Ten Things Mookie Betts Is Doing to Justify the Hype
The funny thing about being a phenom is you don’t really have to be phenomenal. Last season Mookie Betts was both exceptional and therefore the exception to that when he put up a 130 wRC+ in 52 games for the Boston Red Sox. He stole bases, he hit home runs, and he played center field after a life spent in the middle infield. He was your basic run-of-the-mill young star. But even young stars often struggle eventually, so this season figured to be somewhat of a learning process for the 22-year-old center fielder.
Betts didn’t disappoint at being disappointing. After a solid opening week that featured him almost single-handedly beating the expected best team in baseball, the Washington Nationals, in the home opener, Betts faltered. On June 10 — exactly one month ago for those of you without calendars — he was hitting .237/.298/.368. An 0-for-3 the next day made the numbers look worse. In this run environment that could play with exceptional defense, but for Betts that type of production was a disappointment. There was reason to believe he wasn’t playing quite that badly based on batted-ball velocity and a mid-.250s BABIP, and hey, fast forward* one month and Betts has brought his OPS up 131 points to .789.
*That’s a thing old people used to have to do when watching movies on videotape.**
**Videotape is what they used to have back before DVDs.***
***DVDs were what they used to… Actually, you know what? Forget it. I’m old.
During that time he’s put up a 189 wRC+ which, as Mike Petriello notes, puts him in the company of Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Manny Machado. Here are 10 ways Mookie Betts has turned his season around.
1. Hitting The Ball Hard
This is one of those self-explanatory things, like not driving into other cars or not eating plastic. Baseball players do well when they hit the ball hard and Betts has done that, averaging 90.84 mph on his batted balls. That’s 0.02 mph behind Adam Jones and 0.26 mph ahead of Justin Upton. Our numbers indicate Betts has made hard contact 31.4% of the time and medium contact 52.0% of the time. That’s good contact in 83.4% of his plate appearances, two points above league average.
2. Using His Speed
Betts is fast, so hitting the ball on the ground and using his speed to get on base would seem to be a good idea. Betts hasn’t exactly been doing that all season, but he has been doing that at least somewhat. His ground-ball rate of 36.6% is lower than last season and his fly-ball rate is the recipient of the difference, but he’s hitting .308 on grounders, 74 points above the league average.
3. Not Striking Out
This is another one of those obvious things. Sorry, but not everything is complicated. A batted ball no matter how weakly hit has a chance to go for a hit while a strikeout never does. This is the foundational principle on which Dee Gordon rests. Betts isn’t Gordon of course and that’s a good thing because how weird would that be for Gordon’s wife! Also, Betts is a better hitter. But as for the strikeouts, Betts has struck out just 11% of the time. Meanwhile, league average this season is a 20.1%.
4. Spraying The Ball
Some young players get pull happy. They try to hit every pitch for power. Mookie Betts doesn’t do that. He hits the ball everywhere. His line drives go to left, center, and right field. His ground balls go to the right and left sides of the infield. His fly balls land throughout the outfield. The only thing that consistently goes to one particular place is his home runs which go down the left-field line. This makes him tougher to play against as you can’t shift a guy who hits the ball everywhere.
Here’s a chart that summarizes all the above in visual form:
Source: FanGraphs
5. Running The Bases
It’s not that stuff like this makes much of a dent in his numbers, but man is it fun and what is baseball about if not that?
Also this.
6. Having Success While Getting Pitched Differently
A bit. After discovering Betts loves the inside fastball because he can turn on it and whip it into the left-field corner (or off or over the wall), pitchers are throwing him more pitches outside. This is especially true of sliders. Betts has countered by swinging earlier in the count. This has hurt his walk rate a bit. Consider: he’s walking in 7.4% of plate appearances as opposed to 9.9% last season and a career minor-league rate well over 10%. But! Betts has an OPS 83 points higher than league average when swinging on the first pitch. He’s not letting hittable pitches go by to work the count anymore. That may change — baseball is nothing if not a game of adjustments and readjustments — but for now, Betts is a more aggressive hitter and it’s suiting him just fine.
7. Taking Advantage of Fenway
Fenway Park is perhaps the best doubles park in baseball and Betts has used that to his advantage. Thirteen of his 21 doubles have come in Boston this season. Although his home-run output is relatively evenly split with five at home to four hit on the road so far, the fact that he’s short and strong and hits line drives bodes well for taking good advantage of his home park in a Dustin Pedroia-y kind of way. Hey, it might not work elsewhere, but not unlike a batter’s home runs at Coors or a pitcher’s fly-ball outs at Petco, they all still count — so you may as well.
8-10. I Only Have Seven Things, I’m Sorry
Last season, Betts’ teammate Xander Bogaerts spent the better part of the second half of the season trying to deal with major-league sliders and the knots his batting skills were wound up in after trying to hit every single one he saw. Betts’s transition to the league hasn’t been Lando Calrissian smooth, but it’s been smoother than Bogaerts’. Thing is, Bogaerts wasn’t the exception. Even Mike Trout had a rough go of it in the beginning and we won’t mention Bryce Harper because why pour gas on a fire. Young players struggle, but then the good ones turn it on. We may be seeing that right now from Mookie Betts.
8. Finally came to realize the Fenway crowd was actually shouting “MOOOOOK” instead of “BOOOOOOO”
I was saying “Boo-urns”.
It’s like when the Kansas City crowd shouts ‘Mooooo’ for Moustakas. It’s not boo. Totally confused me at first.
Or when Yankee fans used to chant ROOOOO for Babe Ruth.
“ROOOOO” Yeah, we all remember that one.
It took me a while to figure out they were chanting “MOOOOOOOSE” for Mussina. Thought he was getting booed after 7+ strong innings of work lol
To this day I’m not sure if they were “BOOOOOO” or “LOOOUUUU” for Lou Merloni
I mean, having accrued 2.8 fWAR/4.0 bWAR through 83 games in your age 22 season, it seems like he’s justifying the hype to me.
While Betts is doing his share to justify his hype, I feel sorta bad for Brock Holt. He gets little to no mention, yet he’s 2nd amongst the Red Sox hitters in WAR. The only guy that edges him out is Mookie Betts, but Betts also has an additional 100 PA. It’s really a shame to see Holt go unrecognized.
You must not live in New England. If the Sox traded Holt for Giancarlo Stanton tomorrow, you’d get at least 10 calls into the local sports radio show along the lines of “I don’t like this move. I know Stanton’s a nice playah and all, but you just can’t put a value on Brawck’s haht!”
This is a joke, right crazy person? Yeah, Brock Holt is so unrecognized that he’s going to the All-Star Game and Betts isn’t. The guy who’s truly unrecognized is Bogaerts, who leads AL shortstops in a boatload of categories but was relegated to the last-5 vote-in.
His name is ‘crazy person’
That’s true, Holt going to the All-Star Game means he is unrecognized.
Brock Holt!!!
Also, fun read! 8-10 made me laugh out loud. At work. Oh well.
Lame. If your title is going to have 10 things then put 10 things. How about he’s a top 10 OF this season? That he’s a plus defensive CF despite playing in the MI his whole career? That he’s striking out less and hitting for more power. That he’s got a reverse split and is hitting RHP better.
I’d rather they stay away from the lame “N Things Your X Says About Y” sorts of clickbait titles, but if they’re going to use them in jest then undercutting them by not actually having the number of points promised by the headline is the very least they can do for the joke. Or, Mark, in other words, this.
Joser: “In other words . . .” What? finish the sentence, I’m so confused right now. Did you get pulled away from your keyboard? Are you being held hostage?
TB Click the link embedded in the bold print ‘this’
Mark, I bet your parties are fun!
Also I’m pretty sure that Dee Gordon’s wife knows that Mookie Betts’ strikeout rate does not in fact make him indistinguishable from Dee despite the author’s contention.
#9 – IFFB % by month;
16.1% Mar/Apr
10.4% May
4.80% June
9.10% July (only 7 games)
June was a great month. Spreading the ball (highest Oppo%), hitting line drives (highest LD%), and posted a .401 wOBA and 156 wRC+….if he continues anywhere near that he is definitely living up to the hype.
K% by month reveals a similar trend:
17% – Mar/Apr
8% – May
9% – June
9% – July
Seems like he figured out a far amount once the calendar flipped to May.
Pitchers came into the season pitching him more aggressively in the strike zone, because last year, they saw how willing he was to try to work the count in his favor. It’s one of the reasons his numbers were down at the start of this season. He was taking pitches and getting behind in the count, causing him to strike out more and make weaker contact.
Once he figured out what the pitchers were doing, he started attacking more pitches early in the count. The article alludes to this change and it’s completely correct. Pitchers made an adjustment to Betts, who figured it out, and now he’s punishing them for it. When they get tired of feeding him first-pitch meatballs trying to get ahead in the count, his walk rate will go back up. His batting stats are only going to get better.
You should add one more video to Betts’ baserunning prowess: he scored from first on Bogaerts single the other night. Granted it was a 3-2 2out single, but he was smart enough to get a jump where he was almost on 2nd base prior to the ball reaching the outfield.
The especially impressive thing about that play: Even though he was running on the pitch, he actually had to stop for a moment to avoid getting hit by the baseball (which was rocketed just to the right of second base). Yet he was then able to re-accelerate and make it home without a play.
I DID IT ALL FOR THE MOOKIE!
SO DID I!
There’s a pretty big cluster of green dots are on the left side of the infield……..
Which is a hell of a lot better than a big cluster of green dots on the right side of the infield…..especially when you have speed
SHHHHHH! Thou shall not interrupt the Mookie Betts circlejerk with “facts” that run counter to the author’s claims.
SHHHHH! Can’t you see how overrated Mookie is? I mean, he has only 6.1 WAR in his first 135 games in the big leagues…
Horribly overrated. That Trout guy out in Anaheim is so much better.
I’m just saying…he’s older than Harper.
Steve’s right: opposing teams should be shifting to the left side on Mookie, which would give him about a half-dozen more hits so far and up his BA from .276 to .294.
Clearly the conspiracy to overrate Red Sox prospects has expanded from fangraphs and other media outlets to include umpires, scorekeepers, opposing players… How high does it go?
Hush, there is no conspiracy.
(Of course if there was, that’s exactly what you’d expect them to say!)
Mookie is projected by both ZiPS and Steamer to finish the year with 4.5 WAR. He’s also paid the major league minimum, which means at $7MM/win, the Red Sox are getting >$30MM in surplus value out of him. This is why they did not want to trade him for Cole Hamels, who is projected for 4 WAR but is making $20MM.
Phillies fans who are holding out for an elite prospect at the deadline, don’t get your hopes up.
It seems to me like the only Phillies fan who’s holding out for a king’s ransom for Hamels (and Papelbon and Harang and Howard and even Ben Revere) has a dad named Ruben Amaro.
Where are the “oh my god another Red Sox article” people at? Following Sox prospects like I did I kind of knew he would hit not saying I knew it for sure, but mookies arm and defense of almost big almost made me forget about the sublime defensive Jackie Bradley Jr who is in my opinion the best. Center fielder in baseball
No one’s popping up because Mookie is awesome and everyone likes reading about him, unlike a certain 27 year old in AAA.
I understand you’re hating on JBJ but he’s not 27 and he’s raking in triple-a made the International League all-star game and led the league in votes . And when Farrell did let him bat this year, it was against aces and knuckleballers like RA but hia swing looks a lot better, and you might know that if you actually paid attention to any Red Sox games
Just to go a little farther, I’ve seen you hate on Mookie multiple times, Jackie just turned 25, and since he is a late inning replacement he only faces are throwing relievers, and literally has been facing nothing but aces. But hey what do I know I just looked at the numbers and matchups
…I was on the Mookie bandwagon before most Red Sox fans were.
The extent of my “hating on Mookie” is my saying that I’d rather have Xander Bogaerts longterm, because I believe that X is going to be an absurd mega-stud, while Mookie is “only” going to be a very, very good baseball player.
“…I was on the Mookie bandwagon before most Red Sox fans were.”
bwahahahahaha
A) I live in Boston. My reaction to WEEI and The Sports Hub hyping Mookie was “it’s about fucking time.”
B) I’ve been blowing the horn for the Mookie at least as long as the OtM guys have, and I figure that they might follow Sox prospects in A-ball a little more closely than the majority of Sox fans do.
Call me crazy, though.
unless you’re talking about Castillo, who you’re not obviously. Who is also raking in Triple A
…I’m talking about Joe Kelly, the guy whose focus articles caused all that “Why do you only talk about the Sawx?!!!!” rage a couple months ago.
“A batted ball no matter how weakly hit has a chance to go for a hit while a strikeout never does.” Um, dropped third strike anyone?
A dropped third strike has a chance to go for a hit? Doesn’t ‘hit’ require making contact in some way?
Yea, a dropped third strike isn’t ruled a hit.
Would you guys rather have Betts in his prime or Cutch in his 30’s?
Yes, this relates to fantasy baseball, but I’m curious because I respect the Fangraph community’s opinion. I’m genuinely curious how you guys feel about Mookie as a hitter a few years down the road from now.
If that bothers you, then too bad.
Mookie. Because he’s cost-controlled now, and by the time he’s not, he’ll just be entering his prime (and worth a ton of money, not that he isn’t now) and Cutch will be past his.
That was my logic, as well. It’s for a keeper league, so I’d be passing on Cutch next season in order to have Mookie for the next few years. I wasn’t sure if I was crazy or if I was writing off Cutch too easily.
I think he’s a 125 wRC+ (.280/.350/.440) guy with 20-30 steals and good defense for 10 years.
Im higher on the slugging. Over 800 ops me thinks
In order to justify passing on keeping ‘Cutch next season, I’d be banking on Mookie’s ops being in that neighborhood, I think… but I agree. I think an ops over .800 is very do-able. That walk rate could easily improve with time and he still could add a notch or two in the power dept.
I’m not sure he’ll ever approach 30 HR’s, but I’m not sure Cutch has many years left doing that, either. Cutch could hit 25-ish a couple more times, but even so, I’m thinking in the long run it could be worth keeping Mookie next season instead of Cutch (even though I kind of feel like a crazy person as I type that).
I think he’s Pedroia, but in CF, and with maybe a tick more pop.
I’ll take Cutch for the next 4 years.
@Lester,
Mookie seems to have a generous leg up in the speed dept, but I think the Pedroia comparison isn’t too shabby, otherwise.
He is what you’re predicting now, over the next ten years? Mookie is a 300 hitter with possible .500 slugging seasons depending on doubled output and if that year he ups his yearly 17 homeruns to 25. I expect a SMALL improvement from mookie past 22. But hey, what do us redsox fans know we only live and die on soxprospects.com ml hame threads
Doubles* output
Mookie Betts= Comment fodder.
Nicely done. Fun read.