Archive for Prospects

The first experience I had with Will Smith was watching several people engaged in conversation about what song he should use as his walk-up music. Will’s expression implied that this was not the first time he’d heard such suggestions, but to his credit, he did settle on a few expected classics. After all, Bel Air is only about 20 miles from Chavez Ravine.

The second experience I had with Will Smith was witnessing him throwing the ball down to second base. Quick footwork and an ultra-quick release caused some wide-eyed double-takes aimed at stopwatches in the dugout at Lindquist Field in Ogden, Utah. Times ranged as low as 1.73 and few were higher than the upper-1.8’s. Smith’s athleticism and throwing ability behind the plate was immediately evident to the excited player development staff on hand.

In his first two years at his hometown University of Louisville, Smith hit a total of 15 extra-base hits in 300 plate appearances, showing good bat-to-ball skills but otherwise not a ton of offensive impact. His brief stint in the Cape Cod League after his sophomore season showed much of the same – he was a good athlete who looked like he should be able to provide value behind the plate (a position that was not familiar to Smith upon entering college, as he played the infield in high school), but not packing much punch with the bat.

Louisville’s 2016 team was loaded with draft prospects, and Smith’s performance put him in the same conversations as teammates Corey Ray, Zack Burdi, Drew Harrington, and Kyle Funkhouser. He matched his extra-base hit total from the previous two years combined in almost 100 fewer plate appearances while walking more than he struck out. His defensive prowess behind the plate was on full display as well, as he excelled while catching an impressive pitching staff that included the aforementioned Harrington and Funkhouser as starters, Burdi as a reliever, and then-sophomore Brendan McKay in the rotation.

Like many organizations, the Dodgers were enamored with Smith’s athleticism, high probability of staying behind the plate, and contact skills. The newly developing power pushed Smith’s ceiling even higher and he steadily crept his way up the draft board as the season went along and the power kept coming. The Dodgers had three first-round picks that year and used the first, the 20th overall pick, on Wisconsin high school shortstop Gavin Lux. With the second, the 32nd pick, the organization stayed within the skillset of up-the-middle players with good contact skills and selected Smith. Read the rest of this entry »

Editor’s Note: Josh Herzenberg spent three years as an area scout covering North Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas for the Dodgers. He also spent two years coaching, one with the Ogden Raptors and one with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, predominantly working with pitchers and helping to integrate analytics into preparation for minor leaguers. He pitched at Oneonta State and has a Master’s Degree from Georgetown. He currently lives in New York City, where he works in finance, and will be contributing here at FanGraphs.

As someone born and raised in the northeast, the beginning of the professional baseball season has always been a marker, of sorts, of springtime finally arriving. That didn’t change in 2019, as Sunday afternoon’s Low-A matinee between the Phillies’ Lakewood Blueclaws and the Rangers’ Hickory Crawdads brought pleasant weather, plenty of sunshine, and some intriguing players to New Jersey. What follows are some of my notes from that game, with each player’s Top 100 and organizational ranking per Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel indicated where applicable.

Lakewood

Alec Bohm, 3B, Top 100 Rank: 66, Org Rank: 2
Bohm was the third overall pick out of Wichita State in 2018, lauded as a player with a chance to make an impact as a power hitting third baseman. Physically, he stands out on the field as advertised, with an XL frame and broad, strapping shoulders. There might be some more room to fill out the frame but that also might not be necessary – he’s a large human being already. Bohm smoked a double into right center field in his second plate appearance in what was an otherwise underwhelming day for him. The double – off an elevated sinker out over the plate – was a glimpse of Bohm’s ability to drive the ball, but I’m not convinced he’s going to be able to tap into that power consistently enough for it to make the impact the Phillies were likely hoping it would when they selected him in last year’s draft. He’s very compact and fails to get his hands extended through the zone, resulting in him effectively jamming himself and forcing him to work with a smaller hitting zone because of it.

Defensively, Bohm showed plenty of arm to stay at third base and his footwork was fine. He has long, loping strides and is a slower twitch mover, showing below average range on a play to his left, and running below average times on the basepaths throughout the day. I wouldn’t rule out his ability to stay at the hot corner long term but he will need to work on staying agile as he gets bigger in order to do so. The frame and the power is evident, but the bat path and lack of quick twitch drew some mild concerns in this one game look.

Luis Garcia, SS, Top 100 Rank: NA, Org Rank: 4
Garcia will play the entire 2019 season at age 18 and by the looks of his game on Sunday, he should have no trouble holding his own in the South Atlantic League. An undersized, scrappy middle infielder who made his professional debut last year, Garcia presents himself as more of a jack-of-all-trades player than one with a singular carrying tool. He’s a slick fielder at shortstop with enough arm to stay there and he showed good baseball IQ defensively, especially for a teenager, enough to assume he has the potential to play a super utility role in the future, which would ostensibly bode well given Phillies manager Gabe Kapler’s affinity for versatility. Garcia doesn’t pack a huge punch at the plate but showed a compact, rhythmic approach and good patience. I could foresee an average hit tool at his ceiling with power production that is more doubles- than home run-oriented. Garcia has the ceiling of an everyday player, but also likely has a higher-than-usual utility infielder type floor given his current level of polish.

Francisco Morales, RHP, Top 100 Rank: NA, Org Rank: 9
Morales is another intriguing teenage talent on a roster full of them, and threw well in his South Atlantic League debut on Sunday. A tall, fairly full framed 6-foot-4 right-handed pitcher, Morales fits the bill physically as a workhorse and showed the early makings of a power arm. His fastball ranged from 92-95, touching 96, as he worked into the fifth inning. He showed good plane and was able to generate life through the zone. He leaned fairly heavily on a quality slider in the mid-80s, a short breaker that he seemed to have feel to manipulate to move either horizontally or vertically at will. It showed big league average consistently, with a chance to be better in the future.

Morales’s arm action is just fair, with a long, offline plunging type action and some effort at release. He moves athletically enough to repeat his delivery – especially on his slider – but there is some cause for concern with respect to long term sustainability and lack of a present third pitch to project a starter role long term. I think Morales settles in as a quality right-handed reliever long term with two offerings that are at least 55s, but would give him every chance to start at this point as the body, arm strength, and ability to spin a quality breaking ball stand out.

Victor Santos, RHP, Top 100 Rank: NA, Org Rank: 27
Santos continued Lakewood’s trend of making most evaluators (including this one) feel old, as he won’t be turning 19 until July. An average sized right-handed pitcher who looks relatively generic upon first glance, Santos impressed with his command and his ability to change speeds in Sunday’s extended relief look. After walking less than 2% of the batters he faced in the GCL in 2018, he continued his advanced command in this four inning outing, throwing 38 strikes against just 16 balls. He featured a three pitch mix, with a tailing fastball that worked 88-91, a short, low-80s slider, and a diving low-80s changeup. The changeup was the better of the two off-speed pitches on this day and he seemed comfortable with it in any count.

Santos is off to a fast start in his career and while only his changeup showed as a major league average offering on Sunday, he could have the ability to move quickly through the lower levels of the minor leagues due to his command and feel to change speeds. He’ll be worth monitoring moving forward to see how the stuff plays against better competition, and if it improves as he matures.

Hickory

Chris Seise, SS, Top 100 Rank: NA, Org Rank: 12
Seise was somewhat of a late riser in the 2017 high school draft class, enough that the Rangers decided to take him with the 29th overall pick out of West Orange High School in Central Florida. Seise flashed some power in his first pro season after signing but missed all of 2018 due to right rotator cuff surgery and is now back on the field and healthy in meaningful games for the first time in about 19 months. At 20 years old, Seise certainly looks the part of a big leaguer, filling out his uniform well with a high waist and very broad shoulders.

He has fluid, athletic actions defensively and moves both ways at shortstop with no problem. His first step quickness is probably about average at this point, which brings up some questions about his ability to stay at shortstop long term as he continues to get bigger. He showed no throwing issues during warmups and made just a few throws in game play, all of which were below average but didn’t necessitate more. I’ll reserve judgment on the arm strength until another look but for now, I’d say there’s enough risk that he doesn’t stay at shortstop due to the first step risk that assessing utility options – whether it be third base or center field (Seise is a plus runner underway presently) – could happen as early as 2019 Instructional League.

Offensively, Seise has something of an all-or-nothing approach, with plus bat speed and strength in his swing. There is some inherent swing-and-miss risk, but he has the ability to impact the baseball. Seise has everyday upside but carries a lot of risk due to questions about where he ends up defensively and if he’ll make enough contact to actualize his impressive athleticism and strength in the box.

Dylan Bice, RHP, Top 100 Rank: NA, Org Rank: NA
Bice was drafted in the 23rd round of the 2016 draft out of a Georgia high school and spent three years in the AZL, including a 2018 season that saw him throw just three innings. Now 21, Bice was impressive in his full season debut on Sunday, throwing 21 of 29 pitches for strikes in two innings of relief. He is a big bodied right-handed pitcher, standing at 6-foot-4 and listed at 220 pounds, although he looks a bit more than that.

He has a long arm stroke and a violent, effort-filled release that generally leads to both reliever projection and command questions long term. I do think Bice is a reliever, but he showed no command issues on this day. His fastball was 94-97 and averaged 96, with steep downhill plane and life through the zone. He throws from a high slot and could probably bode well working up in the zone with his fastball. His breaking ball, sort of a tweener, is currently an 82-85 mph slider that should probably be a curveball to play off a north-south profile long term. Bice showed some feel to spin the pitch and while it is fringy now, it could get to average with better shape. A big bodied reliever without a plus off-speed pitch isn’t someone who generally turns into anything more than a player with marginal impact at baseball’s highest level, but Bice is worth monitoring moving forward due to the big frame and arm strength.

Heading into the season, there were a lot of question marks about the Dodgers rotation, but so far, the team’s struggling offense and bullpen have received a big boost from a pitching staff led by Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda; their starters currently rank fifth in WAR. Ross Stripling has been a nice early surprise for the team, and while Alex Wood’s ERA remains too high, his underlying metrics suggest that he still can help the team. Scott Kazmir’s struggles are perhaps most worrisome, but if he can stop giving up home runs, he should be serviceable as well.

And if any of the big leaguers falter, there is help on the way. In the minors, Jose De Leon made his first start of the 2016 season on Tuesday, the delay being partly due to a minor ankle injury and also the product of an effort to keep his innings low in the early going. When de Leon’s debut came the day before Julio Urias’ most recent start, I decided to watch both via MILB.tv.

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As Susan Slusser with the San Francisco Chronicle reported on Wednesday, Sean Manaea will be called up to start Friday’s game in Oakland against Mike Fiers and the Houston Astros. Manaea made a decent case for making the rotation out of spring training, tallying 16 strikeouts in 14.1 innings, but the seven walks allowed over the same period gave the A’s enough reason to start him in Triple-A Nashville.

Across three starts in Nashville, he has been lights out on the mound. Only three runs have crossed the plate against him in 18 innings pitched, while 21 batters have struck out and just four have reached via free passes. That level of performance was enough for Oakland to feel comfortable bringing him up to the majors in lieu of a fourth appearance for the Sounds. But what can we expect from him out of this start, and (presumably) those going forward in an A’s uniform?

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The Nationals have an extremely interesting system, highlighted by a handful of consensus big-upside prospects in Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Reynaldo Lopez. Though it doesn’t have the name recognition throughout that some of the top-rated teams have, this is one of the more exciting organizations to cover as a prospector (prospectator?). The Auburn and Hagerstown affiliates may end up being the most exciting groups to watch by mid-season.

In general, the Nationals seem to have found a niche bringing in a ton of underrated hit-tool-heavy guys that are hitting their stride at the same time. Expect a lot of turnover with this list by next year, as the top guys are due for full-time gigs in Washington, and the upside prospects start to separate themselves a bit more. If you could criticize any part of the system, there are a few less high-upside arms in the lower minors than many teams like to stockpile. In terms of total value, however, this group doesn’t have a problem stacking up against the rest of the league.

Following the top four are a sizable number of 50+ prospects who provide the big-league club with sufficient low-cost resources to hold them over until their talented crop of players in the lower levels have time to sort themselves out. Though I find myself lower on a few popular prospects like Pedro Severino, Juan Soto and Rafael Bautista, I am equally more enthusiastic than most on less established players like Telmito Agustin, Kelvin Gutierrez and Taylor Hearn.

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The top of the Blue Jays system saw an almost complete overhaul with the trades and promotions of the past year. It obviously has been for the best, as many of the organization’s first-year contributors played well last season — even if the minor leagues appear a little barren at a quick glance. Fortunately, the system remains filled with a lot of upside at the lower levels, and recent drafts have only helped to strengthen that depth, even if it is of the higher risk variety.

Anthony Alford is the only impact bat I see, with a few potentially useful position players in above the 45+ future-value line. Rowdy Tellez and Richard Urena both have upside with the bats, but each has enough question marks to keep them from being reliable prospects to project at the big-league level. I still like Max Pentecost’s chances of becoming an average producer, though that possibility is very dependent on his ability to return to health.

The pitching side is a bit stronger at the moment, headlined by Conner Greene and Sean Reid-Foley. I like both of their chances of remaining starters and being solid contributors, and there are a slew of lower-level hurlers with interesting qualities that could jump up this list by next year.

The strength of this system may be in the 40+ FV players and those who are just off the list. That group is filled with tremendous raw athletes, bounceback candidates and recent draftees with moderate upsides. While those kinds of profiles are risky for counting on any one prospect, the sheer volume of guys they have in those categories bodes well for a couple of them putting things together and moving toward higher end of the list.

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The Rangers have assembled a pretty amazing collection of talent, one that enabled them to participate actively in the trade market last season without mortgaging their long-term success. They have an impressive mix of offense and defense among their higher-end prospects, though the hitters in this system, particularly, give them one of the best offensive pipelines in the league. Not only have they continued to be aggressive on the international market, but they are making solid picks in the draft and seem to have figured something out as an organization when it comes to bringing athletic hitters along.

You’ll see mostly familiar names at the top of the list, though Joey Gallo’s ongoing contact issues keep him from appearing ahead of some of the Rangers’ more well-rounded prospects like Lewis Brinson and Nomar Mazara. I’m really expecting big things out of Brinson’s bat, as his combination of present ability and future development is unparalleled by most minor-league hitters in the game. Luis Ortiz is a bit of an enigma for me, because projecting his stuff makes him look like a rotation front-man, but projecting his body may have him resembling a front man from a different discipline.

Perhaps the two biggest surprises are at number seven and eight, with Ronald Guzman and Ariel Jurado appearing higher than elsewhere. Jurado’s presence is mostly a function of my grouping prospects by likely outcome rather than ceiling, since his floor seems to be as a big-league starter. Guzman, however, is a hit-first first baseman who hasn’t shown enough power to be a legitimate future big leaguer, but I like enough about his swing and expected physical development to see more than just good upside.

It’s an exciting time to be a Rangers fan, since their somewhat surprising run at the postseason makes them more fun to watch in the immediate future, while their vast array of quality prospects gives them plenty of ammunition to supplement the team. Should they need more reinforcements beyond promoting their higher-level guys, they have enough quality depth to swing another big trade this season.

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The Rays system has considerable upside and depth throughout its minor-league levels. Reviewing the organization, I was particularly struck with how many pitchers I liked, including many whom I figured wouldn’t be able to stick as starting pitchers but would be very viable members of the bullpen. Indeed, most of their near-ready starting options are already in the majors or well on their way to becoming relievers. Blake Snell and Brent Honeywell give them a lot of upside while the club waits for some of their lower-level pitchers to develop.

Though I find that I’m less sold on many of the more popular bats, or at least those who are closer to the big leagues, there are a ton of options both as future regulars and as valuable role players who can succeed in situational exposure. Luckily, the Rays have been awesome at maximizing those types of assets, so even if more hitting prospects flame out, they have a strong pipeline to supplement the core at the major-league level.

On that note, I really like Kevin Padlo and Adrian Rondon as prospects who will take at least a few years to make it to the parent club. You’ll see I’m much less optimistic on Richie Shaffer and Casey Gillaspie despite their solid years in 2015. Shaffer’s power probably gets him a shot in the big leagues soon, but his lack of overall value makes him a fringe option in my opinion. Gillaspie could just be a case of hand-eye coordination and raw strength making up for unathletic moves, but I need to see him face better pitching before trusting his results more than what I see him doing with the bat, and he too has limited value elsewhere in his profile.

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The Cardinals certainly have tons of mid-level depth. If history continues to repeat itself, that means at least two above-average position players and a high-upside pitcher or two will pop up from the low minors this year, replenishing the lack of “impact” players at the high levels. They continue to target hitters with upside in the hit-tool department, trusting them to develop power or complement it with defensive or base-running value. On the pitching side, it’s like a broken record for a lot of the newer pitchers in the low levels: (Pitcher Name) came in throwing in the high-80s, and now comfortably sits in the low- to mid-90s with more physical projection left to realize.

No one will be excited by the prospects coming up through this system, but you’d be mistaken if you underestimate the player development model they have created in recent years. I had trouble putting a lot of the prospects I like in this system into the 50+ group for various reasons, but the Cardinals have one of the highest numbers of players just outside that line that could step forward this year with the right adjustments.

There are a number of players whom I rank lower than most in this organization, but in all honesty, there’s so much clustering in the middle of the list that it’s just semantics arguing over most of them. Feel free, anyway. Darren Seferina is my top pick for the Cardinals’ patented out-of-nowhere starting position player, with excellent hitting ability and base-running potential to go with potential above-average defense at second base. If you listen carefully, you’ll hear the boo birds gathering forces in the darkest corners of the internet as you read this.

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The Mariners organization won’t be confused for having one of the top farm systems in baseball, but the developments of the past year help bring some legitimate optimism for its future contributions to the big-league product. A number of low- and medium-level trades have bolstered the middle of the pack, with guys like Boog Powell and Nick Wells providing some high-floor, moderate-upside additions to a prospect pool that has seen better years.

On top of that, and maybe most excitingly, the 2015 draft class is already proving to be a kickstart for the organization. Though it’s way too early to anoint a lot of their fresh faces as sure big leaguers, it’s hard to have a better start than what they have put together so far. Drew Jackson and Braden Bishop were both known as excellent defenders, but it was their hitting performances that were the story of the post-draft months. Nick Neidert and Andrew Moore lead a list of 2015 draftees who are quality contenders for at least upper-minors success as pitchers, and both have a reasonable chance of eventually being starters for a major-league team.

The very recent success of the prospect class couldn’t come at a better time, when less recent high draft picks like Alex Jackson and Austin Wilson have seen their stocks plummet in a very short time. Jackson is particularly troubling for me: although you can still see similarities to the hitter he was before being in conversation for a first-overall pick, nearly everything has gone south for him statistically and physically. Though the player development and scouting staffs still have their work cut out for them, new management under Jerry Dipoto promises to at least add some fresh voices to the fold. If you buy into momentum, they have plenty of it heading into the 2016 season and this June’s draft.

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