Win-Now Phillies Charge Ahead With $300 Million Deal for Trea Turner
After overcoming a slow start and firing manager Joe Girardi, the Phillies made it all the way to the World Series for the first time since 2009. On Monday, they took a significant step toward improving their chances of returning, and of upgrading their oft-shaky defense, signing shortstop Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million deal, one that includes a full no-trade clause.
Turner, who turned 29 on June 30, spent the past season and a half with the Dodgers after coming over from the Nationals in the 2021 trade deadline blockbuster that also brought Max Scherzer to Los Angeles. In 2022, he earned All-Star honors for the second time, batting .298/.343/.466 (128 wRC+) with 21 homers, 27 steals (in 30 attempts), and 6.3 WAR. He played 160 games and led the NL in plate appearances (708) and at-bats (652) and ranked fourth in steals.
While Turner’s offensive performance represented a dip from his 2021, when he won the NL batting title (.328/.375/.536, 142 wRC+), led the league in steals (32), and ranked third in WAR (6.8), he was still an impressive ninth in the last of those categories in ’22. Bolstered by average defense at shortstop — no small accomplishment or attraction for a team that has employed Didi Gregorius in the recent past — he was third in WAR among shortstops behind Francisco Lindor (6.8) and fellow free agent Dansby Swanson (6.4), but his longer track record for strong production than Swanson, and the added dimension of his speed, had to make him the more attractive of the two for a long-term deal. Toward that end, it’s worth noting that Turner placed second on our Top 50 Free Agents list below only Aaron Judge, one spot ahead of Carlos Correa, four ahead of Xander Bogaerts, and six ahead of Swanson.
The size of Turner’s contract outdid both our median crowdsource estimate (seven years, $210 million) and that of listmaker Ben Clemens (nine years, $288 million), a common theme from among the early deals so far. That should’t surprise us within an industry that appears to have set a record in revenues (just shy of $11 billion) and that just got a $900 million windfall ($30 million per team) from MLB selling its remaining 15% stake in the BAMTech streaming platform to Disney.
Via Cot’s Contracts, Turner’s contract is tied for the ninth-largest in major league history in terms of total value, and it makes the Phillies the first team to sign two free agents to deals worth at least $300 million, with Bryce Harper the other one:
| Rk | Player | Team | Total | Yrs | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | Angels | $427 M | 12 | 2019-30 |
| 2 | Mookie Betts | Dodgers | $365 M | 12 | 2021-32 |
| 3 | Francisco Lindor | Mets | $341 M | 10 | 2022-31 |
| 4 | Fernando Tatis | Padres | $340 M | 14 | 2021-34 |
| 5 | Bryce Harper | Phillies | $330 M | 13 | 2019-31 |
| 6T | Giancarlo Stanton | Marlins | $325 M | 13 | 2015-27 |
| Corey Seager | Rangers | $325 M | 10 | 2022-31 | |
| 8 | Gerrit Cole | Yankees | $324 M | 9 | 2020-28 |
| 9T | Manny Machado | Padres | $300 M | 10 | 2019-28 |
| Trea Turner | Phillies | $300 M | 11 | 2023-33 |
The Phillies are the third team with two $300 million players on their roster, with the Yankees (who traded for Stanton) and the Padres (who signed Fernando Tatis Jr. to an extension) the others.
At the same time, the length of the deal, which covers Turner’s ages 30–40 seasons, dilutes its impact from an average annual value standpoint. Its $27.27 million AAV ranks just 27th, according to Cot’s, edging out those of Betts and Freddie Freeman (both $27.0 million before deferred payments are factored in). Via USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Turner’s deal pays him the flat $27.27 million all the way through and contains no deferrals.
That lower AAV gives a bit of extra maneuverability for a team whose $246.4 million payroll (including player benefits) exceeded the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2022 ($233 million) and figures to land somewhere past that point without going over the second one ($253 million). Via Roster Resource, Philadelphia is at $217.7 million (again including benefits) and likely needs another starting pitcher after the free-agent departures of Kyle Gibson (who just signed with the Orioles), Zach Eflin (who signed with the Rays) and Noah Syndergaard, plus an outfielder/DH to help cover for Harper’s absence during the first half of the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, plus bullpen help, like every other contender.
Via Dan Szymborski, here’s a look at Turner’s ZiPS projection over the course of the deal:
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | .301 | .353 | .493 | 598 | 101 | 180 | 35 | 4 | 24 | 88 | 46 | 117 | 26 | 129 | 4 | 6.1 |
| 2024 | .296 | .349 | .478 | 577 | 96 | 171 | 33 | 3 | 22 | 82 | 45 | 113 | 22 | 124 | 3 | 5.4 |
| 2025 | .289 | .343 | .463 | 553 | 89 | 160 | 30 | 3 | 20 | 76 | 43 | 109 | 18 | 118 | 2 | 4.6 |
| 2026 | .282 | .337 | .447 | 524 | 82 | 148 | 28 | 2 | 18 | 68 | 41 | 104 | 15 | 112 | 1 | 3.8 |
| 2027 | .273 | .328 | .424 | 490 | 73 | 134 | 25 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 38 | 98 | 12 | 104 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 2028 | .269 | .324 | .416 | 449 | 65 | 121 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 35 | 92 | 10 | 101 | -1 | 2.4 |
| 2029 | .268 | .323 | .409 | 403 | 57 | 108 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 31 | 84 | 8 | 99 | -1 | 1.9 |
| 2030 | .260 | .313 | .388 | 358 | 49 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 27 | 75 | 6 | 91 | -2 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | .261 | .314 | .389 | 357 | 48 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 27 | 76 | 5 | 91 | -3 | 1.1 |
| 2032 | .256 | .308 | .377 | 305 | 39 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 22 | 66 | 4 | 87 | -4 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | .255 | .307 | .369 | 255 | 31 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 18 | 56 | 3 | 84 | -4 | 0.3 |
If you’re scoring at home, that looks more or less like three years of star-level play, four more years of above-average play, and four that fall somewhere along the spectrum between rough sledding and the cost of doing business. By the end of the contract, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will be 77 years old, making the back portion of Turner’s deal quite explicitly Someone Else’s Problem — not an uncommon theme during Dombrowski’s past stints in Detroit and Boston. Via Szymborski, ZiPS suggests a $262 million deal over those 11 years, so again, we’re seeing some bigger-than-expected spending.
As for the current roster, Turner should provide a major upgrade on the 82 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR the Phillies received from Gregorius, Bryson Stott, and others at shortstop in 2022. Gregorius is long gone, but Stott, a 2019 first-round pick who entered last season at no. 36 on our Top 100 Prospects list, should be able to slide over to second base to replace free agent Jean Segura, with Edmundo Sosa as a potential platoon partner. The 25-year-old Stott hit just .234/.295/.358 in 466 PA, but he did club 10 homers and steal 12 bases, and he projects to improve upon that dismal slash line (.253/.321/.405 for 2023 via Steamer). Small sample though they are, the defensive metrics show that he did better in 47 games at the keystone than 83 games at short.
In short, this is an aggressive and impressive move by the Phillies as they push to challenge the Braves and Mets — no slouches themselves in that race, having signed Justin Verlander earlier on Monday — for NL East supremacy. It’s also worth noting that in signing Turner, Philadelphia dealt a blow to the Dodgers, who if they’re going to spend big to replace him have a less comfortable fit with Correa (particularly given his role on the 2017 Astros, already a concern), the other shortstop from the group that appears on their radar. Like every contract of this size, there’s particular risk at the back end, but this is exactly the caliber of move you’d expect from a team in win-now mode.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Not much to say here. Phillies want to upgrade at SS. Turner is one of the best. He and Bryce Harper are presumably buddies. He’s getting paid value. Everything makes sense.
I mean, the Phillies’ infield looked like a huge disaster and they have a ton of money. We knew they were signing one of Turner, Correa, or Bogaerts.
I kind of half expect them to go after Bogaerts anyway. Dombrowski gonna do his thing.
If they get Bogaerts at third and shift Bohm over to first, they can trade Rhys Hoskins for a bullpen upgrade or something. Honestly sounds like a good idea to me.
I sort of take this back. Dombrowski is out there now throwing cold water on this idea and while I think it’s not a great idea to take front office statements at their word, he’s not especially known for misdirection. I think it’s probably more likely they bring back Segura or sign Brandon Drury at this point or something.
I think it’s most likely they do neither. The org is very high on Stott as a long-term piece, and still bullish on Bohm. Add in Sosa (whom DD acquired), Nick Maton, and Dalton Guthrie and you have a lot of decent-looking IF making league minimum. That’s what makes huge money to the stars easier.
The real need now is a #3/4 starter, and a couple bullpen pieces.
lol $72M for Taijuan Walker what
DD doesn’t mess around
Eleven Years? I thought that was a typo when I first saw it. I guess the Phils understand that they will be writing off some of those last couple years and considering it the cost of doing business. Or they expect inflation to continue high so that $27 million will not be nearly as big of a hit on ledgers down the road as it is today?
Probably both.
Going by the listed projections they’re buying 30WAR.
Front loaded performance, back loaded payout. Basically deferred money if you consider they’ll be paying with depreciated dollars.
It he produces only 30 fWAR over 11 years that should be a real disappointment.
He’s at 31 career WAR now at age 29, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect his 30s to be significantly better than his 20s.
It’s really more of a question if he can get to 20 WAR in the next 5 years. I think we all understand that a 35 year old Trea Turner is probably not going to pretty
That is what the projections say, not me.
For an 11 year contract for the back end of a long career.
60WAR is hardly a bad career for a SS.
60 WAR is a borderline HOFer, Phillies would be ecstatic if he puts up 30 wins.
They’re betting $300M he at least comes close.
30 war over 11 years would be great.
Don’t forget that it might contain 1 or 2 0 war years in the end and also 2 or 3 1,5-2 war years before that, so if you get 30 you will get several 5s which would be great.
30 war after age 30 is quite elite. There are exceptions like adrian beltre who had 30 war since age 30 but that is rare
Lol how many SS have ever produced >=30 WAR in their 30’s? Fangraphs has 10 guys in history, 8 of them are in the hall of fame. That’s a really high bar to set.
Hey if inflation remains stubbornly high then by 2032 they will be paying him about $3.50 in 2022 dollars!
$27 million has already become not that big of a hit just over the past few years. Turner isnt even one the the 15 highest paid players? (just a guess off the top of my head).
I mean, 35+ year old pitchers are getting $40 million AAV contracts now. In 11 years it Turners deal will probably be peanuts.
“ particularly given his role on the 2017 Astros, already a concern”
I really do find it hard to believe that there are that many Dodgers fans who would rage quit the team if they signed Correa.
Course, these days I suppose silliness should be the presumption and rationality only a hope.
rationality is blasphemy
Fans can be flexible.
Especially if the choice is Correa or Lux, Gregorious, or a trade.
“Jerks are okay as long as they’re *our* jerks.”
I am increasingly thinking they are going to wind up with Swanson or Bogaerts simply because they don’t want to give out a 10 year deal, which seems likely for Correa after this one.
There is nothing rational about fandom. See fanatic:
A person filled with excessive and single-minded zeal.
There is nothing rational about spending lots of time, emotional energy and money supporting a specific group of baseball men over other similar groups of baseball men.
Fandom != rationality.
That having been said, the “rationality” does kick in when you realize that guy is going to make the group of baseball men you irrationally support better than the group of baseball men you irrationally dislike.
Okay, I am once again going to ask if we can put to bed the idea that teams will be reluctant to spend (long term) this offseason? Can we? I think we can? Will someone confirm?
i 2nd
I don’t know where this idea came from but it does appear to be wrong! The quality of the free agents seems to drive the spending and not much of anything else.
define quality
Finely dressed, richly textured, a pleasing odor and sumptuous flavor.
Turner does have richly textured hair.
(Cannot speak to his odor or lack thereof)
And market size/location… small market teams AND Central teams (hit worse economically) are not spending.
I certainly appear wrong at this point. And I am surprised.
At a minimum, my hypothesis is shifting.
Trea Turner is the free agent bat that, as a Mets fan, I least wanted to see in the NL East and especially in Philly. Even moreso than Judge.
The Phills already have their long ball needs covered; they needed OBP and up the middle defense. (Plus back end pitching). They’re well on the way.
Eleven years with a no-trade? Jesus Christ.
Jesus Christ only signed for eight years with the Bethlehem Bashers and his no-trade was limited to eight teams if I recall (Luke 21:17-19)
His WAR after his age 33 season fell off dramatically, though I heard he did well in other leagues
“An ability to see through the eye of a needle,” one rival executive suggested when describing Christ’s strike zone judgment.
A league of his own, even.
I mean, I guess this is A} the cost of doing business, and B} Dombro being Dombro, but it’s not like Turner’s a generational talent. He’s a really fast guy that can hit a little and field a little. When the wheels come off the Phils are going to regret the weight of that millstone.
Being a fan of a mid to small market team, and even knowing it was going to happen. Still feel that MLB doesn’t care about solving it’s real problem affecting attendance. And TV ratings. The shift ban might help some, same with pitch clock. But none of these will move the needle all that much.
The real problem? Basically a two class system between the rich teams and the poor teams. Yes, I know “rich” is relative and no owner can cry poverty. But let’s be realistic the big market teams have such a huge advantage, it’s not really the same sport.
Just another sad day in the dying sport of MLB baseball
just another day in the very much alive pastime of bellyaching.
I mean you’re not wrong but something about this seems off putting anyway. Baseball isn’t going to die, at least not in the near term.
Look at the World Series TV ratings over the last 20 years. From 2002-2011 the World Series averaged roughly 18.7 million viewers. Want to take a guess at 2012-2022? 14.5 million viewers. I excluded 2020 due to pandemic reasons. A 20% drop in viewership seems pretty concerning.
Sure, but payroll disparity isn’t why. Pace of game, the TTO approach, constant labor arguments, crappy player marketing, a lack of diversity, and stupid fun-killing “unwritten rules” are all way more significant factors.
In fact, in the time period you listed, there were way LESS parity-enforcement measures than there are today. It was way more common for teams like the Yankees to absolutely blow everyone else out of the water on payroll to make superteams then, and that SOLD. And there’s a reason you see so many people taking extra interest in the Mets and Do.dgers when they go way beyond the accepted norms for payroll
You want baseball to grow, I don’t think adding more rules to make every team mediocre, or suppress salaries to drive even more talented athletes away from the game, is gonna help
A lack of diversity? In Major League Baseball? No idea where you are going with this, but both African-American and Hispanic populations are over represented among the player population compared to the overall US population.
African-Americans in MLB are roughly half of their US pop %. (7 v13). Hispanic, of course, is a broad term. Lots of Dominicans, Venezuelans and Cubans in MLB but that really isn’t directly representative of the US Latino population.
It’s more fair to say we have country diversity with players from the ones listed above, Canada, Australia, Mexico Japan and Korea.
US players are by and large White Americans, so we DO have a lack of US diversity. The good news is that the African- American population in MILB is expanding and that may turn the trend soon.
It depends on how you count afro-latinos, particularly the dominicans.
Maybe not in the clubhouse, but in the stands, it’s certainly an issue.
2002-2011 was before streaming services (etc.) completely fractured the media market. It not just baseball; almost no one is getting the ratings that they got in the beforetimes. In many ways baseball’s meds revenue explosion reflects the fact that live sports are king of the “eyeballs in real time” market and that, with a 162 game season, baseball provides more such programming than any other major sport.
And MLB was one of the leaders, shockingly, in this regard. MLB.tv was a breakthrough and shifted the landscape for sports viewing pretty drastically. During the 2000’s, there was a significant number of people moving around the country to take jobs in other parts of the country, and if you were a baseball fan doing so, MLB.tv became a necessity (to the extent that watching baseball at all is a necessity). I moved from NY to WI in 2003, and signed up for MLB.tv as soon as it became available.
The fact that MLB’s streaming tech got bought up by Disney should tell you all you need to know in that regard. I often have complaints about UX things with the app and it occasionally has weird issues, but it has been a massive boon for keeping fans engaged even after they leave their “hometown”.
More so if you live outside the blackout zones.
MLB.TV expanded the reach of the sport outside the reach of the team’s territories.
And as Manfred stated today, they are well aware of the rise of cable cutters. Odds are they’ll be eliminating or adjusting the blackout zones to reach still more viewers.
From 2002 to 2011 there were 13 different teams in the world series.
From 2012 – 2022 there were 14.
I don’t think the issue is parity.
The game would be better if it contracted and got rid of 10 teams whose owners won’t spend and whose ‘fans’ won’t support a team that isn’t in first place every year.
Since when has this problem not been a problem? Trace baseball history into dead ball era and rich versus poor teams was a problem then. Nothing new.
There are no poor teams. Only cheap owners.
the real problem is velocity and the fact that every team has 5 anonymous RPs who throw 98 with movement, for two years, then their arm dies and someone else slides in
The best possible signing with relatively low AAV is great move. Now just need to sign Taillon or Bassitt
As a Dodgers fan, I’m not going to pretend this doesn’t suck. I get that Friedman et al. really value financial flexibility and, aside from Betts and Freeman, seem allergic to these long term deals, but I still held out hope they’d make it work for an elite guy that seemed to like being here. Alas, congrats Philly fans, and congrats to Trea.
Well, now that we know he rejected a $342M offer from San Diego, I think we can pretty safely assume it would’ve taken at least that much from the Dodgers to convince him to sign in LA instead of Philly. I like Trea a lot and agree with your point that the Dodgers can and should spend their money on locking up elite talent long-term. But with two of those deals already on the books I understand their reluctance to go that high for Trea here.
Also, the Dodgers are the early favorite to sign Ohtani next offseason, so…
The beginning of this deal is gonna be awesome and the end is gonna suck. If those ZiPs projections are right the middle is gonna be pretty mediocre.
That’s not to say it’s the wrong move, since Turner’s hit tool might make him age more gracefully than this projection, and the money is spread out over so many years it makes the hit in any single year more palatable. Also, flags fly forever. But hoo boy is $300M a lot of money for a guy in his 30s whose standout trait is his speed. Phillies fans better hope he gets workout tips from Rickey Henderson.
Not sure this ends horribly for the Phillies. Turner’s hit tool has always been solid, so even as his speed continues its decline from elite levels he could still be a top tier offensive player for some time. It’s a little like how CC Sabathia’s command tool was strong enough to let him succeed after he lost a lot of velocity.
He had the highest % of infield hits in baseball in 2022 based on his speed. Not sure his hit tool will age as gracefully as you think once he starts losing a step.
I think there’s a world where he winds up as a league-average hitter and league average shortstop defensively, which is clearly in the Erick Aybar zone. That’s easily a 3+ win player, maybe 4+. If he has to shift to 2B to be league average, that’s still an everyday player by pretty much all accounts.
Here’s the key to understanding where this contract works or doesn’t for the Phillies: ZiPs sees the average defense, average hit world happening in 2027 and 2028 (the reason he’s less than 3 wins there is because of projected injuries, not because of quality when he plays). That’s when he’s 34 and 35. There’s some precedent for this in the middle infield; Ian Kinsler did it. So did Brandon Phillips, Jimmy Rollins, and Marco Scutaro, Jamey Carroll, Craig Counsell, and Mark Grudzielanek (He’s not in the same hit tool class as Derek Jeter or Chase Utley, so I’m not even bothering with them). But between 37 and 40, the pool of players who even got to 350 PAs is so small he’s probably toast. The list of players is basically Jeff Kent (who has way more power), Ben Zobrist (who has a way better hit tool), Derek Jeter (see above), Omar Vizquel (way better defender), and Jamey Carroll / Craig Counsell again.
So either (1) Turner keeps his speed like Rickey or Kenny Lofton, (2) his Jamey Carroll / Craig Counsell phase lasts longer than expected. In both cases he has to stay healthy. It’s possible, and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if it happens. It’s just not probable.
Interesting zips has him at 4 DRS in 2023 since he was -1 in 2022 and hasn’t had a 4 DRS since 2019. UZR/150 was -1.2 in 2022. OAA was 0. He is already below average defensively in my opinion. Having watched a lot of the games, my eye test agrees.
I guess the point I was making is that his speed props up his BA and OBP a decent amount and once that starts going he is going to decline severely. He swings and chases a lot and benefits from when he mishits the ball by turning it into an infield hit.
However, I understand he is literally the fastest player in the game and probably has a long way to go before his speed is no longer an asset.
27 M AAV isn’t going to be terrible in 7 or 8 years tho
You could have said
“$24M AAV isn’t going to be terrible in 7 or 8 years”
about Cano 9 years ago and that would not have aged particularly well.
You’re forgetting 9% inflating is devaluing the dollar.
Current projections expect high inflation to continue for at least 5 years and settling around 5% afterwards.
Try compounding that.
>Current projections expect high inflation to continue for at least 5 years and settling around 5% afterwards.
[citation needed]
10-year breakeven inflation rate suggested by the prices of inflation adjusted and regular US government bonds is at 2.4%.
Even 1-year expected inflation is at 3.2% by the Fed.
It depends on a lot of things but I think the most likely scenario is that the last 3 or 4 years of the contract he is toast, so unless the economics of baseball are unrecognizable in 7 years it’ll still be bad. But It’s basically deferred money. When you think about it that way, and how much surplus value they will get at the beginning there’s a decent chance it will work out okay. I mean if the Phillies win a championship in 2024 and Turner is a key part of that no one in 2030 is going to curse this deal. Of course if he turns into a pumpkin in 2024, which certainly could happen, then even the ZiPS projection will look much too optimistic.
Phew, thought they’d prefer Swanson
Should be a fun team to watch. They were so bad at defense that he’s an upgrade, and I like the LHH depth in Stott and Maton to give them flexibility (Stott may also be an impact defender at 2B? He was better there in 2022)
So my understanding is that the Dodgers, Twins, and Giants are all in on Bogaerts, Correa, and Swanson. Potentially the Cubs. Red Sox and Braves are sort of keeping tabs on their free agents but their market doesn’t look like it’s gonna collapse. I’d guess Swanson has a much better chance of returning to the Braves than Bogaerts does to the Red Sox but it’s probably less than 50/50. I think that’s pretty much everyone unless the Yankees lose Judge or Dombrowski still has more money to spend on the infield?
Cardinals are in it too.
Swanson seems to their first choice to free up talent to trade for a catcher.
And the DBacks are said to want Bogarts.
That’s 8 teams (at least) for 3 players.
(Rumors have suggested SD might go for Bogarts instead of a 1B or OF .)
Based on supply and demand, Braves, Cards, and Twins are unlikely to get Correa or Bogarts who are now looking at Turner money. (Boras!) They both strike me as California bound.
Swanson looks likely headed for Cards, Cubs, or SD(!) at a lot more than expected this morning.
Red Sox have the money but apparently not the desire.
Teams with tradeable SS will get some business by wednesday. I can see a three way or even four way…
Shaping up like a vintage hot stove.
Agreed on all counts, I’m excited to see how this plays out. The spiciest outcome obviously involves Correa to LA
I like it. Sure the rebuild in a couple years will be painful and long like the early to mid 2010s one was but they have some good players and now there is no way back.
The rebuild didn’t go as well as expected because the phillies drafted and developed so badly, especially on the hitting side so their depth isn’t great but they still have a good core of players despite the defensive flaws they have.
At least turner should be an upgrade on defense for a couple years on top of helping offensively.
With Realmuto, Turner, Stott and Marsh the Phillies actually might be above league average defensively up the middle. It’s not Ruiz, Rollins, Utley, and Victorino but it ain’t bad.
“upgrading their oft-shaky defense”
I’m not sure he’s going to do a ton to upgrade their defense. He’s pretty average to below average and will probably continue to get worse as he loses range.
This is the Phillies we are talking about here
Good point. I wasn’t familiar with their shortstop situation.
I have seen 15-year-old fat cats with more range than late model Didi Gregorius. He’s an upgrade.
The difference between Steamer (4.6 WAR) and ZIPS (6.1 WAR) for 2023 is staggering. By Steamer, this looks like a disaster, by ZIPS, it’s maybe on the high side but right in line with what we’re seeing this offseason.
I’m more on ZiPS’ side here. Turner has shown zero signs of aging so far especially in the speed department, so I’m inclined to think he’ll age better than most players whose best skill is speed.