Archive for Lance Lynn

The Minnesota Twins continued a productive offseason over the weekend, signing Lance Lynn to a bargain-rate one-year, $12 million deal. Lynn turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November. He also reportedly turned down higher guarantees from other teams, per Jon Morosi. 

Not clear regarding those other offers is whether the average annual values of the contracts would have been equivalent or if Lynn would have had to forfeit the opportunity to explore free agency next offseason in exchange for a few extra million dollars. Whatever the case, it appears as though Lance Lynn will have to try his hand at free agency next winter if his ambition is to find a long-term home.

As for the Twins, they get great value on a player seemingly overlooked by the market. Indeed, the club seems to have specialized in this sort of deal over the winter. Heading into the offseason, for example, the crowd believed Addison Reed was in line for $27 million, the third-highest guarantee among relievers behind only the figures estimated for Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Reed ultimately agreed to join the Twins for just $16.75 million in mid-January — or less than the overall deals received by seven other relievers who’d signed at that point in the offseason.

The addition of Logan Morrison represents another instance in which the Twins have taken advantage of a slow market. The crowd expected Morrison to sign for $20 million. At the end of February, however, Derek Falvey et al. signed him for just one-third that amount.

Finally, there’s Lynn. Projected by the crowd to receive $60 million over four seasons, the right-hander settled for 20% of that figure. When the offseason began, it was reasonable to think that the Twins would need to guarantee $107 million to acquire all three players mentioned here. With just $35.25 million, though, the club signed the trio at a rate discounted by 67% from initial estimates.

The Twins’ bargain-shopping was not limited to free agency: the team also took on Jake Odorizzi and his $6.3 million salary in exchange for a prospect of little significance. Odorizzi went to the Twins not because of their willingness to provide Tampa Bay with considerable talent but because they were willing to pay his salary.

There are some logical explanations for the Twins’ apparent good fortune. For example, all the players acquired by the club come with significant question marks, and none are currently projected to provide more than two wins this season. That said, each possesses some kind of upside and a relatively recent track record of success. The combined five wins the club is projected to receive will cost just $33 million in 2018 salaries. Given the recent cost of wins on the free-agent market, the Twins’ efficiency should be lauded. More important than getting a good deal, though, they have also obtained solid major leaguers at areas of need.

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Lance Lynn first received a rotation spot in 2012 when St. Louis’s then-ace Chris Carpenter went down in Spring Training. Lynn inherited the rotation spot vacated by Carpenter, but did not inherit his role as staff ace, into which Adam Wainwright stepped after missing 2011 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals have once again lost their ace, with Adam Wainwright out for the season because of an Achilles injury. This time, Lance Lynn, secure in his spot in the rotation and current de facto ace, appears poised to drop the de facto qualifier and be one of the top ten pitchers in all of baseball.

As Jonah Keri wrote yesterday, not much was expected of Lynn when he was drafted, but over the last year he has been one of the better pitchers in the National League. The Cardinals tweaked Lynn’s delivery in the minors, instructing him to move his hips more to gain greater leverage towards the plate. The moves helped Lynn throw in the mid-90s out of the bullpen in 2011, and kept his fourseam fastball in the 92-93 mph range as a starter. Lynn has been solid and durable, but not spectacular, as a starter over the past three seasons slotting behind Adam Wainwright. In the early part of this season, he has taken a step forward, mirroring the career of Max Scherzer.

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Prior to playing on the biggest stage in professional baseball almost all ball players must take the long bus rides, live off late-night fast food runs and toil in the near obscurity that can be minor league baseball. For some players on the 2012 playoff clubs those memories are a little fresher than for others. With work well under way on the 2012-13 Top 15 Prospects lists at FanGraphs – due to begin in early November – I thought it might be fun to look back and see what I wrote about those players during the previous three annual prospect reviews. Below are excerpts from what was originally written.

No longer Albert Pujols‘ club, the Cardinals 2012 roster consists of a number of young players developed internally. The organization does an outstanding job of balancing higher-priced veterans with (often complementary) younger contributors. The strong in-house development has been very evident on the pitching staff during the club’s playoff run and post-season success.

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General Manager: John Mozeliak
Farm Director: Mike Girsch
Scouting Director: Jeff Luhnow

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Honestly, this is a pretty barren system, in terms of can’t-miss, impact talent… but it does have its fair share of intriguing names. The organization’s minor-league talented has been gutted by trades, as well as the graduation of 2009 top prospect Colby Rasmus. The organization did select three very interesting names at the top of the draft in ’09, which helps provide a lifeline to the system.

1. Lance Lynn, RHP, double-A
DOB: May 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – U of Mississippi
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Lynn doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he has a solid repertoire that he commands well, he does a relatively nice job of pounding the strike zone (this slipped a bit in double-A) and he’s a big, strong, durable guy. The right-hander doesn’t really project as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he should be a solid No. 3 guy who could pitch a few years at the level of a No. 2. Lynn has had few problems with minor-league hitters in his career and he posted a 3.47 FIP in 126.1 double-A innings. He also does a great job of keeping the ball in the park; he allowed five homers in ’09 (0.30 HR/9). His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%. Lynn has had some nicer strikeout numbers in the lower minors in small-sample sizes but the 6.98 K/9 in double-A is a little worrisome; he’s had success putting a lot of balls in play, but he’s also been helped by some lower BABIPs.

2. Jaime Garcia, LHP, triple-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 22nd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

A number of top pitching prospects in the system have been derailed by injuries and Garcia has been no different. Bothered by elbow problems for the past few years, Garcia finally had elbow surgery and missed a good portion of the ’09 season. He returned in time to make nine appearances and he actually pitched quite well. In 21 triple-A innings, the left-hander struck out 22 batters in 21.0 innings of work. In the small-sample size, his control was improved over the previous few seasons, which was nice to see since a lot of pitchers struggle with their control after a long layoff. On the downside, Garcia allowed five homers at triple-A (2.14 HR/9). Along with his solid repertoire, the southpaw is also an extreme ground-ball pitcher and that continued in ’09 as he posted a 62.4 GB% in 51.0 combined innings. At the very latest, Garcia should be helping out the Cardinals by mid-2010.

3. Daryl Jones, OF, double-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 3rd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

After teasing the organization with his potential in both 2006 and ’07, Jones broke out in ’08. His growth hit a bit of a wall in double-A in ’09 but he appeared in just 80 games due to injury. The outfielder hit .279/.360/.378 in 294 at-bats. His ISO fell by almost half to just .099 in ’09 his wOBA dropped from .410 to .343. After stealing 20+ bases in both ’07 and ’08, Jones managed just seven this past year in 11 attempts – and was on pace for fewer than 20 even without the missed time. Still just 22, Jones could head back to double-A in 2010 for the third time, or the organization could be aggressive with him and bump him up to triple-A. Because he hits left-handers well and should avoid the dreaded platoon, Jones has the potential to be an impact outfielder – especially if he can find his power stroke again.

4. Allen Craig, 3B/LF, triple-A
DOB: July 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 8th round – U of California
MLB ETA: early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

The hot corner has been a bit of an issue for St. Louis in recent years but the organization has a few prospects on the cusp of the Majors that are capable of playing third base. Craig is often overlooked but the 25-year-old infielder has quietly slugged 20+ homers in three straight seasons, while hitting above .300. In ’09 at triple-A, Craig hit .322/.374/.547 with an ISO of .225 in 472 at-bats. He was aided by a healthy .359 BABIP. If you want to nitpick on Craig’s stats, he could do a better job of getting on base if he took a few more free passes; he posted a walk rate of 7.3% in ’09. For a slugger, he does a nice job of limiting strikeouts and typically keeps his strikeout rate below 20.0%. After spending the majority of his minor-league career at the hot corner, Craig spent more time (71 games) in left field at triple-A. He also played 42 games at first base and just 13 at third base. He could be given consideration at third in the spring, but his value to the club may lie in his versatility.

5. Eduardo Sanchez, RHP, double-A
DOB: March 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted amateur free agent
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, curveball

Sanchez burst onto the prospect landscape in a big way in ’09. The formerly obscure relief prospect missed a lot of bats in both high-A and double-A by posting a strikeout rate just shy of 10.0%. He also showed improved control, although it did slip at times. The 20-year-old right-hander could see his fastball velocity jump even higher if he adds a little more bulk to his slender frame. Sanchez allowed just 32 hits in 50 double-A innings, but he posted a very low BABIP at .248, which is something he’s done consistently throughout his minor-league career. The right-hander dominates right-handed batters (.170 in ’09) but he also holds his own against left-handers (.202). For a hard-throwing reliever, Sanchez does a respectable job of keeping the ball on the ground with a ground-ball rate right around 50.0%.

6. Dan Descalso, IF, triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – U of California-Davis
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Descalso, like Craig, could offer a lot of roster flexibility with his ability to play multiple positions. Mainly a second baseman, the left-handed hitter split ’09 between double-A and triple-A. At the lower level, he hit .323/.396/.531 (.356 BABIP) in 288 at-bats. At triple-A, he slipped to .253/.327/.320 (.283 BABIP) in 150 at-bats. Descalso’s numbers have been pretty inconsistent over his career; he’s shown flashes of hitting for average, as well as flashes of hitting for power. Because he’s done neither consistently, he could end up as a utility player. If the 23-year-old infielder can improve, though, he could be the long-term answer at second base, as he hits both left-handers and right-handers equally well.

7. Adam Reifer, RHP, high-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 11th round – U.C. Riverside
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Reifer is a step behind Sanchez in the race to provide late-inning support in St. Louis. The 23-year-old right-hander can hit the high-90s with his fastball and he had a solid year in high-A ball despite the misleading 4.47 ERA. Reifer posted a 3.53 FIP and had a strikeout rate of 9.31 K/9. He put a lot of men on base with a 4.47 BB/9 and with 51 hits allowed in 48.1, but he was victimized by a high BABIP at .362, as well as a poor LOB rate at 67.8%. If he can sharpen up his control, Reifer should settle into an eighth- or ninth-inning role in the Majors. To be a closer, he’ll need to improve his control when facing left-handed batters after posting a walk rate of 6.35 BB/9 against them in ’09.

8. David Freese, 3B, triple-A
DOB: April 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 9th round – University of South Alabama (Drafted by San Diego)
MLB ETA: early 2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Freese is getting a little long-in-the-tooth for a prospect, but he signed out of college as a senior so he had a late start to his career. Injuries prevented him from seeing more time in the Majors in ’09 (31 at-bats) but he hit above .300 at every level that he played at this past season (including rehab time). At triple-A, Freese hit .300/.369/.525 in 200 at-bats. He posted a .225 ISO and has 20-25 home run potential. The right-handed hitter has shown a consistent ability to hit .300 in the minors, but he’s also been aided by some solid BABIPs. He might not be so lucky in the Majors, but that remains to be seen. All signs point to Freese being given the first shot at the third-base job in St. Louis in 2010, although Mark DeRosa could end up back with the Cardinals.

9. Bryan Anderson, C, triple-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an off-year for Anderson, who battled through injuries and did not hit as well as he had in the past. However, the catcher is still just 22 years old and he has a ton of potential. After showing consistent ability to hit .280-.300 in ’06 to ’08. Anderson slipped to .245/.293/.399 in 163 triple-A at-bats. His walk rate was also a disappointing 5.8% and he struck out at a rate of 25.8%, despite typically sitting below 20.0%. His defense has improved over the past few seasons but Anderson is not going to unseat Yadier Molina any time soon. He could end up backing up the incumbent, or Anderson could shift to another position, thanks to solid athleticism. He could also be used as trade bait once he’s shown he’s fully healthy.

10. Pete Kozma, 2B, double-A
DOB: April 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Oklahoma HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Kozma barely hangs on as a Top 10 prospect, thanks to the exclusion of 2009 draft picks in this series. The former first round draft pick is currently living on reputation right now after hitting just .216/.288/.312 in 407 at-bats. After posting an .096 ISO and stealing just four bases, he needs to start doing something well if he’s going to avoid the dreaded utility label. Kozma was hurt by a low .262 BABIP in ’09. Just 21, 2010 will be a big year for Kozma who will likely repeat double-A in the hopes of finding his batting stroke; the 21.4% line-drive rate is encouraging.

A special thanks to both Erik Manning and Dan Budreika for their input on the Top 10 list.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Over the past two weeks, we’ve looked at five teams:

Today, we finish up our Arizona Fall League preview with a look at the Surprise Rafters.

The Surprise Rafters (Click HERE for the entire roster)
New York AL, New York NL, Kansas City, St. Louis, Texas

Danny Gutierrez | RHP | Texas
Gutierrez was recently involved in a rare prospect-for-prospects trade between Texas and Kansas City, which netted the Royals outfielder Tim Smith and catcher Manuel Pina. Gutierrez entered 2009 as a highly-regarded pitcher in the Royals system but then he got hurt and reportedly had some run-ins with the organization. When he got on the mound this year, the right-hander produced solid numbers, including 20 hits allowed in 32.1 innings between high-A and double-A. He walked just seven batters.

Lance Lynn | RHP | St. Louis
A supplemental first round draft pick from 2008, Lynn has been on the fast track to St. Louis and spent the majority of the year in double-A. He also made one triple-A start. At double-A, Lynn allowed 117 hits in 126.1 innings of work, while posting rates of 3.63 BB/9 and 6.98 K/9. The right-hander doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he’ll put the ball in play, get his fair share of ground balls and does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park.

Evan Reed | RHP | Texas
Reed was nabbed in the third round of the 2007 draft as a college reliever who was expected to make it to the Majors quickly. However, the Rangers tried to make him a starter and that backfired in 2008 when he imploded at high-A. He moved back to the bullpen in 2009 and saved 25 games in high-A but was still a little too hittable while battling his command. Enthusiasm for his big-league role must be tempered to setup man.

Bryan Anderson | C | St. Louis
Anderson was on track to make his MLB debut in 2009, but he was derailed by an injury so he’s looking to make up for lost time. The Cardinals organization isn’t in the market for a big league starter with Yadier Molina already in the fold so Anderson is ticketed for a big league back-up role unless he gets traded out of town. He’s an OK defensive player, but his strengths lie in his offensive skills and his ability to hit .280-300 from the left side.

Austin Romine | C | New York AL
Jesus Montero gets a lot of attention – and deservedly so – but Romine is a pretty darn good catching prospect in his own right. The 20-year-old prospect hit .276/.322/.441 with 13 homers and 11 steals in 442 at-bats at high-A ball. With a little more patience at the plate (6.2 BB%), he could jump into elite status.

Jeff Bianchi | SS | Kansas City
Bianchi received some love (including from yours truly) back in 2005/06 after he hit more than .400 over two rookie seasons while battling injuries (He accumulated just 140 at-bats). With the injuries perhaps having taken a toll on the youngster, Bianchi all but disappeared offensively for two seasons before resurfacing in 2009 in high-A and double-A. Combined, the 22 year old hit .308/.358/.435 with 22 steals. He still needs to work on his plate approach, though.

Ike Davis | 1B/OF | New York NL
Davis had a dismal pro debut in 2008 and took a lot of heat. He really turned things around this year and ended up in double-A. Overall, he hit 20 home runs in 429 at-bats after failing to hit even one in 2008 in 215 at-bats. Davis also hit for a solid average in 2009 (more than .300 in double-A) and he did a nice job of getting on base (11.2 BB%).

Marcus Lemon | 2B | Texas
He’s not flashy, but Chet’s son has had a pretty solid career so far and projects as a fringe regular, or big-league utility player. He struggled in double-A in 2009 but he’s still just 21 years old and he swings from the left side (and has hit more than .300 against southpaws in his career).

Ruben Tejada | SS | New York NL
Only 19, the Mets pushed Tejada to double-A in 2009 even though he hit .229/.293/.296 in 497 high-A at-bats in 2008. He responded to the challenge and improved his stats to a line of .289/.351/.381 with 19 steals in 488 at-bats. Tejada also struck out just 12.1% of the time.

Tyler Henley | OF | St. Louis
Henley has a nice year as a 24 year old in double-A. The outfielder hit .303/.367/.482 with 13 homers and nine steals in 423 at-bats. He has fringe power for a corner outfield spot so he’s likely to end up as a fourth outfielder, but he could end up getting some regular playing time if the cards fall in his favor.

David Lough | OF | Kansas City
Lough is still learning how to be a baseball player after spending time in high school and even college focusing on other sports like football. He’s catching on quickly though and flew through high-A after hitting .320 in 222 at-bats. In double-A, Lough continued to perform well with a line of .331/.371/.517 with nine homers and 13 steals in 236. Lough is moving from sleeper to legit prospect.