Archive for Red Sox

Brandon Workman, a 24-year-old Texan, dominated an undermanned New Britain Rockcats lineup over six frigid innings last week. In 2010, he was selected out of the University of Texas by the Red Sox in second round of the Rule 4 Draft. In his first two full seasons he’s posted strong peripherals, striking out more than eight batters per nine innings and walking fewer than two. Early in 2013, he sits near the top of Carson Cistulli’s Eastern League SCOUT Leaderboard (see bottom of this post); but Workman’s statistics are misleading. He profiles as a reliever or as a spot-starter.

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The Red Sox entered this season with high hopes. Fast-forward 122 games and they’re a disappointing 59-63 with just 4% odds of making the playoffs. The front of the rotation has had issues preventing runs. Several members of the lineup have performed below their established level of production. Plenty of key contributors have spent time on the disabled list, and recent reports suggest players have a mutinous relationship with their manager.

Plenty has gone wrong for the 2012 Red Sox, but one of the bright spots has been Cody Ross. The 31-year-old outfielder, who signed for just one year and $3 million, has a .359 wOBA, 122 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR. His strong production has many wondering about his next contract. Ross has said that he’d like to return to Boston, and all signs point to the team having mutual interest. Ross may have put himself in line for a multi-year deal similar to Josh Willingham’s most recent contract — three years and $21 million — despite being less consistent and not as talented. Willingham has produced in the 3 WAR to 4 WAR range during the past several seasons while Ross has been in the 2 WAR to 3 WAR range.

And then there’s this: the main area in which Ross excels — crushing lefties — can be replicated fairly easily. Interested teams may be able to acquire cheaper Ross-like production by considering a few players with similar skill-sets.

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The Indians acquired Lars Anderson from the Red Sox on Tuesday, sending knuckleballing prospect Steven Wright — not to be confused with this guy — to Boston. Anderson was once considered one of the top prospects in the game, but struggled in major league cups of coffee (or shots of espresso given how short his major league stints were in 2011-12) and was never viewed as a viable long-term solution at first base or designated hitter.

From 2008-10, however, he was the talk of the rumor mill. His name popped up in practically every Red Sox trade rumor. Last offseason, the Athletics were interested in him as part of the Andrew Bailey package. In July 2011, the Athletics were close to acquiring him in exchange for Rich Harden.

In 2009, Anderson was frequently discussed as part of a potential prospect package for Roy Halladay. The year before that he was mentioned as a key part of a rumor surrounding then-Padres starter Jake Peavy.

As recently as two years ago, Anderson was viewed as a key part of potential returns on all-stars and award winners. Since then, his stock has fallen to the point that he only netted the Red Sox a risky Double-A knuckleballer.

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Episode Twenty-Three
In which the panel is two doctors in the house.

Headlines
The Red Sox: Freak Out City?
Barry Zito: Same Guy?
Should We Ever Throw Kyle Blanks a Fastball?
A Very Subjective Game Report: KC at Toronto
… and other learned ejaculations!

Featuring
Dave Allen, Doctor of the Heat Map
Matt Klaassen, Doctor of Philosophy of Philosophy

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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Game time: 11:05 ET

Starting Pitchers
Rays: Jeff Niemann (R)
2 GS, 8.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 1 HR, 4.94 FIP, 5.34 xFIP.
Projected FIP: 4.13 (FAN) 4.61 (CHONE) 4.67 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.20 run reverse split in 205.0 IP

Red Sox: John Lackey (R)
2 GS, 12.2 IP, 5 K, 6 BB, 1 HBP, 0 HR, 3.88 FIP, 5.50 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.74 (FAN) 3.90 (ZiPS) 3.96 CHONE 4.18 Marcel
L-R Splits: 0.21 normal split in 1513.2 IP

The Red Sox will be looking to avenge three straight losses to the Rays and four straight overall. They appear to hold the pitching advantage in the last game of this four game set, as John Lackey will take the mound for the Red Sox. Although his 1.42 ERA looks great right now, Lackey has had some issues with control so far, issuing 6 walks against only 5 strikeouts. The ERA is a result of keeping the ball in the ballpark, as we can see from his high xFIP.

Lackey appears to have a completely new approach this year, as he has taken to throwing a cutter – 38% of his pitches have been classified as a cutter so far this year, a pitch with significantly less movement towards a right-handed hitter than his four-seam fastball. His cutter is averaging 89.5 MPH on the year, so far a significant drop off from the 91.6 he averaged on his go-to four-seam fastball last season. He hasn’t completely scrapped the four-seamer – he still uses it over 20% of the time – but the average velocity appears to be lower, sitting at 90.2. It’s very early in the season, but he’s only drawn 6 swinging strikes in 207 pitches – a paltry 2.9%. That number will need to rise for Lackey to be effective as the season continues.

Niemann, similarly, has a low ERA in his first two starts despite poor performance. Niemann hasn’t managed to strike batters out as of yet, and although a 1.08 BB/9 looks nice, he also has hit two batters in only 8.1 innings. His first start ended abruptly, as he was hit on the shoulder by a Miguel Tejada line drive.

Much like with Lackey, the use of a secondary fastball – in this case, a two-seamer – appears to be much more prominent in Niemann’s repertoire this season. Unlike Lackey’s cutter, Niemann’s two-seamer exhibits a sharper break towards a right-handed batter. In his April 13th start against Baltimore, the two-seamer drew 2 swinging strikes in only 27 pitchers, for a swinging strike rate of 7.41%. If his breaking pitches can draw more swinging strikes – only one between 33 changeups, sliders, and curveballs – an increased whiff rate on his fastballs should lead to more strikeouts and, naturally, more success for the second year pitcher.

Neither pitcher exhibits a strong platoon split, and so neither team should be looking to stack the lineup with lefties. Expect the normal lineups for each team today.

The CHONE projected standings originally showed the Red Sox 5 games ahead of the Rays for the AL Wild Card. The FAN projections showed the Rays as within 2 at the start of the season. With the Rays taking the first three games of this series at Fenway Park, the Rays have closed the gap. This is an important game for the AL East and Wild Card races, even though it’s only April, as each team needs all the ground it can get.

Trailing the Rays 2-1, The Red Sox are sending Tim Wakefield to the hill tonight to oppose Andy Sonnanstine in Game Four of the ALCS. Earlier today, Dave documented the offensive woes of last year’s World Series victors, but on top of that, to advance to the World Series, their starting pitching will also need to be sharp. Wakefield, even at 42 years old, can dominate the best of them with that incredible knuckleball, and he will shoulder the responsibility of helping the Sox knot this series up at two games apiece. Much has been discussed about Wakefield’s playoff numbers and his performance against the Rays in the regular season, but honestly, that should not be taken into account.

With such small samples of performance, we cannot accurately predict or understand how a player will perform in a playoff game like this. Lester shut the Rays down to the tune of a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings this season, before giving up four runs in 5 2/3 innings yesterday. Ryan Dempster was untouchable at Wrigley Field and managed to touch everything in Game One of that NLDS. His postseason gamelogs show that he can either be hit or miss, shutting a team down, or allowing plenty of damage in a short time-span. The Rays, once on base, will try to wreak havoc, swiping as often as possible due to the amount of time it takes for Wakefield to get the ball to home plate.

If there is pressure on anyone in Game Four, it is on catcher Kevin Cash, who will need to, well, catch the knucklers from Wakefield. As simple a task as that seems, it is actually so difficult that Doug Mirabelli was able to extend his career by about four seasons due to his ability to handle Wakefield. Back to Timmy, though. The 16-year veteran does not nearly get the credit he deserves, and his 2008 proved to be one of his best seasons this decade.

He posted a 4.13 ERA, 4.84 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP in 181 innings this season. His K/BB was a tick under 2.0, thanks to a 5.82 K/9 and a 2.98 BB/9. The WHIP is his best since 2002, as is his .247 BABIP. Wakefield’s 71.9% strand rate is the best since 2005, and he produced a 1.60 WPA/LI, deeming him over a win and a half better than an average pitcher this season. Wakefield allowed very few baserunners and stranded a much higher percentage than in recent years. On top of all of this is the odd change in balls in play rates, as his GB/FB fell to a decade-low 0.73, while hsi FB% rose to a decade-high 48%. With about a league average 9.1% HR/FB, this resulted in a higher FIP and HR/9 due to the drastic rise in flyballs.

For his career, Wakefield has a 4.14 WPA/LI, making him just about four wins better than an average pitcher in this span, which makes sense. Wakefield has pretty much been an average pitcher, mixing points of dominance with some clunkers, but people often forget that average players possess plenty of value. He has a career 4.32 ERA and 4.72 FIP, along with a 1.35 WHIP and 71% strand rate. He will not make the Hall of Fame, but will definitely go down as one of the great knuckleballers of our time, and his ability to fill in as a starter or reliever for the Red Sox makes him extremely valuable to their team, year in and year out. Only time will tell how much longer he sticks around, but tonight will be a very important start for the two-time World Series winner.

In an effort to counteract the usage of lefthanded relievers in the White Sox bullpen, Terry Francona opted to bat second baseman Dustin Pedroia cleanup this weekend. As odd or funny as it sounds—even prompting Ozzie Guillen to mention it is the first time he ever IBB’d a “jockey”—Pedroia in the cleanup spot is not an absolutely ridiculous idea. Having played just about every game for the Red Sox, last year’s Rookie of the Year winner is hitting .326/.373/.488, good for an .861 OPS. For the record, masher Carlos Pena’s OPS is .865.

Pedroia’s BABIP of .337 is essentially no different than last year’s .334, however his Isolated Power has seen a big jump. Last year’s .125 has jumped to a .161, thanks in large part to his 15 longballs.

Since June 12, he has been especially hot. In the 67 games during that span, just about half of his season, he has hit .384/.426/.598, for a 1.022 OPS. Additionally, 11 of those 15 home runs have come in that span, and Ozzie Guillen was quoted as saying he would rather face David Ortiz at this point than Pedroia. On the year, Pedroia’s 2.63 WPA leads all second baseman, though his 1.56 WPA/LI ranks sixth. This provides valid explanation that he has been clutch this year, as his performance has risen in crucial situations.

He has that look of an Eckstein-gritmaster, but don’t let it fool you… this guy can hit. He doesn’t like hitting cleanup and will likely find his way back to the top of the order when Kevin Youkilis is at 100%, but the way Dustin’s hitting, he isn’t too far off the slugging reputation that accompanies the #4 spot in a lineup.

On a sidenote, Pedroia’s potential right-side-of-the-infield partner, Lars Anderson, was interviewed this weekend at Fire Brand of the American League. To read the interview, click here.

One of my biggest baseball pet peeves is when current pitching barometers (W-L and ERA) are, on their own, used to make extreme analytical claims. I have no problem if ERA is used as one of many metrics in an analysis, or if W-L is somehow adjusted to take several outside factors into account, but on their own, they do not really tell us much. With that in mind, let’s play a little game. Below are some numbers from 2007 and some from 2008, from the same pitcher:

Year    K/9     BB/9     K/BB      WHIP
2007    8.70    1.79     4.85      1.14
2008    8.74    1.81     4.83      1.23

They look pretty identical, right? Yes, the WHIP is slightly higher, but still a very good 1.23. Additionally, the strikeout and walk rates are not only fantastic, but essentially the same. This pitcher’s record last year was 20-7, and he posted a 3.27 ERA. This year, he is 11-9 with a 4.34 ERA. Using just those barometers, he is doing much worse this year. Couple it with the strikeout, walk, and baserunner numbers above, and you should see that the W-L and ERA may be a little fishy in their evaluation.

If you haven’t already guessed, I’m talking about Adam Eaton Josh Beckett of the Red Sox.

Now, there are other numbers we need to consider, since the barometers and more advanced numbers I posted do not show everything, but my overall point is that Beckett has not been nearly as bad as his W-L and ERA would make many Red Sox fans think. His numbers are worse this year, but not by much. Why are they worse?

Well, last year he surrendered 0.76 HR/9, had a .316 BABIP, and stranded 75.2% of the runners that reached base. This year, he has a 1.02 HR/9, a .330 BABIP, and a 69.4% strand rate. Put together, he has allowed more baserunners, has been worse at preventing them from scoring, and has allowed more balls to leave the park. Since his BB and K numbers are the same, the rise in HR/9 has resulted in an FIP increase from 3.08 to 3.32. So, yes, he has been worse this year than last, but a lot of it has to do with the higher BABIP. On top of that, a 3.32 FIP is rather great, and signals that his controllable skills are still darn good.

Interesting to note, his xFIP, which normalizes the home run component of FIP, says he is actually pitching better this year. Last year, his xFIP was 3.56, while it comes in at 3.35 this year. As his numbers stand right now, this would be the first year of Beckett’s career in which he surrendered more hits than innings pitched, largely due to the increase in BABIP. His velocity and movement look pretty similar this and last year as well, meaning some problems could stem from either poor location, or quite simply, bad luck.

His WPA and WPA/LI do not appear to be on pace to match last year’s numbers, but his controllable skills and performance have not been bad to the point that Sox fans should question if he has lost something. This could just be something similar to Jake Peavy’s 2006 season.

Yesterday I wrote about how C.C. Sabathia has not necessarily turned his season around recently but rather had worse numbers than his performance level would indicate; this was primarily due to two poor starts quite early in the season. As I went to post the article I caught a glimpse of the leaderboards on the main page here and spotted Josh Beckett amongst those with the fastest heaters. It soon dawned on me I had absolutely no idea what Beckett was doing this year; how he had performed; how the numbers looked; or even his finger-blister ratio.

Checking out his statistics I soon realized he is also suffering from Unjust Barometer Syndrome; not that a 4.22 ERA is terrible or a 6-4 W-L merits demotion but remove those barometers and Beckett is doing pretty much exactly the same thing as a year ago.

2007: 6.69 IP/G, 3.08 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, .316 BABIP, .250 BAA, 4.85 K/BB
2008: 6.58 IP/G, 3.33 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, .311 BABIP, .249 BAA, 5.53 K/BB

So, literally, if you strip away W-L and ERA, the similarities amongst these statistics should be similar enough to the point that any added commentary would come off as redundant.

His K/9 has gone from 8.70 to 9.46; his BB/9 has dropped from 1.79 to 1.71; and his HR/9 has risen from 0.76 to 1.25. Put together, this has led to the increase in FIP. His rates of balls in play have shifted in quite the odd fashion as well. His career LD/GB/FB is 18.8/44.2/37.0. Last year they came in at 15.8/47.3/36.9; this year they are currently 21.9/37.9/40.2. Beckett is getting significantly less grounders than a year ago, and many more line drives/flyballs. His HR/FB has, in turn, risen from 8.0% to 12.5%.

His LOB has dropped, too, from 75.2% to 70.1%. Since he is allowing essentially the same amount of baserunners (look at his WHIP, BAA, and BABIP posted above) it seems that his higher-than-it-should-be ERA is a direct result of the change in BIP rates, which give more of an opportunity for balls to leave the yard—which they have as evidenced by his HR/9 increase. All told, Beckett’s numbers should not worry Red Sox fans at all; they weren’t too bad even with the barometers but, when we dig deep it becomes clear he is just as good as last year.

Last week, Dave Cameron wrote about the Free Talent All-Stars; players who did not require much return either in personnel or salary to acquire, and how they were performing. Most of these players garnered the moniker “low risk/high reward” because teams are giving up very little for them; perhaps these players will experience a career renaissance and produce at a very high level. I also conducted a study of low risk pitchers in the last issue of SABR’s statistical newsletter, By the Numbers.

This offseason, two particular low risk pitchers seemed to stand out from the pack: Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Both had lousy 2007 seasons which, when coupled with their expensive contracts, made their performances look even worse. Both, however, had caveats to their struggles. Colon’s numbers were a bit deceiving and Garcia was pitching with a significant injury.

Colon signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox while Garcia is still awaiting his shot at auditioning for several interested teams.

Back in February, Josh Kalk pointed out how Colon’s 2007 statistics were more on the deceiving side, noting that his FIP was over 1.5 points lower than his ERA; he also had a ridiculously low LOB% compared to the rest of his career.

In just two starts for the Red Sox this season, Colon has gone 12 innings, surrendering 11 hits and three walks, while striking out 8 batters. He has won both games and has an FIP of 2.68. Though much too early to proclaim Colon has “found it” he has definitely looked much more in tune than the last couple of years. So what happened in 2006 and 2007?

Well, from 1998-2005 his LOB% was 70.8 or higher; in 2006 it was 66.1% and in 2007 it fell to 63.5%. In that same eight year span his BABIP topped out at .313; in 2006 it was .319 and in 2007 it rose to .364. In 2006 he also gave up 14.9% HR/FB, the highest percentage of his career.

Last year he actually reduced his BB/9 from 2.63 to 1.76 and still managed to post a 1.62 WHIP, meaning he got hit around. As evidenced by his decrease in line drives and vast increase in BABIP it seems Colon was very unlucky last year. Perhaps not unlucky to the point that, in a perfect world, he would have gone 13-3 with a 3.00 ERA but unlucky because his 6.34 ERA did not nearly tell enough of the story.

Colon may not be the dominant force he was at the beginning of his career but he doesn’t need to be to produce at the level at which this Red Sox team expects him to.