2024 Mock Draft 1.0

Clubs have begun their pre-draft meetings, with some teams already about a week into theirs, while the last team to start them (Milwaukee, as far as I know) begins today. The number of people in draft meetings varies significantly from team to team. Some have more than 20 people in the room, others five or so. When any one person in the draft room learns something new, whether it’s from a scout buddy with another team or during a conversation with an agent or media person, the other folks in the room tend to also learn that thing. It is during this window that the dope starts to flow in a way that makes a more specific, full-round mock draft more feasible.

Below are notes I’ve compiled across the last couple of days from conversations with scouts, front office people, and agents. There isn’t intel on every single team or first round player out there in the ether right now. In spots where I’m making an educated guess based on a player’s fit with past team or decision-maker behavior, I try to make it obvious that’s what I’m doing. I let you know when rumors are coming from industry sources, while being vague enough to not burn a source. I also have some thoughts peppered in that aren’t specific to teams’ picks, but instead what the arc of the first round of this draft might look like based on the nature of this year’s class. For more info on the players below, head over to The Board for scouting reports, tool grades, and rankings.

1. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
There hasn’t been any industry buzz about the Guardians trying like hell to cut an under-slot deal up here as a way of maximizing what they can do at picks 36, 48, and beyond. The draft doesn’t have the depth to make that strategy very enticing. Instead, this seems to be about who Cleveland considers to be the best player. Since the Combine, word of mouth has surrounded Travis Bazzana, and either Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt, or both. There are folks who think the telegraphed interest in Wetherholt is a smokescreen, and those who believe that Condon’s more volatile hit tool isn’t a fit with Cleveland’s typical modus operandi, but nobody ever excludes Bazzana from their mix, which I think is telling. There are those who think that once Guardians people got around Bazzana, his makeup pushed the thing over the finish line.

I don’t think the Wetherholt buzz is a smokescreen. Remember that Cleveland, perhaps more than any other club, cares about a player’s underclass performance. If a guy has a great sophomore year, hits on the Cape, and then has a tough pre-draft spring, the Guards are more likely to stay on him and take him if he falls. That applies to the Chase DeLauter, Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, and Ethan Hankins picks. Wetherholt was my top player in the class coming into the spring. He had a hamstring injury this year and didn’t slug like he did as a sophomore when he returned. He’s a better defender than Bazzana by a not small amount. If you think his injury had a meaningful impact on his offensive output as I do (Wetherholt’s underlying data is barely worse than Condon’s and Bazzana’s), then he might just be the best guy.

What we don’t and can’t know is what the Guardians think of Condon’s defense. If they think he can play center field, then I’m more inclined to believe they’d draft him. If they think he’s a corner infielder, then I’m more inclined to believe there’s too much chase and strikeout risk for them to take him. The same applies to Jac Caglianone, though if you told me the Guardians decided that the power upside of either of those guys was worth the risk, it would strike me as out of character for the org but not crazy from a talent standpoint.

2. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Charlie Condon, 3B/CF/1B, Georgia
I haven’t spoken with anyone who has suggested the Reds would pass on Condon if he’s here. If Condon goes first, folks with teams have mentioned Cincinnati pivoting to either Chase Burns or Jac Caglianone.

3. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Aside from some mention of Jac Caglianone, folks are mostly putting the Rockies on college pitching here, with some specifically mentioning Burns but none singling out Hagen Smith. People with other clubs think Bill Schmidt might not have the luxury of waiting very long for this pick to reach Coors, and that that will influence what they do with this pick.

4. Oakland Athletics
Pick: Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M
This is where there starts to be more variability. I think the dream scenario for Oakland is for Condon or Wetherholt to go first, then for Cags and Burns to go two and three in some order, leaving Bazzana for the taking at pick four. I think they’d prefer Bazzana to Wetherholt if both were available here. Nick Kurtz has been mentioned, though I have other people telling me he’s falling. But the most frequent industry chatter has Braden Montgomery with Oakland. If there’s a trend in Oakland’s early selections, it’s less about a type of player they’re into and seemingly more about location, with a preference for guys in the Southwest or on the West Coast (Jacob Wilson, Max Muncy, Daniel Susac, Henry Bolte, Cole Miller, Denzel Clarke). Montgomery spent two years at Stanford and one at A&M.

5. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Jac Caglianone, 1B/RF, Florida
I don’t have much team-specific dope about the White Sox aside from some chatter that they’ve entertained the idea of an under-slot deal with Konnor Griffin. In this scenario, Caglianone is here and presents franchise-altering upside for an org that could really use it. The optics of taking maybe the most famous guy in the draft when it’s also justifiable based on his talent might quell some of the angst around the ugliness of their rebuild.

6. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Perhaps the most consistent rumor I’ve heard is that Kansas City likes Smith and high school shortstop Bryce Rainer.

7. St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (CA)
In this scenario, JJ Wetherholt is just sitting there, which might be too tempting for the Cardinals to pass up. Names people have put with St. Louis include Nick Kurtz, Chase Burns (does he have a home between pick no. 3 and here?), and Rainer. Recall that Masyn Winn was also a two-way prospect with a huge arm and that has worked out. I don’t think Konnor Griffin is in play here at all.

8. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia
I watched Wetherholt go into the Angels’ suite for a meeting at the Combine and I don’t think you take that meeting if you’re Wetherholt unless there’s a chance you’re going to fall this far. This would fit the Angels’ express lane tendencies, as Wetherholt is pretty likely to move fast. Pick eight is also the first place where Cam Caminiti’s name has been mentioned, but you’d better really, really like the high school pitcher you’re taking over the hitters still available here.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Rival clubs have the Pirates on college hitting here because we’re getting to the point where the current regime has to start winning, and they need to improve the lineup around all of their young pitching. Cam Smith would be good value here, but he needs a swing change to get to his power and the Pirates haven’t been able to help Ke’Bryan Hayes do that. My sources have specifically mentioned Kurtz with Pittsburgh. He’d be a clean, quick-moving fit given their big league needs and his power is already actualized.

10. Washington Nationals
Pick: Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep (MS)
If we’re picking potential landing spots for Griffin, a toolsy high schooler with strikeout risk, it’s the team that recently drafted Elijah Green and Brady House. But Washington has a new scouting director (Danny Haas, formerly of the Diamondbacks), so this might depend on whether Haas or Mike Rizzo is making the pick.

This next area of the draft is where there’s generally considered to be a talent drop-off. Teams that pick in the early part of a new talent tier have more incentive to cut an under-slot deal or find sanctuary in a safer college player. In this draft, that’s going to be college hitters. I want to point out that several of the next half dozen teams are ones that tend to care a lot about contact skills. Because Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore didn’t perform especially well in that regard, he may be a candidate to slide deeper than teams expect.

11. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Konnor Griffin and Cam Caminiti have been mentioned here, and there are four-corners area scouts who think Detroit is the favorite to take the latter. Aside from Jackson Jobe, the Tigers have tended to take college hitters who’ve performed at Power Five Conferences. As teams have gathered for meetings, Waldschmidt is the name that keeps coming up as one of a handful of players who seem poised to go higher than anticipated because his hit data is strong and he also has big physical tools.

12. Boston Red Sox
Pick: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State
There is no consensus as to what Boston will do here. I’ve spoken with people who think Craig Breslow’s background in pitching dev will push the org in that direction, but Trey Yesavage and one or two of the high school pitchers are the only feasible options here, and if you’re good at pitching dev you don’t have to use first round resources on one.

13. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
I’ve had scouts mention high school lefties Caminiti and Kash Mayfield here, and I considered mocking Carson Benge here based on San Francisco’s patterns of behavior because, like Reggie Crawford and Bryce Eldridge before him, he’s a two-way player who might have another gear once he focuses on one thing. I also wonder if Theo Gillen is a fit here because the Giants take players who end up falling for non-talent reasons (Crawford had TJ, Walker Martin wasn’t a showcase fixture, Carson Whisenhunt was suspended, etc.). Gillen hasn’t been able to throw well since a labrum injury, but he might be the best high school hitter in this class (I think he is).

14. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
You could put any of the college hitters who performed from a bat-to-ball standpoint here. Moore only hit .255 this year, but his underlying data is great and indicates he was the victim of bad luck. Like Matt Shaw last year, Moore isn’t a lock to stay at his current position because of a mediocre arm.

15. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
This sounds like it might be Yesavage’s absolute floor. The Mariners were on him coming out of high school.

16. Miami Marlins
Pick: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
This would be a great value pick at this spot, and unlike a lot of other “safe” college hitters, Smith has some swing optimization stuff to work on. His timeline also fits better with the Marlins’ window of contention than the super polished college bats.

17. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
The Brewers aren’t scared off by a lack of prototypical size (Eric Brown Jr., Robert Moore, Dylan O’Rae, etc.), which is the only thing King lacks. Milwaukee has also been more open to letting guys try to move up the defensive spectrum, which would ideally happen for King, who played mostly third base at Wake. This is the first spot Kaelen Culpepper’s name has surfaced. Carson Benge has also been mentioned here and at the next two picks.

18. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
I have Moore’s slide stopping here because, counterintuitive though it may be, the Rays tend to take toolsy college guys with suspect hit tools, like Moore. Carson Benge has also been mentioned here.

19. New York Mets
Pick: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
I suppose we’re getting into the area where some of the other top-tier high school pitchers are in play, but the tendency of David Stearns and co. in Milwaukee was to take guys who make contact like Benge does.

This next third of the first round is where we should start seeing a ton of high school pitchers get drafted. Matching pitchers with potential teams at this stage is more about pattern recognition than substantive dope.

20. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS (LA)
If any of the hitters who I have mocked in the last 10 picks get here, I feel like they’d be in play. Toronto’s pitcher draftees tend to all have excellent breaking ball quality and Schmidt’s curveball may be the best in the draft. High school righty Ryan Sloan also has a great slider and a much lower release than Schmidt.

21. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Theo Gillen, 2B/CF, Westlake HS (TX)
Gillen might be the best high school hitter in this entire class, but injuries leave him poised to move from shortstop to either second base or center field in pro ball. Minnesota has been happy to scoop up hitters with health issues each of the last two drafts.

22. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Here begins the three- or four-team cluster of clubs that are really, really good at developing pitchers. Brecht has monster stuff and a huge frame; he’s basically the pitching version of Caglianone in this class. If any of the Orioles, Braves, Dodgers, or Yankees get their hands on him, they might turn him into a monster.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Kellon Lindsey, SS/CF, Hardee HS (FL)
There are also some prep arms who check the Dodgers’ usual boxes (undersized, athletic dudes with fastball ride and a good breaking ball) like Braylon Doughty and perhaps Ryan Sloan, but Lindsey’s upside is too big to let him slide any further, especially with San Diego lurking a few picks behind and looking for a Trea Turner mulligan.

24. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS (CA)
Like the Dodgers, the Braves tend to care about fastball ride and breaking ball quality more than size and projectability. Other clubs think they’re going to take a pitcher here, with Doughty and Ryan Sloan the ones who feel the most like the Braves. This would also be an interesting spot to take Vance Honeycutt and see if you can rework his swing. Idaho high schooler Dax Whitney shares pitch characteristics with Doughty, and there was buzz late last night that Whitney might have a deal in hand with someone.

25. San Diego Padres
Pick: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (OK)
Rival clubs have tended to put the Padres on high school guys. Kellon Lindsey, Mayfield, and William Schmidt have all been mentioned.

26. New York Yankees
Pick: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS (IL)
I only have one rumor associated with the Yankees and it centers around Sloan. Sloan’s arm slot creates somewhat lateral action on his stuff, but they’ve had success developing guys like Michael King for whom that is also true.

27. Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC)
Teams have heard that the Phillies are considering Morlando, as well as the projectable flavor of high schooler pitchers who are poised to go in this range (Kash Mayfield, William Schmidt, Owen Hall, Dasan Hill).

28. Houston Astros
Pick: Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS (NE)
Like the Rays, the Astros have an analytical reputation but tend to draft for tools more than statistical performance, and Lewis has those. As I began sourcing on these picks later in the round, the Lewis/Astros pairing was the first that emerged.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State
I have no specific dope here but other teams expect the D-backs, who have multiple comp pics, to select a couple different types of players the same way they did with their excellent 2019 class.

30. Texas Rangers
Pick: Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot (ID)
This is the other club that has been mentioned as I’ve kicked the tires on the rumor that Whitney has a deal in hand.