Comment From Jeff Gross
With Bryant/Russell graduated to the majors, where would the Cubs farm system rank now? Have the performance of enough guys like Vogelbach and Schwarber ticked up/maintained more grades overall than have disappointed (e.g., Johnson) to keep the Cubs in the top 5 overall?
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Kiley McDaniel: More on this in the coming weeks
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Comment From Peezus
How high are you on Tyler Glasnow and when do you see him coming up?
There’s something about the calendar flipping from April to May that makes it seem like the baseball season is somehow better realized, with the small samples and fluctuations of the opening frame left behind in favor of more stability. The cold days in the Midwest are less numerous; we now know the teams with a capacity to surprise, and the ones that never really had a shot. That sense of May stability is an artifact of our human desire to demarcate, to divide, and to end and begin things: the real truth is that every day is merely a day before and after another, moving relentlessly toward a finality — a month, a season, a career.
Our monthly divisions are a veil draped over the game to provide meaning where there may be none. Still, knowing the futility of our plight, we’re going to press on with that propensity for order and use the end of April to look back at changes between last month and last season in relation to one subset of data: movement of pitches. I’ll be looking at who had the biggest change in movement for their offerings between last year and this year, and perhaps we can glean some data related to whiff rate, batted ball breakdown, or other peripheral statistics that suit our fancy.
Finally, a reminder: more movement doesn’t always mean better results. It does make for entertaining data and visualizations, however. Today, we’ll go over fastballs, so we won’t have the gaudy swing and miss stuff that we’ll have tomorrow, when we’ll look at breaking balls and offspeed pitches. All stats are farmed from Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboards. Today we’ll divide fastballs by four-seam and two-seam, as well as starters and relievers. As a baseline, I used a 500 pitch minimum for starters in 2014, and a 100 pitch minimum for relievers.
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
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Most Highly Rated Game Tampa Bay at Boston | 19:10 ET Smyly (10.2 IP, 53 xFIP-) vs. Porcello (32.0 IP, 101 xFIP-)
In his first start of his season, on April 24th, Tampa Bay left-hander Drew Smyly struck out roughly 28% of the opposing batters he faced — or about eight points more than league average. In his second and also only other start, he struck out roughly 46% of the batters he faced — which is to say, many more points greater than league average. One might be inclined to say that “at this rate” Smyly should be expected to strike out 64% of Boston’s hitters today (Tuesday). One might be inclined to say that, but one is inclined to make any number of poor decisions. Like playing bridge with anyone over seventy. Or like wearing brown shoes with black pants.
The modern baseball statistical analysis revolution has largely been about one thing; weeding out the noise, and getting to the root of a player’s true talent. DIPS theory, which posited that the only things that pitchers truly should be held accountable for were strikeouts, walks and homers allowed, represented a major step forward, and brought terms like BABIP and FIP into the game’s lexicon. What those new metrics assumed, however, was that all other batted balls were more or less created equal. Now, with the advent of StatCast, we all know, publicly, that is not the case. Read the rest of this entry »
Lineup protection may or may not exist. Studies suggest it doesn’t, at least not statistically, but many within the game insist it does. In their view, the pitches a batter sees are influenced by the batter on deck. Almost all agree that situations play a role, but beyond that, just how much effect is there? The question was posed to six pitchers, four hitters, and two managers (both of whom are former catchers). Here are their responses:
Madison Bumgarner, Giants pitcher: “I should look over at the on-deck circle a lot of time, but my pride gets the better of me. I can’t remember a time that I looked over there and was actually smart about the situation. It should be that way. It’s a hard thing to do. You don’t want to give in, I don’t want to give in.”
Kevin Cash, Rays manager: “A lot of those questions have been asked about Longo (Evan Longoria). You have the guy who protects, you have the guy who gets the benefit of having protection, and then you have the really good hitter who does both. We factor in protection, but it’s not just having that one guy in front of him, or behind him. That’s not the driving force when making a lineup.” Read the rest of this entry »
Episode 559
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he answers questions about the future of fired managers like Ron Roenicke, about quality-of-contact classifications, and about what looms for the Chicago White Sox.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
Let’s watch a little MLB Gameday, you and I. I’ll select Saturday’s matchup between the Rays and the Orioles. Below, you’re going to see all four of Manny Machado’s plate appearances. Note that I could’ve selected Sunday’s game instead and demonstrated the same thing, but on Saturday, Machado faced more pitches. Four simple .gifs:
It takes a lot of muscle to square up a big fastball. In the case of George Springer, it might also take some relaxation.
Heading into the series that had the Astros in town, I asked hitting consultant and FanGraphs author Dan Farnsworth about a few of the Astros hitters as part of my research process. About Springer, Farnsworth said “I like his swing a lot, perhaps except for the excessive effort he has sometimes.” I didn’t get to talk to Springer, but I did talk to his hitting coach Dave Hudgens, and that word came up again.
Apparently, though, excessive effort is not a problem in batting practice. Take a look at the swings he took that day in batting practice, and they do look free and easy.
In game, it’s tough to get the same side view. But here in this package of highlights about Springer’s five-RBI night against the Padres, you might see some more effort.
And then there’s the problem that most videos are highlight videos, when the player is acting optimally. But here’s a side-view of a Springer at-bat in minor league camp, and in a swing before the home run, you can see what might be called effort issues. (And another, here, from the majors, with some slow mo.)
Of course, we’re talking bout batting practice, which is a two-fold problem.
For one, hitters are often working on parts of their swing that aren’t their best features. Farnsworth pointed out that Ian Kinsler’s batting practices are full of squibbers to first base, and then come game time, Kinsler is hitting frozen ropes to left field, his pull field. Despite the fact that scouts take a lot of knowledge away from batting practice, you wouldn’t want to assume Kinsler was a light-hitting opposite-field guy after watching him in BP.
It’s not just a spring-training blip anymore. For one or two games, you can dismiss a pitcher working with reduced velocity. Sometimes mechanics can be slightly off. Sometimes a pitcher can just be under the weather. Jered Weaver’s gone beyond that. His velocity was way down in spring training, and it’s carried over into each of his regular-season starts. Weaver is down a full three ticks, and that’s a dramatic decline between years. Unsurprisingly, he’s been bad — he’s struck out just one of every 10 hitters. One season ago, his rate was twice as high.
Between years, for starting pitchers, the biggest fastball velocity drop belongs to Derek Holland, and he’s on the disabled list. The second-biggest drop belongs to Henderson Alvarez, and he’s on the disabled list. The fourth-biggest drop belongs to Homer Bailey, and he’s on the disabled list. Weaver owns the third-biggest drop, and he says he feels fine. Which means there’s either something wrong that doesn’t hurt, or this is just what he is. This isn’t what he wants to be.
