Which Young Players Should Be Next To Sign Long-Term Deals?

The main reason why the Astros have been able to survive and thrive despite the departure of a large percentage of the core of their 2017 World Series-winning team is their success in developing their young talent. One of the most prominent of these players, Kyle Tucker, had his breakout season in the shortened 2020 and cemented those gains with a .294/.359/.557, 4.9 WAR 2021 campaign that saw him get his first MVP votes. With Tucker heading to arbitration this winter for the first time, the Astros discussed a long-term contract with their incumbent right fielder in recent weeks, but the deal has apparently fallen through.

The Astros recently spoke with Kyle Tucker’s camp about a contract extension, but the sides were unable to come to a deal and are no longer engaged, sources tell me and @brianmctaggart. Tucker will become arbitration-eligible for the first time at the end of this season.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) May 16, 2022

While it hasn’t worked out, it’s the right idea. Teams want to lock up their best young players, and many players, especially before they get that first big arbitration bump, are interested in mitigating their personal risk. Wander Franco was more likely than not to beat the $182 million he’ll receive from the Rays and the team they trade him to around 2029, but it also provided him some real security, given he’s still a couple years from arbitration. These types of deals can be win-win.

So who should be the next players to get inked for the long haul? Here are my favorite picks. For each, I’ve included their ZiPS projections for both performance and a fair contract; after all, I don’t own a team, so I don’t have the motivation to pitch any absurdly team-friendly agreements like the one Ozzie Albies signed with the Braves. I’ve also omitted Juan Soto since we’ve already talked about him and a long-term deal quite a bit, most recently in Jay Jaffe’s piece before the season that already has the ZiPS projections. If you want a figure, let’s just say 10 years and all circulating US currency.

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros: Seven years, $128 million

You’ve already struck out with one of your outfielders; why not go after another one? Alvarez isn’t quite as well-rounded as Tucker is, but I think he’s even more interesting in terms of pure offensive talent. If 2021 erased any worrying lingering injury issues, then 2022 should be doing that for any concern that he’d have trouble with a dejuiced ball. Despite the juice being gone, he’s still crushing the pulp that remains, and even our least optimistic projection for him now has him finishing with more home runs than 2021.

The bump in power is the most obvious — his average exit velocity has improved to a stunning 95 mph — but that’s not the only way that Alvarez has improved offensively. His plate discipline has taken a big step up as well, and his walks and strikeouts have almost reached parity this year. That’s the product of him swinging at fewer bad pitches while swinging at more good ones; it’s not easy to move those numbers significantly in opposite directions. And while he doesn’t have much defensive value, he’s nowhere near Todd Hundley awful in the outfield when you want to rest another player at DH. I also suspect that the value of first basemen and designated hitters should have a bit of a bump with the universal DH, now that there are 15 more prime spots for offense-first players with minimal defensive ability.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: Eight years, $174 million

Vladito is making nearly $8 million this year and not in a family hurting for financial resources, so he has a reasonable risk profile to try to wait out free agency and grab a monster deal then. But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays shouldn’t at least try; it will be a shame if his stay in Toronto is already half over.

While Guerrero’s offensive numbers have come back down since last year’s Triple Crown run, the disappearance of run scoring around the league makes the drop look far more significant than it actually is. In rest-of-career value, ZiPS has him fourth in baseball among hitters, and none of the top three are gettable.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox: Five years, $75 million

There are three starting pitchers the White Sox should be thinking about long-term: Cease, Lucas Giolito, and Michael Kopech. Giolito will be a free agent after next season, so he may not have much incentive to skip testing the market. Kopech’s injury history and boom-or-bust type abilities make evaluating him very tricky. Cease is the one the Sox should be giving the full-court press in contract talks. His FIP this year is a sterling 2.16, and he’s found those extra strikeouts that ZiPS thought he might have in him. Did I mention that he’s lopped four mph off last year’s opposition exit velocity? If his changeup ever truly clicks consistently, he could be frightening.

Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners: Six years, $103 million

Remember when some people were actually worried about him? Seattle’s patience with Jarred Kelenic hasn’t yet paid off, but the team’s aggression in putting Rodríguez on the roster appears to be a bonanza. The first week or so was rough, but since that first multi-hit game, he’s been one of the hottest players in baseball, hitting .330/.385/.466 over 24 games. Not bad for a guy who has played all of six weeks of Double-A ball.

I would have felt this way even before the season. Rodríguez is one of a handful of 22-and-unders to receive a three-WAR projection in ZiPS, a list that consists entirely of stars and Gregory Polanco. I’m pretty confident in J-Rod, and if Seattle can’t ink him to a deal, he’s likely to get more expensive very quickly.

Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds: Six years, $49 million

Let’s be excessively charitable to the Reds for a minute and take them at their word that it’s not about money and that they just want to rebuild from within (hold the laughter for a sec). If they want people to believe that, they ought to put their cash where their mouths are and sign one or both of their best, very young players (Stephenson and Jonathan India). Cincinnati has intentionally lost a lot of valuable players over the last six months or so, and with Joey Votto in the twilight of his career, this team ought to be interested in not being looked at as “the Pittsburgh Pirates, but with awful chili.” Stephenson has crushed the ball this year, his defense is just fine behind the plate, and he’s been one of the team’s few bright spots in a year in which an eight-inning no-hit game that was a loss isn’t even the lowlight.

Andrés Giménez, Cleveland Guardians: Six years, $55 million

Only two players in baseball with at least 90 plate appearances have had a bigger bump in exit velocity than Giménez: Jean Segura and Gleyber Torres. Giménez hasn’t turned into a 40-homer hitter or anything, but he’s hitting everything with more authority than in the past, and at age 23, that kind of improvement would not be shocking if it were maintained. He’s become a line drive machine, which plays well in an environment where fly balls are suddenly dying, and he acquits himself well at prime defensive positions. Cleveland has a long history of signing pre-arbitration players to long deals, and Giménez should join other recent signings: Emmanuel Clase and Myles Straw.

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays: Seven years, $70 million

I wrote about McClanahan and his improved changeup last week, and his seven-inning shutout of the woeful Tigers unsurprisingly isn’t changing my view of him as a pitcher. The Rays like signing their players early and often, even if they don’t finish their deals in Tampa, and I’d like to see Sugar Shane be the next recipient. The team is also increasingly confident about keeping him in the game; he’s on pace to face the most third-time-through-the-order batters for an under-30 Ray since Blake Snell in 2018. I think ZiPS might even be underrating him a bit.