Archive for Dustin Pedroia

We all know, entering the season, that the WAR leaderboards in the early part of the year reveal less about the players contained within them than those same WAR leaderboards at the end of the year. That knowledge doesn’t stop me, personally, from compulsively looking at the leaderboards just as soon as the season begins. Remember Freddy Galvis? He was tied for the National League lead among shortstops with 0.9 WAR — and “on pace” for a great season at the end of April. A month of replacement-level production has placed him considerably lower among major-league shortstops. What about Devon Travis? At the end of April, his 1.4 WAR was sixth in all of baseball. Unfortunately, an injury slowed him down and he has been unable to add to his impressive April totals.

Now that we have reached the second week of June, the leaderboards begin to look a little more familiar. Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, and Paul Goldschmidt have continued great runs of production. Bryce Harper has emerged and Jason Kipnis has returned to form after a poor 2014 season. There are still surprises at this point, though. The production of Harper and Kipnis was not expected to reach these levels, Joc Pederson has been far more impressive than anyone could have expected, and Dee Gordon is still slapping and running his way into the top ten. We will see more changes as the season wears on, providing a more accurate depiction of player value as more games are played. However, since we are all looking at the leaderboards now, it might be worthwhile to point out a few anomalies in WAR totals due to the small sample sizes we have with defensive statistics.

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Boston Red Sox minor league second baseman Sean Coyle is a solid minor league prospect which is actually pretty rare for a player of his stature. In fact, in three years spent Scouting the Sally, only a handful of prospects have been worthy of more than a cursory look (Jose Altuve – HOU, Leury Garcia – TEX, Wilfredo Tovar – NYM) which speaks volumes about Coyle as a baseball player. However, as kind as it may seem on the surface to compare the best second baseman in the Red Sox system to the best second baseman in baseball – organization mate Dustin Pedroia – it’s pretty unfair to both players.

Video after the jump

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Yesterday, we took a look at the first basemen in baseball this past season, looking at the good, the bad, and the Konerko. Today, our attention turns to second base, one of those pesky middle infield positions to see which bright spots housed the most shine, and where some of that light needs to be directed moving forward. Ultimately, though, there were really only two standouts at second base this year, when you factor in offense, defense, and baserunning: Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia. Utley is both a fan favorite and a saber-darling, as many analysts cannot wrap their heads around how the Phillies won the MVP award in 2006 and 2007 and neither of them went to former UCLA star. Pedroia may very well walk home with the AL MVP this year in a very open race.

When looking solely at offense, there were actually quite a few solid performers at the position this year. Outside of Utley and Pedroia, Dan Uggla smacked 32 more home runs, Ian Kinsler helped spearhead a scary Rangers offense, and Mark DeRosa emerged as a legitimate offensive threat–he may have played all over the place this season but the majority was at second base.

Via WPA/LI, Chase Utley was close to one and a half wins better than anyone else at the position:

Chase Utley, 3.63
Dan Uggla, 2.27
Dustin Pedroia, 2.03
Mark DeRosa, 1.89
Ian Kinsler, 1.62

When we use VORP, we get a slightly different story:

Dustin Pedroia, 62.3
Chase Utley, 62.2
Ian Kinsler, 54.6
Brian Roberts, 50.6
Dan Uggla, 42.5

This is strictly offense, though, so what happens when the defensive element is introduced:

Chase Utley, +47
Mark Ellis, +26
Adam Kennedy, +19
Brandon Phillips, +17
Dustin Pedroia, +15

Only Utley and Petey remain, further establishing my assertion that this position belonged purely to the two of them this season. Based on the fact that Utley made over three times more plays than Pedroia relative to the average second basemen and that he either leads by a large margin, or is essentially tied to Pedroia in several offensive categories, it is in no way a stretch to conclude he had the best season for a keystone cornerman. Pedroia may walk home with some hardware, but Utley performed better, and I’m not just saying that as a fan of the Phillies.

In the baserunning department, Ian Kinsler scored a +41 based on his stolen base success and ability to advance to bases or take the next base. This put him seventh in the sport, ahead of all other second basemen. Placido Polanco‘s 43 strikeouts were the least, and Brian Roberts‘ 82 walks were the most amongst these players. Utley hit the most home runs, 33, and produced the highest OPS, .915. Pedroia came within four doubles of Todd Helton’s “record” of 58, as he hit 54 two-baggers. Helton isn’t the record holder, but in recent history, nobody has more than his 58 from several years ago. Akinori Iwamura led the way with 9 triples in that department.

On the flipside, Freddy Sanchez and Robinson Cano had abysmal offensive seasons, finishing with a -1.44 and -1.31 WPA/LI, respectively. This does not mean either is a poor player, but rather that they had poor seasons. Factor in defense and it becomes clear that Cano had the worst season of any second basemen. Sanchez’s +2 at the position put him 11th, while Cano’s -16 placed him 34th, as he made sixteen less plays than an average second basemen. Entering the season, the thought existed that Cano might be able to challenge Utley in some way for second base supremacy. I don’t think anybody anticipated they would find themselves as polar opposites on both offense and defense. Tomorrow, we turn to Shortstops and Third Basemen, before finishing off the infield with Catchers on Friday.

In an effort to counteract the usage of lefthanded relievers in the White Sox bullpen, Terry Francona opted to bat second baseman Dustin Pedroia cleanup this weekend. As odd or funny as it sounds—even prompting Ozzie Guillen to mention it is the first time he ever IBB’d a “jockey”—Pedroia in the cleanup spot is not an absolutely ridiculous idea. Having played just about every game for the Red Sox, last year’s Rookie of the Year winner is hitting .326/.373/.488, good for an .861 OPS. For the record, masher Carlos Pena’s OPS is .865.

Pedroia’s BABIP of .337 is essentially no different than last year’s .334, however his Isolated Power has seen a big jump. Last year’s .125 has jumped to a .161, thanks in large part to his 15 longballs.

Since June 12, he has been especially hot. In the 67 games during that span, just about half of his season, he has hit .384/.426/.598, for a 1.022 OPS. Additionally, 11 of those 15 home runs have come in that span, and Ozzie Guillen was quoted as saying he would rather face David Ortiz at this point than Pedroia. On the year, Pedroia’s 2.63 WPA leads all second baseman, though his 1.56 WPA/LI ranks sixth. This provides valid explanation that he has been clutch this year, as his performance has risen in crucial situations.

He has that look of an Eckstein-gritmaster, but don’t let it fool you… this guy can hit. He doesn’t like hitting cleanup and will likely find his way back to the top of the order when Kevin Youkilis is at 100%, but the way Dustin’s hitting, he isn’t too far off the slugging reputation that accompanies the #4 spot in a lineup.

On a sidenote, Pedroia’s potential right-side-of-the-infield partner, Lars Anderson, was interviewed this weekend at Fire Brand of the American League. To read the interview, click here.

An article of mine titled “Low Risk-Any Reward?” was published in the most recent issue of SABR’s newsletter, By the Numbers. The article looked at low-risk pitcher signings from 2002-2007 and sought to find out if they were really worth the risk. This year, at least one such low-risk signing is performing pretty well. His name is Shawn Chacon and you may remember the 30-yr old Alaskan from his past work with the Rockies, Yankees, and Pirates.

Chacon has made seven starts this year and is yet to receive a decision. Yes, you read that correctly: he is still 0-0. While Aaron Harang has been unlucky in his decisions received, Chacon hasn’t even gotten the chance to receive unmerited decisions.

He has gone six or more innings in all but one start and allowed more than three runs just twice; ironically, they were his most recent starts.

On the year he has pitched in 45 innings, surrendering 40 hits and 22 walks, while striking out 32 batters. With five home runs allowed and a 1.45 K/BB ratio, his ERA of 3.60 is a bit misleading of his skill level; his FIP suggests it should be closer to 4.48.

His 1.38 WHIP greatly benefits from a 78.2 LOB% and hitters are producing at a slash line of .244/.332/.402; an OPS of .734. Oddly enough, Chacon is the first pitcher I’ve come across here whose BABIP perfectly correlates with his xBABIP via frequency of line drives. His 15.0% LD would suggest a BABIP of .270. His actual BABIP? .269!

He has cut back on his usage of fastballs by nearly ten percent, filling the void with three percent more sliders and six percent more curveballs. His next scheduled start is May 11th. Hopefully he can get a decision then or else Odalis Perez’s record of 18 ND’s in 2004 may soon be in jeopardy.