks, with 81 strikeouts.

Jeff Locke (51st) has at least been able to stay on the mound for three seasons with good, but not spectacular, results. This season, his first in full-season ball, Locke allowed 150 hits in 139.2 innings but walked just 38 batters and struck out 113. The lefty obviously has excellent control, but he needs to miss more bats if he is going to be successful in the upper minors.

Chad Rodgers (100th) was the fourth high school pitcher taken and the third lefty. He, like Locke, played his first full season of ball in 2008 after two stints in Rookie ball. Rodgers went just 2-10 with a 4.53 ERA and split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen. He showed good control (2.76 BB/9) and struck out more batters than Locke (7.59 K/9) but also had trouble missing bats and allowed more than one hit per inning.

It’s true what they say: Young pitchers will break your heart. This quartet of talented pitchers have opportunities that millions dream of, but few realize. It’s about time they start to take advantage of those chances.

Top offensive prospect Colby Rasmus is having an off-season in Triple-A for the St. Louis Cardinals organization. The 21-year-old was selected in the first round (28th overall) of the 2005 draft out of a Georgia high school. He has moved swiftly through the system and hit .275/.381/.551 with 29 homers and 18 stolen bases in 472 Double-A at-bats last season. So far this season, and now at Triple-A Memphis, he is batting .249/.351/.401 with 11 homers and 13 stolen bases in 309 at-bats. Interestingly, Rasmus – a left-handed batter – is hitting just .237 against right-handed pitchers and .277 against southpaws. On the positive side, Rasmus hit .333 in June after hitting .210 in April and .218 in May.

Although Rasmus is struggling, fellow outfield prospect Shane Robinson is improving his standing in the organization. The 23-year-old was originally selected out of Florida State University in the fifth round of the 2006 draft. He was slowed by an injury in 2007 at hit just .253/.321/.355 in 166 High-A at-bats. This year, though, Robinson was challenged with a promotion to Double-A and responded with a line of .352/.396/.496 with four homers and 13 RBI in 244 at-bats. He was promoted to Triple-A in June and has hit .265/.284/.349 with one homer and one stolen base. Robinson, who is only 5-9, likely projects as a fourth outfielder in the Major Leagues as a player who has limited power and patience at the plate. Defensively, he has a questionable arm for center field.

Jon Jay is another outfielder who has improved his prospect standing this season. Like Robinson, Jay was selected in the 2006 draft as a second round pick out of the University of Miami. He was also slowed by injuries in 2007 and hit just .265/.328/.387 in 230 at-bats at three levels. This season, at Double-A Springfield, Jay is batting .305/.375/.471 with 11 homers and nine stolen bases in 325 at-bats. The left-handed hitter is maintaining a solid average against southpaws (.277) and right-handers (.312). Jay has a slightly brighter future as a better defensive outfielder than Robinson.

With solid outfield depth at the Major League level already, the Cardinals could use any of the above players to help fill some of the other holes on the big league club before the trade deadline at the end of this month.