Managers on the Third Time Through the Order
It is well known that pitchers are less effective the third time through the order. And if you know it and I know it, you can be sure that major league managers know it, as well.
The numbers speak for themselves. As the lineup turns over, a typical starting pitcher’s OPS-against climbs from .705 to .731 to .771. Going strictly by those stats, lifting your starter when he reaches less-effective territory makes sense. But if it’s the middle innings and he’s pitching well, is automatically turning to the bullpen prudent, or is it an overreaction?
At the Winter Meetings, I asked a cross section of managers for their opinions on the third-time-through dilemma. Here are their responses, edited for clarity and concision.
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Brad Ausmus, Tigers: “The problem is the balance. I don’t disagree. I think the numbers show that the more times a hitter sees a pitcher, the more success that hitter is going to have. I don’t think it’s a secret. Before the numbers showed it, we knew that was the case. The balance is allowing the starters to go deep enough to not overuse your bullpen.