Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Cleveland | 18:10 ET
Ventura (22.0 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (13.0 IP, 61 xFIP-)
This game receives a higher score than Pirates-Cubs by mere decimal points according to the author’s very proprietary and useless methodology. That Yordano Ventura has been removed from each of his last two starts, however, likely adds a layer of intrigue to this contest which widens that gap. Or if not a layer of intrigue, then a shroud of it. And if not a shroud, then perhaps a mantle. And if not a mantle, then a cloak. What one learns more than anything is that, to describe the appeal of this game, some manner of loose-fitting cloth garment is necessary. What else what one learns is that Ventura and Danny Salazar have produced the fourth-highest and absolute highest average fastball velocities, respectively, among all 145 pitchers to have thrown 10 innings as a starter.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

BABIP is a really hard thing to predict for pitchers. There have been plenty of attempts, sure, but nothing all that conclusive — probably because pitchers have a negligible amount of control over it. So naturally, when I found something that I thought might be able to model and estimate pitcher BABIP to a high degree of accuracy, I was very excited.

My original idea was to figure out the BABIP — as well as other batted ball stats — of individual pitches from details about the pitch itself. Velocity, movement, sequencing, and a multitude of other factors that are within the pitcher’s control play into the likelihood that a pitch will fall for a hit (even if to a very small degree). But much more than all of those, pitch location seems to be the most important factor (as well as one of the easiest to measure).

I got impressively meaningful results by plotting BABIP, GB%, FB%, wOBA on batted balls, and other stats based on horizontal and vertical location of the pitch. So I came up with models to find the probability that any batted ball would fall for a hit with the only inputs being the horizontal and vertical location (the models worked very well). I even gave different pitch types different models, since there were differences between, for example, fastballs and breaking balls. I found the “expected” BABIP of each of each pitcher’s pitches, and then I found the average of all of those expected BABIPs — theoretically, this should be the BABIP that the pitcher should have allowed.

Read the rest of this entry »

A pitcher throwing a no-hitter typically receives the silent treatment once the late innings roll around. His teammates begin giving him a wide berth, leaving him alone with his thoughts. No one wants to be the guy who ruined a no-hitter by doing or saying the wrong thing, which includes invading a pitcher’s solitude.

What do pitchers think of the superstitious convention? Do they like being avoided between innings, or would they prefer everything to be as normal as possible? I asked several pitchers, some of whom have thrown a no-hitter. Here are their responses:

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: “In the sixth inning of mine, I was sitting in the dugout by myself. No one talked to me. I was here for Jon Lester’s and it was the same thing. When Josh Beckett threw his, he was walking around talking to guys. He treated his a little differently, but for the most part, everybody leaves you alone. But it wouldn’t bother me if someone talked to me.”

R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays: “It’s part of tradition. You see the pitcher sitting at the end of the bench. When Johan (Santana) threw his, I was in a different spot every time, starting in the sixth inning. Everyone wants to feel they had a part in it, psychologically. That’s what every superstition is. You put the right sock on before the left and feel that’s part of what helps you succeed. It’s a bunch of gibberish, of course.”

Dennis Eckersley, Red Sox broadcaster: “Guys did (avoid me), but every game I sort of had my own place to sit. But having a no-no, everybody knows that. Later in the game, they didn’t come near me. I was so young then – I was 22 years old – and looking back, I didn’t know the difference.”

Doug Fister, Nationals: “I don’t like to have things changing. I want everything to be normal. Even if it’s one of my teammates – I don’t want them to start acting weird or do anything out of the ordinary. Just do the same thing you would if I’ve given up three hits or 10 hits. I want everything to be consistent.”

Kevin Gausman, Orioles: “It’s kind of an unspoken rule. You try to not be the reason – you don’t want the pitcher to say, ‘He never talks to me, but he came and talked to me and that’s why I gave up a hit.’ But honestly, most guys don’t talk to the pitcher on the days he pitches anyway. Some guys are really social on the days they pitch, but I usually only talk to a couple of guys.”

Ubaldo Jimenez, Orioles: “I’d rather things were just normal. That way you don’t have to think about how you’re doing something different. I would like to be normal, talking to the guys and pretending everything is the same. When I threw mine, some people (avoided me) but I talked to a couple of the guys. They came to me and I came to them.”

Daniel Norris, Blue Jays: “The other day, Hutch (Drew Hutchison) had five or six no-hit innings and we were just trying to keep it on the low. That’s around the time you start noticing. We were kind of staying normal, but we definitely knew what was going on.”

Henry Owens, Red Sox prospect: “I refrain from saying anything if someone else has one going. Ask Brian Johnson about my first start this year. He said something right before I gave up a hit (in the sixth inning). But as far as superstitions go, I don’t really believe in them. Everyone was saying, ‘Brian, apologize,’ but I told him I didn’t care.”

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals: “It’s just something they’ve been doing over the years, and it doesn’t affect me either way. Some pitchers don’t want to be bothered, but I’d rather keep it the same as if I was giving up three, four, or five hits. I don’t like sitting there by myself and not having anyone to talk to. You realize a no-hitter is going on whether there are people talking to you or not.”

This seems to be this season’s week to weigh in on the designated-hitter debate. It’s a debate people will have over and over again, making the same points, until baseball changes the way things operate, and even then for a little longer still. What sparked the latest discussion, of course, was Adam Wainwright’s season-ending injury, which wouldn’t have happened as a hitter if he didn’t have to hit. To many, it was just unnecessary, especially given how dangerous it is to just pitch, and so on we go, into a most familiar back-and-forth.

I don’t think I have a position. That won’t surprise some of you. I’m obviously a fan of a version of baseball that has different rules for different leagues. If the rules were made to be the same, I imagine I’d remain a fan of the result. I think my true position is that, while I’d understand if the National League were given a DH, I’d miss the pitcher-hitting statistics. It’s just one of the things that I’m into, because pitcher hitting is like a rulebook-mandated experiment. The numbers are silly, and I spend more of my time thinking about baseball than I do watching baseball. It’s more fun to think about a version of baseball where sometimes, pitchers have to hit for themselves, even though they all suck.

And speaking of all of them sucking — boy, do they ever. You’ve long known this to be true, with rare exception. But you might not have noticed what’s gone on for this season’s first month. Things are getting worse.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Four years ago, in these same electronic pages, the present author published a ranking of all 30 clubs’ center-field broadcast camera angles. The immediate purpose: to create a reference for anyone with access to MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings, or some other manner of game video, so that he or she might be better equipped to choose the ideal feed. Last year, I provided an updated edition of that original post.

What follows is the product of an almost identical exercise — updated to account for whatever changes (if any) have occurred within the last calendar year.

In general, cameras have been assessed according to the ability with which they document the pitcher-batter encounter. More specifically, I’ve utilized three guiding criteria, as follow:

• Shot Angle
  In which more central and lower is generally preferred.
• Shot Size
  In which closer up and not longer is generally preferred.
• Whim
  In which the author’s own intuition has been utilized.

In what follows, I’ve embedded screencaps for all 30 of the league’s center-field cameras, broken down into three categories: Top Ten, Bottom Five, and The Rest. In every case, I’ve used images featuring only right-handed pitchers at the peak of their leg kick — so that the orientation of that pitcher’s body might least distort the perception of the camera angle. Furthermore, I’ve attempted to identify weekday feeds from the home club’s regional broadcast — as opposed to weekend and/or national broadcasts, which sometimes utilize a different feed or graphics. In that same spirit, I’ve also attempted to find representative moments that feature the relevant broadcasts typical score bug and strike-zone plot (if the latter exists).

The reader will note that straight-on shots constitute the most highly ranked of the center-field cameras. This makes sense, of course: straight-on shots portray lefties and righties in the same way and document pitch movement in a way that off-set cameras can’t. The reader will also note that a small collection of notes and observations appears at the very bottom of this post.

Finally, if the reader finds that I’ve erred in any of the screen captures here, don’t hesitate to make note of same below.

Top Ten
1. Pittsburgh Pirates

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s reflect on the FanGraphs staff predictions, shall we? Seems like a great idea for the 28th of April. Every single voter selected the Nationals to win the National League East. Okay, great start. Taijuan Walker got the most votes for the American League Rookie of the Year, and his ERA’s almost 7. Daniel Norris also got some meaningful support. Devon Travis got half as many votes as Norris did. So the best you could say is that Travis at least got his name picked by a few people. I bring this up because, as silly as it is to be thinking about awards in the season’s first month, right now Travis ranks third in baseball in wRC+. Perhaps more shocking, Travis ranks fourth in baseball in isolated power. The Blue Jays decided to start Travis out of the gate even though he never spent a day at the highest level of the minors. All he’s done is out-hit the scorching-hot Nelson Cruz.

And this is a Toronto second baseman we’re talking about. Certainly, it’s not like the position is cursed. There’ve been good second basemen in Toronto before, and there’ll be good second basemen in Toronto again, after the Travis days are over. But the Blue Jays are the reason you even recognize the name Ryan Goins. Devon Travis isn’t Ryan Goins. It’s not quite clear what Devon Travis is, but one answer seems to be “surprisingly powerful.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Oakland starter Jesse Hahn is throwing the changeup more than ever before. In some ways, it’s new. In other ways, though, this was the changeup he’s always had. This isn’t just semantics or word play, though.

Let’s make the case that Hahn’s changeup is new, first, and see what that might mean for Hahn.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re almost done with April, which means we’re closer than we were before to being able to stop with the standard “it’s early” caveat we heartily employ during this time of year. For better or for worse, however, it’s still early. The good news (besides the obvious fact of it being April and baseball is being played) is that most starting pitchers have made enough starts to provide us with some sample of data to comb through for patterns and changes compared to last year. There’s still a lot of noise in that data, but there’s some signal, and we’re going to see what we can get out of a fun data set today.

It’s interesting news when a pitcher starts throwing a new pitch effectively, mostly because it happens pretty rarely. What’s also interesting news is when a pitcher starts throwing a pitch he already had in his arsenal more often, especially when he does so to an extreme level. With that in mind, let’s look at a table of starting pitchers, sorted by the percentage of sliders that they’ve thrown so far in 2015:
Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »