Archive for Orioles

Jim Johnson led all of baseball with 101 saves over the past two seasons. On September 27th, Dan Duquette told Roch Kubatko of MASN that, “Jim Johnson is one of our core players,” and it was the team’s intention to keep him despite the $10.8M projected salary for 2014. Fast forward to late last week when Buster Olney tweeted that the Orioles were willing to listen to offers on Johnson. After a flurry of rumors yesterday, Duquette decided to allocate his resources to balance the roster to make it more competitive.

Doing so creates a large hole in the back of the Orioles’ bullpen as Johnson also led all of baseball in games finished over the past two seasons. Johnson stepped in to fill the void left by Kevin Gregg’s ineffectiveness two seasons ago, and now someone else has the opportunity to do so. When Johnson did so, it was the easy choice as he had displayed the skills to do so while getting the ball to Gregg to attempt to save games. In looking at the current 40-man roster for Baltimore, there does not seem as clear a choice this time around.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Colorado Rockies starting rotation has been awful at preventing runs this season. Their collective 6.31 ERA and 5.15 FIP are easily National League worsts, and their walk and home run rates rank at or near the bottom as well. Pitching in Coors Field plays a big part in their performance — as their much improved 4.32 SIERA and 4.44 xFIP indicate — but overall, starting pitching has been a major weakness for the disappointing 25-41 Rockies.

That doesn’t say very much for Jeremy Guthrie, who has pitched so poorly in a poor rotation that he is being moved to the bullpen. The season has been nightmarish for the usually steady 33-year old starter. His strikeout rate has dropped from around 14% to 10%. His walk rate has risen from 6.5% to 8%. His home run rate has ballooned by an entire home run per nine innings. He has managed just 59 innings over 11 starts, with an ugly 7.02 ERA, 6.72 FIP and 5.09 SIERA.

The season isn’t yet halfway over so this could all just be an extended slump bound to regress. It could also be a combination of general aging and pitching in a tougher park. However, as it currently stands, Guthrie moved to the easier league, and out of baseball’s toughest division, and has declined in literally every area. Believe it or not, this is fairly rare throughout major league history.

Read the rest of this entry »

Roy Oswalt is getting closer to signing a contract, and while his reported preference is to pitch for one of the Rangers, Cardinals or Braves, the surprising first-place Orioles are quickly emerging as a dark horse candidate for his services. The Orioles may have lost a recent waiver claim to the Rangers based on their better record — which is still strange to type — but an aggressive pursuit of Oswalt, with a relatively lofty salary for three months, may pry him away from the Rangers, the current favorites in his sweepstakes.

The Orioles have been diligent in their pursuit to date, with Dan Duquette avoiding the topic or speaking in generalities when Oswalt is mentioned. Though he may not want to reveal his hand, the club has to have interest in Oswalt on some level.

Pitching is one of their biggest needs — despite relatively strong performance early on — and he is the perfect type of pitcher for the Orioles to pursue: he won’t cost a ton for half of a season, won’t require a commitment beyond this season, and is frankly better than some currently staffed rotation members.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles have a difficult task ahead of them the next few years with three juggernauts ahead of them in the American League East. However, since Andy MacPhail took over baseball operations in 2007, the Orioles have positioned themselves for a bright future. Part of this is manifested in their crowded, young, and skilled outfield.

The two best players in the outfield are right fielder Nick Markakis (26 in 2010) and center fielder Adam Jones (24). Combining ZiPS, CHONE, and my own projections for offense and Jeff Zimmerman’s UZR projections and CHONE’s TotalZone for defense, Markakis projects as a +21/150 hitter in 2010, and +2 defender in right field for about 3.6 WAR.Jones’ projections vary more widely, but he comes in at about +9/150 hitting, +1 fielding (both Jones and Markakis had surprising down years defensively in 2009) for about 3.2 WAR. Those are the obvious guys. For the remaining outfield spot, the Orioles have three candidates: Nolan Reimold, Felix Pie, and Luke Scott.

The 26 year-old Reimold will probably begin 2010 in left field, assuming he recovers well from ankle surgery. Reimold came on strong in 2009, projecting at about +12/150 offensively. His defense was less impressive, and he projects as a about a -6/150 defender in left field. Overall, that’s about about a league-average player. Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty in his defensive projection, and he is young.

While Reimold is the popular choice to start in left field, it’s not obviously the correct choice. While Felix Pie projects as the worst hitter in the group a -4/150, he’s also as good or better than Jones as a center fielder (+2), which would translate to about +12 in left field. So he projects as about a league average (2.0 WAR) player, and is the second-youngest player in the group (only to Jones). While he probably won’t ever be the superstar people though he would be become before the Cubs started jerking him around (as is their tradition), he’s young, good, and has little enough service time that it’s understandable why other teams are interested in obtaining him, and also why the Orioles have so far refused to sell him for a bag of magic beans.

Scott is the odd man out in this situation, but it’s hardly due to a lack of talent. As a hitter, he projects at +11/150. Despite being primarily a designated hitter in 2009, his past performance in the field suggests that is a waste of his talents, as he projects as +2 in left field — clearly better than Reimold. Overall, that makes Scott about a 2.5 WAR player.

The Orioles are in an enviable position of not only having excess talent in the outfield, but not necessarily having to trade any of them. Scott is an underrated player, but given his age (32), arbitration status, and the Orioles overall situation, he should be the first to go. But it’s not as if his arbitration award will be onerous relative to his value. If he’s willing to move to first base (despite his defensive ability), that would fill a hole for the Orioles. But he might have the most value in trade to a team that needs a left fielder, where his skills are best utilized as a 2-2.5 WAR outfielder rather than a 1-1.5 WAR DH.

Pie is the wildcard, as he’s barely older than Jones, and perhaps the most defensively skilled player of the group. Baltimore has understandably committed to Jones in center given his superior bat (although Pie has better plate discipline). While Reimold is the popular choice to start in left, Pie’s far superior defensive skills make him more than just a fourth outfielder. For the future, the Orioles might be best off trading Pie and/or Scott for prospects and/or filling another area of need in the majors. On the other hand, especially in Pie’s case, he’s young, cheap, and skilled enough that they don’t have to trade him, and can certainly find something for him to do around the office. Not many teams find themselves in such a comfortable situation.

Click here to enter your projections for the Orioles various outfielders.

There are only two major league hitters right now with a WPA of 2.00 or above that have single-digit home run marks: Joe Mauer (8) and Brian Roberts (9). Mauer gets plenty of pub regardless of his power outages but it seems that Roberts is still considered a “fluke” due to his great 2005 season that is yet to be matched. Following that tremendous campaign he had a disappointing 2006, which saw his OPS drop almost 200 points, and I’m not sure he has regained any of his reputation since that disappointment.

Last year he improved upon that 2006 season, and this year, has seemingly improved even moreso, as his OPS is the highest it has been since that all-star year. Oddly enough, his strikeout rate is the highest it has ever been, and he is walking at a rate less than last year. The increase in his percentage of hits per at-bat—a “technical” way of saying batting average—has kept his OBP virtually idential to last year.

While he has only hit 9 home runs, he still hits the ball hard, evidenced by his league-leading 46 doubles and 8 triples. The Orioles must possess a doubles-mindset, as teammates Aubrey Huff and Nick Markakis find themselves #2 and #5 in the two-bagger category. Roberts is also fifth in the AL in stolen bases, a skill at which he has been adept even whilst others were digressing.

His defense is a different story. The plus/minus system has numbers for him from 2006 until now, and he appears to be in full-decline mode. In 2006, he was a +7 defender; last year, at 0, he was the average second baseman; and this year he is -6, so below average. While someone like Chase Utley puts up great offensive numbers and leads the league defensively, Roberts’ true value is likely going to be masked because many fantasy leagues do not count defense, and the vast majority of fans use offense as their sole evaluative factor anyway. Though his WPA is a nice 2.36, and he has been 1.58 wins above average from a context-neutral perspective, these are offensive measures; his defense would drag them down.

Lastly, curious to see how Roberts fared in comparison to fellow second basemen and the rest of the league, I looked at the skills assessment page on Bill James Online, and found the following:

Skill           MLB      2B
Running         95th     93rd
Discipline      88th     96th
Average         86th     87th
Power           36th     63rd
Fielding        N/A      59th

His baserunning, plate discipline, and ability to hit for average appear to be exemplary, but he is not a power hitting keystone cornerman in the general sense of the term, and his fielding has been bad enough to not even earn him a percentile in the all-players category. Roberts is a fine player, and he has helped the Orioles not be dreadful this year, but their desire to trade him should make a bit more sense now.

Every now and again when I get a few free moments to myself it has become customary to check sites like Baseball Think Factory and see what is going on across the blogosphere. In the last month or two it has dawned on me that I end up reading about one article every other day discussing Mike Mussina and his chances of being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Writers present stats, discuss why they are good enough, play devil’s advocate to show why he might not get in, and then make some comparison to a pitcher either in/not in to prove their point.

He is currently in the midst of a very good season but, unless I’m mistaken, he mentioned in John Feinstein’s book (along with Tom Glavine) that this would be his final season. Perhaps his great pitching has changed his mind but I had thought this year would be his last.

Regardless, when I look at the Hall of Fame, one question surfaces: Can the story of baseball during the era in which this guy played be truly, accurately told, if we remove him? If the answer is yes, he doesn’t really belong in Cooperstown. That qualifying question discusses the impact a player had on the game on a very simple level; if someone was that important to the game then you would need to include him in some type of historical document or pamphlet when explaining the era to future generations. To me, that is what the Hall of Fame is and should be.

For Mussina, I’m not so sure the answer to that question is positive. And, even if it is, doesn’t the hesitance pointed in his direction say more than the numerous articles written about him?

Anyways, supposing he does find himself enshrined, on whom do you think he made the most impact? Orioles or Yankees? Here are his overall numbers and average seasons with each team. Be sure to note that his numbers with the Yankees are including his overall 2008 numbers using the in-season Marcel projection system.

Orioles: 10 yrs, 288 GS, 2009.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 131 ERA+, 3.29 K/BB, .249/.293/.394
Yankees: 8 yrs, 247 GS, 1547.0 IP, 3.89 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.99 K/BB, .261/.301/.406

Orioles: 29 GS, 6.98 IP/GS, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 47 BB, 154 K
Yankees: 31 GS, 6.26 IP/GS, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 40 BB, 158 K

The numbers on the Orioles tend to look a little bit better but on whom did he have the bigger impact? As in, if he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, would it make more sense to see him wearing an Orioles or Yankees cap? When answering, try to think along the lines of the future and the question posed towards the beginning. For us, it’s very hard to break free from the current, and since we have seen him in pinstripes this entire decade they might be an easy choice… but if someone, fifty years from now, who had little knowledge of this era, were to learn about it and Mike Mussina came up, which team would it make more sense for him to represent?

On April 12, the Orioles made arguably their most productive move of the season, regardless of whether or not they had any idea it would work out that way. They optioned infielder Scott Moore to the minors and recalled 24-yr old pitcher Jim Johnson. Johnson, a starter in the minor leagues, had made two “audition” starts for the Orioles in 2006 and 2007, racking up the undesirable line of 5 IP, 12 H, 10 ER, 5 BB, 1 K. His minor league numbers suggested he was better than that and, since making his 2008 debut on April 13, he has been a key component on an its-surprising-they-aren’t-thirty-games-under-.500 team.

Johnson also stakes claim as the highest-ranked reliever with both a 1.85 WPA/LI and 2.15 REW. Relative to context-neutral wins and wins based on shifts in run expectancy, there has not been a more productive relief pitcher to this date. His overall numbers this year: 43 G, 57.1 IP, 34 H, 24 BB, 30 K. He has also surrendered 12 earned runs on the year, four of which came in one outing in the last couple of weeks.

His 3.30 FIP suggests an ERA of 1.88 has not necessarily been born out of his controllable skillset and, amongst relievers with at least 40.0 IP, his ERA-FIP differential ranks tenth in baseball. The higher FIP is also a direct result of his low strikeout rates and relatively high walk rates. While giving out 3.77 free passes every nine innings won’t lose a reliever his job, especially when comparing him to his peers, the 4.71 K/9 is, at least right now, a bit of a red flag. Looking at the same group of relievers with forty or more innings tossed, his K/9 is the fifth lowest, as is his K/BB. Due to only 34 hits allowed, though, his WHIP is currently a tremendous 1.01.

The question should then become, well, if he doesn’t strike anyone out and his walk rate isn’t that impressive, how has he managed to produce an extremely respectable 3.30 FIP? The answer: he has not given up a home run yet this year. In 43 games, not one ball has left the yard in fair territory after sailing from his hand to the batter’s box. In fact, he is the only reliever with forty or more innings not to serve up a gopher ball this year.

In the minors he had decent but not overwhelming numbers, but his 93-94 mph fastball and 78 mph curveball combination has definitely more than gotten the job done to this point in his first full year in the big leagues. He has only given up, as mentioned, 34 hits this year but his BABIP is a ridiculously low .205. Either Jim Johnson is going to emerge as the elitest of relievers or this is going to regress from here on out. His strand rate of 78% is high but nowhere near the likes of Joe Nathan and his companions atop the leaderboard.

He isn’t allowing a ton of baserunners primarily because balls put in play haven’t been falling in for hits as much. If/when that regresses we can expect the BABIP and WHIP to rise. Though his strand rate isn’t ridiculously high, it is well above average and, if sustainable, will help prevent some of these “new” baserunners from scoring. Regardless, even if or when his numbers do worsen, it won’t mask how effective he has been this year or make us forget that at the end of July he was one of baseball’s most effective relievers. It will take another year or two to know his true talent level but that does not take anything away from his productivity.

While Tom Gorzelanny may have had a no-hitter through 4+ innings on Thursday, John Danks threw five perfect innings this afternoon before his bid at history came to an end. Two major roadblocks stood in the way of a potential perfect game coinciding in the form of Brian Burres completely shutting down the White Sox offense. Burres went eight innings, giving up three hits and no walks, while striking out four en route to his third win of the season. He threw 98 pitches, two-thirds of which were strikes. Danks lost the perfect game but still had a very effective outing, lasting 6.1 innings while giving up just four hits; he did not walk a batter and struck out four. Of his 92 pitches, 64 were strikes (69.5%). The game looked completely even through the first five frames as evident by the steady polygraph pace in the game graph:

After five innings, no runs had scored, nobody had been walked, and the only two hits had been singles off the bats of Jim Thome and Carlos Quentin. Danks quickly lost his perfect game and no-hitter when Adam Jones singled to start the sixth inning. Jones swiped second base and came around to score on Guillero Quiroz’s first major league home run. A tad rattled, Danks gave up a single to Luis Hernandez; after giving up nothing for five innings he surrendered three consecutive hits. He settled down after the Hernandez at-bat, though, retiring Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, and Nick Markakis. Heading into the bottom of the sixth the Orioles had staked Burres to a 2-0 lead.

A Toby Hall single in the bottom of the sixth broke Burres’s streak of 12 consecutive batters retired but he would not allow another runner to reach base for the rest of his time on the mound. After inducing a Juan Uribe groundout to the end the eighth inning his day came to an end. The Orioles provided three insurance runs in the top of the ninth off of Octavio Dotel before Matt Albers and George Sherrill closed the game out in the bottom half of the inning. Though the White Sox did score a run on a bases loaded hit by pitch from Carlos Quentin, it was too little, too late. Joe Crede flied out to end the game as the Orioles won 5-1.

Coming into this start, Burres’s numbers (2-1, 3.63 ERA) were a bit deceiving, as his K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BAA, and WHIP were all below the league average. In fact, he had a K/BB of just 0.90, surrendering 10 walks to go along with just nine punchouts. This helped to translate his 3.63 ERA into a 4.82 WHIP. Despite all of these below average rates he completely dominated a first-place offense simultaneously bringing the Orioles into a first-place tie with the Red Sox.

Corey Patterson has always been thought of as a guy with tremendous potential. From 1999 to 2001, Baseball America ranked him as the 16th, 3rd, and 2nd best prospect in baseball respectively. The physical talents were obvious; terrific athleticism, quick bat, legitimate home run power, and serious speed from a guy playing a premium defensive position well. However, Patterson struggled to refine his approach at the plate, and by repeatedly chasing pitches out of the strike zone, he made himself a fairly easy out for opposing pitchers. If you can’t make contact, it is tough to be an offensive asset. For seven years, Patterson simply didn’t hit the ball often enough to live up to his natural talent, which led to him being bounced out of both Chicago and Baltimore and finding himself as an unwanted free agent this winter.

After an offseason of rejection, the Cincinnati Reds offered him a minor league contract on March 3rd, giving him a chance to fight for a roster spot in spring training. After they decided to send Jay Bruce to Triple-A to start the year, Patterson found himself with a regular job, and with the way his 2008 season has started (.57 WPA/LI and the Reds best hitter to date), he may just have found a home where he can remind people of the player they thought he would be.

It all starts with his strikeout rate. Look at the graph of his contact ability throughout his career.

During his time in Chicago, he was a strikeout machine. As you can see, this is something he’s clearly worked on improving, as the line from his 2005 to 2008 strikeout rate shows a huge decline. So far this year, he’s struck out two times in 46 plate appearances. That’s pretty remarkable for a guy with a career K% of 22.7%. His current K% of 4.8% puts him in a group with noted contact kings Casey Kotchman and Placido Polanco. When you look at the pitch data summary from his Baseball-Reference page, you can see the difference. Even though he’s seeing less strikes than in any other season, he’s only swinging at 72% of those pitches in the strike zone, compared to a career average of 81%.

By being more selective in which pitches to swing at, Patterson has managed to put himself in positions to hit pitches he can do something with, and that’s been manifest in his performance. Of his 11 hits, five are doubles and four are home runs, giving him a .405 Isolated Slugging Percentage that ranks fifth in all of baseball. Patterson’s early season performance isn’t going to be sustained at this level (a 7% swinging strike rate is impossible to keep up), but there are legitimate reasons to believe that he’s adopted a new approach at the plate, and his continued contact ability could be just the ticket to stardom that people have been projecting on Patterson for most of this decade.