2018 Positional Power Rankings: Third Base
The positional power rankings return this afternoon. If you’re unfamiliar with this series, Jeff Sullivan provided an introduction to it on Monday morning. Basically, this is FanGraphs’ means to previewing the season.
Catcher and first-base positional rankings are already complete and accessible via the widget above. Here, I’ll be examining third base.
Third basemen may be underrepresented in the Hall of Fame, but right now, the position is among the game’s strongest. Last year, five of the top-14 players in WAR — all with at least 5.5 — hailed from the hot corner, and over the past two years, the count is six of the top 12 and nine of the top 25. Manny Machado has since moved back to his natural position of shortstop, but Jose Ramirez has settled in, and Adrian Beltre, the lone player here assured of a berth in Cooperstown, is still going quite strong.
Based on our Depth Chart projections, which are very sensitive to playing-time estimates, six teams are forecast to get at least 4.0 WAR out of their third-base starters and backups, more than any other position; shortstops are next, with five. Twenty teams are forecast to get at least 2.0 WAR from their third-base groups, and even then, another five teams are in the 1.7 to 1.9 range, where the most minor breakout could push them above what’s generally the bar for a league-average player. Of the other positions, 21 teams project to get at least 2.0 WAR out of center field, and 20 out of first base.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Is Sano no longer believed to be a budding superstar?
That’s my impression of the sense among Twins fans. Partly because of the perception of attitude problems, partly because when he was signed the fact that he was able to hit the ball ridiculously hard meant more relative to his peers than it does now.
Will adjustments be made for the Dodgers now that JT broke his wrist?
They already baked in him missing 30-40 games based on his injury track record.
“5. Dodgers
…Unfortunately, on Monday, he suffered a nondisplaced fracture of his left wrist, and the early assumption is that he’ll be sidelined until May, which knocks the Dodgers down from the No. 4 ranking here but gives them a chance to show off their vaunted versatility.”
Did you even read the writing on the screen?
Upvotes for everyone because I’m an illiterate!
Frazier must be a wizard in the field at 3B to merit this rating. A lot of people think Mets got him for cheap, I think they’ll regret that deal within a few months of opening day. I actually hope I’m wrong though.
Awesome
“Bye bye, Balboni!”
Hey!
3rd base is deep, but man, it sure drops off with the last 8 or so teams.
On the Phillies, I’m surprised that the 3B situation is considered better than their Catcher situation. I’m a lot more optimistic that they’ll get 2 WAR from their catchers before their 3B.
The projections on Franco seem quite optimistic. 1.7 WAR would be a career high.
Matt Carpenter can play a respectable third base? Excuse me while I laugh. His defense over there has degraded drastically over the past couple of years. It’s one reason why the Cardinals want to keep him at 1B most of the time.
Not sure why Neil Walker keeps getting mentioned as a versatile player. Over 97% of his career innings are at second.
Sure, in theory he can play 1st and 3rd. But the limited defensive numbers we have for him at those two positions aren’t good. And it’s not clear that his bat plays at first.
Help me out with something. Shouldn’t fielding runs average out to zero? This averages out to about +2 per team.
Yeah, I’m biased, but it sure feels like Anthony Rendon gets no love. Why exactly is he predicted to regress significantly at age 27/28? I could understand (but disagree with) a forecast that says he’ll get hurt and won’t play a full season. I don’t understand one that says he’ll play a full season but not be as good as his established level of performance, even at peak age.