2018 Positional Power Rankings: Right Field
Thank you, dear reader, for tuning into our continuing positional power rankings series. This episode concerns right field, and I’m your host, Sheryl Ring. Should it be that you reached right field in error and you wish to view other episodes with other (better) hosts, you may do so simply by selecting the appropriate position on the widget atop this article. If, on the other hand, you actually intended to choose this episode, I thank you heartily and promise you an adventure which should provide you with no ability whatsoever to stave off your eventual death, but which will at least give you something of nominal interest to do whilst awaiting its inevitable arrival.
With those words of introduction having been satisfied, to the graph:
You could say that, in recent years, we’ve seen a downturn in the quality of player being utilized in right field by your average major-league ballclub. Last year, in this very space, Neil Weinberg had four teams projected to eclipse three wins and five more projected to at least approximate three wins. As you can see, that isn’t the case this year. Last year, 14 teams were projected to surpass two wins in right field; this year, only 12 are. And then there are the Braves, whose ranking remains unchanged from last year. You can probably figure out why that is.
Despite what could possibly be interpreted as a low point for the major-league right fielder, there are signs of promise. For one, the top-three teams (the Nationals, Red Sox, Yankees) will all be starting players, who, for one reason or another, are standouts and stars worthy of that moniker. For another, unlike last year, there are reasons for optimism for many of the teams towards the middle and bottom of this list: either they are starting young players with yet-untapped upside (the Brewers, Mariners, Rangers, Tigers) or they have top prospects waiting in the wings with that sort of upside (the Mets, Orioles, Rays, Reds, Rockies, and White Sox).
As a consequence, there’s a lot more volatility here than you might expect. As you’ll see, while the top-three teams will probably see stability for years to come, there is likely to be pretty significant upheaval over the course of this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see five of the top 10 teams replaced by the time these rankings come out next year.
Sheryl Ring is a litigation attorney and General Counsel at Open Communities, a non-profit legal aid agency in the Chicago suburbs. You can reach her on twitter at @Ring_Sheryl. The opinions expressed here are solely the author's. This post is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal advice.
The Marlins’ second last place in this series, but only their first negative WAR projection. That has to count for something, right?
At the very least it counts, though I’m not sure it is for something.
Surely worth a gift basket.
2018 RF Rankings (Ring): “[I} promise you an adventure which should provide you with no ability whatsoever to stave off your eventual death”
2016 RF Rankings (Cistulli): “Whatever choices you’ve made in life, they’ve been poor enough to bring you here”
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-positional-power-rankings-right-field/
I originally clicked these to look up Nick Markakis’s projections; now I’m in an existential crisis
Let me say that I am very happy that right field is not bringing more PAs to Team Career World Series Home Run Leader Charlie Culberson.
Eeeexcellent.
List of teams that would rather have mookie betts over bryce harper:
I get the overall point, but in this case the Red Sox are ahead of the Nationals because the backups aren’t below replacement.
Betts is overrated
Bryce Harper is without a doubt a better hitter. By a pretty big margin.
Mookie Betts is a (much) more valuable baserunner.
Betts is in the discussion for the best overall fielder in baseball. Harper is not.
That’s a different-enough set of skill sets that there really isn’t a wrong answer there.
And if you want a tiebreaker, Betts is more reliable and typically healthier. Illustrating this entire point, Harper has had the best peak season between the two the past three years, but Betts has the next three highest WAR figures. Harper could still reach another level, Betts is safer, both are awesome, and that’s about all that need be said.
Couple of Angels notes: Kole has changed his batting stance a bit and is not such a pull hitter at least this spring, I do not see him regressing but may actually take a massive leap forward perhaps even a 4-5 win player (I give it a larger chance than regressing but not that much, he just too consistent in the player he’s been). As for Jabari his problem hasn’t really been that he just doesn’t hit enough, it’s great you can walk but can you give me a single when I need one. He has already started to make change albeit comically looking but if he can stop popping up (when making contact that’s what he’s done a lot) he can really become an a good hitter.
I was really surprised that the Marlins didn’t put in for Jabari Blash. He wouldn’t make the roster on most other teams, but he’s exactly the kind of flyer a terrible team needs to be taking.
I was quite confused to see your name, Sheryl, and no mention of the law or a rulebook.
The lack of legal jargon did not take away from this wonderful piece. I enjoyed it!
FWIW I disagree with the depth charts here. Kike Hernandez got basically all the RF starts Puig did not last year, and after that they used Bellinger a couple times. Thompson got one start, I believe
The Dodgers trust Hernandezs arm from RF more than the rest of their outfielders when Puig gets rest days. Absent an injury to Puig, or to another player who Hernandez is needed to sub for, I think you will only see Thompson and Roles as CF/LF players. Verdugo will get RF appearances if he’s with the team.
I think there’s almost no chance of Toles getting that much play in RF.
The Dodgers treat Puig like they believe his reverse platoon split is real. All his days off were against LHP with Kike as his sub, and they battedx him 5th vs RHP and 8th vs LHP for most of the season and into the playoffs.
Rumor has it Thompson will be traded, he’s out of options and the Dodgers’ outfield is too crowded.
David Dahl is only 23.
I, for one, hope Guyer starts getting hit like it’s 2016!
With regards to Mookie’s babip, which underlying metrics are you looking at to suggest his babip should have been higher?
Probably a combination of his speed and quality of contact. He definitely should have had a career low BABIP given his infield fly ball rate, but not THAT low.
And to that point, the most slam dunk evidence that Betts should have had a higher BABIP figure is that his previous MLB low was .310, and in the minors it was routinely .350+. He has an established BABIP profile that is above league average, so .268 screams outlier.
David Dahl is days away from turning 24. He’s not 27 – that’s Tauchman.
I understand how tough these article must be to write, because you have to know so much about every team. But the Jay Bruce section looked like the writer just looked at the top section of his Player Page, and wrote the section with no context.
“(The Mets) probably shouldn’t have trusted the breakout was real. Bruce remains a bad defender…”
Regarding the breakout, Bruce went into Spring Training last year talking about a revamped approach & swing. He looked at the data and went away from an all-fields approach, and focused on pulling fly balls. He had a solid breakout on the basis of that approach. At the end of a January Fangraphs article, Travis Sawchick wrote “Bruce’s new, more extreme approach could very well be repeatable. ”
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-bruce-is-fine-and-so-is-his-contract/
Regarding defense, Bruce was a solid defender through 2013. He hurt his knee (and I think he had surgery to fix it) in 2014 and his defense suffered. After going to the Mets, his knee wasn’t an issue anymore, and they worked on his positioning. During his Mets tenure, he put up 12 DRS and 6 UZR in RF. Mike Petriello has access to Statcast data, and he wrote that Bruce is an average defensive OF.
I realize that 2017 looks like an outlier without context, but there’s a reason he performed better than he had in the prior couple years.
Having said that, it does seem like an odd choice for them to sign him, based on their existing players. The money probably could have been better spent elsewhere.
I agree. The blurb on Bruce in this article is a complete contrast from the article written on Bruce a few months ago
I don’t think these articles are for revolutionary takes, and believing that Jay Bruce is going to do about what this projection says he is going to do is not a stretch. There are always “reasons” for an outlier, and they often end up being unrepeated anyway.
Typically a higher BABIP or HR/FB, which wasn’t the case for Bruce
“Harper’s also a surprisingly poor defender — at least by the metrics, which have returned negative figures three of the past four years.
He has not.
2014: 0 DRS, -1.1 UZR
2015: +9 DRS, -2.4 UZR
2016: -3 DRS, +8.7 UZR
2017: +4 DRS, +2.6 UZR
I think the author just used Fangraphs “Def” which is against average instead of replacement (and doesn’t adjust for position, so guys on the lower part of the defensive spectrum have a hard time even getting to 0). In reality, Harper’s defense has only been “surprisingly poor” if you thought be was going to be a great defender, which I guess some people did.
Not a great defender?!?! Have you missed him running into walls?
He has his plays. How many RF can turn a 9-6-3 DP? His arm is pretty amazing.
I agree that the author has used “Def”, but the actual difference is that it includes a positional adustment .
Yeah, it’s a strange comment. He is slightly below average w/r/t the defensive value of all players at all positions (“Def”), but in the realm of RF, he is indeed a little above average. That would seem to be the more relevant comparison.
All the stranger because there are references to UZR elsewhere.
If something were to happen to Mookie, wouldn’t Benintendi move to RF and JD Martinez would play LF (essentialy making JDM the backup for Mookie)? Not a good fielder, but JDM was okay afield as recently as 2015 and he has experience, and a bat that covers for his negative defensive value.
Brock Holt is the more likely answer.
Brock Holt is reportedly on the trade block, with the last roster spot going to him or Deven Marrero. If he stays, probably a combination of 1) Hanley at 1B, Brock Holt at LF, JDM at DH, and 2) Mitch Moreland at 1B, JDM at LF, Hanley at DH.
FWIW, Holt still has an option year left. (Yes, really!) I doubt he’ll be traded.
And I’m slightly mystified at the idea of Nunez as a backup RF. Granted, it’s not impossible, but it doesn’t seem to be what Alex Cora is thinking. Assuming they go with the Cora plan, JD should see about 15 games in LF (at home) and 15 in RF (away).
I’d agree that Holt is probably next in the depth chart.
I realize this is potentially a necessary evil/shortcoming, but have you ever compared historical projections to actuals for platoon situations? For example, regarding the Orioles RF situation, Valencia is projected to OPS more than 100 points lower than his career split vs. LHP (the situation you acknowledge he’ll be in). He’s actually been even better than that vs. lefties in the past couple seasons.
I’m not trying to argue that the Orioles should be significantly higher by any stretch. Just wondering if you’ve ever done a look-back on such situations to see if projections (which likely exclude R/L matchups in usage) systematically underrate well-constructed platoons.
David Palka is an I forget what kind of baseball player. Joe Palca is an NPR broadcaster.
judge has upside risk too.
Re: Chisenhall…”He still can’t hit lefties”
Over the past 4 seasons, Chis has a 104 wRC+ against lefties (298 PAs).
Which is basically the same as his wRC+ against righties in that period (107 wRC+ in 1285 PAs).
Castellanos might deserve more respect. He’s projected for the 4th highest SLG after Betts, Harper, and Judge, even with the mitigating factor of Comerica. I find it hard to be a believer, but that’s pretty good!
And he hit 26 HR last year, so 30 wouldn’t be a “huge breakout.”
I am absolutely not going to fight that Heredia, 4th outfielder, will be a super star this year or even all that fantasy-valuable considering that he has no power and baserunning that is best described as “goofy,” but Seattle made him play with a dislocated shoulder for most of the 2nd half, according to Shannon Drayer, and it shows. He ran a 97 wRC+ in the 1st half of 2017 and it plummeted to 60 wRC+ in the 2nd. Ichiro is/was the best, but I’d bet Guillermo generates positive WAR over Ichiro and holds a league average wRC+ this year. Boy I hope Seattle gets healthier this year.
I love that Scott van Slyke is projected for a WAR of -0.0, and Derek Dietrich for a WAR of 0.0.
If Betts were on the DL Bradley would move over to right and Benentendi to center.
Logically, yes. But, as above, I’d argue for Martinez to take on RF, even accounting for lousy fielding stats.
One factor in this is any preferences your star slugger has expressed before signing up. JD desperately wants to play in the OF, and you’d be risking a club house issue if you didn’t at least pay lip-service to that desire for the first couple of years.
Heaven forfend that Mookie should go awol for a large chunk of the year, but I don’t see that shift happening on even a medium term basis. It’d be far more likely (should Betts land on the 60 day) that the Sox would trade for another OF who can actually play RF at Fenway.
Besides, these are projections. It’s hard to make a projection when the error bar for plate appearances is +- 300 …
Can we we get a theoretical adjusted ranking if all teams were forced to start two women in the outfield?
As lacking in merit as that article was, this is uncalled for.
As a huge Tigers fan in 2007, I fondly recall Maybin’s homer off of Roger Clemens, not Randy Johnson. It appears that Maybin never faced The Big Unit, despite the overlap of their careers in ’08 and ’09 in the NL. Maybin batted in 8 games in 2008, never against Johnson’s Diamondbacks. Though he batted in 54 games in 2009, he never faced San Francisco. Johnson’s start as a Giant against the Marlins, on June 8, 2009 resulted in a 4-0 loss, but Maybin did not play.
Judge’s SLG projection is comically low
“Donnybrook” is my new favorite word.