Archive for Scott Rolen

In one way, Mike Schmidt is the prototypical third baseman: he was a great hitter and provided excellent defense. In another way, though, he isn’t: a prototype is a model on which subsequent reproductions are based. But no other third basemen has ever reproduced Schmidt’s accomplishments. He’s the best third baseman ever.

There’s a view that’s prevailed for some time to the effect that third basemen are just like first basemen except slightly more mobile. This was never really the case, though — and, on offense, third basemen now have a lot more in common with second basemen than their counterparts on the other corner of the diamond. This view likely cost Ron Santo the chances to enter the Hall of Fame by way of the writers’ ballot and, ultimately, prevented him from living to see his own induction.

A very similar player, Scott Rolen, will appear on the ballot for the first time in 2017. Based on the value he provided both on offense and on defense, Rolen deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.

Here are some mostly mainstream stats, with a few other metrics worked in, comparing Santo and Rolen:

That’s pretty darn close across the board. Rolen’s capacity for doubles resulted in a much higher slugging percentage. Because he played in an era defined by greater run-scoring, though, he sits slightly behind Santo in wRC+. Rolen closes the gap with superior defensive numbers, however — only Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt have more Gold Gloves than Rolen at third base, if you’re into that sort of thing — to end up with nearly identical WAR numbers.

Individual comparisons often make for a poor method for evaluating a potential Hall of Famer’s case. Going to the lowest common denominator will inevitably end up lowering standards for the Hall of Fame. (Consider what would happen if comparing every outfielder to Jim Rice, every first baseman to Orlando Cepeda, every second baseman to Red Schoendienst, etc.) That said, comparing a candidate to a clearly deserving member of the Hall can provide solid insight.

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Man-crushes can die hard. Reds’ GM Walt Jocketty has swapped Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke and Zachary Stewart for Scott Rolen. This is the second time Jocketty has traded for Rolen, but now under very different circumstances.

The Reds playoff hopes are nil, and this isn’t the same Scott Rolen of old. Granted, he’s hitting much closer to the Rolen of old with a .320/.370/.476 line, but that’s largely inflated by his .347 BABIP. Even with some falling off, Rolen still is an above average hitter at his position. His defense is no longer Brooks Robinson-esque, but he’s still slick with the leather – his UZR/150 last season was 8.5, this season 8.

Rolen is due around $20 million, including the rest of this year and the next, and reportedly Toronto is going to foot a portion of the bill. For the Reds’ sake let’s hope it is a good piece of the contract. Rolen is a moderately safe bet to be worth 2.5-3 WAR next year, and has upside to be worth 3.5-4 if he can stay healthy. That’s a big if. In the process, the Reds give up cheap players.

Edwin Encarnacion is due to make $4.75 million next year. With the stick, he’s fine, with the leather, he’s terrible – he’s been a career -12 UZR per 150 and is -23 per 150 this season. He’s probably a 1.5 win player next year, making his contract pretty fair.

Josh Roenicke looks like a decent middle reliever who will be glad to get off the Louisville-Cincinnati shuttle. His fastball has some giddyup and he throws a solid cutter as well.

Zachary Stewart is the “get” of the trade. He has a 92-95 MPH fastball with good sink and a hard cutting 82-85 MPH slider. He’s quickly climbed the ladder, pitching at High-A, Double-A and now Triple-A this season, and has a cumulative 2.92 FIP in 92 innings pitched. He pitched mostly out of the bullpen last year but is showing some good promise as a starter. He’s a solid B grade pitcher.

Rolen doesn’t make the Reds a contender next year, and he certainly doesn’t make them one this year. He’s a good player, but I just can’t understand this from Cincy’s perspective. Toronto must be be ponying up a lot of cash. Even if they are, I still can’t quite wrap my head around this.

I have to admit that I have not been a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ moves in recent years, but things are beginning to change. The Manny Ramirez deal, which the Pirates were involved in as the third team in, netted the organization some interesting players, as did the Xavier Nady trade with the New York Yankees.

After dealing with two powerhouse AL East teams, the Pirates made a smaller deal with another team in the division, the Toronto Blue Jays. The Pirates sent underachieving Jose Bautista, a former Rule 5 player who was playing at Triple-A and is eligible for arbitration after the season, to the Jays for a player to be named later. Bautista will help fill in for the perennially-injured Scott Rolen at third base.

The player-to-be-named-later was named yesterday, and it was Triple-A catcher Robinzon Diaz. I don’t like the trade from the Jays’ perspective because general manager J.P. Ricciardi – once again – sold low on a player. Diaz is a bad-ball hitter who has excellent hand-eye coordination and is a .300-plus career hitter (.306 in seven seasons), albeit with no power. He had been struggling at Triple-A, but had also missed a good portion of the season due to a severe ankle sprain.

Diaz was made expendable for Toronto because of the emergence of catcher Brian Jeroloman (Triple-A), and J.P. Arencibia (Double-A), both of whom were drafted and acquired under the Ricciardi tenure, while Diaz was not (Ricciardi seems to have a large bias for his own players).

The soon-to-be 25 year old catcher is very athletic and can play just about any where but shortstop and center field. He has an average arm for a catcher and pretty good catching skills, but his game calling has been criticized by Jays’ minor league pitchers. He should make a great third-string catcher and back-up at third base and second base.

Diaz will not be a superstar but he will be a solid addition to a National League club in rebuilding mode. With both of Toronto’s catching facing free agency this winter, he is also someone that organization could have used more than an arbitration-eligible utility player who cannot hit above .250.

In order to quell the somewhat heated Tony La Russa and Scott Rolen situation in St. Louis, the Cardinals shipped the disgruntled third baseman to the Blue Jays in exchange for Troy Glaus. The move catalyzed a frenzy of “this should benefit both teams” reactions, primarily due to both players experiencing recent downward trends in success. Rolen has been very injury prone in recent years while some speculate Glaus’s struggles are a direct result of no longer “allegedly” taking steroids. Approximately one-fourth of the way through the season, how is this exchange looking?

Glaus Facts
.230/.357/.357 Slash Line
1 HR, 21 RBI
16.6 BB%, 22.2 K%
.289 BABIP, .284 Career BABIP
18.0/36.0/46.0 LD/GB/FB, 19.2/35.6/45.2 Career LD/GB/FB
-3.21 BRAA, -0.32 REW
-0.50 WPA, 5.12 Games Advanced

Glaus’s SLG has struggled in the early going primarily due to hitting just one home run. His BABIP and BIP rates are all very similar to his career rates. Despite this, he clearly is not producing at his standard level. His struggles have cost the Cardinals about 1/3 of a game via Run Expectancy and 1/2 of a game via Win Probability. Games Advanced can be found by +WPA minus -WPA, and shows how many games a players efforts have effected; whether positive or negative, Glaus has had an effect on five of the Cardinals games.

His swing data shows an increase above his career rates in swings both inside and outside of the strike zone. His contact rate in the zone is four percent higher than his career averages while his contact rate outside of the zone is about five percent less. Overall, though, he is making more contact in the early going… he just must not be doing much with that contact.

Rolen Facts
In just 65 PA through 16 GP
.316/.385/.561 Slash Line
9.5 BB%, 12.3 K%
.333 BABIP, .314 Career BABIP
27.5/29.4/43.1 LD/GB/FB, 21.8/33.7/44.6 Career LD/GB/FB
1.45 BRAA, 0.14 REW
0.17 WPA, 2.81 Games Advanced

The first area that jumps out is his high line drive rate. Rolen may end up in future conversations about very high LD% but it is more likely he will regress closer to the 21-23% range. He seems to be swinging less at pitches in the zone while making more contact with those pitches, relative to his career totals. He has also maintained his career swing rate at pitches out of the zone while increasing his contact by seven percent.

Overall
It’s too early to discuss anything significant with regards to Rolen’s numbers but Glaus simply has not done too well in the first quarter of the season. Rolen, as Dave mentioned earlier tonight, has been one of just two players with positive BRAAs on the anemic Blue Jays offense, and he has only played in 16 games. If the season were to end today, for whatever reason, this trade would appear to be in the Blue Jays favor. In another month, who knows?

If Rolen continues to get hurt, and Glaus doesn’t improve, this won’t be a trade that benefits both teams but rather one that provides equal and mediocre production to the Cardinals and Blue Jays.