The Boston Red Sox Make a Lowe-Risk Signing

The Boston Red Sox addressed their hole at first base over the weekend, coming to terms with free agent Nathaniel Lowe, formerly of the Washington Nationals. Lowe has struggled in 2025, hitting .216/.292/.373 for an 86 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR, his worst showing as a professional.

I don’t think that anyone — not even a member of Lowe’s family — would object too strongly to the declaration that Lowe has had an abysmal season. Lowe has never actually been a star, but with a .274/.359/.432 four-year run from 2021 to 2024, averaging 2.7 WAR per season, he had at least established himself in that Serviceable B+ First Baseman category. The end of Lowe’s time in Texas came quickly, and after a Silver Slugger in 2022, a Gold Glove and a World Series ring in 2023, and another solid offensive campaign in 2024, he found himself tradable for pitching help (lefty Robert Garcia) after the team acquired Jake Burger for reasons that still confound me. The Nats were making noise about being competitive in 2025, and there was a reasonable expectation that Lowe would improve the position without requiring a major long-term commitment.

ZiPS saw decline coming for Lowe heading into the season, but mostly for after 2025, with Steamer feeling similarly. Kudos to Derek Carty’s THE BAT X, which did have concerns that this Lowe rider would drive a little slower, only projecting a 102 wRC+ in the preseason.

None of this sounds exactly sunny, but I do like this signing for a few reasons. First off, let me preface things by acknowledging there are serious concerns about Lowe’s bat right now. If this were a case of just being able to hunker down and wait for the bounceback, then someone likely would have been willing to claim Lowe on waivers and pick up the pro-rated remainder of his $10.3 million salary for 2025. The Red Sox didn’t have to do that to add Lowe to the roster, only needing to pay the pro-rated minimum salary, meaning there’s no financial risk for the team, nor any guaranteed money owed to him past the end of the season.

Boston originally hoped that this would be the year that Triston Casas would be the “set it and forget it” first baseman and solidify a position that hadn’t been a significant plus for a really long time. Coming into the season, our Depth Charts projection (combining ZiPS and Steamer) predicted a 2.3-WAR season from Casas. Just for fun, guess the last time that Red Sox first basemen combined for at least 2.3 WAR in a season.

That… didn’t quite work out as hoped. Casas struggled early, and a ruptured patella ended any chance he might’ve had to salvage his season. Playing Rafael Devers at first base seemed like a natural solution, but after he’d already felt blindsided by the way the organization handled his third base-to-DH switcheroo after Boston signed Alex Bregman, Devers was reluctant to suddenly learn a new position after not playing the field for two months.

We’ve already covered the ensuing Devers trade and its fallout in depth here at FanGraphs, so we won’t be adjudicating that today. The result, however, is that first base for the Red Sox has become a fairly traditional platoon of Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro. Half of this platoon turned out marvelously, with Gonzalez hitting .354/.404/.667 against left-handed pitching. Toro, on the other hand, had never hit lefties or righties particularly well, and ended up as the strong side of the platoon by the process of elimination.

Lowe, on the other hand, has a career .786 OPS against righties, and even if you simply take the numbers from his dreadful 2025, his .235/.312/.421 line against righties represents a major improvement from the .212/.276/.339 that Red Sox first basemen have combined for against them. ZiPS gives Lowe a .255/.335/.401 rest-of-season projection in Boston by the full ZiPS model. That’s hardly scintillating, but his projected .258/.342/.412 line against righties would be a solid platoon contribution, especially for a player that the team basically picked up for free. No remotely plausible option at first base projects better against righties for the Red Sox the rest of this season.

I really stretched plausible as far as I could to project big-spoon platoon options at first base, and Lowe looks like the obvious answer of this group.

Theoretically, with another year of arbitration remaining, Lowe could return to the Red Sox in 2026, with the rest of this season representing an audition. In practice, with a maximum 20% salary cut allowed in arbitration, Lowe would have to turn into Kyle Schwarber to get the minimum-allowed $8.24 million offer from Boston. It does allow him the opportunity to impress other possible suitors, though, and there’s no contender better equipped to give him playing time than the Sox.

In the end, this is a minor transaction, like practically every move after the trade deadline. But it’s also a short-term deal with high upside. The Red Sox are paying next to nothing to take a chance on a hitter who plays a position of need and is just a year removed from a .265/.361/.401 (123 wRC+) campaign, a hitter who despite his overall struggles has been above average against righties. Thumbs up.