The first UZR updates of the 2010 season are in, and from here on out they’ll be updated every Sunday night.

There have been a few improvements made to UZR this year, which will also be reflected in prior year’s UZR data. The changes do impact a few players, but for the most part, each player’s UZR has remained unchanged or is within a couple runs of what a player was rated before the improvements. Mitchel Lichtman, the man behind UZR, outlines the changes below:

Park factors have been improved, especially for “quirky parks and portions of parks,” such as LF and CF at Fenway, LF in Houston, RF in the Metrodome, and the entire OF in Coors Field. Of course, park factors in general are updated every year, as we get more data in each park, and as new parks come into existence and old parks make material (to fielding) changes.

In the forthcoming UZR splits section, we will also be presenting UZR home and road splits, as a sanity check for those of you who are skeptical of park factors. Please keep in mind that regardless of the quality of the park adjustments, there can and will be substantial random fluctuations in the difference between home and away UZRs and it is best to evaluate a fielder based on as much data as possible (e.g., using home and road stats combined), as we do with most metrics and statistics.

Adjustments have been added to account for the power of the batter as a proxy for outfielder positioning, so that, for example, if an outfielder happened to have “faced” a disproportionate percentage of batters with less than or more than average power, the UZR calculations will make the appropriate adjustments (as best as it can). Obviously, these kinds of adjustments are more important for smaller samples of data than for larger samples, since, in larger samples, these kinds of anomalies (in terms of opponents faced) tend to “even out.”

For infielders, similar adjustments are made for the speed of the batter, as a proxy for infielder positioning and how quickly the infielders have to field and release the ball, as well as the speed of the throw.

When a “shift” is on in the infield, according to the BIS stringers, if the play was affected by the shift, the UZR engine ignores the play. As well, if an air ball hits the outfield wall and in the judgment of the BIS stringers, no outfielder could have caught the ball, the play is similarly ignored.

Also keep in mind that UZR does not include first basemen “scoops” or the ability of the first baseman to influence hits and errors caused by errant throws from the other infielders. According to my (MGL) research, yearly “scoops” numbers are generally in the 1-4 run range, which means that the true talent range of most first basemen with respect to “scoops” is probably in the plus or minus 2 runs per year range – i.e., not much.

This is not the timeliest of posts, so apologies to those who come here for more 2010-related discussion.

In 1999, Baseball America ranked Bruce Chen as the number four prospect in baseball. Chen was a 21-year-old southpaw pitcher for the Atlanta Braves. He stood only six-foot-one and was signed out of Panama in 1993 as a teenager. Chen had a history of injuries and his top tools were deception and brains. Take that combination in the latter 1990s and the first comparison out of people’s mouths was, of course, Greg Maddux. Now, I don’t want to spoil anything here, but … well, Chen did not become Greg Maddux part deux.

Chen did find a way to rack up nearly 900 Major League innings over his career. His 4.71 ERA is obviously below what many would have pegged for him, but it is a nice representation of his pitching career than his 5.22 FIP. The odd thing about Chen is not that he was a velocity-starved left-handed pitcher. Nor that he was compared to Maddux based on smarts. Heck, not even that he failed to live up to expectations. But, that he was traded within the division. Not once. Not twice. Not thrice. But four times. Within four seasons.

Remember, Chen was the number four prospect in all of baseball entering the 1999 season. He appeared in 16 games for the Braves that season and had a 5.47 ERA. The next season, Chen pitched in 39 innings for the Braves – all in relief – and held a 2.50 ERA (4.34 FIP). The Braves traded him and Jimmy Osting to the Philadelphia Phillies for Andy Ashby. Chen went on to make 15 starts for the Phillies with a 3.63 ERA (4.26 FIP). This looked like a long-term win for the Phillies, right?

Well, in 2001, he made 16 starts with the Phils and despite strikingly good peripherals (8.24 K/9, 3.23 BB/9) Chen posted a 5 ERA (5.19 FIP thanks to allowing two homers per nine) and the Phillies did the sensible thing: They traded him to the New York Mets with a minor leaguer for Dennis Cook and Turk Wendell. He would work out of the rotation for the Mets and do okay – a 4.68 ERA and 5.06 FIP – again because of issues with the long ball.

Now comes 2002 and Chen appears in one game for the Mets, recording two outs. On April 5th, they trade him to the Montreal Expos in a deal that involves Scott Strickland heading to the Big Apple. Chen wouldn’t last long there either, he would appear in 15 games with the Expos, post an excellent strikeout rate, but also hold a 21.4% HR/FB ratio and 6.99 ERA and find himself dealt to the Cincinnati Reds on Flag Day.

I think only Rob Neyer holds enough knowledge to be able to answer this, but has another player in the history of baseball as highly touted as Bruce Chen been tossed around a division so often and fast? Clearly Chen had some flaws, no doubt, but here are the number four ranked prospects in baseball over the last few years:

2010 – Jesus Montero
2009 – Tommy Hanson
2008 – Clay Buchholz
2007 – Phil Hughes
2006 – Jeremy Hermida
2005 – Ian Stewart

Obviously comparing prospect list quality across years is tricky but stay with me. Can anyone imagine the Red Sox trading Clay Buchholz to the Orioles for Kevin Millwood. And then in a season the Orioles trading Buchholz to the Blue Jays for Jason Frasor. And then a season later, the Jays trading Buchholz to the Rays for Lance Cormier. Would never happen. But it did.

Episode Twenty-One
In which the panel turns their respective guns around.

Headlines
Brett Anderson? More Like Best Anderson.
Houston: Bad or Superbad?
Colby Lewis: America’s Sweetheart.
… and other busted moves!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Full-Time Enemy

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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There is nothing like the pop of a catcher’s mitt and a flashing triple-digit sign on the stadium radar gun to excite a crowd. But, as well all know, it’s not always about velocity.

There are a couple of interesting prospects in the minors off to fast starts to the 2010 season. Nither pitcher will light up the radar gun. And neither pitcher is a can’t-miss No. 1 or 2 starter, but both hurlers are interesting players to keep an eye on because of the extreme ground-ball tendencies that they’ve exhibited in their careers (however brief they may be).

The furthest away from the Majors is Joe Gardner, a pitcher in low-A with the Cleveland Indians organization. The right-hander was a third round draft pick out of UC Santa Barbara in 2009. If the early returns are any indication, the organization may have gotten a real steal with the 22 year old.

Gardner did not throw his first pro pitch until 2010 and he struck out 11 batters in 4.0 innings during his debut. All but one out came via the K, and that one other out was a ground ball. In his second start five days later, Gardner struck out “just” seven batters while allowing two hits in 5.0 innings. He also induced eight ground ball outs and did not record a fly ball out (for the second straight game). Last night, the streak ended as Gardner finally gave up a fly ball out (but just one). In five innings, he allowed two hits again and struck out another eight batters. He recorded six more ground-ball outs.

Gardner has recorded 42 outs in total this year: 17 ground-ball outs (40% of his outs) and 26 strikeouts (62%), It’s early but methinks low-A might be a little too low for this pitcher. (*That totals 102% thanks to an error on a ground ball, which was then negated by a GB double-play).

The second pitcher has much more experience than Gardner. Luis Perez, a southpaw in the Toronto Blue Jays system, is beginning his second straight year with double-A – although to no fault of his own. Perez had a respectable season in ’09 and lost his spot due to a roster crunch at the triple-A level, which saw six or seven triple-A vets make the squad.

Perez’ ’09 season included a 4.18 FIP and a ground-ball rate just shy of 57%. His strikeout rate did drop below 7.0 K% for the first time in his career. The lefty has not been missing as many bats as Gardner this season (11 Ks in 17.0 innings) but he’s allowed just two hits total in three starts. Double-A hitters have a .039 batting average against Perez. He’s allowed eight fly-ball outs this season and 26 ground-ball outs, good for 51% of his outs.

Perez’ ceiling is probably that of a No. 4 starter or long reliever. He’s especially effective against lefties, having held them to a career .189 average and 69% ground-ball rate, so he can always fall back into a LOOGY role.

The first pitch Tim Lincecum ever threw in the major leagues was reported to be 99 MPH on the Giants stadium gun (we don’t have Pitch F/x data for that performance, unfortunately). He then proceeded to hit 100 three times in his first big league inning, showing the velocity that had gotten him drafted in the first round, even as scouts were concerned with his command, delivery, and workload. In that first year, Lincecum’s fastball averaged 94.2 MPH, the seventh hardest fastball in the game, and he threw it 67 percent of the time.

Other than the hair, Lincecum barely resembles the pitcher he was just three years ago.

You don’t need a best fit line to see the trend in that image. His velocity has been steadily falling since he arrived in the big leagues, and through his first three starts this year, his fastball is averaging just 91.7 MPH. He has thrown 312 pitches this year, and only three of them have topped 95. He now throws about as hard as Matt Harrison and Clayton Richard. But, this is the crazy thing – it hasn’t mattered at all.

While Lincecum’s lost his top end fastball, he’s shown zero effects from it. In 20 innings this year, he has a 2.20 xFIP, and he’s still blowing hitters away with nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s worked in his slider more often and increased his change-up usage, so he now throws nearly as many off-speed pitches as he does fastballs. In just three years, Lincecum has gone from a flame throwing ace to a junkballer whose best asset his the command of his secondary stuff.

It’s a pretty remarkable transformation. The pitcher he is now is almost the exact opposite of the guy he was in college. If you watched Lincecum in college, where he posted a career 5.7 BB/9, and projected that he’d become more Greg Maddux than Nolan Ryan, you’d have been laughed out of the room. But that’s essentially what has happened.

Usually, when we point to reduced velocity, there are injury concerns or performance declines, but there’s really nothing like that with Lincecum. He’s still one of the best pitchers in the game – he’s just doing it in a dramatically different way.

I have been a little slow updating things on the draft front this spring, so today I want to talk about a few things that have become certainties in this 2010 Amateur Draft. (Also, for more great stuff, let me point you to the leaders in this coverage: SB Nation recently absorbed Andy Seiler’s great MLB Bonus Baby site, Keith Law and Jason Churchill always kill it at ESPN, and nobody does it better than my boys at Baseball America).

1. Bryce Harper is the best player available. The early billing Harper received — I first read about him in August, 2008 in an article entitled “Remember This Name” by Rich Lederer — was met with some inevitable backlash this fall, as many scouts thought Harper might be over his head in a wood bat junior college league. The feelings that the hyperbole had grown out of control were incorrect, as we may have been selling Harper’s talent short. He’s already broken the single-season home run record for the league, and has continued to show the 450-foot home runs and 95 mph fastball that created his legend. No scouts question his status as the draft’s top prospect any longer, and bonus demands are the only thing that could keep him from going 1-1.

2. After Harper, we will see a lot of pitchers drafted. It sounds like Drew Pomeranz is slowly positioning himself as the most likely #2 choice to the Pittsburgh Pirates, as 90 strikeouts and a 1.38 ERA in 58.2 innings is a definitive showing. On the high school side, Texas right-hander Jameson Taillon has begun to further himself from other prep pitchers. But while those might be the top dogs, this class has every kind of pitcher short of a prep lefty. I think we will see 20 in the first 30 picks, as the lack of real hitting prospects outweighs any belief in TINSTAPP.

3. If you think patience can be taught, Gary Brown could be really good. Always cited as one of college baseball’s most exciting and talented players, Gary Brown’s resume at Cal State Fullerton before the season left a bit to be desired. This year, he’s hitting .448, and his blazing speed is on display, with 8 triples, 22 steals, and reportedly plus defense in center. The problem? He has just five walks in 158 plate appearances. His plate coverage is fantastic, as the 5 walks are contrasted by only 9 strikeouts, but his OBP is too BABIP reliant. A team will take a chance given the foot and bad speed, but Brown still has a ways to come.

4. For the first time since 2001, a reliever will not be chosen in the first round. This is an often criticized strategy, but the sheer depth of upside among starting pitchers should push relievers back a bit. There are solid relievers, like Georgia Tech RHP Kevin Jacob, James Madison RHP Kevin Munson or UCLA RHP Dan Klein, but none have the upside of a guy like Georgia RHP Justin Grimm. I don’t believe this will be the start of a long-term trend away from college relievers, it’s just the circumstance that demands it.

5. Jedd Gyorko and Kolbrin Vitek are fun names to say. These two guys are really interesting, and I remain fascinated by their ever-changing draft status. In addition to sharing interesting names, they are also two sluggers from non-traditional Division I schools (West Virginia and Ball State, respectively) that profile at second base and just hit the hell out of the baseball. Combined, the guys are hitting .378/.465/.719 this season, and have just have not given scouts a chance to dig into them. Given the lack of viable hitting prospects, I really think they should be getting late-to-supplemental first round consideration. I just can’t wait to hear Bud Selig pronounce their names.

After the jump, a brief scouting report that I wrote up almost three weeks ago, but never had time to turn into a full article. It’s from April 2, when I watched Ohio State RHP Alex Wimmers pitch against Northwestern.
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With the game tied at two in the bottom of the tenth, Giants manager Bruce Bochy’s greatest concern was likely Adrian Gonzalez, the man in the on-deck circle at the beginning of the inning. He probably hadn’t even considered the possibility that the game would be over before he even reached the plate.

David Eckstein cared not for improbability on Monday night, as he homered down the left field line off Jeremy Affeldt to win the game for the Padres. It was Eckstein’s first home run of the year and only his 10th since 2006, when he was a member of the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals.

Eckstein never really had power, but his ability to hit home runs has disappeared since 2005, a season in which he hit 8 home runs and put up a career high .102 ISO. Since then, he’s averaged a home run every 199 plate appearances. A move to PETCO park, where last night’s home run occurred, certainly hasn’t helped the power-starved Eckstein, who saw his HR/FB% fall to a career low 1.3% last season as a Padre.

Not only that, but Jeremy Affeldt is an extreme ground ball pitcher, with a career 48.9% GB rate and a ridiculous 65.0% GB rate to 18.5% FB rate last season, and his GB rate has been above 50% since 2007. Over the last three years, Affeldt has allowed a 26.2% FB rate, and Eckstein has a 29.7% FB rate. Given the league average FB rate of 36.7%, using the crude estimation Expected = (Offense + Defense – Average) – used in The Book – we would expect Affeldt vs. Eckstein matchups to end in a fly ball only 19.2% of the time. Then, given Eckstein’s 1.9% HR/FB over that time frame, we would expect this matchup to end in a home run only .003648% of the time, or roughly 36 out of every 10000 times. With PETCO Park’s .86 HR park factor, that falls to 31 out of every 10000 times.

Of course, you already knew that Eckstein’s home run was unlikely. Still, I think events like these are fascinating. Personally, I think one of the most remarkable things about major league hitters is that even those that we consider not to have any power, such as Eckstein, are capable, on any given pitch, of hitting the ball out of the ballpark. Eckstein just happened to hit his in a clutch situation against remarkable odds.

Prior to yesterday’s games, the Pittsburgh Pirates were the only team in the Majors without a starter who had thrown 100 pitches in a game. Naturally, Paul Maholm replied to my tweet with this nugget by throwing 100 pitches exactly. The Pirates have had four starters removed before topping 80 pitches, which is second in futility only to the Washington Nationals. Here are the Pirates’ six starters this year and their notable numbers:

Brian Burres – 1 GS, 4 IP, 5.03 FIP
Zach Duke – 3 GS, 19 IP, 4.13 FIP
Paul Maholm – 3 GS, 17.2 IP, 4.27 FIP
Daniel McCutchen – 2 GS, 7.1 IP, 9.98 FIP
Charlie Morton – 2 GS, 9.1 IP, 7.31 FIP
Ross Ohlendorf – 1 GS, 5 IP, 7.03 FIP

(Yes, I know the samples are small. The FIP is there just to illustrate how awful some oe the performances have been.)

Generally speaking, when it’s April and Burres is getting starts for you, something has gone wrong. Horribly, horribly wrong. That wrongness is Ohlendorf being hurt. Ohlendorf is more interesting for his off the field accomplishments than his on the field pitching. The real gem of intrigue in the Pirates’ rotation right now is Morton.

Morton was the power arm acquired by the Pirates in the Nate McLouth deal. He has something spectacular growing on his chin in the form of a beard. Check his gamelogs so far:

4/9 @ ARI: 3.1 IP, 1 HR, 6 SO, 1 BB, 4 FB, 2 GB, 8 LD
4/14 @ SF: 6 IP, 3 HR, 3 SO, 0 BB, 7 FB, 10 GB, 4 LD

That Arizona start is incredible to me. He gave up eight earned runs despite posting a 6/1 K/BB ratio and only allowing one home run. I guess there’s no bias in those eight line drives, because, jeez. I actually used the Baseball-Reference Play Index to find comparable starts since 1980. As it turns out, Morton shares some, um, really good company. No, really.

In 1998 Randy Johnson struck out 12 batters while allowing eight earned runs (giving up three homers undoubtedly played into that). Ryan Dempster, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Nolan Ryan, and Floyd Youmans gave up boats of runs while striking out 10 apiece. Kerry Wood, Roger Clemens, Johnson twice, Sidney Ponson, Kevin Gross, and Mike Norris K’d nine through rough starts. And the list goes on. Josh Beckett, Kenny Rogers, John Smoltz, Mark Langston … they all got battered around while fanning at least eight.

Of course there are some stinkers on this list too. But right now, Morton’s name resides next to A.J. Burnett, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, and Roy Oswalt. That’s not too shabby. Now, before someone takes this the wrong way, I’m not saying good pitchers get hit around super duper hard while striking batters out. It does happen sometimes. But, I’m not saying this is some harbinger to Morton winning the Cy Young. It’s just not a death knell by any means.

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I hope that FanGraphs readers don’t need lecturing on sample size, so I won’t. Scouts might be able to pick up on something a player is doing differently in the first two weeks, but I don’t have that kind of insight myself. Let’s check out the starts of three outfielders with big contracts (one isn’t quite as big, although it was arguably almost as bad an idea as the other two) who, to say the least, haven’t justified their paychecks, but two of whom are hitting surprisingly well in 2010, and a third who is not.

I’ll be using ZiPS in-season projections to look at how ZiPS projected the player’s offense before the season, how ZiPS projects the player’s offense the rest of the season (“RoS” on the player pages), i.e., the current estimate of the player’s “true talent” in context, and what that means for the player’s final 2010 offense value (ZiPS “Update”).

Your current All-Albatross Outfield:

Center Field: Vernon Wells
Contract: $126 million 2008-2014, $12.5 million in 2010 (Cot’s)
Current 2010 wOBA: .507
ZiPS 2010 Preseason Projection: .328
ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS): .342
ZiPS Update: .359

As horrible as Wells’ contract undoubtedly is now, it wasn’t as crazy at the time as people thought. Wells has been insanely hot (.340/.436/.787, .507 wOBA) from the very first game. Before the season, ZiPS saw him as about a league-average hitter (.328 wOBA), which wouldn’t be bad from a center fielder if he a) could field the position, b) wasn’t being paid $12.5 million, c) wasn’t in his 30s, and c) wasn’t signed through 2014 with a full no-trade clause. ZiPS is pretty impressed by the first two weeks, though, projecting a .342 wOBA for the rest of the season finishing at .359. If Wells finishes as ZiPS envisions (+15 runs offensively), he would actually be worth about what he’s being paid this season… assuming he can play average defense. This is still an albatross, of course, particularly given the Jays’ situation, but it’s a nice change in projection after only two weeks.

Right Field: Jose Guillen.
Contract: $36 million 2008-2010, $12 million in 2010 (Cot’s)
Current 2010 wOBA: .491
ZiPS 2010 Preseason Projection: .333
ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS): .344
ZiPS Update:.361

Some may feel that Guillen doesn’t belong on this list, given that he’s the Royals primary DH, but he insists he can still play the outfield, and was only bad in 2009 because of life-threatening blood clots in his legs. One might wonder why the blood clots also went untreated in 2006, 2007, and 2008, when he played terrible defense, or in 2006 and 2008 when he didn’t hit, but whatever the situation is, Guillen is definitely smoking the ball now (.367/.404/.755), and people have remarked that his bat looks quicker. Before the season, ZiPS (much more optimistic on Guillen than CHONE or the Fans) saw Guillen as a slightly above-average hitter, which would make him a slightly above-replacement level DH. If he finishes the season at about +13 offensively (as ZiPS projects), that’s about a 1.5 WAR DH, exceeding my wildest dreams for Guillen 2010. I’ll be glad to admit I was wrong if that happens. It’s still a disaster contract for the Royals that should never have been signed, and a 1.5 WAR season doesn’t even justify his 2010 salary, but hey, maybe the Royals will be able to offload a small portion of his remaining contract and/or get a C- prospect back, which seemed inconceivable two weeks ago. Trust the Process.

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano
Contract: $136 million, 2007-2014, $18 million in 2010 (Cot’s)
Current 2010 wOBA: .322
ZiPS 2010 Preseason Projection: .357
ZiPS Rest-of-Season (RoS): .357
ZiPS Update: .354

I’ll do a longer write-up on the Soriano contract soon. For now: it was a terrible decision at the time that somehow turned out worse. Like Wells and Guillen, Soriano was absolutely dreadful in 2009, although the other two didn’t have the benefit of having Milton Bradley as a scapegoat/distraction. ZiPS saw Soriano as the best hitter of the three going into 2010, and although he’s off to a less-than-inspiring start, still does see him as that for the rest of the season. But even if he finishes with a .354 wOBA for the season, he’ll still merely be around an average player making $18 million a season… until 2014.

Projections admit of uncertainty. I don’t know all the ins-and-outs of ZiPS (created by Dan Szymborski), but this does give a perspective on what a small hot streak may or may not mean. Even in the optimistic cases, these contracts remain albatrosses.

With yesterday’s cut of first baseman Mike Jacobs in New York, Mets followers are eagerly anticipating word that top hitting prospect Ike Davis is on his way to the Majors. It’s certainly not a huge leap to expect the former first round draft pick to be a better offensive contributor than bench warmer Fernando Tatis, the currently-injured Daniel Murphy, or Jacobs.

Davis has hit well this year in triple-A, albeit in a small sample size of 33 at-bats. (The quick trigger suggests that Mets management is feeling some heat to win… quickly). Davis has an overall line of .364/.500/.636 and is showing a good eye with nine walks to five strikeouts.

The former Arizona State two-way player had a slow start to his career, which included a well-publicized 215-at-bat debut without a homer. Well, questions about Davis’ power have all but been answered. The left-handed hitter slugged 20 homers last year and posted a .256 ISO rate in half a season at double-A.

He also showed patience last year by posting a walk rate of more than 11%, but the strikeouts could be an issue, especially early on in his MLB career. Davis had a 26% strikeout rate last season. It remains to be seen how well Davis will hit for average; it’s risen with each promotion but so has his BABIP, which was up to .381 in double-A. Given his lack of foot speed, Davis is unlikely to maintain that high rate as a result, which will ultimately be felt in the batting average. His struggles against southpaws could also be an issue (OPS of .672 vs southpaws in ’09, 1.000 vs right-handers) unless a platoon situation – which would make a lot of sense – is utilized, at least early on in his career.

Defensively, Davis should be an upgrade. As a former two-way player he has a strong arm, which is why he also spent time in the outfield in college (where his lack of speed hurt him).

It’s pretty clear that promoting Davis is pretty much a no-lose situation for the Mets at this point… aside from service time, which is irrelevant for a team serious about contending in 2010. He has the potential to be a Rookie of the Year candidate in the National League, which is great for PR… something the organization could use.