Archive for Philadelphia Phillies

Editor’s note: This previously unpublished interview was conducted in 2008.

Juan Samuel wasn’t the best second baseman of the 1980s, but he was definitely among the most exciting. The former Phillie was erratic in the field and he put up some scarily-bad BB/K rates, but he logged a healthy number of extra-base hits and he ran the bases with abandon. He also had some notable teammates and nearly found himself part of a Schmidt-Samuel-Franco-Sandberg infield.

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Joe Savery might be the best story of the 2011 season. The 25-year-old Phillies left-hander saw his pitching career bottom out last year — his record in Triple-A Lehigh Valley was a dismal 1-12 — and when this season began he’d been converted to a position player. By mid-year it looked like a successful transition, as the former collegiate two-way player was hitting .307/.368/.410 with high-A Clearwater, Fla. But earlier this week he made his big-league debut — as a pitcher.

The Rice University product went 5-0, with a 1.50 ERA, in 25 appearances in the minors after being moved back to the mound this season — a year in which the former first-round pick planned to give up his major-league dream so he could return to college this fall. He talked about his circuitous journey in an interview during the final weekend of the Triple-A season.

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David Laurila: How would you describe your 2011 season?

Joe Savery: It’s been interesting. It’s also been a good year. I enjoyed being a hitter again — as well as playing the field, running the bases and sliding, all of the things I hadn’t done in awhile. It has also been very humbling, and exciting, that my arm has come back the way that it has.

DL: What is the story behind your position changes? Read the rest of this entry »

These game notes are offered with supreme humility.

San Francisco at Philadelphia | 8:19pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Giants: Jonathan Sanchez
193.1 IP, 9.54 K/9, 4.47 BB/9, .262 BABIP, 41.5% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 4.11 xFIP, 2.6 WAR

Phillies: Roy Oswalt
211.2 IP, 8.21 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, .261 BABIP, 45.7% GB, 9.1% HR/FB, 3.45 xFIP, 4.7 WAR

The Phils Against Sanchez
According to Matt Becker’s game preview, Giant coach Bruce Bochy has shuffled his starting rotation, purposely pushing up Jonathan Sanchez to tonight’s Game Two in Philadelphia.

Becker writes: “One of the reasons Bochy decided for the change is because Sanchez was stellar in his two regular-season starts against the Phillies this year.”

So, some notes on that statement:

1. Obviously, the reference to “two regular-season starts” sets off the Small Sample Size Alarm in the baseballing nerd’s heart. It’s very probable that Sanchez’s season (and career) numbers — and the Phillies’ team platoon split — can tell us more about tonight’s match-up than two isolated starts this season.

2. As for Philadelphia’s lefty-righty platoon split, here’s what we get: per Baseball Reference, they recorded a 111 OPS+ versus lefties (relative to other teams versus lefties) as opposed to just a 102 OPS+ versus righties. Broadly speaking, the Phillies are probably better versus lefties than righties.

3. Even though Sanchez conceded only 2 ER in those 2 GS versus Philadelphia this season (the first at San Francisco on April 26, the second at Philadelphia on August 19), he didn’t actually pitch all that well. In 13 IP, his K:BB was 13:7, and of the 31 BIP, only 10 of them were grounders. If we figure Sanchez’s xFIP over those two starts, we get something like 4.60 or thereabouts.

The Giants, Oswalt, and Homers
Among National League teams, the Giants had the most homers in September (and October): 39 in 1048 PAs. They also had the NL’s highest HR/FB rate at 12.6%. Buster Posey had eight of the homers; Juan Uribe, seven; Pat Burrell, six; Freddy Sanchez, four; and Aubrey Huff, four. All are likely to start tonight.

Curiously, after coming to Philadelphia, Roy Oswalt saw his groundball rate increase to a level unseen since his 2008 season. After getting grounders on only 43.0% of balls in play with Houston this season — and 43.3% last year — Oswalt saw that number jump to 50.2% in his 12 starts with the Phillies.

There are obvious, and predictable, caveats here: 12 starts isn’t very many, and ground balls are prone to bias. BUT, it’s also possible that what we see here is Oswalt attempting to adjust to his new, more homer-friendly home park.

If I Had My Druthers
• Andres Torres and Chase Utley would spiral into a Handsome Vortex.
• Kool Keith would write an album of the same name.
• Handsome Vortex, that is.

Against all odds, my attempt Friday to predict not only the exact score, but also to provide a precise play-by-play rendering of Game Two in the Philadelphia-Cincinnati NLDS series — well, it wasn’t a rousing success. As it happened, Roy Oswalt didn’t strike out 15 batters, and Chase Utley didn’t hit the inside-the-park home run I was so sure he would. Nor was I able to account for the Reds’defensive woes.

With regard to my failure, all I can say is that, like a politician who’s recently been tied to a New York City-based call-girl ring, I am humbled.

On the subject of humility, however, there appears to be one resident of Philadelphia who’s not feeling too much of it presently — namely, Mr. Charlie Manuel. With Cole Hamels set to start Game Three this evening (at 8:07 ET), and Roys Halladay and Oswalt ready to pitch hypothetical Games Four and Five, Manuel’s feeling pretty confident, as evidenced by his comments in AP writer Jay Cohen’s game preview:

[W]hile Reds manager Dusty Baker is talking about faith, his time in the military and a self-help book he read earlier this year, Manuel feels comfortable enough to say he doesn’t like Cincinnati’s chances of advancing.

“It can happen,” the grinning manager said Saturday. “It ain’t goin’ to happen, but it can happen.”

I can’t say for sure what the proper response is to these comments. Does it demonstrate undue hubris? Is Manuel merely being realistic? Ought Jay Cohen be given a Pulitzer immediately for accurately rendering Charlie Manuel’s spoken English in print?

I don’t know.

In any case, here were this author’s reactions, one-by-one:

1. Wow, did he really say that?

2. [Re-reading] Yes, he appears to’ve said that.

3. [Thinking in My Brain] He maybe shouldn’t’ve said that. The payoff for being correct is much lower than the penalty for being incorrect. Unjustified or unfulilled or un-whatever hubris is generally taboo in the sporting world.

4. On the other hand, he’s probably right. Even if these two teams are evenly matched and only home-field advantage informs the resulting outcomes, that still gives Philadelphia about an 87% chance of winning the series [1 – (.542*.542*.458)].

5. I should note this in that frigging game preview I have to write.

Before I continue, let’s agree on one thing, please — that the subject of “guaranteed victories” is a tired one. Joe Namath’s was pretty excellent, I suppose, because it’s the oldest famous one. But subsequent guarantees — and, seriously, I refuse to spend even one second of my life cataloging them — ring hollow. By definition, one needs to speak in probabilities when it comes to victory.

In any case, this is what makes Manuel’s statements notable — both (a) his acknowledgement of the probabilities and (b) recognition that the Phils’ chances of winning their series are really high. Where usually a player or manager might say, “Yeah, we just gotta go out there and continue to play our game” and/or “That’s a good team in that other dugout,” Manuel’s basically like, “We’re at least as good as the other team, and we have a 2-0 games lead. You fill in the blanks, dogg.”

Is this making a mountain out of the proverbial mole hill? Perhaps, except for two things: (a) I, personally, haven’t ever seen a manager make comments of this nature precisely, and (b) because this is the playoffs, all such comments are necessarily magnified.

As the reader will already know, my colleagues here at FanGraphs have gone to great lengths to provide learned previews for each of the postseason games thus far. Certainly, the writing and the analysis, it’s quite good — nor would I dare change it.

Having said that, though, I will level criticism on one ground — namely, for their (i.e. my colleagues’) inability to predict the future, or even to offer a prediction of same.

For example, consider Dave Cameron’s preview of tonight’s Cincinnati-Philadelphia game. Looking at the contest from the Reds’ point of view, Cameron offers some notes on Roy Oswalt‘s excellence, Bronson Arroyo’s relative inferiority, and how Dusty Baker might be best suited to leverage his bullpen against the Phillies.

That’s fine — all of it — but one thing is conspicuous by its absence from Cameron’s preview: the exact score of the game and the specific events leading to said score.

With all due respect to Cameron, I’m forced to ask: Is this still 2009, or something? If FanGraphs is going to lead the way in baseballing analysis, Dave, we’re gonna have to go the extra mile.

It’s with those shortcomings in mind that I offer to the reader this “Preemptive Review” of Game Two of the Cincy-Philly Divisional Series — in which the author (I, Carson One-Million-Dollars Cistulli) provide a review of a game that has as yet to occur.

You can find an image of the game’s exact box score below and a can see both the box score and play-by-play by clicking here. In the meantime, however, here are some things that will definitely, no-questions-asked occur tonight:

1. Roy Oswalt will strike out 15 batters, en route to a 5-2 victory.
It’s a true fact!

2. Chase Utley will hit two homers, one of the inside-the-park variety.
It’s been pre-ordained!

3. Aaron Harang will pitch 0.1 IP in relief.
Doubt it at your own risk!

4. Laynce Nix will twice be “frozen” on a strike three.
It’s getting cold in here!

5. With two outs in the sixth inning, Drew Stubbs will limit Placido Polanco to a single on a line drive “smoked” to right-center field
Why even question it?!?

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Eno Sarris and I will be covering the Philadelphia Phillies for the duration of the postseason.

In lieu of a proper series preview, we have elected instead — really for no reason whatsoever, other than it’s a fantastic idea — we’ve elected to explore the Phils’ chances versus Cincinnati via the splendors of Lincoln-Douglas (LD) style debate.

As is custom in LD-type debate, we begin this one with a case, as follows:

Resolved: The Phillies will defeat the Reds in the NLDS.

As is also custom in LD debate, one of us (Sarris, in this case) will take the Affirmative side; the other (I, Carson America Cistulli) will take the Negative.

It should be noted that there are a number of things here that are most certainly not proper to typical LD debate. For one thing, we basically just stop after the second cross-examination. For another, we have no idea what we’re doing.

Finally, the reader should understand that, in what follows, Sarris and I are probably just as interested in cataloging the relative strengths and weaknesses of each club as we are of actually “predicting” a winner. Obviously, in such a short series, one can only really speak in probabilities of victory.

Affirmative Constructive
In which the Affirmative makes his case.

The gentleman from Wisconsin may think he’s the Mr. Lincoln in this debate, but the Affirmative in this case is the side that will more likely stand the test of time. There are seemingly no terms to define — we all know that “wins” means “scores (much) more than the opponent in (probably the first three, but at least) the majority of games in the series,” I assume — so we can get on with the debate.

Here on this electronic paper are the most obvious reasons the “Phillies” will “win” this “series.”

1. Their “Big 3” in the starting rotation is better.
The best three starters on the Phillies averaged an 3.28 FIP this year. The Reds’ best (or first) three starters averaged an 4.19 FIP. That’s a stark difference. Oh, and a starter on the Phillies will probably win the Cy Young this year if you are into that hardware thing.

2. Their lineup is deeper.
Take out Joey Votto, the Reds’ best hitter, and the rest of the lineup averages an .340 wOBA. Take out Jayson Werth, the Phillies’ best hitter this year, and the rest of the lineup averages a .347 wOBA. And in some ways that’s understating the Phillies’ depth: their “worst” regular this year was Jimmy Rollins with his .317 wOBA, but he was hurt for much of this year, and his career wOBA is .336. You might be able to pitch around Votto, but how do you pitch around the “scariest” Phillie batter? And how do you identify the scariest Phillie batter?

Cross Examination: Negative Questions
In which the Negative asks the Affirmative questions.

Q. Could the gentleman from California please inform the reader what other factors — besides starting pitching, that is — what other factors contribute at a significant level to run production and run prevention (and, therefore, wins and losses).

Q. The gentleman from California has given the team wOBAs of the Phillies and Reds sans each respective team’s best hitter. Is there a new rule of which I’m unaware that expressly forbids each team from playing its best hitter? Are there any other reasons why neither Jayson Werth nor Joey Votto would play in these games?

Q. Does the gentleman from California’s face hurt? Because it’s sure hurting me.

Cross Examination: Affirmative Answers
In which the Affirmative responds.

A. Yes, there are other things. Like, let’s say a bullpen. The Phillies’ bullpen had a 3.87 FIP this year, the Reds a 3.90. Look at their closers – Brad Lidge (3.87 FIP, 4.06 xFIP) versus Francisco Cordero (3.92 FIP, 4.53 xFIP). “Lights-out” Lidge ain’t great, but at least he’s no Co-Co. The Phillies, in a remarkable twist of fate for that franchise, own the mound in this series.

A. There are ways to deal with singular, impressive hitters. I know that the sabres can rattle in some circles when you mention the intentional walk, but walking Joey Votto and facing Scott Rolen doesn’t quite have the same “scaritude factor” as walking Chase Utley to get to Ryan Howard. The point is, the Phillies lineup is scary from top to bottom. The Reds have some good hitters, but they also have Orlando Cabrera and his .303 OBP (.292 wOBA) in the second spot in the lineup. Thanks Dusty!

A. The gentleman from Wisconsin is no gentle man. If he would like to get petty, I’d get down in the muck with him, but I’ve shown I can be the better man and continue with the discourse at hand.

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They got it right. Hideki Matsui was unequivocally the right choice for World Series MVP. His raw numbers were incredible. In 15 plate appearances, the Phillies only managed to get Matsui out 5 times. His 8 hits, 2 doubles, and 2 HRs add up to a .761 wOBA.

Of course, context neutral numbers don’t tell the whole story. in the clinching game 6, Matsui’s grand night tallied a .339 WPA, effectively single-handedly winning the game for New York. Matsui also led Yankee hitters in game 2, where Matsui’s go-ahead home run led to a .223 WPA and a 3-1 Yankee victory. Overall, Matsui totalled .639 WPA, good for the best in the series.

As such, he was a no-brainer. The more interesting discussion, in my mind, stems from discussions from Wednesday afternoon, prior to game 6, regarding Chase Utley‘s validity as an MVP candidate. As everybody knows, Utley had an impressive series, tying Reggie Jackson’s record with 5 home runs in a World Series. Thanks to an 0-3 dud in game 6, Utley’s line fell to 6-21 with 3 walks, but all 6 of hits went for extra bases, resulting in a .555 wOBA.

Again, we need to give these numbers context. Utley’s two home run games in games 1 and 5 combined for a .455 WPA and his game 4 (2-4, 2B) was worth another .131. Unfortunately for Utley and the Phillies, that accounts for all of his hits in this World Series. His hitless games in games 2, 3, and 6 (all won by the Yankees) combined for a -.377 WPA, essentially cancelling out games 1 and 4.

Utley’s power performance was impressive. Still, we can’t forget about the bad games. Although Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon didn’t have any games, in terms of raw hitting, that compared to Utley. A-Rod, however, put up .269 WPA in game 4 with his game winning double, and Johnny Damon put up .250 in the same game with an RBI single, a hit in the 9th inning, and the legendary double steal that led to the game winning run. Both A-Rod (.330 WPA) and Damon (.421 WPA) had better overall series than Utley, by this measure.

For the Phillies, the best candidate is Cliff Lee. No Phillies hitter consistently put up solid games. Lee more than singlehandedly won game 1 with his memorable complete game (.519 WPA), and pitched well enough in game 5 to lead Philadelphia to their only other series win (.085 WPA). That leaves Lee with .604 WPA for the series, nearly as much as Matsui.

Mariano Rivera, fittingly, finished the game for the Yankees. He did pitch well this series, as he didn’t allow a run, but he only saw one high leverage situation (game 2, +.166 WPA). His contribution was important (total of +.259 WPA), but pales in comparison to Matsui’s and Lee’s, and is still less than Rodriguez and Damon.

The fans got this one right. Hideki Matsui had the game of his MLB career tonight, and he completely deserves this honor.

Game 7, of course, is always living in the realm of “if necessary,” so for all we know any and all analysis on the topic could be moot by tomorrow. However, let’s humor ourselves for a bit. With Cole Hamels having pitched Game 3 on Saturday, he would be on four days’ rest on Thursday for Game 7. With the Phillies now having committed to Pedro Martinez for Game 6, that leaves Charlie Manuel with the choice between J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels.

The real answer here is both. There is absolutely no reason, in a Game 7 situation with essentially every pitcher available besides the Game 6 starter, that a starting pitcher should be allowed to face the lineup more than one time. This is the reason that the league average FIP for starters (roughly 4.45) is so much higher than that for relievers (roughly 4.20). This difference is even more exaggerated when we consider short relievers and remove mop-up types from consideration. This is because the short reliever does not need to pace himself, and doesn’t have to face a lineup the second time, and especially not a third time, where the starter suffers even more.

Apart from Hamels (3.72 FIP as a starter) and Happ (4.46 FIP as a starter), the Phillies could also call on Joe Blanton (4.45 FIP as a starter) off three days rest to pitch an inning or two. They also have Chan Ho Park (2.10 reliever FIP), Ryan Madson (3.23), and Brad Lidge (5.45 FIP, but 3.19 career).

Between these six pitchers, the Phillies could easily get nine quality innings. The difference between starting and relieving comes out to nearly a run, but just for the sake of argument, let’s use a more conservative estimate of .75. Then we see Hamels at roughly 3.00 FIP, and Happ and Blanton sitting at roughly 3.75. Park is probably not a 2.10 FIP true talent, and probably is closer to his 3.90 average from the last two years. Madson has been at 3.20 the last two years, but was at 4.20 as recently as 2007. He fits closer to 3.50 FIP for our estimate. Lidge, on the other hand, has a 2.19 FIP season in 2008 and a 3.88 FIP season in 2007. Giving weight to recent performance, a good estimate for Lidge would be 3.95.

In that case, consider this pitching plan. Hamels starts, pitches three innings. Happ relieves for two innings, and then hands off to Blanton, Park, Lidge, and Madson in some order to finish the game. At no point do the Phillies have to rely on a player with a reliever FIP above 4.00. Leaving Hamels or Happ in past the first part of the lineup would certainly result in a worse pitcher on the mound in the 3rd or 4th inning.

Regardless of how they do it, the Philadelphia Phillies will need any competitive advantage they can get if they reach a Game 7, where they will be facing one of the league’s top pitchers in C.C. Sabathia, and will also have to deal with Mariano Rivera at some point in the game. Runs will likely be at a premium, and this is the Phillies best bet at suppressing the Yankees offense in Game 7.

The defending World Champions came away with a win against the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday. Starter Cliff Lee, obtained from Cleveland at mid-season, threw a complete game and allowed just six hits. He did not walk a batter and he struck out five Colorado hitters.

Lee threw 70% of his pitches for strikes against the Colorado batters. The opposing hitters who had the most luck against him were outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, both of whom had two hits.

Lee’s strategy was clear in the game: Pitch off of the fastball. The Colorado batters were unable to handle his combination of velocity, movement and location. In the first inning of the game, 11 of Lee’s 14 pitches were fastballs. Fast-forward to the ninth inning and 15 of Lee’s 17 pitches were four-seam fastballs (the other two pitches were a curveball and a changeup). In the final frame, Lee’s fastball ranged from 88-94 mph – including the last pitch of the inning, which was a 94 mph heater that third baseman Garrett Atkins swung through. Lee’s best pitch all year has been his fastball (18.1 wFB) so he stuck to his strengths and he had success.

Today, the Phillies will send Cole Hamels to the mound against Colorado’s veteran hurler Aaron Cook. Hamels will likely look to set up the Rockies hitters with his fastball before going to his changeup for outs (11.7 wCH). The Rockies that have had the most success hitting changeups include first baseman Todd Helton, right-fielder Brad Hawpe, and center-fielder Dexter Fowler.

Cook is predominantly a sinker-ball pitcher (56.7 GB%), who also utilizes a slider mostly to throw off hitters’ timings. The key for the Phillies hitters will be to concentrate on driving the ball hard, and to not worry about trying to lift the ball or hit the long ball. Career-wise, a number of Phillies hitters have had success against Cook, including Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth. Pinch-hitter Matt Stairs is a perfect 3-for-3 against Cook in his career, including a homer.

The Graduate: J.A. Happ | Born: October 1982 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Oddly enough, the Phillies did not employee any rookie long enough in 2008 to expire his rookie status, but instead of leaving this space blank I thought we could take a quick look at J.A. Happ who could be in line for more playing time in 2009. Happ was valuable in his brief time in Philly because of his versatility, as he made four relief appearances and four starts. His stuff is nothing special (although the fastball is hard to pick up and has good movement) and he allowed a few too many walks (3.98 BB/9), but he limited the hits (7.96 H/9) and struck out his fair share of batters (7.69 K/9)

The Riser: Michael Taylor | Born: December 1985 | Outfielder

You could make the argument for a few names in this spot, which is great news for the organization, but I went with Michael Taylor because he made a bigger jump from where he was in 2007. The hulking outfielder (6-6, 260 pounds) was not even considered to be among the organization’s top prospects entering into 2008, after being drafted out of Stanford in the fifth round of the 2007 amateur draft. He split the season between both A-ball affiliates and hit .361/.441/.554 with a .193 ISO in Lakewood and .329/.380/.560 with a .230 ISO in Clearwater.

The Tumbler: Joe Savery | Born: November 1985 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Joe Savery all but disappeared while pitching in High-A ball in 2008. He was drafted 17th overall out of Rice University in the 2007 draft – and would have been taken higher if not for his history of injuries. Savery’s stuff was not at all like it used to be, especially with his fastball missing oomph. He allowed rates of 10.24 H/9, 3.59 BB/9 and 7.30 K/9. The 2009 season will be huge for Savery, who needs to get back on track to realize his former potential.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jason Knapp | Born: August 1990 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jason Knapp was drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft out of a New Jersey high school and immediately made himself known in Rookie ball. Knapp posted a 2.61 ERA in seven appearances and allowed just 26 hits in 31 innings. He also posted rates of 3.48 BB/9 and 11.03 K/9.

The ’09 Sleeper: Drew Naylor | Born: May 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Drew Naylor, an Australian, had a nice first full season in professional baseball, after spending the previous two years in short-season ball. He allowed 69 hits as well as rates of 2.16 BB/9 and 10.00 K/9 in 87.1 A-ball innings, before moving up to High-A where he allowed 86 hits and rates of 3.58 BB/9 and 6.81 K/9 in 78 innings. Naylor must continue to improve his secondary pitches – a curveball and change-up – which complement his low-90s fastball.

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