Archive for September, 2015

Effectively Wild Episode 735: Podcast Court is in Session

Ben and Sam banter about Mike Trout’s punctuation, then answer listener emails about the fastest fastball, pennant-race anxiety, Rich Hil, shortstop studs, and a fantasy-league dilemma.


FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/29/15

5:41
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! We’re one week closer to the postseason! That excites me greatly. Come chat with me (and possibly Jeff) at 9 pm ET and you’ll see just how excited! Well, in theory. We’re hosting a playdate in a little while, so I may be exhausted by the time 9 rolls around. And then I might say something foolish. So, really, it’s a win-win for you!

See you soon!

9:02
Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this. Jeff might pop in later, but for now you’re stuck with me.

9:02
Comment From Nolan
Is the Shin Soo Choo deal going to be one of those contracts where our perceptions are poisoned by the first year of the deal? Choo has been well worth his salary this year, and the rest of the contract looks much better than it did after the 2014 season. It seems like this could be similar to the Werth or Soriano deals, insofar as it ends up being much better for the team than the first year would suggest.

9:04
Paul Swydan: You know, I want to choo-choo-choose him. But I think it’ll still look like an albatross. The bottom line is that you need the first three years to be very good values to balance the scales. That last year was a disaster makes it really difficult for it to be a good contract in the long run.

9:04
Comment From Noah
Is it just me or did an article just disappear from FanGraphs? I was just reading an article about the difference between the projections being flat out wrong (the Mets) and the projections not anticipating sequencing (the Twins). Now it’s gone! What happened?

9:05
Paul Swydan: Every once in awhile, we slip and accidentally publish an article that is either not finished yet or scheduled for the next day. Entirely possible that that just happened.

Read the rest of this entry »


A First for Brian Dozier’s Career

A few weekends ago, I wrote myself a note, reading “Jose Bautista — oppo.” I watched Bautista hit a home run to right field in Yankee Stadium, and I figured that might be the sort of thing worthy of a post. Bautista generally clobbers his dingers to left, and I thought maybe there could be something there. I thought also that maybe, just maybe, Bautista had a history of going out to right field in New York, which has maybe the most forgiving right field in baseball. Ultimately, I didn’t do anything. I mean, I eventually did some research and played with some numbers, but I didn’t have enough for a post. Not a post that anyone would care about.

Stupid me — I was watching the wrong player. Genius me — I at least had a decent general idea. Rare opposite-field home runs? Potentially interesting. And while I didn’t get enough of interest on Bautista, it wasn’t much later that Brian Dozier pulled off a career first. I have to apologize for the lack of timeliness; this is a post about an event from last Wednesday. I don’t know why I didn’t notice sooner. But last Wednesday, facing Corey Kluber of all people, Brian Dozier stepped in and, in a 2-and-1 count, hit a home run down the right-field line.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Cubs Have a #3 Starter

The way Jake Arrieta has thrown the ball this year — especially in the second half — has ended any discussion about who the Cubs #1 starter is. Arrieta has propelled himself into the discussion of true aces, and he’ll be the guy the Cubs put on the hill with their season on the line next Wednesday. With Jon Lester slotting in to the #2 spot, the Cubs top two starters should be able to hold their own against any other staff in baseball.

After that, though, things get a little more interesting. When asked who his third starter in the postseason might be, Joe Maddon stated simply “I don’t know.” Jason Hammel began the year as the team’s third starter, and his overall numbers are quite good for a middle-of-the-rotation guy, but those numbers are based on an excellent first half and a pretty lousy second half. Prior to the All-Star break, opposing hitters posted just a .261 wOBA against Hammel, but since the break, they’ve put up a .371 mark against him. The problems may be tied to a hamstring injury that landed him on the DL in July, and unless he really shows them something in the last week of the season, it’s not clear that the Cubs can trust that he’s healthy enough to be effective in high-leverage postseason innings.

Read the rest of this entry »


The AL Cy Young Discussion

Last week, I addressed the Cy Young battle in the senior circuit and titled it “The NL Cy Young Showdown.” This time, it’s the AL’s turn — and “discussion” (as opposed to “showdown”) seems to be the proper way to characterize it. It’s been a low-key pitching season, comparatively, in the AL, with no one posting an ERA near Zack Greinke‘s, or pitching no-hitters or engaging in zany second-half shenanigans like Jake Arrieta. In fact, a general consensus seems to be building that the award is David Price’s to lose. Today, let’s have a full discussion, including utilization of batted-ball data, about the AL Cy Young and its three likely frontrunners, Price, Chris Sale and Dallas Keuchel.

Price, who turned 30 in late August, is the only one of the three with a Cy (2012) on his mantle, though he hasn’t finished above sixth in the annual voting since then. Sale has come progressively closer in the voting, checking in at sixth, fifth and third in the last three seasons, while this will be the first time on a ballot for Keuchel, 2015’s foremost pitching breakthrough.

Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/29/15

11:57

Kiley McDaniel: Giving you guys a minute to get some questions in before I start my yapping

12:05
Comment From Some Guy
What are you hearing about the teenage Cuban defector “Lazarito” that’s currently training in Haiti?

12:06

Kiley McDaniel: Fitting to start with one of the two buzziest topics among scouts right now. The hype on this kid is already pretty heavy and many heavy hitters haven’t really seen him before. I was going to write something about him this week, but it wouldn’t have too much hard info, so I figured it may be better for the chat.

12:12

Kiley McDaniel: So he’s a 16 year old Cuban named Lazaro Armenteros that defected. He’s about to start open workouts and I’ve talked to some scouts that saw him in int’l tourneys and one guy that saw him working out for smaller groups of scouts in the Caribbean recently.

He’s a built 6’2/205 with some projection, 65-70 speed, at least plus raw power and at least a plus arm, with the grades varying a bit on each of those grades given the incomplete looks and an age where things are still improving, but the lowest I’m hearing so far on those tools is 60. It’s a CF/RF fit, though he’s played some 1B/3B. You can see why Yasiel Puig is a common name mentioned as a similar player.

He’s more physically developed that almost all the recent big July 2 names you’d ask me to compare him to and the guys I talked to said he isn’t a tools goof with no feel, he’s actually got some instincts.

You can try to triangulate this and you end up in the Yoan Moncada type territory ($31.5M bonus from BOS that came with $31.5M penalty and two-year sanctions on signings over $300K) pretty quickly. Hard to say for sure if it’ll be above or below that, but everyone I’ve talked to said it will be huge money.

Way too early to know a team to project, but I’ve said many times that all the top Cubans this period will be tied to the Dodgers by default since they have limitless amounts of money and are going over during this period…which was a direct result of passing on Moncada late last period to instead go over for more than just one player. There’s a number of other Cubans that would be $5M+ types and would be pool-eligible once they get cleared to sign…so the Dodgers may finally find their financial limits in this market, but not without getting plenty of talent first.

12:16
Comment From Blaine
Wanted to thank you for the top notch content. You do a great job! I was just wondering what upside do you see in Blake Rutherford? How far is he from. Superstar draft prospect, 60 FV? And as a Braves fan, I see the Phils going with an arm at 1, do you think the Braves are in on Rutherford?

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: And now to the other topic getting buzz in scouting circles right now. I’m in the final stages of wrapping up my calls/emails on the draft list and there’s been some shuffling from the off-the-cuff names I’ve been mentioning recently in chats/twitter.

Rutherford has slipped a few spots but is still in the top tier of players, which is probably 6-7 names. He’s the oldest of the top prep prospects and is a tweener defensively without much physical projection. So, while the now ability is really good, he still projects and a top 10 pick, and he may have looked the best over the summer of this group, you can see why some scouts may downgrade him a bit when projecting into the future.

Read the rest of this entry »


Gerrit Cole Is Now the Most Important Pirate

Gerrit Cole might not be the best player on the Pittsburgh Pirates — Andrew McCutchen probably still holds that distinction — but over the course of the next 10 days, perhaps no pitcher in the National League, or perhaps in Major League Baseball, will have a greater impact on his team’s season. Cole has slid under the radar of the Cy Young race as Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Zack Greinke are all having historically good seasons. While Cole is a bit behind that NL pitching triumvirate, his 2.60 FIP is third in MLB behind only Kershaw and Arrieta. His nearly identical 2.61 ERA is sixth, behind the above three, as well as Dallas Keuchel and David Price. Cole has already pitched some important games down the stretch this season, but how he pitches in the near future could frame how many people view the Pirates’ season as they head to the playoffs for the third straight year.

Cole has pitched very well as the regular season comes to a close. Over his last four starts, he has faced only playoff teams in the Chicago Cubs (twice), the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Pirates have won all four of Cole’s starts, during which time he’s recorded a 32:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowed just one home run over 27.1 innings, good for a 2.30 ERA and 1.94 FIP. The starts against division rival were of particular importance. One September 6, the Pirates trailed the Cardinals by 6.5 games. A loss at that time would have put the team 7.5 games back, making their shot at a divisional comeback almost impossible. The win also kept the Pirates three games ahead of the Cubs. His next start, against those same Cubs, lengthened the lead for home-field advantage to five games and briefly put them within two games of the Cardinals.

Cole just recently turned 25 years old, and in his age-24 season, he has been one of the best in recent history at his age. Among qualified pitchers 24 and under, Cole’s 5.5 WAR is the best such figure, a full two wins better than Carlos Martinez’s mark. Since 2010, the only pitchers 24 and under with a season exceeding Cole’s current 5.5 fWAR are Clayton Kershaw (twice), Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez.

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Texas | 20:05 ET
Norris (53.1 IP, 113 xFIP-) vs. Hamels (197.1 IP, 86 xFIP-)
With the loss on Monday by Texas — plus the wins by Houston and Los Angeles — the latter two clubs trail the Rangers by only 1.5 and 2.0 games, respectively, now and all three clubs still possess at least a 15% probability of claiming the division despite the fact that the season is a mere six games from completion. It’s unlikely, the entire scenario — although not so unlikely that one is compelled to announce, while throwing his hands in the air, “You couldn’t make this stuff up!” Gabriel García Márquez, for example, could’ve probably made this stuff up pretty easily were he still alive. Also, so could probably most little brothers, given an afternoon to really explore the space.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »


JABO: What’s Wrong With Jacoby Ellsbury?

When the New York Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153 million contract before the 2014 season, the team was certainly hoping for a version of the 2011 center fielder: a speedy, defensively-sound player with serious power upside. A prevalent thought was the short porch in Yankee Stadium’s right field might help him regain some of his power after injury-marred seasons in 2012 and 2013.

Following a healthy 2014 — in which the left-hander was able to post a respectable power/speed combination while staying relatively healthy — the 2015 season has seen Ellsbury take a step back. In recent weeks, during the thick of a September pennant race, he’s actually sat against left-handed pitching in favor of Chris Young. These are the depths of the slump that Ellsbury is currently in, and it’s obviously not the return on investment the Yankees had in mind when signing him to a long-term deal.

With New York headed toward a very probable Wild Card berth, it’s time to take a close look at Ellsbury. What are the driving factors behind his current struggles? What is the outlook for the Yankees without his production?

We assign many beginning and end dates to baseball statistics, which is a part of our natural desire to organize things we’re trying to understand. We’re going to do that now, because it’s necessary for us to understand Ellsbury’s season before and after a certain event. The Yankees’ center fielder has had two very different halves  — separated by seven weeks on the disabled list with a knee injury — and understanding how they’re different is the first step we’ll take in evaluating his performance.

During the first six weeks of the season, Ellsbury was putting up great leadoff numbers: Although the power stroke wasn’t quite there — he hit only one home run along with a .047 Isolated Power average before May 19 — Ellsbury was still creating runs for his team at a 25% greater rate than a league-average player.

The classic Ellsbury tools were on display during this stage of the season. He was hitting lots of line drives, showing great speed on the base paths and playing sound defense in center field. Between April and the first two weeks of May, the 32-year-old was even walking at a much higher clip than his career norm (11.2% vs. 7.0%). The caveat with those stats, of course, is six weeks is a small sample size, so whether he would have continued his early season production is hard to gauge.

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.


Effectively Wild Episode 734: The Most Important Player on Every Postseason Team

Ben and Sam banter about Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Jerry Dipoto, then pick the player each playoff team would be most screwed without.