Archive for April, 2017

Projecting Cody Bellinger

With Andre Ethier, Logan Forsythe, Franklin Gutierrez, Joc Pederson, Rob Segedin all on the DL — and both Chase Utley and Scott Van Slyke struggling to do much of anything — the Dodgers have called up Cody Bellinger to strengthen their lineup. Bellinger is a powerful first-baseman-turned-outfielder who spent the past few weeks mashing .343/.429/.627 at Triple-A at the tender age of 21. Like most first basemen, Bellinger’s power is his biggest asset. He belted 26 homers between Double- and Triple-A last year and has amassed a remarkable 120 extra-base hits since the start of 2015. He’s already hit five out this year, tying him for third among Triple-A hitters.

There’s much more to Bellinger than his homers, however. He’s also a 45 runner who already has seven steals to his name in 2017 and has played all three outfield positions as recently as last year. That same athleticism earned him a 60/70 fielding grade from Eric Longenhagen over the winter. Clay Davenport’s defensive numbers graded him out as a +8 defender across 78 games at first last year.

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You Can Probably Blame Rich Hill’s Blisters on His Curveball

Rich Hill is in the midst of a blister problem. It’s been going on since his breakout season last year. Since only three pitchers in 2016 threw more curveballs than Hill, it makes sense to blame the curve. Maybe there’s more at work, but also maybe not. It’s a pretty reasonable hypothesis.

I mean, for one, the pitcher himself believes it. “It’s right there, on the pad of my finger, where it touches the seams on my curveball,” said Hill on Tuesday night. Curious about the condition of his digit, I pushed: could I take a picture of the pad on his middle finger pad? “Nobody’s taking a picture of my finger,” he laughed. I didn’t pursue the matter any further.

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What Thames and Fielder Learned in Exile

Those who witnessed Eric Thames play in South Korea aren’t so surprised about his exploits in the States this April. After all, he was dubbed “God” there while playing for the NC Dinos in the southeastern port of Changwon.

https://twitter.com/sung_minkim/status/854761988118814720

Over the last couple of weeks my colleagues at FanGraphs have written about the scary, scarier, and scariest feats and underlying performance metrics of Thames.

On Tuesday, FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron asked the people what they would now pay for Thames. (FWIW, I chose to pay Thames $11-15 million of my make-believe dollars per annum. You can still vote!)

Thames continued to mash Tuesday evening…

And Thames continues to be drug tested…

https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/857068592818515969

Even if the Reds’ staff remains mostly equivalent to KBO pitching — kidding (kind of)! — Thames has been Bonds-ian over the first few weeks of the season.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 4/26/17

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Look forward to seeing all the DC-metro folks at Pitch Talks on Monday night.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Let’s talk baseball (or children’s books) for the next hour.

12:02
Scott: I think Gurriel read your article about the Astros needing a first baseman.

12:03
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ve noticed. That said, it’s basically all a .500 BABIP; he still doesn’t walk and has modest power.

12:03
ChiSox2020: Dave can you please rank the top 5 White Sox pitchers trade values? (Exclude Rodon since he won’t be traded)

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Alex Cobb on Rekindling a Relationship with His Split

Two weeks ago, Eno Sarris wrote about how Alex Cobb’s split-change has gone missing. The Tampa Bay Rays righty had a very good one before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of 2015, but the arduous road back extracted a heavy toll. The changeup is a feel pitch, and — cue up some Righteous Brothers blue-eyed soul — Cobb lost that loving feeling.

Fortunately for the 29-year-old hurler, it’s not gone, gone, gone. As a matter of fact, his relationship with his signature offering is already being rekindled. Cobb threw his split-change just 10 times in the game about which Eno wrote. In ensuing outings that number has climbed to 13, and most recently to 23.

I haven’t spoken to Cobb since he last pitched, but I did talk to him after he faced Boston on April 16. That was the game where he threw 13 split-changes, along with 36 curveballs and 44 fastballs. He wasn’t particularly pleased with his performance, but he was thinking positive thoughts. Rather than feeling forlorn, he was looking forward to an inevitable reunion with a pitch he holds dear to his heart.

———

Cobb on why his changeup went missing: “If I had that answer, it would be here. But I do have ideas. Going into Tommy John surgery, you hear that the overall feel of pitches comes back slowly, and the changeup is usually the last one to come back.

“It has nothing to do with [flexor-group muscles, as Eno theorized]. I feel completely normal. When people say ‘feel on a pitch’ — especially a changeup — it’s usually a mechanical thing. Feel isn’t what the ball feels like. It’s not a literal term. It’s the way your body feels, in rhythm, over the rubber. We’re talking about inches, even fractions of inches, of changes that impact the flight of the ball.

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Top 24 Prospects: Oakland Athletics

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Oakland Athletics farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
AL West (HOU, LAA, SEA, TEX)

As Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Franklin Barreto 21 AAA SS 2017 55
2 A.J. Puk 21 A+ LHP 2019 55
3 Jharel Cotton 25 MLB RHP 2017 55
4 Matt Chapman 23 AAA 3B 2017 50
5 Frankie Montas 24 MLB RHP 2017 50
6 Daulton Jefferies 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
7 Daniel Gossett 24 AAA RHP 2017 45
8 Heath Fillmyer 22 AA RHP 2018 45
9 Grant Holmes 21 AA RHP 2019 45
10 Chad Pinder 25 MLB UTIL 2017 45
11 Logan Shore 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
12 Dakota Chalmers 20 A RHP 2020 40
13 Norge Ruiz 23 R RHP 2018 40
14 Yerdel Vargas 17 R SS 2021 40
15 Jaycob Brugman 25 AAA OF 201 40
16 Yairo Munoz 22 AA 3B 2018 40
17 Richie Martin 22 AA SS 2020 40
18 Bruce Maxwell 26 MLB C 2017 40
19 Matt Olson 23 MLB 1B/OF 2017 40
20 Sean Murphy 22 R C 2019 40
21 Lazaro Armenteros 17 R LF 2021 40
22 Max Schrock 22 AA 2B 2019 40
23 Sylar Szynski 19 R RHP 2021 40
24 Bobby Wahl 25 AAA RHP 2017 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Venezuela
Age 21 Height 5’10 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 55/55 40/45 60/60 40/45 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded .295 career batting average.

Scouting Report
Barreto was signed by Toronto for $1.45 million back in 2012 and then traded to Oakland — along with Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie, and Sean Nolin — in exchange for Josh Donaldson. Bay Area sports talk radio still discusses the deal with frequency and bile, and largely considers Barreto the last hope for salvaging it, though Graveman and his sinker appear to be breaking out this year.

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Chris Coghlan Takes Flight

Seemingly ever since humans gained sentience, we’ve been obsessed with the concept of flight. How powerful birds must have seemed to ancient man, able to free themselves from the constraints of the ground. Joyous was the starling, dancing and warbling through the air. Terrifying was the hawk, diving for a kill. To fly is to move in ways unimaginable for those trapped on the surface. We stared at the sky, the last frontier to be conquered, and dreamed. We told stories of magical heroes and gods who could fly. We sought any way possible to experience it, from the Dark Ages to Da Vinci and on.

By the time we came up with hot-air balloons and gliders and airplanes and helicopters so that we could join the birds in the sky, perhaps we lost a little bit of that wonder. Generations have now grown up with intercontinental flight as a simple fact of life. We still dream of joining the birds in the skies, of flying like Superman. But we no longer wonder if it’s possible. We know that we can fly with mechanical aid. But we’ll never truly join the birds. At least not for more than a few seconds.

It’s a small stroke of genius that the gods put Chris Coghlan on a team named after a bird. And indeed, last night’s Blue Jays came in St. Louis against the Cardinals, who are also named for birds. Teams named for birds play each other all the time, of course. The Jays play in the same division as the Orioles. Almost none of those games, if none at all, have featured a moment like this.

We can’t earnestly call what Coghlan accomplishes here flight. If anything, it’s falling with style. It’s a leap and a near-perfect handspring. It’s something out of a gymnastics exhibition, except Coghlan is wearing cleats and a helmet instead of a unitard. It’s the closest anyone’s come to real, honest-to-goodness flight on a baseball field since Ben Revere achieved liftoff in 2013.

Coghlan didn’t plan on springing over the head of Yadier Molina. Like the most satisfying superhero origin stories, he didn’t know he had the power inside of him. He jumped because instinct told him to, because years upon years of baseball conditioning told him to score that run. Humans are capable of great physical feats when fueled by adrenaline and instinct. They can lift cars, run faster than they ever have before. For a few precious seconds, they can fly. If they’re lucky, they can even stick the landing, like Coghlan did.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 4/25/17

6:46
Paul Swydan:

What is your favorite flavor of original Starburst?

Cherry (24.2% | 49 votes)
 
Lemon (11.3% | 23 votes)
 
Orange (13.8% | 28 votes)
 
Strawberry (38.6% | 78 votes)
 
I can’t decide! (3.9% | 8 votes)
 
I don’t like any of them (4.9% | 10 votes)
 
I’ve never eaten original Starburst (2.9% | 6 votes)
 

Total Votes: 202
6:50
Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7 pm matchup?

TB (Ramirez) vs. BAL (Miley) (1.5% | 3 votes)
 
CHC (Hendricks) vs. PIT (Cole) (44.7% | 86 votes)
 
SEA (Hernandez) vs. DET (Zimmermann) (12.5% | 24 votes)
 
CIN (Feldman) vs. MIL (Davies) (2.6% | 5 votes)
 
Rain vs. Mankind (38.5% | 74 votes)
 

Total Votes: 192
6:54
Paul Swydan:

What is the best 8 pm or later matchup?

MIN (Santana) vs. TEX (Cashner) (6.3% | 12 votes)
 
KC (Duffy) vs. CHW (Covey) (1.0% | 2 votes)
 
TOR (Estrada) vs. STL (Wacha) (29.7% | 56 votes)
 
WAS (Ross) vs. COL (Marquez) (5.3% | 10 votes)
 
SD (Richard) vs. ARI (Corbin) (4.7% | 9 votes)
 
OAK (Hahn) vs. LAA (Ramirez) (0.5% | 1 vote)
 
LAD (Kershaw) vs. SF (Blach) (52.1% | 98 votes)
 

Total Votes: 188
9:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01
Alex: 10 team OPS league should I trade Cruz, Cespedes, Chris Davis for Rizzo and Daniel Murphy?

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Help Evaluate Some of the Game’s Worst Hitters

Hello! Yesterday I posted this. In that post, I briefly discussed five outrageously hot offensive starts — specifically, those achieved by Eric Thames, Bryce Harper, Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Haniger, and Aaron Judge. I solicited feedback in the form of a rest-of-season wRC+ projection for each bat. Although I didn’t include every hitter off to a scorching start, I touched on five of significant interest, and your overall participation level has been great. Thank you for that — without participants, these polls would be super embarrassing.

Comments and tweets were left suggesting I run a similar post, focusing on guys who’ve been bad hitters. This has happened because humans love symmetry, and also because it’s just simply the obvious thing to do. So now, same thing, with different players owning very different numbers. Again, the post below doesn’t cover everyone who’s mired in a slump — sorry for those of you who want to read about, say, Carlos Gonzalez or Keon Broxton or Jonathan Lucroy. I’ve chosen five players and stuck with five players, and I’d love it if you’d participate once more. There’s no such thing as a participation trophy, but if there were, you could get one! All for placing an internet vote. (Actually up to five internet votes.)

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FanGraphs Audio: The Massive Lacunae in Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Episode 735
Managing editor Dave Cameron is the guest on this edition of the program, during which he discusses the absence of Starling Marte from the Pirates and the absence of Madison Bumgarner from the Giants and, implicitly, the absence of “human behavior” from his behavior.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)

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