Archive for Kerry Wood

Recording 20 strikeouts is an amazing feat — and a rare one, too: this past Wednesday, Max Scherzer joined Roger Clemens, Kerry Wood, and Randy Johnson as the only players ever to accomplish it in nine innings. What they’ve done is exceptional and, naturally, separates them from other pitchers. And while similar, each performance occurred in the context of different variables which made it distinct: era, opponent, ballpark, etc. No one is required to decide which pitcher faced the most challenging set of circumstances among those five games (Clemens did it twice). Yet, I’ve elected to make an attempt, anyway.

When first trying to understand which game posed the most difficultly, we immediately turn to the opponent. Roger Clemens, for example, achieved both of his 20-strikeout games with the designated hitter in play. Striking out 20 players of major-league caliber — regardless of how low they are on that particular scale — is still incredibly difficult. It’s more difficult to record 20 strikeouts against good hitters. The Detroit Tigers lineup Scherzer faced, meanwhile, is a top-heavy one. But solid overall, even if it didn’t feature a DH.

The table below depicts the lineup the Tigers deployed against Scherzer as well as each respective hitter’s rest-of-season projected numbers for wRC+ and strikeout percentage. (Jordan Zimmermann‘s career numbers were used, and his strikeout percentage and wRC+ were combined proportionally with pinch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s. Weighted average accounts for the top of the order getting more plate appearances than the bottom)

Tigers Lineup Against Max Scherzer

Player	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	101
J.D. Martinez	124
Miguel Cabrera	145
Victor Martinez	119
Justin Upton	118
James McCann	71
Anthony Gose	80
Jose Iglesias	84
Jordan Zimmermann	33
AVERAGE	97
Weighted AVG	100

*Zimmerman’s wRC+ averaged proportionally with pinch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

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Yesterday, Dave Cameron examined the grim history of 3+ year contracts dished out to free agent relievers over the past four off-seasons. The Cliff Notes version? Those ‘pen arms, save for the anomaly that is Mariano Rivera, have provided a paltry return on investment for their respective teams. After a few years of fiscal restraint, four relievers have received ample job security from clubs this winter: Joaquin Benoit (Tigers), Scott Downs (Angels), Matt Guerrier (Dodgers), and Jesse Crain (White Sox) all signed three-year contracts. If recent history is any indication, a few of these deals might elicit more forehead slaps than high-fives in front offices over the next three seasons.

In contrast to the long-term commitments given by the Tigers, Angels, Dodgers and White Sox, the Cubs and Rays each added a talented reliever for peanuts on Thursday. Kerry Wood will reportedly return to Wrigley Field on a one-year, $1.5 million deal. Joel Peralta, curiously non-tendered by the Nationals after a season in which he posted a 3.02 FIP and a 3.64 xFIP, is on the verge of signing a one-year contract with Tampa Bay for $900,000. Take a look at the 2011 Bill James projections for Wood and Peralta, compared to their much pricier free agent peers:

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At 65-37, The New York Yankees have a better than 90 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings. With no gaping holes and a potential blockbuster for a starting pitcher no longer on the table, the Bombers have bolstered the DH spot with Lance Berkman and upgraded with bench with Austin Kearns. Now, the Yankees have added Kerry Wood from the Cleveland Indians in an attempt to strengthen the bridge to Mariano Rivera. The Indians will send cash (approximately $1.5 million of Wood’s remaining $3.6 million salary) as part of the deal, while picking up a player to be named later from the Yankees.

Wood, 33, inked a two-year, $20.5 million deal with the Tribe prior to the 2009 season. Suffice it to say, Cleveland’s return on investment has been poor — Wood compiled just 0.2 WAR in 75 innings with the Indians. His xFIP was 4.11 in 55 frames last season, as he missed lots of bats (10.31 K/9) but walked 4.58 batters per nine. In between DL stints for a strained Latissimus muscle in his back and a blister on his right index finger in 2010, Wood has 8.1 K/9, 4.95 BB/9 and a 5.04 xFIP in 20 IP. The Texan has an $11 million club option for the 2011 season that would have been guaranteed if he finished 55 games this season, but that ship has obviously sailed. And, that option won’t be exercised. The Yankees might, as Rob Neyer said, “have more loose money than a Saudi prince,” but there’s no chance of them retaining Wood at that price.

As a unit, Yankees’ bullpen ranks fourth in the American League in xFIP and seventh in Win Probability Added. Mo remains marvelous, and both Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson have pitched much better than their ERAs would indicate. The extra relief arm won’t hurt, though. Given Wood’s injury problems and bouts of wildness, he shouldn’t be expected to dominate — ZiPS projects him for a 4.05 rest-of-season FIP, with a strikeout per inning and nearly four walks per nine frames. But, considering the apparently minimal price tag to pick up Wood and the lack of depth in the Bombers’ ‘pen, he’s a worthwhile addition.

Last off-season K-Rod, Kerry Wood and Brian Fuentes were considered to be the cream of the free agent crop for closers. Wood signed for $20.5 M with an $11M vesting option if he finishes 55 games for the Tribe next year. Fuentes signed a two-year, $17.5 million contract w/2011 option. Francisco Rodriguez signed the richest deal of the three, with a 3-year, $37M contract. Other than all three pitchers becoming very rich men last winter, what else do they have in common?

They have all been, by varying degrees, free agent landmines. K-Rod’s peripherals have continued their downward decline. While his ERA looks acceptable enough at 3.36, his FIP has gone up from 2.70 to 3.22 to 3.79 this season over 65 innings pitched. That’s good for 0.6 wins above replacement, worth $2.6 million, a mere fraction of his actual salary.

Kerry Wood has thrown 51 innings and his FIP has nearly doubled from last year, from 2.32 to 4.08. His strikeout rate is still good at 10 K’s per nine innings, but his walk rate from has doubled and he’s suffered some severe bouts of gopheritis. Wood has been worth a measly .5 WAR. At least for this season, the rebuilding Indians are paying him 5 times his actual value. Chris Perez, who came over in the Mark DeRosa trade, has better peripherals and the stuff to close.

Brian Fuentes has all but lost his job for the Angels to youngster Kevin Jepsen. Fuentes has 43 saves but an awful 4.48 FIP, meaning he’s more deserving of mop-up duty than high leverage innings. He’s been worth just .3 WAR.

Meanwhile, the best relievers in the game have either been homegrown, as in the case with Brian Wilson, Andrew Bailey and Jonathan Broxton, or they have basically been freely available talent like Heath Bell or David Aardsma.

Paying a high price for a “proven” closer just isn’t always the greatest idea.

Francisco Rodriguez inked a three-year deal (with a fourth year option) with the Mets earlier today, but he is not the only closer that will wear a new uniform in 2009. Kerry Wood, who will likely forever be linked to the Cubs, reportedly signed a two-year deal with the Indians. The deal should be announced tomorrow, and once it is, just about everyone from the Bartman era will be gone. Wood will take over the closer’s role, which should offer some stability in the least. Last year, Joe Borowski struggled and was eventually released. Jensen Lewis then filled in for the remainder of a disappointing season for the Indians.

The exact details of the deal are not yet known, so this analysis will essentially be a work-in-progress, but we can definitely see what Wood should earn — his fair market value. In many ways, this signing is the opposite of K-Rod’s, in the sense that we have to adjust Wood’s projected FIP to be slightly higher, given the offensive superiority of the American League.

Marcel projects Wood at a 3.51 FIP over 61 innings. Moving to the junior circuit, though, a bit more should be tacked on. Let’s call him a 3.65 FIP pitcher in 61 innings. If a replacement level AL reliever is a 4.75 pitcher, than Wood is going to save a little over one run per nine innings. Extrapolated over the full 61 innings, Wood would be about eight runs above replacement level. The high leverage of his innings pitched then needs to be taken into account. Eight runs multiplied by an average LI of 1.8 comes out to +14 runs. According to these calculations, Wood would be worth a little less than one and a half wins next season.

1.4 wins * $5 mil/win equates to $7 mil. Wood’s fair market value would roughly call for a 2-yr/$14 mil deal. Last season, his base salary was $4.2 mil, though with incentives taken into account he earned just under $8 mil. We will have to wait and see what exactly Kerry signed for, but my initial inclination is that it will be more lucrative than an average annual value of $7 mil. As more details become available, we can determine just how much he was under- or over-valued, or if he was valued properly.

Then again, if he gets hurt, as has been customary for Mr. Wood, this all goes down the drain.

The New York Daily News recaps Kerry Wood’s incredible 20 strikeout performance all the way back on May 6th, 1998. The SportsCenter highlights are a must watch: (hat tip: Baseball Think Factory)