Archive for San Diego Padres

The Minnesota Twins exceeded expectations in 2015, winning 83 games and remaining in contention for a Wild Card berth until the final weekend of the season. Many see it as an anomaly and are wont to predict regression. Others are more bullish, despite the team’s question marks and lack of star power.

Terry Ryan raised an eyebrow when I inquired as to the quality of his club heading into the coming campaign.

“It’s not only knowing where you are, but who you are,” Ryan told me. “And I think I know who we are. I also know where we came from.”

The longtime GM made a salient point. Four games over .500 is meaningful progress when you’re a small-market team coming off of four consecutive 90-plus loss seasons. Not that he’s satisfied. Prior to their 2011-2014 doldrums, the Twins captured six AL Central titles in a 10-year stretch. To Ryan, what’s anomalous is losing.

“We can be happy with what we did last year, but we shouldn’t be overjoyed, by any stretch,” said Ryan. “We have a long way to go. I would hope that last year was just us moving in the right direction.” Read the rest of this entry »

Will Middlebrooks is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to explaining his unfulfilled potential in Boston. The 26-year-old third baseman is hesitant to blame injuries – no one wants to be seen as an excuse-maker — but there’s no denying his familiarity with the trainer’s table. Wrist, finger, leg, back – he’s been on the disabled list four times in three years, and on numerous occasions has played hurt.

Middlebrooks is a Padre now, having come to San Diego in exchange for Ryan Hanigan this past December. He’s also – at least for the moment – unencumbered by malady. I asked if injuries were the root cause of his uneven performances in a Red Sox uniform.

“No, of course not,” responded Middlebrooks. “That hasn’t been the only thing. There’s a big learning curve when you’re a young player. You’re learning pitching. There are guys adjusting to you and figuring out your weaknesses. It’s that cat-and-mouse game we always talk about.”

It’s hard for a cat to catch a mouse when he’s hobbled, and Middlebrooks has a plodding .695 OPS in 232 big-league games. He has the potential to do much more, particularly in the slugging department. Prior to his 2014 power outage – just two dingers — he had 32 home runs in 660 at bats. A mechanical adjustment may help him invigorate his long-ball stroke. Read the rest of this entry »

The teams who are engaged in the most prolific and dynamic offseasons — namely, the Chicago White Sox, Oakland A’s, San Diego Padres, and Tampa Bay Rays — still remain somewhere in the middle of FanGraphs’ projected 2015 standings. As Dave noted early last month at Just a Bit Outside, it appears that teams’ response to the new second wild-card spot is to push towards the middle and hope to catch lightning in their bottle, a la the 2014 Kansas City Royals.

The entire standings are getting compressed: as Dave notes in his article, there are only a small handful of teams who are going through a rebuilding cycle (whether aimless or not) and thus can be considered out of the running for the 2015 World Series. What I find most interesting about the current state of the league is that the standings are being compressed from the top as well. Or, as Dave wrote:

This is essentially baseball teams adopting the old adage of not putting all their eggs in one basket. And as more teams adopt this strategy, the less it makes sense for any one team to try and pull away from the pack. After all, if you have to beat 10 or 11 other decent teams for a playoff spot, your margin of error is going to be lower than if half the teams in the league are conceding defeat on opening day.

That explanation makes enough sense. But, also, this article was written back when the Padres’ most significant acquisition was Clint Barmes, and I think A.J. Preller’s subsequent transactions have helped define a new standard as to what is and isn’t possible within the span of an offseason.

Maybe you don’t like the Matt Kemp deal. I still don’t totally know what to make of it myself. That’s fine. We’ll leave it aside for now. Let’s look at it this way: Preller acquired Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Derek Norris in exchange for their starting catcher (Rene Rivera — from whom I have developed a mighty crush), their fourth starter (Jesse Hahn — or fifth starter, depending on your view of Odrisamer Despaigne), and a big bundle of the Padres’ middle class of prospects.

The Padres received value in these three trades by offering sheer quantity as their own value for offer: Preller shipped out 12 players (and two international bonus slots) while receiving 8. (Those numbers jump to 15 players out and 10 players in if you include the Kemp deal.) And, all the while, the Padres’ projected 2015 payroll ($88.9M) is actually a touch under their 2014 Opening Day payroll ($90.6M).

Preller has retained, by Kiley’s rankings, three of the organization’s top four prospects. He traded away the middle class — not the upper class — of his inherited farm system in exchange for significant Major League experience, all the while assuming no financial burdens. Okay, so the Padres don’t look, even now, like a playoff team next year. But it’s hard to find a downside to Preller’s approach — unless the middle class of any team’s farm system at any given time is actually incredibly, incredibly valuable to an organization’s long-term health.

Judging by the behavior of other Major League teams, especially those who are already projected to do well, that middle-class of prospects is just that valuable. Preller is not the only General Manager who was just hired from outside the organization in the last few months. Meaning, he was not the only GM who has just inherited a farm system that was put together by a GM who was ultimately fired. Dave Stewart of the Arizona Diamondbacks has mostly sat on his hands, trade-wise, actually giving up established major league value in Miguel Montero. In Atlanta, John Hart started the offseason from essentially the same position as Preller, but decided to move in the opposite direction, sending away players valuable in the present-tense (Jason Heyward, Upton) for future-tense potential.

Teams with contending-ready cores have also effectively sat on their hands this offseason in the trade market. The Seattle Mariners have only used their organizational depth to acquire Justin Ruggiano (in exchange for Matt Brazis). The Washington Nationals have only received minor leaguers (Joe Ross, presumably Trea Turner) in exchange for their minor leaguers (Steven Souza, Travis Ott). The Pittsburgh Pirates have traded for Antonio Bastardo and Francisco Cervelli.

These right here are the teams that would have taken significant steps closer to the World Series had they engineered the types of trades that Preller made this offseason. But these teams have decided, in effect, that their middle class of minor leaguers is more valuable than the likes of Myers, Norris, Upton.

And, shoot, maybe these already-contending teams are right. The available population of even replacement-level major leaguers is certainly finite, and maybe Preller’s offseason will ultimately make it very difficult for the Padres to fill out their whole roster from 2017-2021.

The thought I keep coming back to, though, is how much prices on the trade market inflate at the Trade Deadline. Any combination of the Mariners, Nationals, and Pirates will be positioned as buyers late next July. If they make a move then, unlike now, they are doing so because they know for sure that they are well-positioned for a postseason run. But if they make a move now, unlike then, the price tag is significantly lower. Like: what if Preller traded for Upton this winter purely in anticipation of flipping him at the Deadline? The package that Preller would receive for a half-season of Upton would no doubt exceed in perceived value the package that he gave up for a full season of Upton. (Not to mention it would be a pretty slick new way to rebuild a team.)

Basically, what I’m saying is: I really like the mindset behind the offseason that Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi, and company have put together for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Currently the Dodgers are projected by FanGraphs as the best team in baseball, a 91-win team over the Mariners’ 89. I very much admire their “double-trade” tactic to separate the wheat from the chaff of their roster. For instance: with Dee Gordon’s trade value no doubt at its highest, the Dodgers trade him, Dan Haren, and Miguel Rojas to the Miami Marlins for a package that includes Andrew Heaney. Heaney is then traded, straight-up, to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. While there are other players moving around in this trade, the effect is that Gordon is swapped for Kendrick at second base, a cunning way of improving major-league talent without significant effects to minor-league depth. The same double-trade maneuver was triggered by the Kemp deal: the Dodgers acquired Zach Eflin for Kemp, and then sent Eflin to Philadelphia (with Thomas Windle) for Jimmy Rollins. The Dodgers turned their outfield logjam into a veteran starting shortstop and netted Yasmani Grandal in the process.

Maybe, across the majors, teams are scared of pushing their chips to the middle because the 2014-15 Oakland A’s loom like a cautionary tale — an organization depleted after they pushed in their own chips. But there’s more than one way to interpret the last 12 months in Oakland, and one interpretation is: their error was not pushing all of their chips in, but rather waiting until July to do so.

Whether or not it earns the Dodgers the World Series, I commend them for proactively attempting to separate their team from the pack.

For the first time since perhaps lovable Tony Gwynn Sr. was swattin’ singles around the yard, the San Diego Padres have commanded the full attentions of the baseball world. The architect of these numerous wheelings and dealings, first-year General Manager A.J. Preller, would be hard for even dedicated fans to pick out of a crowd simply because he has been on the job for slightly over four months (and one of those months was the thrilling playoffs, when nobody was too concerned about the Padres).

Today, let’s get to know Preller a little bit via the stray scraps of video interviews that have been released since his hire. Personally, count me a fan of his simultaneously methodical and relaxed demeanor. More importantly, let’s comb through this unofficial archive in search for any clues that the Padres would dramatically reshape their team this offseason. Presented in chronological order:

Read the rest of this entry »

Trea Turner has his sights set high. The 2014 first-round pick wants to be more than the starting shortstop for the San Diego Padres [or, if last night’s reports are accurate, the Washington Nationals]. Turner wants to be a star.

He could have been a Pirate. Pittsburgh drafted Turner out of high school in 2011, and the now-21-year-old had no trouble picturing himself in black and gold. He told me the Pirates personnel he spoke to during the draft process were “awesome” and that he still keeps in touch with the area scout. Turner said he’d have “loved to be a Pirate,” but “needed to go to college and make myself better both mentally and physically.”

Turner enrolled at North Carolina State, and excelled. In three seasons with the Wolfpack he hit .342 and stole 110 bases. His junior year, he won the Brooks Wallace Award as the best shortstop in college baseball.

Along the way, he received plenty of attention from scouts. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2008, the Minnesota Twins drafted Aaron Hicks 14th overall. Four years later they took Byron Buxton second overall. The latter is 20 years old and the top prospect in the game. The former is 24 years old and… what exactly? A placeholder? A late-bloomer? An enigma?

The correct answer is probably “all of the above,” which leads to another question. Actually, it leads to a pair of related questions: Will Hicks play well enough to be the Twins everyday centerfielder in 2014? If he does — first he’ll have to win the job over Alex Presley — how much value will he provide with his glove?

Hicks’ offensive struggles last year are obvious to the stat sheet and naked eye alike. Assessing his defense is more complicated. With the Twins playing half their games at Target Field, it is also a concern. I asked Terry Ryan about outfield defense during the Winter Meetings

“It’s imperative,” said the Twins’ general manager. “Number one, we’re in a pitcher’s park. We want a lot of range in center field. One thing it might affect is how you go about your draft. We’re looking for people who can go get a ball in the outfield. I think [Hicks] did a pretty good job doing that when he was up last year.”

“Centerfield and right field [at Target Field] are big,” agreed Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire. “They’re huge. You need to have some athletic people out there to run the ball down, and Hicks was very good.”

Defensive metrics don’t agree that Hicks was good. I asked Scott Spratt of Baseball Info Solutions why that might be.

“One reason Aaron Hicks may appear to be a better defensive center fielder than his Defensive Runs Saved (plus-2, 20th-best at the position) total indicates is that his negative value is all range-related,” said Spratt. “We have him as costing the Twins five runs due to Plus/Minus. On the other hand, Hicks saved the Twins two runs with his arm and five runs with Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays, mostly due to his 13 unexpected fly ball or line drive outs and his two home run robberies. In other words, Hicks rarely made poor decisions or poor plays on the balls he could reach, which is the easier part of defensive play to visually evaluate.”

Positioning was likely a factor. According to multiple sources, Twins outfielders played deep more often than not. Lack of range in the corner positions makes that understandable, but one is left to wonder if their pitching staff would have a lower BABiP if the outfielders — particularly the speedy Hicks — played shallower.

According to Baseball Info Solutions, that may or may not be a good idea.

“Outfielders are rewarded more in DRS for deep outs and penalized more for deep non-outs because the run value on those plays is greater,” explained Spratt. “Balls that drop in front of outfielders tend to end up singles while balls over their heads tend to become doubles and triples. Differences in park dimensions can have an effect on players, but our research hasn’t uncovered any clear patterns. In a bigger parks, outfielders will sometimes position themselves deeper, which makes them more likely to convert deep balls into outs. However, that then makes shallow balls more likely to fall in as hits, and that tradeoff can balance out or skew either way depending on the positioning and skill set of a particular outfielder.”

In the case of the Twins, that particular centerfielder will be Hicks or Presley in the short term. Hicks has the higher upside, but again, we’re likely looking at a placeholder situation. Buxton is on the horizon, and according to MiLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, he’ll arrive well-positioned to help save runs.

“While most people want to talk about what Buxton can do offensively, what with his bat, power and speed profile, it would be a mistake to forget about his defense,” said Mayo. “It makes him as complete a prospect as there is in the minors today. His plus speed allows him to cover a tremendous amount of ground in center and he has as strong an arm as any outfield prospect in baseball. The whole complete package thing refers to his defense just as much as his offense.”

I haven’t had a chance to ask Buxton how deep or shallow he likes to play. I did, however, have an opportunity to ask Hicks.

“I like to play in,” said Hicks. “I like to go back on balls. It depends on who is hitting — you’re usually a little deeper for the core guys than the 7-8-9 guys — but typically I like to play shallower than most [outfielders]. That allows you take away jam hits.”

I asked Hicks how much control he has over where he’s positioned, and the young outfielder adroitly sidestepped the question. A source was more forthcoming: “Gardy hates doubles. He‘d much rather have a lot of singles fall in front of his outfielders.”

——

Mike Pelfrey knows who Xander Bogaerts is. That’s not surprising given the Red Sox shortstop is baseball’s top prospect not named Byron Buxton. The Twins righthander faced Bogaerts on Friday afternoon and induced a hard-hit 5-4-3 double play. Afterwards he was asked if he knew who was in the box.

“I did,“ said Pelfrey. “It was the first time I ever faced him, but I’ve heard very good things about him and obviously watched the World Series. I know he’s a good player. I threw a pitch inside that he turned on and was lucky Trevor Plouffe made a good play at third. I saw good hands on an inside pitch, which is something I’ll put in my head for the next time. He made a good adjustment in that at bat, which is impressive for a young player.

“With games like this, we don’t go over scouting reports, but we know the guys in our league, Even though you’re mostly working on things, you’re conscious of who is hitting. I knew who he was.”

——

Chris Capuano’s approach will be a little different than usual when he makes his Grapefruit League debut. Recently signed by the Red Sox, the southpaw has never pitched for an American League team.

“Normally it changes in your last start or two of spring training,” said Capuano. “That’s when you actually start to break down the hitters. Before that, first and foremost you make sure you’re executing pitches. For the most part, you’re looking at the hitter and trying to read the hitter, and pitching to righties and lefties the way you pitch to righties and lefties.”

That doesn’t mean Capuano eschews knowledge. Relying more on guile than pure stuff, the Duke University-educated 35-year-old utilizes every edge he can.

“If I have information that might help me get the hitter out, I’m going to use it,” said Capuano. “Maybe what I should say is the pre-game hours that go into preparing aren’t quite as intense during spring training as they are in the regular season. At this point, it’s mostly about executing pitches. I still need to learn the hitters, though. I’ve been looking at video every day and will probably do more preparation for my spring training starts than usual.”

——

No one does more preparation than scouting directors. The June amateur draft is crucial to a team’s success, which means nary a rock is left unturned before decisions are made. Mistakes still happen. If you need evidence that scouting is an inexact science, scan listings of recent first rounds. It’s safe to say two dozen teams would draft Mike Trout if they could have a do-over. Every scouting director has skeletons in his closet.

Prior to becoming Senior Vice President, Player Development and Amateur Scouting for the Chicago Cubs, Jason McLeod led the draft in Boston and San Diego. McLeod has more hits than misses — especially from his time with the Red Sox — but like his scouting brethren, he’s far from perfect. A player he never actually had a chance to take is ample proof.

“When I was in San Diego, Javier Baez went right in front of us,” McLeod told me recently. “He went ninth and we took Corey Spangenberg tenth. The Cubs beat a lot of teams on Javy. They certainly beat the Padres. I have to admit we weren’t set up to take him with our pick. Thankfully, the Cubs were smart and I don’t have to wear that one too bad.”

As Padres fans know all too well, Spangenberg has thus far fallen short of expectations. Count McLeod among the surprised.

“After we signed Corey he went up to Eugene and just went bananas,” said McLeod. “Pat Murphy was our manager there. He had been the head coach at Arizona State — he and Dustin Pedroia are like father and son — and Murph was like ‘This guy is Pedroia, just from the left side and with more speed.’ Looking at what Corey did in the Northwest League, we were friggin’ digging ourselves. Then he went to Fort Wayne and has kind of been grinding along the last few years.”

I asked McLeod what he missed in Baez.

“We had some questions on his aggressiveness,” said McLeod. “Everyone saw the bat speed and the power. He was a little flashy and had the big swing. What we probably underestimated a little bit was how much Javy loves to play the game, and how much he loves to compete. In the end, we simply missed on him. We wouldn’t have taken Javy had he fallen to our pick. Thankfully the Cubs did.”

——

Tommy Layne has had a fairly nondescript career. The 29-year-old reliever is 2-2, 2.84 over 40 big league appearances. Primarily a lefty specialist, he has worked just 25-and-a-third innings.

Two of those innings are noteworthy. Both came in 2012 with the San Diego Padres. The first was Layne’s big league debut, the second his first win. The southpaw remembers them well.

“My first game was against Atlanta [on August 14] and my first batter was Brian McCann,” said Layne. “I froze him with a slider. Dan Uggla took a slider as well. Tyler Pastornicky swung through a slider. All three strikeouts were on sliders thrown from my lower arm slot.

Against the Dodgers [on September 4], the first guy I faced was Adrian Gonzalez. I threw an over-the-top slider in the dirt that he swung through. Matt Kemp swung through a fastball. Then I froze Hanley Ramirez on a slider.”

Two games, six batters, six strikeouts. The Atlanta performance came in mop-up duty. The outing against the Dodgers came in the 10th inning of a 3-3 game.

I asked Layne — currently in camp with the Red Sox — if the games define his career.

“They really don‘t,” answered Layne. “If you think about it, you’re really only as good as the last time you threw the ball. That doesn’t mean my debut wasn’t awesome. It’s something I’ll carry with me until the day I die. My first win was the same kind of thing. They were good innings, but in no way, shape or form do they define me as a pitcher.”

What does define Layne is deception. Add creative game calling, and — at least on two special occasions — you have a recipe for success..

“The strikeouts had a lot to do with my catchers calling pitches that were outside the box of how I usually think of getting guys out,” explained Layne. “I throw from two different arm slots. Some pitches I throw from a lower arm slot and usually just to lefties. They had me throwing them to righties.

“Over the top, my repertoire is fastball, curveball, cutter and changeup. I also throw a fastball and a slider from about a foot lower than my normal arm slot. It’s kind of sidearm and kind of herky jerky. I’ve heard from hitters that it sort of comes out of nowhere. What I’m basically doing is shaping a pitch a little differently and creating some extra deception.”

Hindsight being 20/20, Cory Spangenberg was probably an overdraft. Two years ago, the San Diego Padres took the speedy second baseman 10th overall. George Springer and Jose Fernandez, among others, were still on the board.

That doesn’t mean Spangenberg won’t be a productive big-leaguer. The 22-year-old has great wheels, and his left-handed stroke shows plenty of promise. Playing at high-A Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio, he hit .292/.346/.407, with nine triples and 36 stolen bases. His glove has been a question mark, but he made great strides this year working with former defensive whiz Rich Dauer.

Spangenberg further fine-tuned his game in the Arizona Fall League, with the Peoria Javelinas. The Clarks Summit, Pennsylvania product discussed his development in the final week of the AFL season. Read the rest of this entry »

Hunter Renfroe finished his amateur career with a bang. The 21-year-old outfielder was one of the top players in the college ranks, hitting a robust .345, with 16 home runs, at Mississippi State. The San Diego Padres were impressed. They took him with the 13th overall pick in the June draft.

Renfroe’s tool kit includes more than a lethal bat from the right side. He also has plus wheels and a gun in the outfield. Originally drafted out of high school by the Red Sox, he had pro potential at multiple positions, including pitcher and catcher.

Renfroe had a solid first professional season. In 43 games between Eugene and Fort Wayne he hit .271, with 20 of his 46 hits going for extra bases. Read the rest of this entry »

Eric Stults didn’t represent the San Diego Padres in last night’s All-Star Game. He arguably deserved the honor, which is remarkable given where he’s come from. The 33-year-old left-hander was claimed off waivers last May after being released by the White Sox. Three years ago he was pitching for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp.

Stults had 8 career wins when he joined the Padres. Last year he doubled that total while logging a 2.40 ERA. So far this season, in 20 starts, he is 8-7 with a 3.40 ERA and 3.32 FIP. His 1.91 BB/9 is seventh-best among National League starters. He’s been the Padres best pitcher, and, surprisingly, one of the better lefties in the league.

More than a decade after being drafted by the Dodgers out of Bethel College, Stults has evolved into a poor man’s Randy Jones. In the mid-1970s, Jones won a Cy Young award and had a pair of 20-win seasons for the Padres. The southpaw did so with a fastball that could barely break a pane of glass. Stults is also similar to his skipper. Bud Black epitomized the term “crafty lefty” throughout the 1980s and into the 1990s.

Stults talked about his evolution as a pitcher, including his ability to change speeds with the best of them, when the Padres visited Fenway Park earlier this month. Read the rest of this entry »

Jedd Gyorko is ready to take over as San Diego’s regular second baseman. He’s also prepared to fill in at third base, the position he’s played since being taken in the second round of the 2010 draft. With Chase Headley now on the disabled list, Gyorko (pronounced JER-ko) could play one of the positions on opening day.

Gyorko can swing the bat: The 24-year-old right-handed hitter went .311/.373/.547 with 30 home runs last year between Double-A San Antonio and Triple-A Tucson. One of the top prospects in a loaded Padres system, he will contend for National League Rookie of the Year honors if he plays to his capabilities.

Gyorko addressed his development — on both sides of the ball — prior to Wednesday‘s game at the Peoria Sports Complex. Also weighing in were manager Bud Black and hitting coach Phil Plantier.

——

THE DEFENSE:

David Laurila: When were you first approached about playing second base?

Jedd Gyorko: Josh Byrnes called me as I was heading into the offseason. He said he wanted me to start getting some balls at second base and that it would probably be the position I’d be playing when I came to spring training. It was good to know that early so I could get in a full offseason of second base. I actually played there one year in college, so it’s not completely foreign to me.

DL: Did you have any issues with the move?

JG: I don’t think it would have mattered what I said, really. Read the rest of this entry »