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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Minnesota Twins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

55 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .291/.335/.386 in Florida State League in 2016. Also saved 11 runs at shortstop, per Clay Davenport.

Scouting Report
Gordon was one of this decade’s most heavily scouted high schoolers, leaving evaluators extremely comfortable with his skill set and big-league prospects despite a lack of big tools. Scouts, who were obviously aware of Gordon’s parentage, began seeing a lot of him as a freshman when they were scouting Olympia High School senior outfielder Jesse Winker. Gordon was also a regular at all-star games and showcases throughout his high-school career. After four years, teams saw Gordon as a likely, but unexceptional defensive shortstop who would hit for average and maybe grow into some power as he approached his peak.

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The season’s worst home run was a major-league home run. It was hit clean over a major-league fence, against a major-league pitcher, and it didn’t have to bounce off of the head of a major-league outfielder. The season’s worst home run was, objectively, more physically impressive than anything I’ve ever accomplished. I’ve climbed some tall mountains. It’s like walking up really cold and slippery stairs. Nobody would be amazed by anything I’ve done. I’m sitting here amazed that anyone can hit any major-league pitches.

So the point here isn’t to criticize. Everything in baseball is remarkable. But, very simply, there are better home runs, and there are worse home runs. Not all home runs are equally impressive, correct? It follows, therefore, that there would be a worst home run. A least-impressive impressive thing, if you will. Below, you get to see the worst home run of 2016. It was allowed by Chris Sale, and it was hit by Troy Tulowitzki.

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Bud Black believes Mike Scioscia became more progressive this past season. According to the newly-named Colorado Rockies manager — a special assistant with the Angels in 2016 — Billy Eppler was a big reason why. Eppler replaced Jerry Dipoto as Anaheim’s general manager 13 months ago, and according to Black, he had his manager’s ear.

“His relationship with Billy, and the guys Billy brought over, especially some of the analysts — those guys really hit it off,” Black told me. “I think it was very educational for both sides. Mike and his coaches got some great insight from Billy, and from some of the ideas he brought over from the Yankees. Mike reciprocated with some great core principles of baseball. That made for a great dynamic.”

The data bears that out — to an extent. The Angels more than doubled their number of defensive shifts, although they also continued to give up outs with the sacrifice bunt. That ignominious total dropped by just one from the previous year.

At last spring’s SABR Analytics Conference, Eppler called Scioscia an ”information savant.” Based on my interactions with the long-time skipper — including this conversation about analytics — I’m inclined to concur with that claim. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 700
Paul Swydan is the managing editor of the Hardball Times. He’s also editor-in-chief of that site’s annual publication, now available at better bookstores everywhere and also a few subpar bookstores, as well.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 36 min play time.)

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Ben and Sam banter about Kyle Gaedele, then share their thoughts on Mike Trout’s second MVP Award and what it does and doesn’t say about both Trout and the BBWAA.

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It would be fair to label me a skeptic of Dexter Fowler’s defense skills. Despite recording basically average fielding numbers over his two years with the Cubs, Fowler had graded out as a distinctly below-average center fielder in every season of his career before joining Chicago ahead of the 2015 season. In each of the past two years his name has appeared in my early-season defensive-outlier posts, and before last season, I wrote an entire piece wondering if Fowler had actually improved as a defender or if he had merely benefited from better positioning.

Of course, even if the pre-Chicago version of Fowler is the real one, he actually still profiles as a decent player. He has a fantastic walk rate, has exhibited average power as a major leaguer, makes good contact — and, since leaving hitter-friendly Coors Field, has managed to produce a 121 wRC+, well above league average. Dexter Fowler the Hitter and Dexter Fowler the Fielder present two different points from which to begin an analysis of his future value. Let’s take a look at both.

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The Houston Astros have been the most aggressive team of the winter, acquiring Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, and Charlie Morton in the last few days, as they attempt to make their move from contender to division-favorite. The second most aggressive team so far? Probably the Atlanta Braves.

They started off the hot stove season last week by signing Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey to help fill out the back of their rotation. And now, according to reports, they’re aiming for an ace.

Braves are aggressively swapping offers for starting pitchers. Rival officials think Braves and Astros will add the most help this winter.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 16, 2016

More specifically, there’s this from David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

They’ve had talks with teams about trading for still another starter, most notably Chris Sale, 27, a native of Lakeland, Fla. The five-time All-Star left-hander is under contractual control for three more seasons at below-market rates — $38 million total in that three-year span including two option years — and has finished in the top five of the American League Cy Young Award balloting for four consecutive seasons after finishing sixth in his first season as a starter in 2012.

The Braves have also inquired about the Rays’ Chris Archer and Athletics’ Sonny Gray, but Sale is their focus, a person familiar with the situation said.

The price for Sale could be enormous, likely a package including multiple top prospects. The Braves have said they’re not at a point in their rebuild where they’re ready to trade top prospects to fill in gaps, but to get an ace they seem at least willing to consider changing that plan.

On the one hand, this shouldn’t be that surprising: GM John Coppolella is a strong believer in the value of starting pitching, and especially so, in the value of frontline aces. This the kind of pitcher the Braves are always going to be looking for under his watch, and given that they’ve been outspoken that they want to win sooner than later, it shouldn’t be that surprising to see them pursuing players who could significantly improve their roster. Especially with their new stadium opening up next spring, the Braves don’t want to put a bad product on the field, potentially wasting the revenue boost that comes from opening a new ballpark.

But on the other hand, before the team aggressively turns future assets into present value, the Braves should make sure they’re not following in the footsteps of the Arizona Diamondbacks, whose desire to push their window to win forward by a year or two ended up doing a tremendous amount of destruction to the organization.

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Earlier recaps: Episode 1 / Episode 2 / Episode 3 / Episode 4 / Episode 5 / Episode 6 / Episode 7.

Welcome to our recap of the eighth episode of Pitch, entitled “Unstoppable Forces & Immovable Objects”. As always, there are spoilers, so proceed with caution.

Prior to today’s Padres game, Mike Lawson (Mark-Paul Gosselaar) has a breakfast meeting with his agent. Mike has cleared waivers, and several teams are now interested in trading for him. The agent wants to know how open Mike is to waiving his no-trade clause. As of now, Mike isn’t especially amenable to this idea. “We’ll get rained out before I ever leave San Diego,” he declares.

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