Archive for Pirates

Let me tell you a couple of things about Jack Suwinski. First, when Suwinski was still a prospect last winter, Eric Longenhagen had this to say about the young player’s future:

30. Jack Suwinski, DH

“On-paper performance is especially important for a hitter like Suwinski because he’s a positionless defender who needs to rake to have any sort of big league role […] Because he lacks a true position, Suwinski’s chances of playing a significant role increase with the likely implementation of the universal DH.”

It’s rare to see a prospect listed as a designated hitter. Across all 30 lists our team put together last year, only nine ranked prospects had the letters “DH” written next to their name. That’s less than one percent. Even more unusual was the 20/20 grade Eric gave Suwinksi’s fielding tool. That’s the worst grade you can get: a present 20 and a future 20. Essentially, it means a guy is unplayable in the field with little to no hope of improving in the future. Often, the only time you’ll see a 20/20 in any category is to describe a catcher’s speed. Former FanGraphs prospect guru Kiley McDaniel didn’t even bother to define a 20 grade in his overview of the 20-80 scouting scale, explaining “It’s almost never relevant for players that I’ll be writing about or any of their tools.” Read the rest of this entry »

Yes, we collapsed in the second half, but if we get some pitching help in the offseason, we could contend next year. #talklikeapirateday

— Ruben Bolling (@RubenBolling) September 19, 2012

We can fairly well predict that the Pirates are not going to make the playoffs this year, for the 20th straight season. They still have a fighting chance at their first winning record in two decades, as they stand at 74-74 after Game 148, but that looked almost like a lock before their 11-17 August and their 4-13 September.

So why do the Pirates always suck in September? If you look at the team’s win totals, month by month, from 1993-2011 — their record 19 straight losing seasons, you see a remarkable pattern emerge:

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are 36-32, two games back in their division and one game behind the Mets or Giants for the second wild card spot. The last time the Pirates were playing this well was July 25, 2011, after James McDonald pitched very well in a road game against the Braves. The next night, the Pirates lost the infamous 19-inning contest and were never the same again. They won 19 of their final 61 games and finished 72-90.

Losing that particular game wasn’t the real reason the team floundered down the stretch. Their pitching was solid but the offense was relatively inept. Some pitchers regressed after performing above their heads, but the offense never improved. It wasn’t a talented enough core, and their prized deadline acquisition — Derrek Lee — got hurt after five games and essentially missed a month. His gaudy .337/.398/.584 slash line with the Pirates was misleading, as he returned to action after the team was clearly out of the race.

Ryan Ludwick didn’t help matters either, as he sputtered after joining the team. However, despite my inclinations at the time, the Pirates were smart to look for players like Lee and Ludwick. While those players are perceived as marginal upgrades if used in specific roles for most offenses, the Pirates didn’t have most offenses. These players weren’t costly and potentially represented significant improvements to the Pirates situation.

Seeing as they are approaching similar territory this year, the team has another important decision to make: go for broke and trade valuable prospects for impact major league talent, or look for this year’s version of Lee and Ludwick.

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The Pirates were playing above their true talent level as the trade deadline approached, sporting a record that Pittsburgh’s paltry run differential wasn’t bound to support in the long-term. But at the time an outside shot still existed that the team could stave off regression for another two months and improbably win the National League Central. Moves needed to be made to bolster the Pirates’ chance for success. The roster had some holes — ones where even marginal players would represent significant upgrades.

Winning the division would have been icing on the cake, but finishing above .500 was a more feasible goal. After 18 straight losing seasons, an 82-80 record was an alluring-enough outcome given what it would mean to the struggling organization.

Instead, the Pirates have experienced their worst-case scenario. Consider:

July 15: 4-0 win vs Houston, 48-43 record, t-1st in NL Central
July 20: 3-1 loss vs Cincinnati, 51-45, 1/2 game back in NL Central
July 22-24: Drop 2 of 3 to St. Louis, 52-47, t-1st in NL Central
July 25-28: Split four-game series with Atlanta, 54-49, 1 1/2 games back
July 29-31: Swept by Philadelphia, 54-52, 4 1/2 games back
July 30: Acquire Derrek Lee from Orioles
July 31: Acquire Ryan Ludwick from Padres
Aug 1-7: Swept by Cubs and Padres, 54-59, 10 games back
Aug 12-14: Swept by Milwaukee, 56-63, 13 games back

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Moving right along in our look at the top ten offensive swings in win expectancy, we find ourselves at spot number eight, which happens to involve another member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They might not know how to win, but apparently they know how to win big. The eighth biggest offensive play of the season took place on April 14, when the Pirates visited the Dodgers. Hiroki Kuroda took on Zach Duke, and both delivered somewhat stellar performances. Duke failed to strike out a batter but still recorded a quality start, and Kuroda had finished his first three starts with a 5.0 K/BB and 2.89 ERA. Still, Kuroda’s outing was not enough to end with a victory for the Dodgers. The game graph is below:

The Pirates took an early lead thanks to a two-run home run off the bat of Jose Bautista, but the Dodgers slowly crawled back into the game. Shockingly, their first run came on the heels of an Andruw Jones groundout, meaning that Andruw Jones did, in fact, do something productive. Kuroda then helped his own cause later in the game with an RBI double to knot the game at two.

In the sixth inning, Xavier Nady hit an RBI double of his own to propel the Pirates to a 3-2 lead. In the next half inning, James Loney and Blake DeWitt delivered RBI singles of their own to put the Dodgers in front for the first time at 4-3. When the ninth inning rolled around, the Dodgers led by the same score, and closer Takashi Saito entered the game. At this juncture, the Pirates had a 14.5% probability of winning the game. Doug Mientciewicz flew out to start the frame, reducing their expectancy to 7.8%. Jose Bautista followed with a single, before Saito struck out Luis Rivas. With two outs, and a runner on first base, the Pirates’ win expectancy was just 7.1%.

Adam LaRoche singled to centerfield, moving pinch-runner Brian Bixler up to second base. With two outs and runners on first and second, their win expectancy rose to just 13.2%. Nate McLouth then stepped up to the plate. He took ball one, but on the second pitch, launched a three-run dinger into orbit. The Pirates took the 6-4 lead, but unlike the previous two plays documented, his was not a walkoff hit. Their win expectancy rose by 79.6%, from 13.2% to 92.8%. In the bottom of the ninth, Matt Capps recorded a 1-2-3 save, capping (pun totally intended) quite the unexpected result in this ballgame.

Over the next couple of weeks, I will be taking a look at the biggest swings in win expectancy this season by discussing the top ten hitting and pitching plays via WPA, win probability added. Our first play, the tenth biggest swing amongst all hitting plays this season, occurred on July 12, in a slugfest between the Cardinals and Pirates. The Cardinals were still technically in the playoff race, while the Pirates, well, were not. The Buccos would go onto win this back and forth affair by the final score of 12-11, and the game graph can be seen below.

As you may have gathered, Michaels’ big play is that very steep final spike in the win probability. The former roommate of Pat Burrell at the University of Miami had started the season on the Cleveland Indians before being traded to the Pirates at around the beginning of May. Since arriving in Pittsburgh, Michaels had only hit .242/.299/.394 in pinch-hitting and spot-starting duty. Suffice it to say, he had not produced the way Neal Huntington hoped for when he was acquired.

In the bottom of the ninth inning, the Pirates trailed 10-6. Jason Isringhausen came in to close the door, but things did not go as planned. After Michaels walked and Jack Wilson singled, Nate McLouth launched a three-run homer to bring the Pirates within one run. Having seen enough, Tony La Russa lifted Isringhause and brought in Kyle McClellan. Luis Rivas greeted McClellan with a single. Ryan Doumit followed with a single of his own, advancing Rivas to third base. Jason Bay then hit into a fielders choice, knotting the game at ten runs apiece. Xavier Nady was retired to end the inning, but the Pirates had come back from a four-run deficit in the ninth inning.

The top of the tenth essentially erased that hard work, as Troy Glaus led the inning off with a home run served up by Denny Bautista. Bautista would then go onto retire the side, but the Cardinals had taken an 11-10 lead, setting up Michaels’ big play. When Bautista struck out Joe Mather to end the inning, the Pirates had a 20.6% chance of winning the game.

McClellan began the bottom of the tenth inning by giving up a single to Raul Chavez. He was then lifted in favor of Carlos Perez, with the Pirates’ win expectancy rising to 34%. Jose Bautista then flied out to shortstop, reducing their expectancy to 21.4%. Michaels stepped into the box. He took ball one from Perez, giving him a 1-0 count. The next pitch did not get the chance to register as a ball or strike because Michaels launched it into orbit, over the outfield wall, a two-run homer that gave the Pirates the 12-11 win.

After trailing 10-6 in the bottom of the ninth, they had scored six runs to come back with the walkoff victory. Michaels’ home run skyrocketed their expectancy to 100%, since they won, meaning the dinger was worth 78.6% of win expectancy, the tenth highest ranked batting play this past season. Following the home run, Michaels continued to struggle, putting up a .211/.292/.344 line the rest of the season. He may not have his option exercised this off-season, but hey, at least he finished in the top ten in some category!

In looking at Brian McCann yesterday I found some interesting parallels between his numbers and those of Pirates backstop Ryan Doumit. Considering the definite lack of national attention thrust upon the Pirates it is pretty safe to say most of non-fantasy baseball playing fans have next to no idea who he is or what he has done this year. With that in mind, here are some Doumit facts:

• In 75 games he is hitting .336/.377/.549
• That .926 OPS ranks 11th best in the NL amongst those with 300+ PAs
• His SLG ranks 12th best with those same parameters
• He has an AB/HR rate of 23.8, which is in the same vicinity as David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto
• His 2.18 REW is ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, and Chase Utley
• His 1.70 WPA/LI ranks ahead of Dan Uggla, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Derrek Lee
• His 13.3% strikeout rate falls in the lowest twenty-five percent
• His BABIP is a very high .356
• That BABIP isn’t too crazy considering his 23.2% LD rate (.232+.120 = .352!)
• His in-season Marcel estimates a .259/.336/.432 clip with six home runs to finish the year
• That would end his season at .307/.361/.505, good for 18 HR and an .866 OPS

In other words, Doumit has put together a very solid line of stats that are due for a regression but will still look good at season’s end. Though most of the general public has no idea who he is, he has actually been better to date in numerous areas than several all-stars and MVP candidates.

Back on April 22, I wrote a post titled “Nasty Nate McLouth“, dissecting the hot start of the Pirates outfielder. He had a ridiculously high BABIP at the time which led to quite the inflated slash line. Additionally, while sustaining a very similar walk rate he had drastically reduced his strikeout percentage. Here are some of his numbers at the time of the first post and his overall numbers as we speak:

Apr 22: .403 BABIP, .375/.444/.639, 1.082 OPS, 12.5 K%
Today: .288 BABIP, .281/.361/.523, .885 OPS, 13.8 K%

As expected, his BABIP dropped significantly, and his slash line fell as a result. His strikeout rate has increased a bit but the 13.8% is still much lower than the 23.4% of last year. Speaking of the 2007 season, McLouth now has virtually the same amount of at-bats this year as last. Here are his numbers from the last two years:

2007: 85-329, 48 1B, 21 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 39 BB, 77 K, .258/.351/.489
2008: 92-327, 46 1B, 28 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 34 BB, 45 K, .281/.362/.523

Things appear very similar with the exception of the strikeouts and added power; McLouth’s increase in doubles and home runs has led to not only the higher batting average but the higher slugging percentage as well. His ISO in 2007 was .201 compared to the .242 so far this year. Unfortunately, or fortunately if you are a Pirates fan, he actually gets lost in the shuffle a bit because the entire Bucs outfield is producing at a high level.

Amongst NL outfielders, McLouth ranks 8th in WPA (1.54) and 7th in WPA/LI (1.56). Jason Bay and Xavier Nady rank ahead of him in both areas. McLouth’s 22.58 BRAA and 2.24 REW rank third amongst NL outfielders, though, higher than both of his teammates. He has cooled off quite a bit since riding the coattails of a 19-game hitting streak early in the season but he is still producing at a high level; or at least much higher than we might have expected entering the season. I also would not be surprised if he has earned his first All-Star berth given his solid numbers and the fact that surprising players make good stories.

While surfing through my MLB Extra Innings package the other night I came across a bottom line statistic that piqued my interest: Pirates outfielders had (at the time) a .904 OPS, which led all of baseball. I knew Nate McLouth had gotten off to a scorching start; that Jason Bay had seemingly begun to bounce back from a disappointing 2007; and that Xavier Nady had been producing better than many gave him credit for. What I did not know, however, was that these three have arguably been the most productive outfield in the entire sport.

Looking first at their OPS, the Pirates trio all ranks in the top fifteen amongst major league outfielders. McLouth comes in 5th at .940; Bay in 7th at .932; and Nady in 14th at .886. There are no other threesomes in the top fifteen and, in fact, the only other outfields in the top thirty-five belong to the Cubs and Giants; however, Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, Kosuke Fukudome, Aaron Rowand, Fred Lewis, and Randy Winn all have a lower OPS than Nady’s .886.

When combined, the Pirates outfield is currently 229-768, in 892 PAs, complete with 55 doubles, 3 triples, 39 home runs, and 114 walks or hit by pitches. Ultimately, they are hitting .298/.385/.535, good for a .920 OPS.

Reverting to WPA furthers their case: all three are in the top twelve amongst major league outfielders. Bay ranks 3rd with a 2.81 WPA; McLouth is 9th at 1.76; and Nady comes in at 12th with a 1.56. Added together, these three have contributed 6.13 wins.

Pat Burrell is far and away the outfield leader, at 4.40, but the next closest Phillies OF Shane Victorino has a -0.96 WPA. Additionally, both Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew rank in the top ten with a combined 4.64; however, even with Jacoby Ellsbury added in they increase only to 5.26, still almost a full win lower than the Bucs.

If I had to put money on it I would say the Red Sox will surpass the Pirates by the end of the season but, almost halfway through 2008, the 34-37 Pittsburgh Pirates have the most productive outfield in the game.

When the Pirates cut ties with Matt Morris they needed to replace his spot in the rotation. Opting to fill the role with someone already on the major league club, reliever Phil Dumatrait soon found himself a starter. Since assuming the position he has performed quite well; in fact, he has pitched better than in his relief appearances:

SP: 8 G, 44.2 IP, 35 H, 22 BB, 33 K, 3.22 ERA
RP: 10 G, 20.2 IP, 22 H, 13 BB, 13 K, 3.92 ERA

In terms of WPA, Dumatrait clocks in at -0.65 as a reliever but +0.28 as a starter; the +0.28 makes him the most productive Pirates starting pitcher. Additionally, his relief WPA took a severe hit in one outing—with a -0.666. His overall WPA comes in at -0.37 whereas he has a 0.49 WPA/LI and 0.28 REW.

Overall, Dumatrait is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.31 K/BB. He isn’t the best at keeping runners off base but has stranded 75.8% of them.

Looking at his splits vs. batter handedness, lefties have made up just 20.3% of his total batters faced but he has handled them quite effectively:

RHB: 224 PA, .250/.327/.393, 24 BB, 33 K
LHB: 57 PA, .182/.368/.205, 11 BB, 13 K

He has kept batters to a quite low opposing OPS but batters produce better as the leverage of a situation increases:

High Lev.: 48 PA, .211/.313/.395, .707 OPS, .182 BABIP
Med Lev.: 105 PA, .227/.352/.352, .705 OPS, .271 BABIP
Low Lev.: 128 PA, .254/.331/.351, .682 OPS, .311 BABIP

His opposing OPS increases as the importance of the situation increases while their BABIP decreases. The Pirates have been a surprising 30-33 this season (better than many expected at this point) and Dumatrait’s seamless efforts in filling a rotation spot has been one of the major reasons. With their other starters underperforming it will be key for Phil the Pirate Swingman to sustain this general range of performance.