Archive for World Series

In many ways, the Chicago and Cleveland clubs about to begin this year’s World Series are similar teams. We know about the lengthy championship droughts each share, as well as their general, respective histories of futility. More specific to this season, one finds that both teams traded for relief aces from the New York Yankees, both won their divisions handily, and both advanced to the Series in relatively easy fashion. Each of the clubs is located in the middle part of the country, and each of them have relied on a collection of young, homegrown players.

So there’s a lot in common between the two teams. But there’s also one major advantage which Chicago possesses over their counterparts in Cleveland: money. While both teams feature younger players who’ve assumed major roles, the Cubs have gone out and made major fortifications through free agency while Cleveland has had to complement the core of their roster through the free-agent bargain bin.

Both teams have some dead money on their payrolls. Michael Bourn, Chris Johnson, and Nick Swisher remain on the books for Cleveland; Edwin Jackson still received money from Chicago. For Cleveland, though, those expenditures amount to roughly one-fifth of payroll compared to under 10% for the Cubs. Regarding the active World Series rosters, the Cubs are paying $147 million in salaries this year, an average of nearly $6 million per player. Cleveland, meanwhile, has invested only about $59 million in 2016 salaries, an average of $2.4 million per player. Only three Cleveland players — Jason Kipnis, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Santana — earn more than the average Cub, and Santana’s $8.45 million salary, Cleveland’s highest, would rank seventh among Chicago players. The graph below depicts the salaries for the active rosters of the two teams, with salary data from Cot’s Contracts.

Where a player was making above the major-league minimum and traded midseason, only the portion of the salary that was actually paid by the team was included. This applied to Aroldis Chapman, Coco Crisp, and Andrew Miller. Both teams feature a lot of homegrown talent, but when the Cubs needed to make a push for contention, they were able to sign Jason Heyward, John Lackey, Jon Lester, and Ben Zobrist to big contracts. Cleveland, partially hamstrung due to Zobrist-size deals for Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, signed Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis to fortify the roster.

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There were two big storylines leading up to the World Series: the unrivaled ability of the Kansas City Royals to make contact on offense, and the ability of the Mets’ young power arms. The main battle of the Fall Classic, it seemed, would be between those two opposing forces, and whichever won out over the other very well might meaningfully shift the series. Now, looking back on the five games of the Royals’ 2015 Championship, something is apparent in the outcome of that much-storied battle: Mets pitchers struggled mightily to put Royals hitters away when they had two-strike counts.

We know the 2015 Royals didn’t strike out a lot: they had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors during the regular season by a wide margin (15.9%; the next-closest team was the Oakland A’s, at 18.1%). Knowing that fact, we could look at their trend of two-strike success in the World Series as a continuation of that regular-season ability. And, while we should give the Royals a lot of credit for the quality of their at-bats (we’ll see later how their ability to foul balls off contributed to what we’re discussing), Mets pitchers also showed a detrimental tendency when the count was in their favor: they threw too many pitches in the strike zone.

First, lets understand the specifics of this Royals’ plate approach. Not only did they make contact more than almost any other team in the major leagues – their 81.8% contact rate was second only to the A’s at 81.9% — but they swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than any other team. That’s the main reason they saw the lowest rate of pitches in the zone during 2015. The thought process is simple: if a team shows that it will chase pitches, why bother throwing them strikes?

Take a look at a quick summary of their major league ranks for overall contact, swings at pitches outside of the strike zone (O-Swing%), and pitches in the strike zone (Zone%) for 2015:

This is who the 2015 Royals were: the free-swinging, contact-oriented team we’ve read about for the past month. Imagining yourself as an opposing pitcher, it might make sense to approach them with some of those traits in mind: perhaps you would throw more pitches out of the zone, get them to chase as much as possible, and hope that the majority of contact they generated would be weak because of the lack of quality pitches to hit.

However, Mets pitchers had a difficult time executing that game plan effectively during the World Series. Let’s take a look at a few heat maps from Baseball Savant to get an idea of some of the issues they faced putting Royals hitters away. We’re just going to focus on counts in which the pitcher was ahead with two strikes: 0-2 and 1-2 counts. First, here’s where Mets pitchers attacked their opponents during the NLDS & NLCS vs. the World Series in 0-2/1-2 counts:

There are obviously a different number of pitches between the two images, but we can see that the NLDS and NLCS image has far more pitches out of the zone, especially low and away to right-handed hitters. This makes sense: in 0-2 and 1-2 counts, a pitcher wants to throw pitches out of the zone. They want to get hitters to chase, and they can waste pitches trying to do that because the count is in their favor. The World Series image, however, has a lot of red (meaning a higher frequency of pitches in that location) on pitches up and over the heart of the plate. This, theoretically, is not want you want to be doing in 0-2 and 1-2 counts.

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There are a few phrases in baseball that come up from time to time which have no real evidence behind them, but generally inject a little enjoyment to the game as a bit of harmless trivia. One of my favorites is “As so often happens,” employed to describe that sequence when a player makes a great defensive play to close out one half-inning only to begin the next half-inning as the leadoff batter. One hears another such phrase when a defensive player has been going through struggles, perhaps has a bad reputation as a fielder, or might be nursing an injury. On those occasions when the relevant fielder is involved in a play, announcers are quick to note that “The ball will find you.” Last night, the ball found Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes, though turning 30 years old earlier this month, is in just his fourth year of professional baseball in the United States after defecting from Cuba. The Oakland Athletics signed Cespedes to a four-year, $36 million contract and installed him as the team’s center fielder. That particular experiment didn’t last. The A’s, perhaps trying to ease Cespedes’ transition to the majors, moved Coco Crisp from center field to left field so Cespedes could play his preferred center field. By the end of the season, the two outfielders had switched places; Cespedes, in the end, had started just 46 games in center. Until his trade to the Mets, Cespedes had recorded just 19 more starts in center field over two-and-a-half seasons. With Curtis Granderson in right, Michael Conforto in left and no designated hitter, Cespedes took over in center field as his hot bat helped the Mets to a division title.

Whether Cespedes is a more ideal fit for center field or left field is not set in stone, but the evidence we do have suggests left field is better suited to his skills. Cespedes struggled in the field in his initial transition to the majors, in both center and left field, but he adjusted to left field and quickly became one of the better left fielders in Major League Baseball.

Best Left Fielders 2013-2015

	Pos	Inn	ARM	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
Yoenis Cespedes	LF	2914.1	21.4	17.3	-1.7	36.9	17.6
Alex Gordon	LF	3601.2	19.1	17.5	3.8	40.4	14.2
Starling Marte	LF	3168.1	3.8	19.0	-3.2	19.6	12.0
Christian Yelich	LF	2474	-3.9	11.6	2.9	10.6	5.2
Brett Gardner	LF	2010	-2.6	2.6	1.4	1.3	1.5

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Television ratings can serve as a useful representation of interest in Major League Baseball, and in the playoffs, more attention is paid to the sport and more attention is paid to television ratings. Over the years, a decline in ratings has been used as an example of declining interest int he game of baseball. For the most part, the “Baseball is dying” motif is more of a silly meme than actual argument. Baseball games again dominated the last six months of programming on local television. On the whole, MLB drew more than 73 million fans, an increase compared to last season. Over a stretch of six months, there was a daily average of more 400,000 fans attending MLB games.

The first few rounds of the playoffs were a success on television, as well. The National League had the benefit of two great matchups in the division series, which featured the Los Angeles Dodgers against the New York Mets and the Chicago Cubs versus the rival St. Louis Cardinals. Three out of the four division series games went the full five games. The National League Championship Series set itself up for incredible ratings, with the Mets bringing the New York Market and the Cubs bringing not only the Chicago market but also a 100-year championship drought. The television schedule set up well for the series, putting all of the weekday games in a prime time slot on TBS, relegating the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals to the daytime on FS1.

The ratings were good for the Cubs and Mets, but the four-game sweep robbed the executives at TBS of the higher ratings a longer and more competitive series would have brought. The Blue Jays-Royals series on FS1 did not produce great ratings, but given certain factors — an afternoon time slot, a fledgling cable cable channel, and a Canadian team — the result was an expected one. Despite the perhaps slightly disappointing factors present in the LCSes, ratings are up overall against last season by close to 20%, with an average of 4.6 million viewers over the first two rounds, which figure doesn’t even account for the millions of viewers in Canada tuning in to watch the Blue Jays.

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Game 7, of course, is always living in the realm of “if necessary,” so for all we know any and all analysis on the topic could be moot by tomorrow. However, let’s humor ourselves for a bit. With Cole Hamels having pitched Game 3 on Saturday, he would be on four days’ rest on Thursday for Game 7. With the Phillies now having committed to Pedro Martinez for Game 6, that leaves Charlie Manuel with the choice between J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels.

The real answer here is both. There is absolutely no reason, in a Game 7 situation with essentially every pitcher available besides the Game 6 starter, that a starting pitcher should be allowed to face the lineup more than one time. This is the reason that the league average FIP for starters (roughly 4.45) is so much higher than that for relievers (roughly 4.20). This difference is even more exaggerated when we consider short relievers and remove mop-up types from consideration. This is because the short reliever does not need to pace himself, and doesn’t have to face a lineup the second time, and especially not a third time, where the starter suffers even more.

Apart from Hamels (3.72 FIP as a starter) and Happ (4.46 FIP as a starter), the Phillies could also call on Joe Blanton (4.45 FIP as a starter) off three days rest to pitch an inning or two. They also have Chan Ho Park (2.10 reliever FIP), Ryan Madson (3.23), and Brad Lidge (5.45 FIP, but 3.19 career).

Between these six pitchers, the Phillies could easily get nine quality innings. The difference between starting and relieving comes out to nearly a run, but just for the sake of argument, let’s use a more conservative estimate of .75. Then we see Hamels at roughly 3.00 FIP, and Happ and Blanton sitting at roughly 3.75. Park is probably not a 2.10 FIP true talent, and probably is closer to his 3.90 average from the last two years. Madson has been at 3.20 the last two years, but was at 4.20 as recently as 2007. He fits closer to 3.50 FIP for our estimate. Lidge, on the other hand, has a 2.19 FIP season in 2008 and a 3.88 FIP season in 2007. Giving weight to recent performance, a good estimate for Lidge would be 3.95.

In that case, consider this pitching plan. Hamels starts, pitches three innings. Happ relieves for two innings, and then hands off to Blanton, Park, Lidge, and Madson in some order to finish the game. At no point do the Phillies have to rely on a player with a reliever FIP above 4.00. Leaving Hamels or Happ in past the first part of the lineup would certainly result in a worse pitcher on the mound in the 3rd or 4th inning.

Regardless of how they do it, the Philadelphia Phillies will need any competitive advantage they can get if they reach a Game 7, where they will be facing one of the league’s top pitchers in C.C. Sabathia, and will also have to deal with Mariano Rivera at some point in the game. Runs will likely be at a premium, and this is the Phillies best bet at suppressing the Yankees offense in Game 7.

I can’t believe it.

As a baseball analyst on several highly trafficked websites, it is important to stay objective when covering the whole league. I know there have been several times when I have broken from this mold to show love for my Philadelphia Phillies, and I have to say this is probably the best sports moment of my life. I always wondered what it would be like to have a team you devote so much of yourself to, to come away with a championship, and to be honest, my eyes were teary for several minutes following that 0-2 slider to Eric Hinske.

First, I don’t care about the viewing audience of this World Series, as several writers have discussed. This was a very fun series of baseball to watch, as was this entire post-season. This game five was quite unconventional, but it made for one entertaining three and a half innings of baseball. Ryan Madson did not want to know whether or not he would be “starting,” instead hoping that he would get his call via the bullpen phone in order to keep his normal routine in order. Geoff Jenkins experienced an extremely reduced role following an injury and had not seen consistent playing time in several months. He comes up and smacks a 3-2 double to right-centerfield to kick things off.

Jimmy Rollins bunts him over and Jayson Werth singles him in on a popup that narrowly missed Akinori Iwamura’s glove. Then, somehow Rocco Baldelli muscled that Madson fastball over the left-field wall, a point at which my hope began to diminish. JC Romero then managed to induce a BJ Upton double play and a Carlos Pena flyout before Pat Burrell, hitless in 13 World Series at bats, barely misses a home run, instead settling for a double. After that, Pedro Feliz, of all people, knocks in what amounted to be the game-winning run.

Even when Brad Lidge came in, my breath still had to be held. He may have been “perfect” in save opportunities, but as those who follow the team know, his saves never tend to be easy or stress free. When Evan Longoria popped out, my confidence increased exponentially, but the Fernando Perez stolen base helped cancel some of that out. With a runner on second, and one out, I swore Ben Zobrist’s line drive was going to fall in, as my heart nearly stopped. Two outs. In steps Eric Hinske, who absolutely demolished a home run in his previous World Series at bat.

As he swung over the 0-2 slider, I did not know how to react. I knew I was happy, but the emotions inside me did not manifest themselves in the form of jumping up and down or streaking up and down my elderly neighborhood. I smiled. I laughed. My eyes became teary for a bit. I finally got to see the team I pull for the most win a championship. Pat Burrell likely won’t be back, and who knows what will happen with Jamie Moyer, or whether some of the players currently on the roster will return or not, but regardless, this team has firmly entrenched itself as one of the best the city has seen, and it is a great feeling.

Congratulations to both the Rays and Phillies for reaching this juncture, and I can only hope these two meet again in October sometime soon.

This season has been quite the rollercoaster for me, considering I never thought in a thousand years that I would bare witness to the team I root for taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series. Clearly, the dominance of Cole Hamels, tonight’s game five starter, has loomed large in the team reaching this juncture, but the work of their relief corps has been outstanding, and is another reason why they find themselves in a series-clinching game tonight. The bullpen of the Phillies was extremely solid all season long, posting one of the lowest ERAs in baseball while simultaneously producing one of the best FIPs. And, as mentioned last week, they threw the lowest percentage of fastballs of any bullpen in baseball, relying almost equally on offspeed pitches.

Against the Brewers, in the NLDS, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, Chad Durbrin, JC Romero, Scott Eyre, and Clay Condrey allowed four earned runs in 10 innings of work. The sextet walked just three batters while striking out nine. The 3.60 ERA and 3.00 K/BB were both impressive, but they did allow 13 hits, as Durbin and Eyre combined to give up 6 hits in 1.2 innings. The big three of Lidge, Madson, and Romero, however, combined for: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.

The Phillies won the series three games to one and moved onto play the Dodgers. JA Happ joined the previously mentioned six relievers in dominating the opposition, as the bullpen allowed just two earned runs in 18.2 innings of work. All told, their numbers were: 18.2 IP, 13 H, 2 ER, 12 BB, 17 K. The walks and strikeouts could be much better, but next to nobody scored in their appearances, as they produced an ERA below 1.00. The big three scattered six hits over 11.2 innings, walking six and striking out 13, all while stranding every baserunner that reached. Through the first two series tiers, the Phillies bullpen had posted the following numbers: 28.2 IP, 26 H, 6 ER, 15 BB, 26 K.

They then moved onto the World Series, to take on the Rays, who themselves had an extremely solid bullpen in the regular season. They had not been as stellar in the DS and CS, but had balance and depth that most other teams lacked. While they have faltered to some degree through four World Series games, the Phillies relievers have continued to flourish. Happ and Condrey have not seen action, but Lidge, Madson, Romero, Eyre, and Durbin have combined for 8.2 innings in which only one earned run has scored. Only two Rays batters have recorded hits off of this quintet, who suddenly stopped walking hitters. All told, they have walked one batter while striking out 12.

In the Division Series, the Phillies had decent K/BB numbers, but their ERA was higher than they would have liked. In the Championship Series, they drastically reduced the ERA, but their K/BB numbers got much worse. In the World Series, so far, they have put everything together, coupling a Bob Gibson-esque ERA with a Pedro Martinez circa 1999-2000 K/BB ratio. Having confidence in a bullpen can reduce the stress on a manager to make the decision of whether or not to keep a starter in the game, and the Phillies bullpen has done everything possible to earn this confidence. Will they all be this good next season? Who knows, but what is certainly clear is that if they can sustain their performances for at least one more game, they could end their season on the highest of high notes.

The World Series starts tomorrow, and for the first time in, well, forever, I actually care about the outcome. Sure, the Phillies participated in the series back in 1993, but it is very hard to understand the severity of such a situation as an 8-yr old. Heck, back then I even thought that batting average was a sufficient evaluative barometer. Though this series will feature Joe Buck and Tim McCarver in the broadcasting booth, my eyes will still be glued to the screen each night, hoping that the team I devote so much of my energy to can reward me in the biggest way possible. The Phillies will have to be sharp, sharper than they have been thus far, in order to walk away victorious, but there are a few key specifics they need to hone in on in order to be successful.

First, even though this may be a cry on deaf ears, Charlie Manuel really needs to separate Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The specific batting order does not matter that much, but having them back to back is literally just asking for Trever Miller, JP Howell, or perhaps even David Price to enter into a high leverage situation with the goal of neutralizing the heart of the Phillies order. Especially given Howard’s recent struggles, why not go with Utley-Burrell-Howard? At the very least it splits the order up, meaning that the first six could be Rollins (S), Werth (R), Utley (L), Burrell (R), Howard (L), Victorino (S), or the same incarnation with Werth and Victorino reversed.

Next, for the games played in Tampa, they will need to pick their defensive poison between Ryan Howard at 1B or Pat Burrell in LF. Considering Burrell is replaced each night with a better defender, it is more than likely that he will serve as the designated hitter come tomorrow. This means that either Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, or Geoff Jenkins can join the outfield. Dobbs is not a natural outfielder, but he has seen time there for the Phillies over the past two seasons, and is the most consistently productive of the three. Getting him in the game could prove to be very important.

Another key aspect will be to have a short leash on Jamie Moyer. Jamie has a remarkable season, regardless of how old he is, but his two playoff starts have been abysmal. He may have been unlucky, and just an inch lower from striking out Blake DeWitt, ending the first inning of Game 3 against the Dodgers down 2-0 as opposed to 5-0, but if Moyer is not getting calls from the umpire, or his location is poor, he is not going to be effective. JA Happ has proven himself capable enough, and while he should not begin the game already warming up in the bullpen, if Moyer starts struggling, Manuel needs to make a move quickly.

Lastly, for now, Charlie Manuel needs to avoid going crazy with micro-managing the bullpen. The Phillies relief corps has been the best in the bigs this season, but Manuel has a tendency to do what he thinks is the correct way to go about doing things as opposed to, say, the right thing. If Cole Hamels is cruising through six innings and is at, or below, 90 pitches, there is no reason to bring in Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, or JC Romero. Likewise, yes, Brad Lidge has not yet blown a save this season, but if any of these starters is cruising through eight innings, and can come back out for the ninth, do not waste him or make him throw more pitches than is necessary.

Finally, while this is not necessarily something the Phillies organization can control, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins need to step up, big-time. Rollins did not have tremendous statistics in either series, but he did record timely hits, which more than helped the Phillies reach the World Series. Howard really only has one meaningful hit the post-season, racking up statistics in relatively meaningless situations. If he does not start producing, given that Manuel is not going to separate he and Utley, it gives Chase no much less protection and virtually creates a black hole. He was able to knock the ball out of the park all year long, and he needs to continue to do so now, when it matters most.

This series might not get the ratings, but it is a very solid matchup of two of the best teams in baseball this year, and has the makings of providing some very entertaining games to watch.