Archive for 2017

Earlier this week, I examined the Rafael Devers call up and the void that has been the Red Sox’ third base production for what seems like forever. But I also looked at the weakest position player units among the contenders such as the Rockies’ right field situation (and catcher, and first base and shortstop positions) and the Yankees’ first base production.

But another notable production void among contenders, particularly among division leaders with aspirations of playing deep into October, is the Nationals’ catching situation. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not supposed to embed pictures or videos above the fold. (We have a fold.) So I’m going to get right to it, inserting an early page break so I can show you a clip from last night. Turns out Wednesday was Brandon Morrow’s 33rd birthday! He was asked by the Dodgers to handle the seventh inning of what would turn into a dramatic come-from-behind victory. Morrow set the Twins down 1-2-3. Below, a pitch that he threw to Brian Dozier.

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Wednesday night, Justin Smoak hit another home run. It was a rather big home run, a dramatic ninth-inning home run, but as far as these purposes are concerned, all that matters is that a home run happened, nevermind the context. A couple months ago, it looked like Smoak could be breaking out, at last. He hasn’t slowed down even the tiniest bit. He’s been one of the more dangerous hitters in all of baseball, and for as much as the Blue Jays’ season has gone down the toilet, Smoak’s made for a great story. His career WAR is 3.4. His 2017 WAR is 3.1.

I’ve been thinking about Smoak a lot. But then, there are also other dots to connect. A story that’s similar to Smoak’s is that of Logan Morrison. In the AL West, Yonder Alonso has turned himself into an offensive weapon. There’s also been the unexpected breakout of Marwin Gonzalez, and while I don’t want to just go down a list name by name, there have been other big surges, and also a number of shocking collapses. Carlos Gonzalez has fallen apart. Jonathan Lucroy, too. Names and more names and more names.

It feels like hitters have been particularly unpredictable. But there could be a strong element of recency bias — I remember this year’s studies the best, and examinations tend to focus on the biggest surprises. So I tried to dig into the numbers. Turns out it’s more than just a hunch.

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Heading into last night’s start, the Rangers were reportedly still undecided on what to do with Yu Darvish at the trade deadline. At 49-51, they weren’t exactly playing like a postseason contender, but the mediocrity of the American League means they’re still in the Wild Card race, which would point towards keeping their ace to try and make a run. But in a market saturated with low-end arms, Darvish would be the rare premium starting pitcher available, and the team could potentially land a significant return for a player they might lose in free agency this winter.

So with a bunch of scouts on hand, the team had to hope Darvish would give them some clarity. Instead, his start only made things more confusing.

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Interviews are often meandering things that you have to corral in order to make sense of anything. Every once in a while, though, you get a player with a cadence that should remain unbroken and a subject that provides them with a runway — why stand in the way? I once did this with J.D. Martinez, who has taken to this game in a mechanical manner and told us how he came to his realizations about how he should best play baseball. Now let’s let Andrew McCutchen talk about how he got his mojo back, in only the way he can. It’s a very different approach, but there’s a beauty in that I’d rather not sully with my own words.

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Tanner Houck was 20 years old when the Red Sox selected him 24th overall out of the University of Missouri in this year’s amateur draft. Another number is every bit as important. According to some evaluators, the 6-foot-5 right-hander’s sinking fastball grades out as a 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale). Kevin Brown comparisons have accompanied his ascent to professional baseball.

Houck augments his signature pitch with a slider and a changeup, neither of which grades out as plus at this stage of development. But each has potential, and thanks to the quality of his go-to, they’re almost icing on the cake. Delivered from a low three-quarters arm angle, Houck’s bowling-ball heater is an open invitation for an infield roller.

Houck, who is getting his feet wet with the short-season Lowell Spinners, talked about his game shortly before making his professional debut in mid July.

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In recent off-seasons, I have attempted to ascertain team’s baseline true-talent levels utilizing batted ball data. This year, let’s do the same with current year data through the break. Today, let’s look at the American League.

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Earlier this month I set out to explore an adjustment Bryce Harper has been working on, a sort of lower gear, to ostensibly better allow him to compete against elite velocity and with two strikes.

As of July 26th, the leg-kick-less swing remains, and it continues to get results. It has helped Harper become the best two-strike hitter in baseball this season and it is not particularly close as you can see via FanGraphs leaderboards. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Shohei Otani, another strange stance, and Eduardo Nunez, then answer listener emails about players owning particular teams, a potential tagging-up loophole, the all-time record for grounding into double plays, the negative interpretation of the White Sox rebuild, trading for players who would have played one’s opponents, switch-hitters with big splits, a world in which the Astros are still in the NL Central, Mike Trout’s consistency, offering advice to players, Satchel Paige’s stats, Alex Verdugo’s off-the-head homer, and more.

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