Archive for Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke is one of the best pitchers in major league baseball, and as a result, he had no shortage of suitors before ultimately signing a contract in excess of $200 million. In addition to money, the Diamondbacks also surrendered their first-round pick next year, the 13th overall selection. While it would not be quite true to say that Greinke cost “only money,” the Diamondbacks did not give up a single active player in order to acquire Greinke.

Cole Hamels, both the same age as Greinke and roughly as effective over the course of his career, was traded over the summer. Hamels’ cost was not “only money,” as the Texas Rangers gave up six players, including three high-end prospects (and Matt Harrison’s contract), for Jake Diekman and the opportunity to pay Cole Hamels around $100 million over the next four years. While the costs come in different forms, we can compare the two to see how the trade market this past summer compared to this offseason’s free agent market for Greinke.

The Los Angeles Dodgers prioritized Cole Hamels at the trade deadline, but subsequently missed out by refusing to part with their best prospects. The team then prioritized bringing Greinke back, only to be outbid by division rival Arizona. The cost for both players was high, and it is difficult to say whether the Dodgers made a mistake passing on both players, but we should be able to compare the costs for both to see if the Dodgers could have kept a comparable pitcher for less than the amount Greinke received in free agency.

As far as comparisons go, Greinke did have a better year in 2015, but their cumulative WAR graphs (shown below) reveal two remarkably similar careers in terms of value.

In addition, both players are projected to do well next season. By Steamer, Greinke is set for a 4.2 WAR while Hamels comes in a bit behind at 3.6 WAR for the 2016 season. Using those projections as the baseline for future production, we can get an estimate for their value over the next few years. With deferrals, Greinke’s deal turns out to be $194.5 million over six seasons, per Ken Rosenthal. Given the consistency of both Greinke and Hamels, for the purposes of this analysis, we will assume the players will age well.

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In advance of the trade deadline, the Angels seemed poised to make a run, and that was before they traded for Zack Greinke. The Angels traded for Zack Greinke and at least on paper, that made their starting rotation laughably awesome. Even though the trade might’ve had more to do with the playoffs and signing Greinke long-term, the Angels still had to finish well in the regular season, and there was little reason to believe Greinke wouldn’t help them do that.

Greinke hasn’t helped them do that, at least not yet. He very easily still could — there’s a lot of season left — but so far the Angels are 1-4 in Greinke starts, and he’s averaged about a walk or a hit batter every other inning. He’s allowed 22 runs in 32 innings, and all in all he just hasn’t looked like the same Zack Greinke capable of posting comical strikeouts and walks. Greinke’s another player for whom the Angels are crossing their fingers, where the idea was that Greinke would be a player they could take for granted.

What follows isn’t intended to explain everything that has gone wrong. I think the best explanation for what’s happened with Greinke might be Baseball!, just as that’s the best explanation for how Chris Davis earned a win over Darnell McDonald. What follows might not actually explain anything, but Greinke’s struggles provided a convenient opportunity to bring this up and I’m nothing if not opportunistic. Actually that isn’t true, one could never be nothing. By definition, one is always something. I am something, and possibly opportunistic. All right, moving on.

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The Milwaukee Brewers finally pulled the trigger on the trade that everyone was expecting: The team traded starting pitcher Zack Greinke. In return, the Los Angeles Angels sent a three-prospect package, which middle infielder Jean Segura headlined.

Segura, 22, was recently promoted to the majors for the first time in his pro career and was one of the Angels’ top prospects — if not their best, with the graduation of MVP candidate Mike Trout — but the system is also among the bottom 10 in baseball (and now possibly is one of the five worst). Milwaukee — another bottom-feeder, in terms of their minor league system — moves up a couple of slots with this deal that also included Double-A pitchers John Hellweg and Ariel Pena.

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It has been reported that Brewers GM Doug Melvin is interested in signing two of his front-line pitchers, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, to contract extensions before they become free agents next off-season. This would be a big morale boost for a fanbase that will likely be going through Prince Fielder withdrawal this winter. If Fielder does leave, his $15.5 million salary coming off the books would certainly help create the flexibility to re-sign these two important parts of the organization. However, as with any long-term extension, there are plenty of risks to this plan, especially with Marcum.

Marcum was acquired from the Blue Jays in December 2010 as part of the Brewers’ “go all in for 2011” plan. He had a solid first season in Milwaukee, pitching 200.2 innings with a 3.73 FIP, both career bests. These numbers earned him 2.7 WAR, which due to the league switch and the decline in offense in 2011, was actually 0.9 WAR worse than his 2010 campaign with the Jays.

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Pitchers whose ERAs and estimators disagree are extremely interesting to analyze. On one hand, their signature run prevention mark might appear toward the top of leaderboards while the underlying numbers aren’t as fruitful. On the other side of the spectrum are pitchers like Zack Greinke, who, as Chris Cwik pointed out yesterday, has a vast disconnect between his ERA and FIP. In fact, it’s been that way since the first week of May when he came off of the disabled list.

His 2.63 FIP and 2.12 xFIP suggest that the newly-minted Brewers starter has been one of the best in the league. But Greinke’s actual 5.63 ERA is closer to the bottom than the top, and is three runs higher than his adjusted marks. One of the more popular stats here is E-F, a sortable number that measures the gap between ERA and FIP. Pitchers with a large separation are expected to regress in some fashion, because it is incredibly rare for anyone to finish with a huge disagreement between those two data points.

I thought about taking that concept a bit further and calculating the difference between ERA and xFIP, since the latter metric is a better predictor of future earned run average than its predecessor. This makeshift ‘E-X’ number would be measurable from 2002-now, and it piqued my curiosity to see which pitchers had the largest such gaps in that span.

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First impressions are important. But they aren’t everything.

The sentiment rings especially true in sports: An impact player might not meet expectations in his first game with a new team, and a mediocre player can initially outperform his true talent level by miles. Heck, if first impressions were really that important, Jeff Francoeur would be a perennial MVP contender, and the Phillies would have sought to rescind the Roy Oswalt trade last summer. What happens on the field often lends itself to narratives both preformed and developed, but taking a step back and examining what fuels a hot or a cold start can help keep everything in perspective.

In other words, Brewers fans shouldn’t be overly concerned about Zack Greinke’s shaky debut on Wednesday.

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Since he’s become a regular starter, it’s tempting to look at Zack Greinke’s career and say that he’s been about the same pitcher with an outstanding peak in 2009. Other than that wonderful year, he’s managed an FIP in the mid-threes by striking batters out at a slightly-above-average rate for a starter and showing excellent control of his four-pitch mix. He’s no metronome – his ground ball to fly ball mix has oscillated – but he seems pretty stable.

But zoom in on just the last two years, and the change seems startling. He went from striking out 9.5 batters per nine to a mere 7.4. He added a run of FIP. His swinging strike percentage dove two percent (from above to below average). And his ground-ball rate changed, as is his wont (from dead-on average (40%) to above-average (46%)). His pitching mix changed fairly significantly, too, dropping almost four percent of his curves and five percent of his sliders, while almost doubling his changeup usage.

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Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in baseball. As a Royals fan, I’m biased, but I’m not alone. If you look at CHONE’s own runs saved above replacement, Greinke is the top pitcher projected for 2010. But I’m not interested in a “who is the best pitcher” debate at the moment. When all factors are taken into account, I can imagine good arguments for any one of a number of pitchers, including (but not limited to) Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, and Kei Igawa. My goal in this piece is not to argue Greinke’s case, but to argue that one “knock” on Greinke — his past struggles with depression and social anxiety disorder — should not be considered a significant factor.

Before I start, let me make three things clear: 1) I am not trying to minimize the seriousness of mental health issues; 2) I don’t have any special “inside” information; and 3) I am not a doctor, psychologist, or any other sort of expert or mental health professional; this is a lay opinion of a baseball blogger writing from the “outside.”

I’ve read comparisons of pitcher value going forward in which Greinke’s past mental health issues that caused him to leave baseball for a time in 2006 are given as a reason to grade him down. I disagree; if it’s a worry at all, it’s a relatively insignificant one. This isn’t meant as an “inspirational” piece about the power to overcome obstacles, either — there’s a place for that, but frankly, I’m not sure professional athletics is the arena to which we should look… that’s a rant for another time and place. This is more cold-blooded: it’s about how this should (not) factor into valuations of Greinke.

First of all, despite the way many of the bandwagon-jumping pieces that came out during Greinke’s 2009 Cy Young campaign made it sound, it’s not as if Greinke was out of baseball until right before his historically great 2009. Greinke’s problem actually came to a head four years ago, in 2006. His ‘comeback‘ to the major leagues full-time was three years ago, in 2007. He pitched well in 2007 and 2008 already — he’s been back for a while, and has been fine.

Second, the time off in 2006 as well as the lighter 2007 workload means that Greinke (who has never had a significant injury in his professional career, as far as I know) has fewer miles on his arm — another important factor for his value. So that at least partially (and in my mind, more than fully) offsets whatever risk Greinke’s condition involes.

Third, think for a moment about how many people you know that have struggled or have ongoing struggles with mental health that requires some sort of ongoing treatment (and again, I don’t know any specifics regarding Greinke’s treatment). It seems quite likely that a fair number of baseball players (including very good ones) are dealing with this sort of stuff, and we simply haven’t heard about it (some we have, as with Khalil Greene’s difficulties) because they’ve managed to keep it private. Do you really think professional baseball players are that much different from the rest of us?* If they can deal with it, so can Greinke, who has been dealing with for a few years now.

* And no, I’m not including the ‘shocking‘ increase in the number of players who needed AdderAll prescriptions after baseball banned greenies (which, unlike steroids, definitely didn’t help players’ performance in the past, even if they did do them, which they totally didn’t.).

Fourth, again without minimizing the seriousness of mental health issues, keep in mind that in February 2006, Greinke was just 22. Undoubtedly, social anxiety was the primary factor in Greinke’s difficulties at the time, but it’s also an age at which many people are at a crossroads. In The New Bill James Historical Abstract, James recounts the 1978 tale of the 22-year old Robin Yount, who, like Greinke, had been brought up at a very young age and was going through something of a career crisis, as the Brewers were considering moving him off of shortstop. Like Greinke, Yount thought about leaving baseball entirely (in Yount’s case, to take up professional golf). Some saw this as immaturity, but, as James writes after he returned to baseball

…Yount became a better player than he had been before; his career got traction from the moment he returned. What I didn’t see at the time was that Yount was in the process of making a commitment to baseball… What looked like indecision or sulking was really the process of making a decision… In the biographies of men and nations, success often arrives in the mask of failure (p. 594)

Greinke’s case (aside from the obvious) is obviously different than Yount’s, but there are similarities. Greinke, too, wanted to leave baseball behind for good. But that’s clearly not the case now. Contrary the “Zack’s just so goofy!” stereotype sometimes projected onto him (due to some memorable quotes), the main picture one gets is of a guy who is super-competitive (in everything — Brian Bannister has called Greinke “the most competitive peson I’ve ever met in my life.”) and driven.

Moreover, given baseball’s relative unconcern with its drinking problem, why would teams be concerned about a guy who got help for a treatable problem four years ago when they don’t seem to care all that much about players hitting the town every night while on the road? I’m not moralizing, I’m just “wondering” which is more detrimental to high-level athletic performance. Who knows?.*

* It’s hard to imagine, but maybe Greinke also hits the town with a world-historically awesome entourage of Kyle Farnsworth (Drama), Brian Bannister (“E”), and Billy Butler (Turtle). Um, not that I watch that stupid show.

But I digress. There are many reasons why someone might (wrongly, in my opinion) prefer one pitcher or another to Zack Greinke. Relative to all the various factors, Greinke’s issues with social anxiety shouldn’t be one of them.

It’s safe to say that things have not gone quite like the Kansas City Royals management thought it would in 2009. The club started off pretty well but faded quickly in the standings and the Major League club is now in fourth place in the American League Central division, 11.5 games out of first place.

While the big-league club is floundering, there is some good news on the farm – especially down in low-A ball with the Burlington Bees. In recent years, the Royals organization has been stung by its inability to develop its own starting pitchers. Young stud Zack Greinke has begun to shift that trend and more reinforcements are on the way (albeit it slowly).

The Royals organization drafted two 6’5” prep pitchers in the 2008 draft: Michael Montgomery (supplemental first round) and Tim Melville (fourth round). Melville was a first-round talent who fell due to signability concerns, but the Royals did what any good organization (desperately in need of minor league talent/depth) should do: It ponied up the cash for a deserving talent, giving the organization two outstanding pitching talents from the 2008 draft.

Montgomery, a left-hander, made 12 appearances (nine starts) in 2008 at rookie ball. In 42.2 innings, he allowed 31 hits and posted a 1.69 ERA (3.13 FIP). So far this year, he’s also kept his ERA below 2.00 at 1.69 (2.83 FIP). He’s allowed 33 hits in 48 innings of work. The southpaw, who just turned 20 years old, has posted a walk rate of 3.94 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.88 K/9. He has yet to allow a home run this season, after allowing just two in 2008.

Right-hander Melville signed too late to make his 2008 debut, so he’s a little bit behind Montgomery on the development chart. Nonetheless, he joined the left-hander in low-A ball in 2009, where he’s made 11 starts. In 50 innings, Melville has allowed 48 hits while posting rates of 3.96 BB/9 and 7.20 K/9. The 19-year-old hurler has allowed five home runs and he has a 3.78 ERA (4.34 FIP).

Despite their inexperience, both pitchers rank among the organization’s best three pitching prospects – along with high-A left-hander Danny Duffy. Montgomery features a low-90s fastball, as well as two well-developed secondary pitches: a curveball and changeup. Melville’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 95 mph, a good curveball and a developing changeup that needs work.

Fear not, Royals fans. Help is on the way… Unless Dayton Moore trades Montgomery and Melville for Jerry Hairston or Ramon Vazquez.

Earlier this week, Dave discussed Justin Verlander’s solid stretch of performance lately, noting that it had been on par with, if not better than, any stretch belonging to Zack Greinke. Because Verlander opened the season rather poorly, his overall numbers are not as aesthetically pleasing as the Royals righty, but he has certainly found his groove. Another pitcher, however, is currently in the midst of a fantastic stretch to open his season. The numbers of this pitcher might get overlooked, though, considering the substantial gap between starts.

Chris Carpenter made two starts in April, hit the disabled list with an injury caused from batting, and made two more starts over the last ten days. Carp has looked dominant in all four outings, accruing the following line: 23 IP, 10 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 23 K. Four starts and a 1.1 win value that practically doubles the total wins he has added in 2007 and 2008, when he made a grand total of five appearances. Hitters have managed a mere .127/.169/.152 line with a .193 BABIP, which has certainly fueled his microscopic 0.61 WHIP.

What prevents Carpenter from truly topping stretches put forth by Verlander and Greinke is his innings total. Carpenter has averaged a 71 Game Score through his first four starts, which, while impressive in any fashion, actually falls below all of the top stretches from Verlander and Greinke. Here are the top three from Greinke:

4/8-4/24: 29 IP, 36/6 K/BB, 0.00 ERA, 76 GSC, .186/.239/.245
4/18-5/4: 34 IP, 38/3 K/BB, 0.53 ERA, 80 GSC, .176/.197/.244
4/24-5/9: 33 IP, 33/3 K/BB, 0.82 ERA, 78 GSC, .161/.181/.232

And the top three from Verlander:

4/27-5/14: 29.1 IP,  44/8 K/BB, 0.92 ERA, 77 GSC, .157/.225/.186
5/3- 5/20: 28.1 IP, 43/10 K/BB, 1.27 ERA, 76 GSC, .126/.217/.158
5/8- 5/25: 28.1 IP,  40/7 K/BB, 0.95 ERA, 75 GSC, .155/.212/.175

Carpenter’s opposing slash line bests all six of these stretches, as does his WHIP, but Verlander and Greinke were able to go deeper on average into the games. Still, finishing seventh on this list in terms of the quality of the four game stretch is not anything to frown about.

The success of the Cardinals is certainly married to the production levels of Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, but Carpenter stabilizes the starting rotation and adds a proven ace to the mix. If he cannot stay healthy, the team is not very likely to reach the postseason. Even with his services for 25 or so starts they may struggle to play into October. Though the debate was not as controversial as with Joba Chamberlain, many opined that Carpenter would better serve the Cardinals as their closer this season given the departure of Jason Isringhausen and the likelihood that either Chris Perez or Jason Motte would man the position.

As per usual, starters are more valuable than relievers; the only way making Carpenter the closer would be valid from a statistical standpoint is if he projected to be a below average starter with a relief projection akin to the production levels of Mariano Rivera and Brad Lidge from a year ago. If the decision to have Carpenter close out games was instead derived from the hope that he would remain healthy for a longer period of time, it still smells funny. In four starts, Carpenter has added more wins to the Cardinals than their entire bullpen. If you’re skeptical, the combo of Motte, Franklin, Thompson, Miller, Reyes, Kinney and Boggs (as a reliever) has combined for 0.5 wins above replacement. This speaks more to the ineptitude of their bullpen but serves to show that a good starter in just four starts can be twice as effective, if not more, than a reliever available all season. Plus, who knows how Carpenter would perform in the bullpen or if the supposed lesser workload would prevent injuries?

Due to the gap in time between his starts, Carpenter’s start to the 2009 season is bound to go overlooked, but if he cobbles together a few more incredible outings, it will be impossible to look past his contributions.