The Tigers Wrangle a Colt
The Detroit Tigers locked up one of their top young prospects to a long-term extension over the weekend, signing infielder Colt Keith to a six-year contract worth $28.6 million guaranteed, including a buyout after year six. With three team options totaling an additional $38 million, Keith might not hit free agency until after the 2032 season. Those options can be enriched further, by up to $18 million, depending on Keith’s success at earning MVP votes, Silver Slugger awards, and All-Star appearances. The deal has a maximum value of $82 million over nine years.
One of Detroit’s recent struggles has been its inability to find and develop offensive talent. This wasn’t the case during the team’s run of success in the early 2010s, with future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera as its anchor. But as Cabrera and Victor Martinez aged, and other key contributors, such as Prince Fielder, J.D. Martinez and Austin Jackson, left for other teams, the Tigers’ offensive output dropped to the bottom of the league. Aside from Nick Castellanos, who was traded in 2019, none of the young hitters coming up through the system have panned out.
That said, the Tigers have seen some signs of hope over the last few years. When healthy, Riley Greene has been very good, and while Spencer Torkelson had a rough start to his big league career, he improved significantly in the second half of 2023. Detroit still needs more, though, and that may come in the form of Keith, a fifth-round pick from the COVID-abbreviated 2020 draft. Keith showed promise in 2022, hitting .301/.370/.544 for West Michigan of the High-A Midwest League, but he injured his shoulder badly on a pickoff attempt in June, costing him the rest of the season. He recovered enough to play in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .344/.463/.541 in 80 plate appearances over 19 games.
Despite the short season, he ranked atop Detroit’s prospect list found in our humble home. Splitting 2023 between Double- and Triple-A, Keith stayed healthy and hit a combined .306/.380/.552 with 27 homers and 38 doubles. ZiPS translates that performance into a .268/.328/.454, 20 homer line, well below the level of phenom, but more than respectable for a second base/third base prospect in his first go at the high minors.
With a contract that can stretch for nine years, let’s crank out the long-term ZiPS projection for Keith.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | .252 | .314 | .434 | 507 | 72 | 128 | 29 | 3 | 19 | 75 | 44 | 128 | 2 | 107 | -3 | 1.6 |
| 2025 | .254 | .317 | .442 | 527 | 77 | 134 | 30 | 3 | 21 | 80 | 47 | 127 | 2 | 110 | -3 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | .257 | .322 | .451 | 545 | 82 | 140 | 31 | 3 | 23 | 85 | 51 | 125 | 2 | 114 | -3 | 2.4 |
| 2027 | .258 | .324 | .456 | 562 | 87 | 145 | 32 | 2 | 25 | 90 | 54 | 124 | 2 | 116 | -3 | 2.6 |
| 2028 | .259 | .327 | .458 | 576 | 90 | 149 | 33 | 2 | 26 | 93 | 57 | 124 | 2 | 118 | -2 | 2.8 |
| 2029 | .257 | .327 | .459 | 579 | 92 | 149 | 32 | 2 | 27 | 94 | 59 | 121 | 2 | 118 | -2 | 2.9 |
| 2030 | .258 | .328 | .461 | 577 | 92 | 149 | 32 | 2 | 27 | 94 | 59 | 121 | 2 | 119 | -2 | 3.0 |
| 2031 | .259 | .329 | .460 | 567 | 89 | 147 | 32 | 2 | 26 | 93 | 58 | 120 | 2 | 119 | -3 | 2.9 |
| 2032 | .261 | .331 | .462 | 567 | 89 | 148 | 32 | 2 | 26 | 93 | 58 | 120 | 1 | 120 | -3 | 2.8 |
While those are not star-level projections, they are the ones of a player you’d like to keep around through his prime. There are lots of familiar names among Keith’s ZiPS comps, such as Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock, Jedd Gyorko, Castellanos himself, Rafael Devers, Ryan Zimmerman, Travis Fryman, and Joe Crede. No, none of them were Hall of Famers – though it’s plausible that Devers could hit enough homers to prove the exception – but each were solid big leaguers.
One of the largest remaining questions around Keith is what position he’ll play in the majors. He’s played both second and third base, and appears to be below average at both. The probabilistic coordinate method that ZiPS uses graded Keith at about eight runs below average at second base, per 1300 innings, in 2023 and six runs below average at third. My colleague Eric Longenhagen feels that Keith is more likely to stick at second, rather than third.
During his stay in Toledo, Keith began to see more time at second base rather than his native third. He’s a bad defender at both spots but has a much greater chance at becoming passable (read: hidden) at second, where some of Keith’s issues with throwing are masked.
[…]
Keith has bulked up considerably since signing, and the effects of his increased size are evident on defense. Once a fair bet to stay on the middle infield, he is now fighting just to stay at third. He is stiff and bulky, his actions are well below average, and while he shows you a big arm when he gets to wind up and really let it eat, he struggles to throw from odd platforms. It’s feasible a team could live with him playing third base situationally, but it’s not ideal, and Colt is a 30-grade defender right now.
In a perfect world, Keith would stick at one of the two positions, with Jace Jung manning the other. One of the nice things about a rebuild is that teams get the chance to experiment, and the Tigers take advantage of that with Keith. Playing him in left field would be a great deal less exciting, but not a disastrous outcome, with mean projected OPS+ numbers in the high 110s during his prime. Left field Keith profiles similarly to Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who as one of the best outfielders available in free agency this offseason managed to snag a three-year deal with the Diamondbacks.
There are risks that come with signing a player with so little professional experience, but those are reflected in the price. Yes, $28.6 million is a lot of cash, but not so much in the context of baseball, and the ZiPS projection for Keith suggests a $38 million offer, taking into consideration the reduced salaries of the cost-controlled years. Similar extensions to Jon Singleton and Scott Kingery didn’t work out particularly well for the teams that made them, namely the Astros and Phillies, but those deals weren’t detrimental, either. The upside for Detroit here is considerable.
Are the Tigers playoff contenders in 2024? Probably not. But they’re not so far away that it would be a black swan event if they made some noise in the AL Central race or threatened to grab the last wild card spot. If they succeed, it will likely be in large part due to players like Keith taking a step forward.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
smart, low-risk move by the FO
This is how FOs should be doing it. Even if Keith never becomes a useful big leaguer, they’re out the equivalent of two or three years of a bargain basement starter on the FA market.
I think Keith is going to hit, and if he hits as well as I think he would make a boatload of money in arbitration. Ty France agreed to a deal worth almost $7M in arbitration this year, and Keith’s arbitration years would have taken place 3 years from now. Even though Keith is likely to wind up at 1B or DH (like Ty France, not coincidentally) I think that the $29M or whatever he will make during those years is going to be a lot less than him going year to year in arbitration.
Never had an MLB AB…Great deal for the player! Historically these types of deals are not good for the team. Outside of maybe 2 players that signed early extensions…. most of the time the early extensions don’t work out for the teams and players never turn out like they think.
Uh, citations needed.
uhhh quit being lazy and do the research:
Active players with pre mlb extensions
Jon Singleton
Scott Kingery
Eloy Jimeniz
Evan White
Luis Robert
Jackson Chourio
Colt Keith
The Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez extensions are good examples of why this works. The White Sox may not be winning the Jimenez deal, but the benefits from the Luis Robert deal are so extreme that it more than makes up for the Jimenez one.
Another way of putting it is that the team may only be 50/50 on winning the deal, but when they team wins it is typically for way more than what happens when the team loses.
There are some other deals that–while they aren’t before the person even got called up–it’s still more or less in the same category. Corbin Carroll, Brandon Lowe, and Michael Harris II all had less than 90 days of service time. The team probably paid more because it showed that they weren’t totally overmatched at the MLB level but there were still a ton of question marks about both Lowe and Harris II at the plate when those deals were signed.
I def hear ya….but right now the success rate is ~20% of these deals panning out. I would argue that the Tigers paid full freight for this deal based on Dan’s projections above. Maybe they get a 20% discount…but to me that’s not enough if I was the Tigers based on the risk reward.
This FA class currently… a 2.8 projected War Player is getting ~20aav on the market. Tigers have team options for Keiths Deal at yr 7,8,9 (his FA years) that are valued at 52$MM total if my math is correct due to hidden escalators.
20 AAV for current market 2.8 war player which keith is projected at * 3 Team Option years is right at 60mm for a full freight FA. Granted my math and the deal specifics could be way off as i’m not privy to all the info….. just basing it off of media.
I think this is great deal for the player and an OK to Bad deal for the tigers. It won’t sink them though…so i guess whatever ha.
Just reading the article above I don’t think your math is quite right. I see the contract as follows:
Base contract, 6 years, $28.6M
3 option years, +$38M
Incentives (MVP votes, Silver Slugger, etc), + up to an additional $18M.
Just looking at possible AAV outcomes for the deal:
So if he totally busts, the Tigers pay $28.6M for nothing (0 WAR output)
Let’s say he underperforms ZiPS projection, barely a regular, like 1.0 WAR/year: Tigers pay the guaranteed $28.6M for around 6WAR, $4.76M/WAR which is way below market rate but not a great roster spot.
If he meets ZiPS projections, they probably pick up his option years, but he’s likely not earning many of the incentives. Tigers pay $66.6M for 23WAR, or $2.89M/WAR, and that looks like a good investment all around.
Finally, if Colt is earning the incentives to make the extra $18M, then I’m guessing the WAR more than makes up for the extra dollars and the Tigers are really happy.
To me, the only real negative outcome there is if he entirely busts (and obviously health issues fall into this category). Even the low performing outcome isn’t so costly as to cripple the team’s spending; honestly the roster spot is the bigger issue and it looks kinda like Eloy’s deal in my eyes.
Gotcha! Thanks for breakdown.
But isn’t that incorrect too? Technically they could have his first 3 yrs at league min. So say 700k *3 for 2.1$MM total. 28.6$mm – 2.1$mm = 26.5$MM. So essentially they’re buying his arb yrs (4,5,6) out for 26.5$mm…. arb 1 , arb 2 and arb 3. Granted he will likely be a super 2 guy. FG has had an article where on avg players get 20% of full value arb 1 , 40% arb 2 and 60% arb 3.
Yrs 4,5 and 6 zips projections have him with 2.8 war on avg/yr. So call it 20$MM/yr on open free agency market to make it easy. Arb 1 would be then be 20mm* .2 = 4$MM. Arb 2 would be20$mm *.4= 8$MM and arb 3 would be 12-15$MM. All this arb projections equals 24-27$MM total for yr 4,5,6. Which is right where he got paid. That’s if he even pans out.
Now if you look at the FA yrs. If all goes to plan and he hits his projections and the tigers excercise all 3 team options. Then they would owe him that 38$mm for 8.7 war (7,8,9) Call it 60-65$mm total value on open free agency market. Essentially it looks like they’re paying full freight on the first 6 yrs of contract to be able to save 30 million total on his team option / 3 free agency yrs?
A) Inflation matters when projecting Arb awards…especially when those awards will occur under a different CBA.
B) Inflation matters even more when looking at the option years…and so does contract length.
28 year olds coming off a few consecutive 3 WAR/650 years don’t sign 3 year deals with team options after each season.
C) …what if he’s Brandon Lowe?
To recap:
If he’s a complete zero, they lose $28m.
If he’s useful but not worth the options, they lose ~$10m.
If he comes out as projected, they save $30m while getting out after age-30.
If he’s a 4+ WAR guy…they save ~$6m during arbitration, then $40m+ during the option years.
Looks cheap.
not Albies/Acuna cheap, but cheap.
From a player’s standpoint, those two contracts are 1A & 1B on any Most Disastrous Contracts in League History lists.
Both of their agents should lose their license for malpractice.
Yeah Keith would have had to have come up last spring, played the full year, been worth 3-4 WAR, and then signed this contract to approach those two.
It was reported yesterday that Jace Jung was moving to third which probably means Colt is ticketed for second and likely the opening day starter there.
Saw that too in Justin Mason’s chat earlier. A lot of this deal’s value hinges on whether he can play a passable 2B or ends up DH’d
People bring up the obvious bad contracts, but what about Eloy Jimenez who signed a pretty similar contract? He hasn’t turned into what people hoped, but he also hasn’t been a complete disaster. It feels like the biggest problem with that contract is not the money, but that it made the White Sox decide he was one of their core and assume he’d hit the top end of his projections and they’ve now waited 5 years for him to be that player.
I am not sure anyone could have predicted how injured he was going to be. And even then, I still don’t necessarily think that deal is underwater, and if it is then it’s pretty close to break-even. He has a career wRC+ of 118. There are something like 22 teams that had a worse wRC+ from their DHs in 2023, and there were something like 20 teams that had a worse wRC+ from their DHs in 2022.
The White Sox probably should trade him because they need a hard culture reset but he’s going to get paid about as much as Joc Pederson is getting paid this year, and there’s an affordable option if he rebounds.
100% the culture is bad there! Whats more fascinating to me is the clubhouse dynamic part of these types of pre-mlb deals, and not really about is this a good deal or a bad deal.
Think we could all agree successful clubs have the best cultures. Players & Coaches have to earn everything and then when they do they get rewarded and paid their worth. It shows other players/coaches this is what happens when you do your job etc.
I could see where these deals could definitely create an interesting clubhouse dynamic when prospects start securing mega deals over active roster players. Do you think that’s what happened to the CWS? Would be a great topic to discuss!
The scenario where the kids got deals over the veterans doesn’t really apply here because the White Sox’s veterans—the few they actually had—already had deals. And even so I think most vets know the business of the game works.
The problems with the White Sox and culture goes back longer than this. At the minimum, it started with Tony La Russa who let the whole thing fall apart. But some people take it all the way back to the Drake Laroche nonsense. The White Sox have a problem where if you act up there’s no accountability. That starts from the top.
I predicted Eloy’s injuries. He’s missed time pretty much every year since Rk ball, massive guy. The full prediction was that he’d take off his late 20s when he gained some sea legs so we’ll see there I guess
Just wanted to pat myself on the back
I don’t see how the White Sox would/should have behaved much differently re: Eloy without the extension. He was a top prospect with a good bat and questionable health. And the results have been largely consistent with expectations (with worse fielding).
“Are the Tigers playoff contenders in 2024? Probably not.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHC1230OpOg
That sentence surprised me quite a bit as well. The Tigers’ rotation has become worse, but their lineup should be clearly better than last year. They may not be better than the Guardians or the Twins (whose rotation has become worse as well), but I see them having a solid chance to contend for the championship in the – albeit weak – AL Central.
Gruß,
BSHH
Keith sounds a lot like Nolan Gorman. Both have nearly identical scouting reports and have the same defensive questions. Gorman looked like a 30 defender in 2022 but surprisingly looked like a 40 defender in 2023, so maybe there’s hope for Keith. I think Gorman is a 2-3 WAR player at his peak, which Detroit would gladly take for the money they gave Keith.
My issue is less with pre-MLB extensions (like some commentors are complaining about) and more with Keith himself. I’m just…not sold on his game. Anyone else out there feeling the same?
Regardless of the outlook for Keith in particular (whose ZiPS projections do look good), many prospects won’t likely be open to such a pre-MLB extension. Those who received large signing bonuses are in a more comfortable situation to wait for higher salaries in arbitration and free agency than Keith was.
Gruß,
BSHH
^super important.
There’s a reason AA’s ninja magic didn’t work on Swanson and Fried.