Archive for designated hitter

Not too long ago, FanGraphs editor Carson Cistulli was watching a broadcast of a baseball game during which the announcer remarked offhandedly that the pitcher’s batting average of .231 was equivalent roughly to a .400 mark for a position player. His interest piqued, Cistulli asked his FanGraphs colleagues: if not .231 precisely, then what is the equivalent of a .400 batting average for a pitcher? After nobody else expressed any interest in doing the same, I endeavored to answer the mostly frivolous question.

The easiest way to go about solving the problem is probably to look at percentile ranks — that is, at seasons from position players, broken into percentiles by batting average, compared to the same percentiles for pitchers. That’s where I started, at least. I looked at all qualified position players from 1986 to 2015, finding nearly 5,000 player-seasons. Then I turned to pitchers. Because no pitchers qualified for the batting title during that time range, I chose a threshold (a somewhat random figure of 50 plate appearances in a season), yielding nearly 1,500 pitcher player-seasons.

I created percentiles for both groups and set them at 10%, 33%, 50%, 67%, and 90% to yield averages. The table below shows the results:

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If you were to examine the spectrum of defensive positions, going from easiest to most difficult, it would probably look something like this: Designated Hitter-First Baseman-Left Field-Right Field-Center Field-Third Base-Second Base-Shortstop-Catcher. Right field and left field are very similar and center field, second base, and third base are also bunched together under the typical spectrum. However, when looking for the positions that pay the most money, the positions that are the easiest to play make the most money. A similar point, in a similar fashion, was made last year at this time, and it remains true. A combination of the free agent system, aging, and the decline that puts the spectrum to use mean first basemen and designated hitters make the most money while shortstops tend to make the least when taking all starters into account.

I took every position player and designated hitter starter from our FanGraphs Depth Charts and put that alongside the salary information from Cot’s Contracts to find an average salary for the 30 starters at every position with the 15 starters at designated hitter. As was the case last year, first base and designated hitter make the most money, although this season, with Albert Pujols moving to designated hitter, first base lost its crown.

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Today’s installment of our series on the coming free agent market takes a look at some of the first base and DH options that will be available. While the 2012 free agent class is pretty shallow overall, at first base (and DH, if you include it) there is some true quality and a bit of depth. At the top of the list are an old player, a player some people think will get old fast, and a player some people think is older than he says he is.

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According to Wiktionary, the definition of “enigmatic” is

1. Pertaining to an enigma.
2. Mysterious.
3. Defying description.
4. (variant) Enigmatical.

Is “Enigmatical” really a word? Who cares? I think it fits as a nickname: The Enigmatical Kenny Williams.

I am not mocking Chicago White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams. I’m mocking myself. I have a terrible track record when it comes to thinking about Williams’ moves. When he makes a move I think is silly, it ends up working out. When he makes a move I like, it blows up. So it is with some trepidation that I am posting on Chicago’s designated hitter hole.

The White Sox are built to win now: trading for Jake Peavy, acquiring Alex Rios, and adding questionable stopgaps like Juan Pierre in left and Mark Teahen at third. It’s not an unrealistic hope. The Twins were the class of the AL Central even before adding Orlando Hudson. But with Peavy, Mark Buerhle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd, the Sox probably have the best starting rotation in the division, and the bullpen is strong. The position players don’t stand out as much, but they aren’t dreadful — Carlos Quentin is a good hitter when healthy, Gordon Beckham is a budding star, and Rios, Alexei Ramirez, and Paul Konerko are solid performers. They’re probably the only other team in the Central with a shot, but it is a legitimate shot.

That makes the DH situation puzzling. The White Sox decided to pass on Jim Thome, who then signed a cheap contract with the Twins. While I’m not sure how much a bench DH really helps the Twins (unless Delmon Young is terrible yet again despite CHONE’s favorable projection), not having him around really is going to hurt Chicago. It’s not clear who Chicago plans on playing at DH, but (Omar Vizquel jokes aside) from what I gather it will be a mix of Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, and occasionally guys like Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin. Perhaps power-hitting catching prospect Tyler Flowers will get some DH starts later in the season.

Seriously, a Jones/Kotsay platoon is the first option? Keep in mind that a league-average hitter is a replacement level DH. While Jones might still have his uses as a bench/platoon player, CHONE projects him as a below average hitter (.324 wOBA, -7/150 in context-neutral linear weights). If you think that’s bad, Kotsay projects at .297 wOBA, -16/150 context-neutral. That’s not useful at any of the positions Kotsay backs up at this point, much less DH. Even if efficiently platooned, that’s ugly. Heck, Mike Jacobs (-6) would be an upgrade, and would also keep the Chicago/Kansas City pipeline active.

They really didn’t have room for Thome? He probably adds just a few runs for the Twins, but he would be at least a one, maybe two win improvement over Jones/Kotsay. Of the remaining free agents, Russell Branyan seems like a great fit. He’s a +15/150 hitter. Even with doubts about his back, as a half-time player he probably adds a win. Carlos Delgado would be an improvement as a DH in a platoon situation, too. There are plenty of league-average hitters still out there who could meet the defensive “requirements” at DH.

The White Sox are in a situation where spending a bit on a DH who can hit better than Zombie Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay is logical, yet so far they’ve passed. But one thing I’ve learned over the last few years is to never count The Enigmatical Kenny Williams out.