2018 Positional Power Rankings: First Base
On Monday, Craig Edwards began our positional power rankings series by evaluating the catchers. If you’re unfamiliar with the process or concept, Jeff explained the series yesterday, too. Today, we tackle first base.
First base is at an interesting place. There remains plenty of familiar star power at the top of FanGraphs position rankings here, from Paul Goldschmidt to Anthony Rizzo to Joey Votto, the type of lineup-anchoring sluggers you expect to find at a position that is typically a run-production workhorse. There are also emerging young stars like Cody Bellinger and perhaps Matt Olson.
And first base has become home to a growing number of fly-ball revolutionaries, players attempting to make swing changes to get under the ball and save or extend careers standing by improving their overall offensive efficiency. It makes sense that players like Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison and Ryan Zimmerman would be among those motivated to launch more pitches into the air since they don’t have much defensive versatility to fall back upon.
First base, from a production standpoint, also appears to be a healthy place. First basemen led all position groups with a 113 wRC+ last season, their second-highest mark of the last decade. First basemen also produced their collective second-highest WAR total (80.7) of the last 10 years.
But the position has become crowded and so loaded with offensive sources that free-agent first basemen were having trouble finding work this winter. Power has become so common, so easy to find, it’s become devalued. For instance, Morrison hit 38 home runs last season and posted a 130 wRC+ but had to settle for a one-year, $2.5-million deal.
What it all means is that first base is deep and that, to excel at the position — for a player to separate himself — in the following rankings, he really has to hit.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
That took a long time but nice information
I think you’re looking for xTube.
Whoa, I just noticed the “view by team” widget and it is insanely cool. Thanks, behind-the-curtain FanGraphs wizards!
Did Ryan ZImmerman change his swing plane? He has said he didn’t change it. His FB% by year:
2014: 35.4%
2015: 35.0%
2016: 34.7%
2017: 33.7%
His line drive % did go up from 16.7% to 19.9% from 2016 to 2017, but he had LD% over 20% as recently as 2014. I think what happened last year was his HR/FB ratio jumped to 26.5% which he had never been close to doing before, and he didn’t go on the DL.
Zimmerman is not a confirmed swing changer, which is true. Maybe he didn’t really do anything and it is errant speculation … but it seemed to me he was getting on plane with pitches more effectively
Zimmerman’s relevant 2017 splits. Surprising to see second half higher than first given his amazing 40% flyball mark in April:
split—GB/FB
Mar/Apr-0.93
May—–1.52
Jun—–1.95
Jul—–1.48
Aug—–1.45
S/O—–1.09
1st—–1.43
2nd—–1.3
Interestingly, Zimmerman makes hard contact with the best in the league. Last year, he was 16th among 144 qualified players with a hard% of 40.5% (and 26th lowest soft% at 14.1%). It seems to me that Zimmerman stands to benefit more than most from even a moderate FB or LD increase, since he hits the ball so much harder than most everyone else.
Abreu opted out of his last three years in favor of arbitration. He’s making $13M this year, and his 2019 salary is TBD.
I regret the error. It’s fixed
Michael Conforto is not returning in May unless he is re-injured. He is already playing CF in games. If he would go to extended ST and then the minors until May, it would be the longest rehab stint for a player the team actually wanted that I could ever recall. His over/under is ~ the second week of the season now even though no one has come out and said it.
‘Tis a fool’s errand to trust the medical staff of the Metropolitans. He may be “ahead of schedule” now, but would anybody be surprised if he has a setback and is out until May, June, or beyond? Not to mention that regaining production after a major shoulder injury is no sure thing and could prompt significant extra reps on a rehab stint.
granted these are risks: I would wager that Bruce has more 1B ABs this year than Adrian Gonzalez with them in mind.
I would agree with that only because I think Adrian Gonzalez is the Mets’ yearly mid-season DFA, joining the likes of De Aza, Chris Young, John Mayberry Jr, etc. Which seems to be Sawchik’s point, that a lot of 1B reps will go to the least capable defensive outfielder. But I could also see the team try to make Conforto The Center Fielder work again, especially if Nimmo isn’t spectacular. Not that I think that would be a good idea, but good ideas are rarely the Mets’ stock and trade.
FYI for those of you were puzzled for a while (like me), the writeup is only visible if you allow scripts from unpkg.com to run in your browser window.
As a Brewer fan, I see a lot of problems with the depth chart distribution of playing time and the numbers generated. There is a near 0% chance Jesus Aguilar is Brewer this year, yet the DC have him getting 1/4 of the playing time. In the very unlikely scenario he does get playing time, if he posts anywhere near the projected .311 wOBA he won’t last long. Eliminating his PA and giving them to either Braun or Thames vaults the Brewers from 21st on the list to 10th or so. This also doesn’t consider that Braun will be facing mostly LHP and Thames will be facing all RHP which should inflate their wOBA.
On the other hand, I am sure Brewers fans are not alone in seeing these “mistakes”. I wonder if this means the FG projections could be improved by using local input or if the undiscriminating nature of these local blindspots make it so any local adjustments would just wash each other out.
Although it’s too late for this post, which is of course already published, the Brewers depth chart has been adjusted to address your concerns.
Eliminating Aguilar’s PAs and giving them all to Braun/Thames, who are projected for exactly the same WAR/PA, would remove -0.0 of Aguilar’s WAR and add 0.46 WAR (1.0 WAR per 350 PA and 1.0*161/350) to Thames’/Braun’s WAR, resulting in just under 2.0 total Brewers 1B WAR, which would “vault” them from 21st to 17th.
The thing that sticks out to me is the author didn’t look at Thames performance over the season.
I would think that if Gurriel went down or seriously faltered, the Astros would go to their ridiculous stockpile of MLB ready bats in the minors for a solution and leave Marwin as the super utility guy. Each of White, Davis, and Reed have played 1B and all 3 posted wOBAs of at least .377 in AAA last year. They are all ready for a shot at the majors and have nowhere to play and that’s just the 1B candidates. They also have Fisher and Tucker who are both OF and look MLB-ready and have nowhere to play either. It’s kind of unfair really.
Heck, the Astros are having trouble finding spots for all these guys in AAA now. In looking the above up, I noticed that 5’11”, 225 lb Tyler White made 20 starts at SS and 21 starts at 2B last year.
Am I the only one seeing a 0.4 WAR projection for Ryan McMahon as a little on the low side?
He could put up 0.4 WAR in April alone. Or he could struggle and lose his job to Desmond. I suspect that earning 420 plate appearances would coincide with him exceeding these projections.
The Ian Desmond Contract is the gift that keeps on giving.
Anthony Rizzo is the same player as Eric Hosmer….and yet Rizzo and the Cubs are 1st on this list. More overrated and overhyped Cubs.
Anthony Rizzo’s wRC+, past four years: 155, 145, 144, 133
Eric Hosmer’s wRC+, past four years: 98, 124, 102, 135
Rizzo, 4-year average: .282/.388/.522, 144 wRC+, 5 WAR per year
Hosmer, 4-year average: .288/.350/.449, 116 wRC+, 2 WAR per year
Rizzo, career: 908 games, 23.4 WAR
Hosmer, career: 1048 games, 9.9 WAR
Yup, checks out, those are indeed identical players.
Can we just ban this guy? He trolls like this on every article that mentions the Cubs.
That is not true. He does not limit himself to articles that mention the Cubs.
I just wish he put in more effort. This is the laziest troll job ever.
“No, like, they are the SAME GUY. Have you ever seen them in the same room together? Really makes you think. ” — Kyrie Irving
Actually, the Cubs and Royals didn’t face each other last year.
CONFIRMED: ANTHONY RIZZO IS ERIC HOSMER
Padres seemed to think Hosmer was pretty good.
Votto,and Goldy are still better.
For the Giants, Pablo Sandoval is going to be on the roster as the backup 1B/3B and should get the ABs designated for Ryder Jones here. Also, Posey has averaged about 90 PAs per season as a 1B over the last 6 years.
He might, but he should not.
He’s been spectacular this spring. I think Sandoval may surprise folks a bit this year.
Anyone care to trot out a super long list of players that have been “spectacular” in spring training, and then don’t even get to the point of being “serviceable” major leaguers? I bet you can find at least a dozen guys batting .400 in spring training this year (even with an above average # of ABs) that this will describe.
Some of you are being way too critical today. This is a lot of good info and analysis. I don’t understand why Travis’ replies are being down voted.
Some readers just can’t have nice things
Pretty sure that Morrison’s contract is for $6.5 million? http://www.startribune.com/first-baseman-logan-morrison-and-twins-are-working-on-a-deal/475090873/
I’d say, purely on the basis of projected 1B (all depth considered), that the Royals got a steal here. On the win curve, it might not mean much. But if I were thinking of going to Kauffman Stadium, I’d be very happy.
Interesting that nine out of the top ten (I should check: is it only eight?) teams are in the NL, however. And there’s a sharp drop below that to ~2 WAR and a bit. Is this a statistical fluke? Because, honestly, every single AL team would absolutely love to have one of those (price discounted! They’re only mashers with a glove!) stars on their team at 1B.
I’m trying to work out how the DH factors into this but, honestly, I can’t see it.
When I saw the title of this post, I immediately assumed Seattle would be at or near the bottom.
I don’t get the attraction to Healy, unless they believe they can teach him to lay off breaking balls outside, much like Zunino has (well, he’s improved, anyway). But Vogelbach is actually looking like a competent 1st baseman and has been taking better hacks without compromising his plate discipline. With Healy missing most of spring, I don’t know how Dan doesn’t get the nod opening day. Ford has slowly started to come around as well.
The projections aren’t good for Seattle’s 1st base options, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Dan Vogelbach ends up offering respectable numbers for the Mariners–if he’s given a real opportunity.
Joey Votto seems to be a perfect hitting robot, a machine built for no purpose other than being the best hitter possible. And yet Mike Trout is somehow an even better hitter. And really fast. And able to play the outfield.
The Rays’ whole “let’s get rid of bad fastball hitters and replace them with objectively worse players at a time when fastballs are declining as a percentage of overall pitches” thing seems counterintuitive and too singularly-focused on one very small slice of the overall pie of player value to be an actual, conscious strategy employed by a group of smart people whose one job is to make smart baseball decisions.
Well the reason for their doing that starts with a ‘t’ and ends with a ‘k’.
Can I buy a vowel?
I believe he is referring to the word “tank”.
“The Phillies have depth and talent [at first base].”
I almost passed out when I read that astoundingly improbable sequence of words.
Somewhat unrelated comment, but does anyone know what the Mariners are doing? I know they were bummed Ohtani chose the Angles but why on earth didn’t they snag a Duda, Bruce, or Morrison to fill their 1st base black hole? An AL Wild Card spot was won last year with 85 wins….
Brandon Guyer is actually better at being “Hit by pitch” than Rizzo and he’s second on the list since 2015 with 63.