2018 Positional Power Rankings: Left Field
The phrase “out of left field” is typically used to describe the emergence of something strange and unexpected into our lives. Apparently, the expression came from Chicago. There was a mental hospital near left field of the West Side Grounds where the Cubbies used to play up until the early 20th century. Sometimes Cubs fans at the ballpark could hear the patients of the hospital scream. That’s some wild, wild stuff.
It’s also probably baloney.
What follows is the opposite of baloney. What follows is the post containing the left-field portion of our positional power rankings. Which is fortunate, because we’re out of baloney. Have a scrumptious graph instead:
It’s finally here. The promise: fulfilled. You asked for it and you got it.
The Marlins Takeover.
Yep, the top three depth charts here each contain a member of the 2017 Miami Marlins outfield. Including Ichiro and Derek Dietrich, five out of 30 teams can make this claim. That’s good for 16.7% of baseball. Always be specific with your wishes, kiddos.
Bless his heart, Roger was reared in Brooklyn, New York. He co-founded and co-hosts the Good Fundies podcast and website. He's too busy and self-involved to hate your favorite team. @yayroger and @goodfundies on Twitter.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this was happening elsewhere, but this is the first place I noticed that something about the Depth Chart projections seem…not quite right?
Yelich’s page:
ZiPS: 4.1, 682 PAs, 0.006012 WAR per PA
Steamer: 3.9, 647 PAs, 0.006028 WAR per PA
Depth Charts projects 630 PAs, so it should come out to approximately 3.8 WAR (this being a weighted average and all).
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/depth-charts/
Instead, we get:
Depth Charts: 3.4, 630 PAs, 0.005397 WAR per PA
My understanding is that Depth Charts was just an average of ZiPS and Steamer, but somehow we wind up with a lower rate of WAR per plate appearances. Can someone shed some light about what’s going on here?
My completely uneducated guess is that Steamer and ZiPS think he will play in CF more causing his bat to be worth less in Depth Charts.
Joe Joe, I think you are on to something. The Brewer’s DC shows nearly all Yelich’s play time as a corner outfield.
As I understand it, one of the general theories of WAR was that as one move’s down the defensive spectrum one’s positional adjustment will go down, but their’s Fielding Runs will likely rise to compensate. Correct? It seems the Fangraph’s depth charts might not account for this:
For his career Yelich has a UZR/150 of +4.4 runs. (versus -5.9 runs in CF, a delta of 10.3 runs which is for all intents and purposes exactly the difference is positional adjustment between those positions!)
And yet the depth charts project him to accumulate just 0.7 fielding runs as a corner OF. Tack on 3 or 4 more runs to that total and we’ve found the 0.4 wins discrepancy in his DC WAR projection.
That shouldn’t matter. The Positional Adjustments should balance the differences out in WAR, if it was done properly. I too am curious about this. Depth Charts splits the Woba of both Steamer and Zips in the middle and the Flding is the same, but you would expect a ~4 WAR. The only thing I can think of is that there is an adjustment on all players as the total WAR can only add up to 1000 for MLB. My guess is the total WAR of Steamer and Zips comes in higher and they need to adjust down for Depth Charts.
I don’t see the same adjustment in WAR for every player so total WAR rounding isn’t the only thing here.
League-wide positional adjustments aren’t perfect for every player. If ZiPs/Steamer project fielding runs at different positions based on past performances at different positions, players will lose value if not played at their player-specific optimal position.
I’m trying to find out more on this. Stay tuned!
Thanks!
The Ian Desmond Contract rears its ugly head again.
We are now up to 280 total PAs for Charlie Culberson, Please tell me you are just trolling Braves fans. Please?
By law, you must refer to him as Postseason Hero Charlie Culberson
Acceptable alternatives include Cub Ciller Culberson and Team Career Postseason HR Leader Charlie Culberson
When we design a projection system capable of adjusting for clutch, we will call it CULBY
**tied with Fangraphs favorite Nick Markakis
Charlie Culberson Career WS Home Runs: 1
Rest of Atlanta Braves 40 man roster Career WS Home Runs:
Also if you put their photos next to each other, it is impossible to distinguish Charlie Culberson from Dansby Swanson.
Charlie Culberson career postseason OPS: .982
Freddie Freeman career postseason OPS: .955
I refuse to believe Niko Goodrum doesn’t play on the same team as Bobson Dugnutt
I’d just like to thank all the FG authors here for this excellent series of articles. It has helped me learn much more about the teams I don’t follow regularly, and every article so far has been written with such a great blend of analysis and humor. This is really excellent stuff, worthy of supporting with an inexpensive membership!!!
I’m a bit shocked that Kipnis is being projected for 140 PAs in left field. The Indians have shown no desire to move him to the outfield. Sure, he may be forced to play some left field this year. But it seems like the Indians view that as the last resort, only after they’ve run through their other 99 option in left.
That was simply an oversight. The depth charts have been adjusted behind the scenes. Don’t ever feel bad about making corrections like these — we want to be as accurate as possible!
On the Astros, Tucker will get the majority of the plate appearances in LF after mid June once Super Two has likely passed. It will make their Depth Chart projection for LF go down slightly, but I think Astros expect him to be better than Marwin Gonzalez in LF.
Tucker has played 72 games above A ball and none above AA. The Astros have Springer, Reddick and Marisnick under contract or team control for another 3 years and Fisher for 6 years. Fisher has put up very good numbers at AAA the last 2 years and to me figures to be next in line. And that’s before you consider Gonzalez who figures to play some OF at times.
Unless Tucker goes nuts this year and completely, totally and obviously forces the issue, I’m not seeing what the Astros gain by promoting him this year and burning a year of team control. I’m thinking he stays down this year with a September cup of coffee and doesn’t get a full-time call until May of next year at the earliest and even that is questionable given the incredible depth the Astros have. He may not even get a full-time call-up until 2020.
These “blocked” situations and overabundances of depth seem to always work themselves out via injury, decline, and regression. It’s very doubtful the Astros go until 2020 without have a need that Kyle Tucker can fill.
If things go perfectly and he is blocked, I think it would make a ton of sense to ship Reddick out while he is still above water on his contract. If you can pay Tucker $500,000 instead of paying Reddick $13 million, that frees up more money to get pitching help, which every team always needs.
Fair point and that certainly could happen. The way I see it is the Astros’ payroll is going to start getting huge by 2020 with Altuve/Reddick/Gurriel making ~$47M and each of Springer, Giles, McCullers, Peacock, Marisnick, Correa, Bregman, Devenski and White (among others) at various stages of arbitration. B-ref is estimating total arbitration costs for that year at $46M but that seems awfully low to me. And that’s before they figure out a way to replace Verlander, Cole, Keuchel and Morton who are all FA over the next 2 offseasons.
Planning ahead for 2021 and beyond might mean holding Tucker back an extra year or two to keep him affordable into the mid-2020s.
Also trades.
If Tucker forces the issue and Fisher is also good, the lesser talent(Fisher?) will find willing takers and bring back comparable value elsewhere.
Teams can’t afford to bury MLB-ready talent just because a position is deep. There’s always a need somewhere else. Besides, the minor League Options limit exists to minimize that kind of stockpiling. It’s not fair to the player nor good for the game.
It doesn’t happen often but teams have been known to trade players just to get them a chance to play elsewhere.
Considering how highly rated Tucker is as a prospect, isn’t it more likely than not that he goes nuts in AA, forces the issue, and then spends time in AAA waiting for Super Two? Astros want Gonzalez free to sub everywhere. Tucker’s competition is Fisher and Marisnick.
The whole Astros’ playing time projections in the outfield are a little weird. They seem to have taken last year’s playoff arrangement (with Springer exclusively in center field and Reddick exclusively in right field) and taken it at face value. I wouldn’t be surprised if the go back to the Reddick-Marisnick-Springer outfield in some capacity, allowing Gonzalez to go back to his everyday super-sub role.
Most definitely. I suspect Fisher is fighting Marisnick (Reddick sliding to LF) for PAs out of the gate with Gonzalez being a last resort if both of them fail.
All this to say, where I can bet on >1.6 WAR for Astros in LF in 2018?
Schwarber looks stupid skinny. Do we have any data that can help us predict how changes in weight affect power, contact, etc? I’m genuinely curious how this is going to play out. I love the guy’s work ethic but is weight loss actually going to translate to production? I can’t wait to find out.
Re: Adam Eaton, he somewhat notably has not been an everyday CF since 2014. He spent 2016 as a RF and the metrics loved hi there, and it was notable at the time he was traded for that he was going to be moved back to CF to accommodate one Bryce Harper.
Claiming a MLB club is abusing the system is a pretty serious accusation and requires serious evidence.
For instance, Cubs starting Bryant off in the minors was suspicious because
Bryant was brilliant with his bat (wrc+ 164 in AAA and OPS 1.652 in spring)
and his defense seemed perfectly fine to most scouts.
Rangers sending Calhoun to minors looks quite reasonable because
while his bat seems decent, (wrc+ 133 in AAA and OPS 0.606 in spring) his defense, by most accounts, is indeed bad.
There is a reason why Eric Longenhagen’s report on Calhoun had him listed as DH
and starts off by saying ‘Calhoun doesn’t have a position’.
Based on this, I just don’t buy that Calhoun’s defense is projected to be better than Brantley, Granderson and similar to Pederson.
Of course, all of this was already pointed out by others in Craig’s article.
The only apparent case of service time manipulation this year is Ronald Acuna, since the Braves (a) have a gaping hole in left field (see this article) and (b) Acuna mashed AAA last year.
The next most likely guy? I think it’s Willy Adames. The Rays are going to start Adeiny Hechevarria at shortstop, who is bad enough that nearly any team should be interested in seeing what they have in their top position prospect hanging out at AAA.
Acuna’s gonna blow past that projection. Assuming he’s up by the third week and doesn’t get hurt, the Braves will finish with top 5 production at this position.
I love Marwin Gonzalez . He’s now been mentioned in the past 5 straight posts in this series and had a dedicated paragraph in all but the SS post, which is funny since it’s likely his most natural position.
It’s amazing how he isn’t necessarily uniquely good at anything in particular at baseball, but he is uniquely competent at so many aspects of baseball(pitching/catching and self awareness about how much freaking time he’s taking between pitches, being the exceptions), it makes him uniquely good at general baseball.
I’m not sure what you mean by “uniquely good at anything” but Marwin has hit .278/.330/.447 over the last four years. That’s good for a 114 wRC. He’s good at hitting. Marwin has a job because he is good at hitting.
Oh, I don’t mean to say isn’t good at anything. Anyway you slice it he’s good with his bat, could easily project him to be 10-15% above average.
I mean uniquely as like, what makes him a standout. 70 guys have been better offensively in the time span you quoted so he’s been perfectly good with his bat but not really a standout. What makes him unique is how many different things he’s pretty good at.
If Calhoun gets 420 PAs as a left fielder, the Rangers are probably screwed. Scouting reports indicate that he makes Mark Trumbo look like a Gold Glove LF, and I’m not exaggerating.
The hate towards Matt Kemp is astounding. I am rooting for him for no other reason than the hate that is directed towards him.
Dude is a calamitous fielder with poor plate discipline.
Other than that, he’s great!
Dude gets paid to hit which has become an underrated skill.
Except he’s not even above average at that any more.
Except as his speed left and his average declined, he now gets on base at a below-average rate, and doesn’t have the power to make up for it.
Matt Kemp who hit .290-300 was great
Matt Kemp who hits .260 isn’t great, he’s never developed the walks to make up for the lost batting average.
Most high caliber hitters add walks as they age and it counter-balances some of the batting average decline, but Kemp has not done that, and there’s not a lot of value in modern MLB for good-power dudes with below-average on base skills.
Ronnie flippin Dobbs!
In what world is Willie Calhoun a bigger draw than Joey Gallo? I’m really bullish on Willie but come on
You are right I forgot about Joey “Oops I broke the Statcast” Gallo. I sincerely apologize. Sincerely.
All good. Your broad point is still correct 🙁
Yellie gets poor WAR rating not reflecting his body of work, change in ball park or actual projections. Not buying the PA projection either. May want to revisit that projection of 2.6 in my opinion.
Jose Reyes is a former Marlin.
Cub fans said Schwarber was better than Babe Ruth. Hahahaha
Will Jabari Blash ever land a major league starting job with one of the flyover states? Probably not, sadly. I’d love to hear an announcer say, “He blashed it out of the park!”
Seems like a rite of passage for Fangraphs authors to predict the demise of Braun.
“…a squad that has always managed to be the Charlie of Philadelphia sports teams.”
I have no idea what “the Charlie” means.
I believe it’s a reference to the goofy Charlie character in It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Since I’ve never watched that show – not a diss, just never got around to it – that would go right over my head. Thanks!
How is Hoskins projected for a positive Fld mark?
“The official reason is his defense needs some work. That official reason somehow had stink lines on it.”
This narrative needs to die. Scouts are nearly universal in their claims that Calhoun would be just about the worst defensive player in the MLB right now at any position other than DH.
How could Acuna be projected for a -1.1 BsR but also be projected for 29 stolen bases?