Archive for John Lackey

John Lackey might be slightly overlooked on a Chicago Cubs team that’s almost ideally constructed. He isn’t young and he isn’t really a star — which tend to be the two traits that earn a player attention during the postseason. He is an above-average pitcher, though, and as the Cubs’ starter for Game Four of the World Series, he’s in a position to exert some influence over the club’s chances of winning the championship. With all of his antics on the mound, it’s hard to say Lackey does anything gracefully. What he has done, though is age quite well, putting up one of the best two-year runs among pitchers his age over the last three decades. And here’s something about him that’s relevant for Saturday’s game against Cleveland: while he doesn’t need a generous strike zone to succeed — his pitching ability and the great Cubs defense are enough — Lackey, more than most, is in a position to benefit from one.

Over the past two seasons, John Lackey has pitched more than 400 innings with a better-than-league-average FIP. Over the last 30 years, he’s one of just a dozen pitchers to pull off that feat between the age-36 to -37 seasons. While his 6.7 WAR total over that interval might not seem incredibly high, the only pitchers over the last three decades to pitch more innings with a higher WAR are (listed in order of wins) Randy Johnson, David Wells, Chuck Finley, Dennis Martinez, Jack Morris,  R.A. Dickey, Greg Maddux, and Woody Williams .

The relatively even success over the 2015 and -16 seasons doesn’t mean that Lackey hasn’t made adjustments. As Eno Sarris wrote, Lackey improved his change and took a different approach against left-handed batters this season that could have lessened his platoon splits. He both struck out and also walked a few more hitters this year while giving up homers at a higher rate (something to watch for if the wind is blowing out on Saturday), but because of the overall increase in scoring this season, Lackey’s fielding-independent numbers remained nearly identical when taken in context. While he isn’t mowing hitters down, he has continued to record an above-average strikeout rate and walk rate, and the Cubs appear to have gotten a pretty good deal on the two-year, $32 million contract Lackey signed, even if the team did also have to concede a draft pick.

Lackey is a pitcher who relies on swings to get batters out. His strike-zone percentage at 48% is a little below average, but he’s one of just five starting pitchers (Kevin Gausman, Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander) in 2016 to finish among the top-20 starters in out-of-zone swing rate (O-Swing%), in-zone swing rate (Z-Swing%), and overall swing percentage. Among the right-handers in that group, all of them throw several miles per hour harder than Lackey — and even the lefty Hamels throws a bit harder on average. Lackey relies on being close enough to the zone to (a) elicit swings on pitches that will either be missed or yield weak contact or (b) get called strikes on borderline pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Game time: 11:05 ET

Starting Pitchers
Rays: Jeff Niemann (R)
2 GS, 8.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 1 HR, 4.94 FIP, 5.34 xFIP.
Projected FIP: 4.13 (FAN) 4.61 (CHONE) 4.67 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.20 run reverse split in 205.0 IP

Red Sox: John Lackey (R)
2 GS, 12.2 IP, 5 K, 6 BB, 1 HBP, 0 HR, 3.88 FIP, 5.50 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.74 (FAN) 3.90 (ZiPS) 3.96 CHONE 4.18 Marcel
L-R Splits: 0.21 normal split in 1513.2 IP

The Red Sox will be looking to avenge three straight losses to the Rays and four straight overall. They appear to hold the pitching advantage in the last game of this four game set, as John Lackey will take the mound for the Red Sox. Although his 1.42 ERA looks great right now, Lackey has had some issues with control so far, issuing 6 walks against only 5 strikeouts. The ERA is a result of keeping the ball in the ballpark, as we can see from his high xFIP.

Lackey appears to have a completely new approach this year, as he has taken to throwing a cutter – 38% of his pitches have been classified as a cutter so far this year, a pitch with significantly less movement towards a right-handed hitter than his four-seam fastball. His cutter is averaging 89.5 MPH on the year, so far a significant drop off from the 91.6 he averaged on his go-to four-seam fastball last season. He hasn’t completely scrapped the four-seamer – he still uses it over 20% of the time – but the average velocity appears to be lower, sitting at 90.2. It’s very early in the season, but he’s only drawn 6 swinging strikes in 207 pitches – a paltry 2.9%. That number will need to rise for Lackey to be effective as the season continues.

Niemann, similarly, has a low ERA in his first two starts despite poor performance. Niemann hasn’t managed to strike batters out as of yet, and although a 1.08 BB/9 looks nice, he also has hit two batters in only 8.1 innings. His first start ended abruptly, as he was hit on the shoulder by a Miguel Tejada line drive.

Much like with Lackey, the use of a secondary fastball – in this case, a two-seamer – appears to be much more prominent in Niemann’s repertoire this season. Unlike Lackey’s cutter, Niemann’s two-seamer exhibits a sharper break towards a right-handed batter. In his April 13th start against Baltimore, the two-seamer drew 2 swinging strikes in only 27 pitchers, for a swinging strike rate of 7.41%. If his breaking pitches can draw more swinging strikes – only one between 33 changeups, sliders, and curveballs – an increased whiff rate on his fastballs should lead to more strikeouts and, naturally, more success for the second year pitcher.

Neither pitcher exhibits a strong platoon split, and so neither team should be looking to stack the lineup with lefties. Expect the normal lineups for each team today.

The CHONE projected standings originally showed the Red Sox 5 games ahead of the Rays for the AL Wild Card. The FAN projections showed the Rays as within 2 at the start of the season. With the Rays taking the first three games of this series at Fenway Park, the Rays have closed the gap. This is an important game for the AL East and Wild Card races, even though it’s only April, as each team needs all the ground it can get.

Last week, Red Sox lefty Jon Lester and Angels righty John Lackey met in Anaheim for the first game of a much anticipated division series. On one hand, the Red Sox won the World Series last season, had beaten the Angels in the playoffs about nine straight times, and despite winning the wild card, were considered by many to be the superior time. On the other hand, the Angels won the most games in the junior circuit, and actually went 8-1 against the Red Sox in the regular season, with the Halos winning eight in a row.

In game one, the Red Sox would not start Josh Beckett, one of the, if not the best playoff pitchers we have ever seen, and instead go with Jon Lester. Lester, a star in the making, had a breakout season this year, amassing 210.1 innings of 3.21 ERA/3.64 FIP pitching. He had a WHIP of 1.27 and a nice K/BB of 2.30. A hard thrower, Lester threw his 93 mph fastball close to 60% of the time this year, relying on a cutter and a curveball to make up the rest of his deliveries. His season was so good, and perhaps even unexpectedly good, that he has actually been able to shake the reputation as being primarily a cancer survivor, and instead become known as an extremely good pitcher.

The Angels decided to send their ace, John Lackey, to face Lester. Despite missing time earlier in the season, Lackey made 24 starts this year, in which he posted a 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 3.25 K/BB. If there was one blemish, it was that his FIP suggested his ERA should be closer to the 4.53 mark. The Red Sox took game one from the Angels, with Lester giving up one unearned run over six hits in seven innings. He issued just one free pass and fanned seven hitters. Lackey lasted 6.2 innings, giving up four hits and two runs, while walking three and striking out five.

While Lackey has been a good pitcher for quite some time now, he is still remembered for being a rookie pitching in game seven of the 2002 World Series against the Giants. That post-season, he appeared in five games, three of which were starts, posting a 2.42 ERA and 2.25 FIP in 22.1 innings. Since that time, he has made five playoff starts, in which he has produced a 4.34 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 29 innings. His achilles heel has been walks.

In 2002, he issued six walks and struck out 17 hitters. Since then, 15 walks to go with his 21 strikeouts. A team like the Red Sox cannot be given extra baserunners in the form of walks, so if the Angels have any chance of winning this game, not only will they need to break through against Lester, but they will need Lackey to limit his free passes. Otherwise, the Red Sox will more than likely take advantage of these miscues and move onto the ALCS tonight.