Archive for mike foltynewicz

After years of inconsistent production, Mike Foltynewicz finally harnessed his elite fastball and emerged as an All-Star in 2018. Across 183 innings, Foltynewicz struck out 202 hitters while notching a 2.85 ERA and a 3.37 FIP. All of those marks were easily career bests and, perhaps most impressively, he managed to miss tons of bats while also increasing his ground-ball rate. One year doesn’t make an ace, but Foltynewicz’s stock surged as much as anybody’s in baseball last season.

But Foltynewicz hasn’t built off his breakout campaign in 2019. The right-hander started the season on the disabled list, didn’t look quite right when he rejoined the rotation, and has yet to resemble his 2018 form in anything more than short bursts.

Across 10 starts this year, he’s posted a 5.53 ERA and a FIP north of 6.00. After striking out nearly 10 hitters per nine innings last season, he’s now whiffing fewer than eight. Even worse, Foltynewicz’s home run rate has tripled in 2019, and his 2.44 HR/9 ratio is the fifth-worst in the league among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings.

There are a few factors that explain Foltynewicz’s plummeting numbers. As always, velocity is the first thing to check when a pitcher suddenly starts getting hit around, and sure enough, Foltynewicz is down a bit relative to last season. Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Foltynewicz’s future role for the Atlanta Braves is still in doubt. He brings a high-90s four-seam fastball that should play well out of the bullpen or as a starter, but his secondary offerings might not be good enough to consistently get hitters out at the Major League Baseball level. Acquired in a trade for Evan Gattis in the offseason, Foltynewicz has started two games for the Braves this season after 16 bullpen appearances for the Houston Astros last season. Results have been mixed thus far. In 10 1/3 innings this year, Foltynewicz has struck out nine but walked six, giving up seven runs and averaging an unsustainable 19 pitches per inning. Foltynewicz will need to be more efficient if he is to remain a starter, and the increased use of his sinker his second start of the season provides him with weapons to get quicker outs, more strikes, and help set up his big fourseam fastball and still-developing slider.

Foltynewicz’s fourseam fastball has been the 23-year-old’s bread and butter, sitting “95-98 mph and has hit 100 mph as a starter” per Kiley McDaniel’s write-up in his analysis of the Braves prospects. Last season in relief, Foltynewicz used his fastball roughly 50% of the time, averaging 98 miles per hour out of the bullpen, per Brooks Baseball. He mixed in a curve, sinker, and change, but did not throw any of those offerings more than one quarter of the time.

In his first start of the season against the Cincinnati Reds, he relied on his fastball even more than 2014, throwing 60 four-seam fastballs among his 94 pitches. He might not have had the feel for his change as he threw that pitch just four times in the outing, mixing in a curve and sinker for his remaining pitches. For Foltynewicz’s four-seamer to be successful, it likely needs to stay up in the zone to get swings and misses. Here is the pitch plot from his first start.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Houston Astros entered the season with a weak minor league system and I ranked it 27th overall (out of 30) back in March 2012. Since that time, though, General Manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff have worked hard to improve the system through trades – and at times getting back impressive value for modest MLB talent – while also having one of the best amateur drafts of any team in baseball. The result is a much-improved system that boasts more depth, as well as a number of high-ceiling prospects. The list below was fairly straight forward for me 1-8 but then got muddied with 12 to 15 prospects in play for the finally seven available spots with the 9-15 slots. Players considered in that range, that did not make the list, included the likes of Domingo Santana, Jonathan Villar, Nolan Fontana, Marc Krauss and Kevin Comer.

#1 Jonathan Singleton (1B)

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2011 trade (with Houston)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Singleton was the key prospect in the trade-deadline deal that sent Hunter Pence to Philadelphia in 2011. The deal also brought in fellow Top 15 prospect and pitcher Jarred Cosart, as well as outfielder Domingo Santana who just missed the list. Singleton has moved methodically through the system since the trade and spent all of 2012 in double-A where he posted a 146 wRC+ (i.e. he created 46 more runs than the average hitter in the league).

Singleton has impressive power and he showed that in 2012 by breaking the .200 isolated slugging mark for the first time in his career at .213. (Anything over .200 suggests the player is a “slugger.”) He also showed patience and a solid eye with a walk rate just shy of 16%. The big knock on Singleton throughout his career has been his propensity to strike out and 2012 was no different; he whiffed at a rate of 23.6%. A contact I spoke with said he was not worried with the strikeout rate because Singleton offsets it with power and high walk rates. “It’s not a major concern,” he said.

The contact said Singleton definitely has above-average power, and placed a future 60 grade on it, but would almost rate his hit tool above it. “It has a little length but it’s a pretty swing,” he said, adding that the 21-year-old can handle balls on both the inside and outside corners,thanks to above-average plate coverage. “It makes him very dangerous.”

Although he’s mostly been known in the past for his offensive exploits, the contact I spoke with said Singleton has the chance to be a plus defender. Previously, in an effort to find a place for his bat to play with Ryan Howard entrenched in Philly, the prospect had been given time in left field despite being a natural first baseman. Singleton will remain at first base for Houston. “He’s really plus at first base,” the talent evaluator said, adding that he has long arms and legs, stretches well, with good hands. “He creates a big target.”

Read the rest of this entry »