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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Atlanta’s rebuild hasn’t taken the same form as the sort performed by the Astros or Cubs. Indeed, on paper, there’s little evidence of a rebuild at all. Consider, by way of illustration, the end-of-year payroll figures for the club since their last winning season (2013).

Atlanta’s financial obligations in 2017 exceeded the totals of every prior year in franchise history. With the exception of Freddie Freeman (566 PA, 4.2 zWAR), though, none of the club’s largest commitments were expected to make a substantive difference on the field. The club’s record last year suggests that those expectations were well founded.

While the club’s process might have been different, Atlanta’s current roster nevertheless resembles the sort typically possessed by a team on the verge of ascent, populated largely by cost-controlled players with tremendous potential. If Dan Szymborski’s computer is any indication, the 2018 season could represent the one in which much of that potential translates to success. Ender Inciarte (677, 3.4) and Dansby Swanson (589, 2.3) are projected to record more wins than Shelby Miller (for whom they were acquired) has produced in his best season. Ozzie Albies (697, 3.3) and Ronald Acuña (594, 2.8), meanwhile, are forecast for just over six wins as a pair — this, despite having accumulated fewer than 300 major-league plate appearances between them (all belonging to Albies).

As Craig Edwards noted towards the end of last week, Atlanta might actually be well positioned right now to address their weaknesses by way of free agency. For the current roster, that would probably mean finding replacements for Nick Markakis (623, 0.5) in the outfield and the combination of Johan Camargo (468, 0.6) and Rio Ruiz (579, 1.2) at third.

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With Austin Jackson reaching a two-year deal on Monday to play center field for the Giants, another potential landing spot for Lorenzo Cain has evaporated.

Typically, in the free-agency era, impact up-the-middle talents like Cain are not available on January 23rd. A year ago to the day, all of Dave Cameron’s top-19 free agents had signed. As of this January 23rd, just eight of his top 20 have found a home.

Cain is coming off a four-win season. Even with his injury issues, he ranks 21st in position-player WAR since 2015 (13.1). J.D. Martinez, by comparison, ranks 42nd in WAR during that same period. Martinez reportedly has a five-year offer on the table, though. We’re unaware of such interest in Cain. There is a case to be made that Cain is the best remaining positional free agent available and that he’s quickly becoming the best bargain.

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People are always going to talk about baseball, even when there isn’t much baseball to talk about. Lately, people have been talking about the fact that there isn’t much baseball to talk about, and a recurring theme is that, in this current league environment, there just aren’t enough teams showing a commitment to winning. Now, that’s a belief supported by questionable evidence, and we can only truly evaluate this offseason after it’s finished, but let me say this right now for the Brewers — the Brewers are trying. Emboldened by the success of 2017, the Brewers don’t want to take a step back.

For some time, the team has been connected to Jake Arrieta. Recently, there have been reports the Brewers have made an offer to Yu Darvish. And now the Brewers have been strongly linked to Christian Yelich.

Source : Brewers have put together a trade offer & have shown strong interest Marlins OF Christian Yelich. Other teams remain in the mix.

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) January 23, 2018

We’re talking about one of the smaller-market clubs in the league, and the Brewers shouldn’t get too much credit for anything until something actually happens. For the time being, the Brewers’ roster remains the same. But from the sounds of things, a decision has been made that the time could be right. As the Brewers emerge from their own tear-down process, they’re ready now to bring in some stars.

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In a time that has been marked by the emergence of “super teams,” the Chicago Cubs of the last three years are one of the few clubs worthy of that description. They’ve averaged 97 regular-season wins, won two division titles, advanced to the National League Championship Series three times, and quite famously claimed a World Series title in 2016.

In that context, last season might be regarded as a disappointment. They won “only” 92 games during the regular season and then failed to get back to the World Series, losing in five games to the Dodgers. Much of the Cubs’ lack of success — which, admittedly, is a relative term in this case — has been attributed to a hangover effect from the long and satisfying World Series run. The Cubs were projected for 96 wins at the beginning of the 2017 season. Despite adding Jose Quintana at the deadline, the club finished four games under that mark.

As presently constructed, Chicago remains both excellent and flawed. Projected once again to cross the 90-win threshold, the Cubs’ roster nevertheless features some questions. Yu Darvish is the answer to the most prominent of those — namely, the club’s rotation depth.

Travis Sawchik argued three months ago that the Cubs are the best fit for the best pitcher on the market. Since that time, the team has signed Tyler Chatwood to fill a spot in the rotation. That seems promising.

At the same time, though, the Cardinals have made some moves on the margins and put themselves within striking distance. Entering Last season, for example, the Cubs featured a 10-game cushion over the Cardinals in our projections. As of today, however, Chicago’s projected lead over the St. Louis is just four games. The Cardinals got better, adding Marcell Ozuna to bolster their outfield.

As the forecasts suggest, the Cubs remain in a better position than the Cardinals. All things being equal, that’s good for Chicago. There are some warning signs, though.

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Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty didn’t have what you’d call a “flawless” introduction to the majors. While he had some luck missing bats over his roughly 20 innings, he allowed too many walks and really struggled once batters made contact. His 6.33 ERA was 50% worse than league average after accounting for park and league.

The 22-year-old did, however, do one thing right: he threw 87 excellent sliders. The sliders were so excellent, in fact, that Flaherty recorded better numbers on the pitch than anyone else in the second half — just better than the ones thrown by Clayton Kershaw and Garrett Richards. Maybe he can learn something from those other two and help parlay his excellent slider into more excellent outcomes.

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Here’s your daily reminder that a lot of free agents remain available. A lot!

There are probably a number of reasons behind the slowly developing market, and we’ve documented a number of them here at FanGraphs dot com.

Teams have devalued free agency more and more. Players are trending younger. The average age of a position player was 28.3 years last season, compared to 29.1 in 2007. As I noted in a piece for The Athletic over the weekend, pitchers and position players aged 30 and older accounted for 41.8% of WAR production from 2001 to -03 but just 30.6% over the most recent three seasons (2015 to -17). While Craig Edwards noted yesterday that hitters in their early 30s are generally still pretty good, hundreds of age-30 seasons — almost always free-agent seasons — have disappeared.

Teams have perhaps also learned to wait on free agents, driving prices down. The data supports that hypothesis: February free-agent signings have increased for three straight years and are likely to far exceed last year’s mark of 65 signings, the most in a decade.

Moreover, large-market teams are trying to stay under the tax threshold and reset their tax status, while more and more clubs are following Astros- and Cubs-like rebuilds and tearing rosters down NBA-style while collecting premium picks and clearing payroll space in the process.

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Last week, I took a look at the unenviable position in which the Major League Baseball Players Association currently finds itself — and, in particular, the relative lack of leverage it is likely to have over ownership during the next round of collective bargaining in 2021.

In addition to noting that there are few substantive concessions the union could offer ownership, my post last week also briefly discounted the extent to which the threat of a work stoppage would benefit the players. The point probably merited further discussion, however, so this post is intended to more comprehensively explain my thinking in that regard.

How a Work Stoppage Would Most Likely Arise

To begin, it’s important to understand how a work stoppage would likely unfold during the next round of collective bargaining. As I previously explained back in 2016, any labor stoppage in Major League Baseball would — at least for the foreseeable future — most likely come in the form of a lockout by ownership rather than a strike by the players.

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