The Cubs Survived the World Series Hangover

Tonight, the Chicago Cubs begin their attempt to become the first team to repeat as champions since the New York Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. Since free agency really took hold about 40 years ago, the only other team to win consecutive titles has been Toronto in 1992 and 1993. Since integration, the A’s, Blue Jays, Reds, and Yankees are the only franchises to repeat — and the runs by Cincinnati, Oakland, and (in one case) New York all occurred in the 1970s. While parity seemingly drives the game, a repeat isn’t impossible, and the Cubs have passed the all-important first step of making the playoffs.

That’s not to say it was easy. The Cubs dug themselves a hole early this season, going 43-45 before the All-Star break, about eight wins shy of where the projections thought they’d be at that point. In the second half, however, they produced a 49-25 record, about six wins better than the projections called for. In the end, the club fell just a few games short of their preseason forecasts and made the playoffs without much trouble.

As I wrote in September, it’s hard to characterize this Cubs team as one that’s underachieved. While some have attributed the club’s early-season difficulties to a “hangover” effect from last year’s championship, there’s not much evidence that the club actually underperformed reasonable expectations, receiving strong campaigns from a number of their stars and good production from unexpected sources. There’s also little evidence that World Series hangovers exist in the first place.

More on that second point in a moment. First, let’s consider the team’s most important players. We begin with Kris Bryant. The Cubs’ third baseman might not be clutch, but he recorded his third consecutive season of six wins or better, finishing sixth in the majors by WAR. And about his clutch performance: while it might be fair to say he hasn’t been clutch, that’s obvious different than being clutch. Keep in mind that the 150 wRC+ Bryant has recorded in low- and medium-leverage situations has occurred over 1,801 plate appearances; the 87 wRC+ he’s produced in high-leverage situations, meanwhile, is the result of just 213 plate appearances.

A sample of 213 PAs is obviously subject to considerable variation. For example, did you notice when, in the 197 regular-season plate appearances between September 2 of last year and April 23 of this one, that Bryant recorded an 82 wRC+? Probably not. (Especially since he recorded a 148 wRC+ in the middle of it during last year’s postseason.) Those 197 PA where Bryant wasn’t so good obviously don’t represent his real talent level. They occurred over an interval of two different seasons and he actually played well in the middle of that span. So naturally, if those somehwat disjointed 200-or-so plate appearances don’t reflect the real Bryant, it’s possible that the other 200-or-so high-leverage plate appearances — spread out over three years and inclusive only of regular-season play — likely don’t, either. Probably best not to make a big deal over them.

In any event, Bryant has been great this season, and while teammate Anthony Rizzo has seen his production drop and hasn’t been close to MVP-level, he put up another good season, as well. Combined with Bryant, the two Cubs stars have been one of the top-10 position-player duos in the majors.

As the table above reveals, a good duo isn’t a guarantee of a good season. Production is require from elsewhere, too — and the Cubs received that, as well. From unexpected sources, in some cases.

When Paul Swydan looked at the best part-time players of the season, three Cubs made the list. A fourth player — Albert Almora — received honorable mention. And while there were expectations regarding one of the players on Swydan’s list — namely, Kyle Schwarber’s — the same can’t be said for Almora, Ian Happ, or Jon Jay, all of whom appeared there, too.

From a collection of three players expected to record basically replacement-level numbers, the Cubs got essentially two full-time, above-average starters. The team also had one other source of unexpected production, but that came in the form of a major trade, filling long- and short-term needs in the rotation with Jose Quintana. The Cubs rotation took a pretty big step back this season. John Lackey pitched poorly. Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester were much closer to average than anticipated, and Kyle Hendricks regressed a bit while missing a quarter of the season. Mike Montgomery was adequate as a fill-in, but the Cubs rotation was in need of both innings and a frontline starter.

Of the 13 starts he made with the Cubs before they clinched, Jose Quintana allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of them starts, averaging more than six innings every time out. He put together a 3.38 FIP and 3.50 ERA, both more than 20% better than league-average. That might not feel like ace-level stuff, but only eight pitchers were at least 20% better than average in both categories throughout the season. He stabilized a rotation that desperately needed it. He also puts the team in a much better position not only for the playoffs and but also the near future, with three more cheap seasons remaining on his contract.

As for the prospect of a hangover, playing 10% more games in a season is going to take its toll, as might a bit more attention and celebrations. The last few years, it certainly feels like a hangover effect exists. We’ve seen the Royals, Giants, Red Sox, and Giants all fail to make the playoffs the year after taking home the crown. Seems like a trend, right? I’m not convinced. The graph below shows year-after win totals, since the strike, for teams that won the World Series.

Only the 2014 Red Sox, 2013 Giants, 2007 Cardinals, 2003 Angels, and 1998 Marlins failed to finish at least .500 following the World Series; only the Marlins and Red Sox fell well below the mark. The 2016 Royals finished at .500 — which isn’t too bad, especially considering their expectations — and the Giants in 2015 were a pretty good team. On average, teams won nearly 87 games following the World Series (the median is 89) and more than half the teams returned to the playoffs.

Very recent history seems to suggest a year-after effect, but the Cubs fall more in line with the clubs of the past 20 years by making the playoffs and having a good season rather than falling short. Getting from eight teams to one is a difficult proposition, as the Cubs already know, but they survived the regular season, giving themselves a chance to repeat.