Episode 705
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, during which he explains how Yoan Moncada can possess a relatively high floor despite his contact issues; considers the subtle difference between home-run power and overall power; and insults the host with insults.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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It’s possible not to have noticed Ryan Braun last season, but the 32-year-old had a pretty good year. He hit 30 homers, put up a 133 wRC+, and produced just over three wins. There was some talk during the season that Braun might be traded, and a trade that would have sent Yasiel Puig to Milwaukee might have been close. At the time, trading Braun made a lot of sense for the Brewers: the club was firmly situated in a rebuilding stage and Braun’s represented the only big contract remaining on the team’s payroll. While he played well down the stretch, Braun’s trade value has declined nonetheless: he’ll now be another year older, his future production will be worth considerably less than his present, and there’s a glut of bat-first players available on the market.

If Ryan Braun were a free agent, he would be one of the more sought after players available. Consider Braun’s 2016 stat line compared to those produced by two of the best hitters to hit free agency this year.

Cespedes signed with the Mets for $110 million, costing the Mets a compensation draft pick in the process. Edwin Encarnacion has reportedly turned down four years and $80 million. Ryan Braun now has four years and $76 million left on his contract, although $14 million of that amount is deferred interest-free, putting the actual value of the contract closer to $65 million or $70 million in the way we normally think of guaranteed contracts. Braun is two years older than Cespedes, but is one year younger than Encarnacion, and can actually play in the outfield. While Braun isn’t a particularly good defender, saving a few less runs than average in a corner-outfield spot makes his bat playable out there.

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There were a few rookie hitters who ruined it for everyone. Gary Sanchez was completely absurd for a couple of months. Corey Seager immediately performed as one of the best players in baseball. Because of Seager, Trea Turner got overlooked in the National League — out of all the rookies who batted at least 250 times, Turner finished first in wRC+. He had a comfortable 10-point lead.

A couple players in the American League were even more overlooked. Ryon Healy finished fourth in that same group in wRC+. Hardly anyone noticed. And Tyler Naquin finished third, with a wRC+ of 135. Seager came in at 137. Mookie Betts finished at 135. The other Seager finished at 133. Naquin had a breakthrough season, and he was one of the guys who helped push the Indians into the playoffs.

Yet, eyeball the stat line, and you wonder. Naquin struck out three times out of every 10 opportunities. His BABIP was literally north of .400. And he also slugged .514, as a guy who didn’t establish a power-hitting track record in the minors. At 25, Naquin has plenty of time to improve. But in one way, his 2016 looks a lot like Bryce Harper’s 2015.

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Even before Rich Hill re-signed with the Dodgers, this was a rough market for starting pitchers.

Consider that sentence. It’s sort of upsetting. Consider that its implications could have been even more dire had the Cubs not declined Jason Hammel’s option and made him a free agent. Hammel isn’t Chris Sale, of course, but what he is, however, is a quality big league starting pitcher. That’s a big deal in this winter’s market, considering how few of those there are. The list of free agent starters one would relish adding to their rotation wasn’t long to start with, and it’s even shorter now. The remaining candidates are uhh… we’ll get back to you on that. Maybe you can ask Ray Searage how you should feel about Ivan Nova.

Regardless, Hammel isn’t the kind of pitcher that you sign to lead your rotation. He’s the kind of arm you stick in the middle of the group because, more often than not, he’ll give you a decent outing. Steamer projects him to be worth 1.7 WAR next year, which is better than, say, fellow free agent Doug Fister. It’s not as good a projection as Nova gets (2.4 WAR), but there’s a bit more certainty with Hammel than there is betting on Nova’s late-season improvements carrying forward.

Now, Hammel isn’t exactly a workhorse. He’s never reached 180 innings pitched in a season, and given that he was shut down at the end of the year with elbow problems, any team signing him should probably expect him to spend some time on the DL. He’s also going to be 34 next year, and his home run problem seems to only be getting worse as the stuff degrades.

So, yeah, there are some issues here. But this article is supposed to be about Hammel as a valuable commodity. Why are we hyping him up, exactly?

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Kansas City Royals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

55 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 30 strikeouts in 22 big-league innings.

Scouting Report
Strahm saw a 148% uptick in innings as a sophomore at Neosho CC in 2012 and pitched complete games in 11 of his 14 starts (though many of them were not a full nine innings). Strahm dominated and his stuff ticked up as the year went along. (All told, Strahm added almost 15 mph to his fastball between his senior year of high school and his sophomore year of JUCO.) Nevertheless, he lasted until the 21st round of June’s draft. He began experiencing discomfort in his elbow during the 2012 offseason and was misdiagnosed with a stress reaction when in fact he needed Tommy John, which he ultimately received in the summer of 2013. He missed all of 2014 recovering.

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12:00

Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski About to start my weeklyish chat over at FanGraphs! fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szym… 19 Dec 2016

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Curves were in vogue in 2016. A handful of hurlers — Rich Hill, Lance McCullers and Drew Pomeranz among them — were especially reliant on the pitch. In the postseason, the Cleveland Indians threw a boatload of benders against the Toronto Blue Jays, and even more against the Chicago Cubs.

Are we entering a curveball renaissance? Is good old Uncle Charlie making a comeback after years of playing second fiddle to sliders, splitters, and increasing velocity? Can we expect to see more Rich Hills, and more of the attack plan used by Cleveland in the World Series?

I posed that question — my wording varied, but the gist didn’t — to several managers at the Winter Meetings. Here is how they responded:

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Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants: “We have baseball ops that I will put with anybody as far as the information we get. We have all this information, and [we] use it to a point where it makes sense. You don’t get away from your strength as a pitcher. It’s great if a hitter doesn’t hit a curveball, but if your guy doesn’t throw a curveball, you’ve got to make adjustments.

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After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The presence of Mike Trout in the American League renders Mookie Betts‘ (710 PA, 5.9 zWAR) odds of ever winning an MVP award in that same league lower than if Mike Trout were not present in it. This is what’s known in the life as “baleful reality.” That said, Trout’s mere existence doesn’t alter some inalienable facts regarding Betts as a player. Like, for example, how he’s projected to record a 20-20 season in 2017. Or like, for another example, how he’s projected to save 13 runs in right field.

According to ZiPS, Betts is the strongest of Boston’s field players. As for the weakest, this appears to be whatever’s happening at first base. The club recently signed Mitch Moreland (427, 0.5) to a one-year, $5.5 million deal — presumably with the intention of deploying him at first against right-handed pitching. Moreland’s forecast calls for him to hit roughly 10% worse than a league-average batter, though — which isn’t ideal at all for a club that otherwise possesses the requisite talent to win the division.

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On Friday, shortly before it was reported that the low-arm-angle righty would be signing with the Marlins, Dave Cameron wrote that Brad Ziegler is a Freak. Not only does Miami’s new bullpen piece induce worm-killers with an 84-mph fastball, he gets hitters to swing at a high number of changeups below the zone.

Ziegler doesn’t consider himself totally unique, but he does recognize what sets him apart.

“I don’t think I’m much different than other submariners,” Ziegler told me in September. “My sinker and slider are pretty similar to (Darren) O’Day’s. I’d say the movement is pretty standard from where I throw them. But I am different in that I have a changeup — a lot of submariners don’t have one.”

Ziegler throws “a standard circle change” from his down-under slot. It’s a pitch he’s worked diligently to perfect — primarily as a weapon against lefties — and gripping and ripping isn’t an option. Precision is essential. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam talk to The Ringer’s Michael Baumann about his ranking of the 25 most underpaid players and how front-office salaries limit diversity.

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