Archive for Jay Bruce

If you woke up this morning, looked at the WAR Leaderboards for position players and saw Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, and Manny Machado near the top, you might have had an inclination that all is right with the world. After all, those three players are some of the very best in major-league baseball, and we would expect to see them at the top of the list. Of course, when you look closely at the leaderboard, it’s important to note that there are 171 qualified players. To regard the WAR marks as some sort of de facto ranking for all players would be foolish. For some players, defensive value has a large impact on their WAR total, and it’s important, when considering WAR values one-third of the way into the season, to consider the context in which those figures.

“Small sample size” is a phrase that’s invoked a lot throughout the season. At FanGraphs, we try to determine what might be a small-sample aberration from what could be a new talent level. Generally speaking, the bigger the sample size, the better — and this is especially true for defensive statistics, where we want to have a very big sample to determine a player’s talent level. Last year, I attempted to provide a warning on the reliability of defensive statistics. Now that the season has reached its third month, it’s appropriate to revisit that work.

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The Cy Young Award.

The Jackie Robinson Award.

The Kenesaw Mountain Landis Memorial Baseball Award.

Players dream of earning these awards during their career. To be a part of the prestige and history of the game in that manner is the stuff that dreams are made of.  Then, we have the award named after baseball contemporaries.

Matt Klaassen started the Carter-Batista Awards (CBA) in 2009 to recognize those players whose offensive value is exaggerated by their RBI totals.  Joe Carter’s name is listed first because not only does he own the highest CBA score since 1990, he owns three of the top seven.
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I was recently doing some research for an ESPN article using our depth charts, and a few observations came to mind:

1) No one has any idea what to make of Alexander Guerrero;
2) The Astros are actually getting some respect, and the Marlins aren’t; and
3) Wow, would you look at the non-Jay Bruce members of the Cincinnati outfield? Read the rest of this entry »

As a 23-year-old with a wide array of skills, Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce is one of the most valuable long-term talents in the game. The twelfth overall pick in the 2005 draft reached the majors by the age of 21, raking to the tune of .308/.366/.551 on the farm and ranking as the best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2008.

Bruce has done a number of things well at the big league level. His swift outfield defense (+8.6 career UZR/150 in RF) belies his 6-foot-3, 225 pound frame. Also, his plate discipline has improved since his rookie season. And at times, Bruce’s feats of strength give credence to the 70 power grade that Baseball America gave him in its 2008 Prospect Handbook. But at the plate, Bruce has yet to put it all together and bust out as a true offensive force.

In 2008, the lefty batter produced a 96 wRC+ in 452 plate appearances. Bruce’s plate approach was understandably raw, as his outside swing percentage was about 20 percent higher than the MLB average (Bruce’s 30.4 percent O-Swing, divided by the 25.4% average). The lack of plate discipline led to a tepid 7.3% walk rate. Still, a .199 Isolated Power from a guy who would be age-appropriate for High-A ball was extremely impressive.

Last year, Bruce refined his strike zone discipline. His O-Swing was four percent above the big league average (26.1% O-Swing, 25.1% average), and his rate of free passes taken climbed to 9.8%. The Boss hit for even greater power, posting a .246 ISO. But Bruce’s BABIP nosedived from .296 during his rookie year to .221. Even if you were to take his 13% line drive rate at face value, his expected BABIP (xBABIP) was .294. Bruce’s wRC+ (97 in 387 PA) barely budged, but it was hard to view his ’09 season as anything other than a big step forward.

Given Bruce’s age, elite minor league track record and promising secondary skills in the majors, he entered 2010 as a good candidate to start thrashing opposing pitchers. ZiPS was more reserved, predicting modest improvement (105 wRC+). CHONE, however, was firmly on the bandwagon with a 135 wRC+ projection. Bruce’s BABIP has bounced back and then some this year (.323), to the point where it actually exceeds his .301 xBABIP. Even so, his bat is once again three percent below average (97 wRC+ in 461 PA). What’s going on here?

He’s still working the count decently, with an O-Swing just once percent higher than the MLB average (29.5 O-Swing, 29% average) and a 9.3% walk rate. But while Bruce is getting more hits on balls put in play, he’s not doing as much damage on those hits:

Jay’s ISO is down to .155, just a bit higher than the .146 major league average this season.

Bruce’s performance to the pull field hasn’t suffered, with a spike in BABIP compensating for fewer extra-base hits:

But he remains below-average on balls hit to the middle field…

…and his excellent opposite-field hitting in ’08 and ’09 is absent in 2010:

Bruce’s spray numbers haven’t shifted much — he has hit to the opposite field about a quarter of the time, center about 30 percent and the pull side 45 percent. According to our pitch type values, fastballs and sliders have given him an especially hard time.

While this post might seem to take on a negative tone, I still think there’s plenty of reason to expect Jay Bruce to emerge as a star-level player in the near future. He saves runs with his glove, doesn’t hack and has a history of hitting with authority. ZiPS projects a .199 ISO for the rest of the year.

Bruce hasn’t become an offensive beast — yet. But if he continues to lay off junk pitches and taps into his power potential, watch out.

Edit: As Jason461 pointed out, Bruce fractured his right wrist last July. I was reluctant to ascribe the decrease in power to the injury, but I suppose it’s possible that it’s a factor. What do you guys think?

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the National League Central division. Of the six teams in the division, no club relied on young players in 2008 more than the Cincinnati Reds – both in the field and on the mound.

In the past few days, we have looked at the: AL Central, AL West, AL East.

In any other year, Joey Votto would have had a legitimate shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the National League. Last season, the first baseman hit .297/.368/.506 with 24 homers and 84 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also posted a walk rate of 10.1% and a strikeout rate of 19.4%. This season, Votto has dealt with some medical concerns, but he’s still hitting a robust .357/.464/.627 with eight homers and 33 RBI in 126 at-bats. His strikeout rate is virtually the same, but the 25-year-old Canadian has increased his walk rate by almost five percent.

It’s funny how baseball works. Outfielder Jay Bruce was the most highly-anticipated rookie of the year at the beginning of 2008, but his rookie season ended up being pretty average. Now 22, Bruce spent the first 48 games of the season in triple-A before his promotion. In the Majors, he hit .254/.314/.453 with 21 homers in 413 at-bats. He also had a walk rate of 7.4% and a strikeout rate of 26.6%. This season, he’s hitting just .217/.306/.469 with 16 homers in 226. On the positive side, his walk rate has increased by three percent and the strikeout rate is down four percent. After posting a .298 BABIP last season, Bruce’s BABIP is a ridiculously low .206. His line drive rate is down seven percent from the 21.1 LD% he had last season. Right now, he’s kind of looking like a cross between Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn, which isn’t really a good thing. At least he’s still very young.

The only bigger enigma in the Reds’ system is right-hander Homer Bailey. The 23-year-old pitcher has very good stuff, but consistency is not his strong suit. After a disappointing nine starts in 2007, Bailey returned to the Majors for part of 2008 and posted a 7.93 ERA with 59 hits in 36.1 innings. He posted a 4.21 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of just 4.46 K/9. This season, Bailey has made just one (poor) MLB start while spending the majority of his time in triple-A. He has a 2.83 ERA with 81 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. He has a walk rate of 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.06 K/9.

Johnny Cueto was mostly an unknown prospect prior to the 2008 season but he made a name for himself pretty quickly. Overall, the right-hander was 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA and he was inconsistent all season. However, he still struck out more than 150 batters (8.17 K/9) while keeping the walks to a modest number (3.52 BB/9). This season, the 23-year-old has been even better with a 2.17 ERA and 68 hits allowed in 87 innings. He’s decreased his walk rate by almost one full walk per nine innings, but his strikeout rate has also dropped. Cueto’s ground-ball rate is also up, though, and he’s becoming more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.

Milwaukee fans had been waiting for Manny Parra to “arrive” for quite a few seasons, but his MLB career was delayed by injuries in the minors. The left-hander’s rookie season in 2008 had promise, although he allowed far too many hits with 181 in just 166 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 4.07 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.97. This season, Parra completely fell apart before being demoted to triple-A. In the Majors, Parra posted a 7.52 ERA with 83 hits in 64.2 innings. His walk rate jumped to 5.71 BB/9.

Kyle McClellan, 25, was a key part of the Cardinals bullpen in 2008 despite an uninspired minor league career. The right-hander posted a 4.04 ERA with 79 hits allowed in 75.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.09 BB/9 and 7.02 K/9. This season, the reliever has a 3.45 ERA and has allowed just 23 hits in 31.1 innings. He has struggled with his walk rate at 4.88 BB/8 and his strikeout rate is 6.61 K/9.

J.R. Towles was one of the Astros’ better hitting prospects prior to the 2008 season but he struggled mightily in the Majors. The right-handed hitting catcher batted just .137/.250/.253 with a strikeout rate of 27.4 K%. He hit more than .300 after a demotion to triple-A. This season, Towles, 25, has appeared in just four MLB games and has a batting average of .182. He’s spent the Majority of the year in triple-A and has a triple-slash line of .281/.385/.461. With top prospect and catcher Jason Castro in double-A, Towles’ future is probably in another organization.

A Rule 5 pick-up from the Dodgers, Wesley Wright appeared in 71 games for the Astros in 2008. He posted an ERA of 5.01 and allowed 45 hits in 55.2 innings of work. He had a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.22 K/9. The southpaw held lefties to a .207 batting average and righties hit .220. This year, Wright struggled with a 7.24 ERA and allowed 23 hits in 13.2 innings. He was then demoted to triple-A.

Kosuke Fukudome had a red-hot first few months in the Majors and then fell off the face of the earth for the remainder of 2008. Overall, the Japanese rookie hit .257/.359/.279 with 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 501 at-bats. Last year, he hit .279 in the first half of the year and just .217 in the second half. This year, he got off to another good start but has cooled as of late to an overall line of .266/.394/.429 with five homers and four steals. The 32-year-old outfielder does not have youth on his side.

The reigning Rookie of the Year in the NL, Geovany Soto had a great offensive season for the Cubs. He hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 homers and 86 RBI in 494 at-bats. The catcher also posted a walk rate of 11.2 BB% and a strikeout rate of 24.5 K%. This year has been a disaster as he’s hit just .217/.324/.311 with three homers in 161 at-bats. His rates are pretty much the same but his power has dried up. The Cubs really need his bat to wake up.

The Pirates received some help from outfielders Brandon Moss and Nyjer Morgan in 2008. Moss was acquired from Boston in the Jason Bay deal, while Morgan is a homegrown talent. Moss had a modest rookie year and hit just .246/.304/.436 with eight homers and one steal in 236 at-bats. His strikeout rate was high at 29.7 K%. It’s dropped almost 10 percent this season but the outfielder is still not hitting well with a line of .243/.293/.343 with one homer and no steals. Morgan, on the other hand, is exceeding expectations. The speedy outfielder had just nine steals in 14 attempts last year but he hit .294/.345/.375 in 160 at-bats. This season he has 16 steals in 23 attempts and is hitting .261/.338/.340. Morgan, 28, looks like a useful fourth outfielder.

Jay Bruce arrives with a 3-3 night, including 2 walks. Reds fans rejoice:

“Did he actually touch the ground, or did he just glide from base to base?” – On Baseball and The Reds

“Jay Bruce will never record an out in his Major League career.” – The Reds Rocket

“Thats what we call a debut!” – Reds Minor Leagues

“Wow. That’s all I can say. Just, wow.” – Redleg Nation

“Corey Patterson better get comfy in his spot on the bench, center field is now occupied.” – Redlegs Rundown

“Bruuuuuuce, Bruuuuuuce” – The Real McCoy

“As a side note: Jay Bruce.” – Reds Pitchfx

“No, he’s not the savior, […]” – Dusty Baker

Entering 2008 the Cincinnati Reds were supposed to feature two exciting rookies. No, not Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto. All the hoopla surrounding the Reds’ future involved top prospects Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey. But a funny thing happened along the way during spring training: It was decided Bruce and Bailey needed some more seasoning. And the emergence of Cueto, as well as the late March addition of free agent Corey Patterson, afforded the Reds that luxury.

Votto has enjoyed a solid season in Cincinnati, so far. He is hitting .294/.348/.506 and has four home runs in 85 at-bats. The 24-year-old Canadian has done the unthinkable: He’s taken playing time away from a veteran (Scott Hatteberg) under manager Dusty Baker’s watch.

Cueto was blowing everyone away early in the season – fans, writers and batters, alike. He’s likely hit the inevitable wall, after allowing 12 runs in his last two starts (including a stinker where he allowed seven runs in 1.2 innings against the surprising St. Louis Cardinals). In truth, his first major league appearance probably did him more harm than good after he caught everyone’s attention by allowing one run on one hit over seven innings, while striking out 10. The bar was raised a little too high after that, and he’s only been ‘pretty good’ since then, as his 5.40 season ERA shows.

Meanwhile, down on the farm in Triple-A, Bruce and Bailey are quietly going about their business showing that they are ready whenever the Reds organization decides it needs them.

Bruce, who turned 21 a month ago, is hitting .284/.308/.505 with five homers in 109 at-bats. He still has some rough spots, as witnessed by the fact he’s racked up 27 strikeouts and only six walks. But he’s stolen seven bases in as many attempts and the left-handed batter is hitting .303 against southpaws with an .801 OPS (but no walks in 33 at-bats). He’s been slumping lately and has hit only .152 in his last 10 games with 11 strikeouts in 32 at-bats.

Bailey has had only one bad outing in six appearances for the Triple-A Louisville Bats. On April 25 against Indianapolis he allowed four runs in six innings on six hits (Oh, the horror). Other than that, he’s been great. Overall, he has a 2.29 ERA and has allowed 30 hits in 39.1 innings of work. He’s improved his control and walked just nine batters, while striking out 32. He’s still obviously working up in the zone a lot and has a GO/AO (ground out to air out) rate of 0.76. The right-handed pitcher is holding left-handed batters to a .189 average.

Given the struggles of Bronson Arroyo (8.63 ERA) and Josh Fogg (9.27 ERA), Bailey could be up before Votto celebrates Victoria Day (May 19). Bruce could potentially help ignite the offence with outfielders Ken Griffey (.228/.310/.377), Patterson (.200/.263/.433), and Adam Dunn (.221/.375/.389) struggling.