With the 2026 season in the books and a narrow window of transaction time upon us before an inevitable lockout, it’s time to start a new player evaluation cycle at FanGraphs. This includes 30 farm system deep dives, and updates to next year’s domestic draft and international amateur scouting reports on the site. But first, as has become tradition, it’s time to examine the notable pro players in Asia. Every offseason there are several fellows who are either native Asian players attempting to make a transition to MLB, or former MLB-affiliated players who are attempting to come back after some time abroad. Players in both camps tend to make a meaningful impact on the following MLB season, be it Munetaka Murakami, Foster Griffin, Kazuma Okamoto, Robert Suarez, or Drew Anderson. My goal at the start of every offseason is to give readers a thorough report on the players whose matriculation is imminent, as well a spyglass look at who lies over the horizon.
In this piece I’ll have the players clustered into buckets dictated by their anticipated arrival and write a bit about them in each section, but my preferential list of all the players and their full scouting reports are over on The Board. You should open The Board (seriously) in a new tab and traffic back and forth between it and this article. Also, remember we now have NPB and KBO leaderboards on the site, which I used heavily (along with DeltaGraphs and Yakyu Cosmopolitan) to sift through statistics and flag players to ask my sources about and/or perform my own visual scouting assessment via Synergy or TruMedia, whatever I can get my hands on. To give readers as thorough an understanding as possible, I’ve got video linked and embedded throughout this post for the players I think are most visually striking. Read the rest of this entry »
My update to Asian Pro players is now live on the board. The accompanying piece is with editing and I will link to it when it's published.
Eric Longenhagen
Okay, let's get to your questions.
Bud Smith
What's the furthest you've ever bumped up a prospect after reevaluating? And what's the furthest someone has dropped?
Eric Longenhagen
The college arms who pop in a big way, like Will Warren and Cam Schlittler, essentially go from nothing to top 100 guys pretty fast.
Eric Longenhagen
Then you have the big money teenagers who you learn pretty quickly are bad, like Roderick Arias.
Resolution
Now that a full season and fall/winter leagues have occurred, have you noticed anything different with the Rockies at all? Could be anything- hitting/pitching approaches, technology, just more scouts/staff?
I think the braintrust has been around more. Depo, Byrnes, Tanous… you see them around. Idk if there's anything else tangible that I've noticed but I'm sure there are things I'm just spacing on.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
Did you see any of Tekoah Roby in the AFL? What's his outlook in '27?
Eric Longenhagen
Roby is one of the guys who I have yet to see. Will get him this weekend, though.
Eric Longenhagen
The chatter has been positive. Would anticipate he's a '27 graduate.
I do, but I'm not convinced he's an average everyday player, though I know scouts who are, including the one who drove the bus on acquiring him in that deal. He can play defense, he's strong. I think he's gonna K a lot.
wschuyle
Noticed you and BG seem to view Dax Kilby's ability to stay at SS differently. When that happens for scouts is it typically different evaluation on their skills or a different emphasis on which skills are most important for given position (say arm for a SS).
Eric Longenhagen
I think it's "bias on look", if I see Kilby airmail a couple of throws in the 6 games I see, I'm gonna worry he can't play there. If Brendan doesn't see that, he probably won't. Teruaki Sato, video when watched in reverse chronological order, shows him airmailing several throws within the first 20 attempts, so we're on the same page there. Some of it is I am meaner/more miserly than Brendan, who wants to give the players the benefit of the doubt and time to develop.
Eric Longenhagen
I think defense is more of an inherent thing.
Broken Bat
Eric, thanks for both your #1. Passion #2. Dedication, to providing honest feedback in regards to these many prospects. It’s understandable there will be both hit and misses, but you sure seem to get a lot more accurate than some of the other forecasters. Nice job.
Eric Longenhagen
Hey thanks, it feels good to have done this long enough to be comfortable being wrong, and to not get defensive when I am. The couple of studies that have been done (Lindbergh sends me one every now and then) tend to agree with you.
Eric Longenhagen
At least, I think I use the entire scouting scale in a way that is most useful.
muenstertruck
General thoughts on the 2027 draft class? Last I read, the Guardians have 6 picks in the first ~100. Please remember that I will cling to your response as a beacon of hope as the lockout kicks in and the temperatures drop.
Eric Longenhagen
I like the top 10 and think that group is deeper than usual. Didn't love the HS guys during the summer and think the overall depth is below average. Heavy on college arms, that group tends to have some injury attrition during the spring.
Schu1719
Do you have a general outline & timeline of what we can look forward to this offseason with BG on board for a full offseason? Status quo/same stuff be done sooner/new content
Eric Longenhagen
We have some technical tweaks to go over with Meg and Sean regarding possible data viz and changes to the system overview section, Once that stuff is cleared will be rolling at a little better pace than before. Brendan already has a couple of his lists mostly done.
Eric Longenhagen
I have all this data and wanna have an accordion feature like we do on the top 100, but instead of the distribution graphs, I want it to be data viz spider graphs or even just a year-to-year breakdown of a few key metrics for these guys.
Eric Longenhagen
Some of that might be easy for Sean to do, and some might be harder.
Jeremy Fox
Is every prospect who vaguely resembles Miz (*cough* Susana *cough*) now overrated, at least by fans?
Eric Longenhagen
Mmmm kinda? Guys who throw hard and that's it do not equal Miz. Susana doesn't have nearly the same kind of fluidity, he's more like Duran to me.
Eric Longenhagen
It's tough because, who resembles Miz?
Eric Longenhagen
On some level, being a unicorn has its own value, but sometimes that's Miz, and sometimes that's Altuve.
Broken Bat
Once the prospects get called up and get an opportunity, but don’t run with it right away, and struggle, what do you view as a potential alarm? Chase, swing and miss. Hard hit, ground balls- launch angle, low walk rate, etc. What skill say in following year after Cup of Coffee can get better just with getting older and adding experience for position players.
Eric Longenhagen
I try not to get too over my skis in either direction. Trout, Judge, Utley… there are several HoF caliber players who initial taste was sour. I do know there are people in the game who think if you don't perform or show improvement during your first six or eight weeks, that they think you're cooked. I think there are too many examples of players improving (period, sometimes that means going from good to great, sometimes from fringe-y to decent) to say that's true.
rickdugo3000
what's preventing franklin primera from being turbo elite? obviously the models must love a 19 yo catcher with a .367/.499/.581 and 48:36 bb:k, who kept it up in A ball. Is this a deeper question about stats v scouting? Like why is this not surefire t50 with a great chance to be t10 by midseason?
Eric Longenhagen
physically mature kid with basically no projection.
Definitely Not an AI Bot
How does one value a prospect who will definitely make the big leagues and also definitely have a ceiling as a UT/RP? Big leaguers have value, but…?
Eric Longenhagen
Are you talking about in fantasy? You probably shouldn't value that guy. Here we use grades, where a 45 is like a premium utility man, lefty platoon bat, or set-up man, 40 is more like a true reserve who's on the roster because you need a second shortstop or a guy who takes at-bats against righties, a more limited role, middle reliever. We value them but more for the role rather than war production, since war production is a counting stat that true everyday players are compared to one another via
kbert
Is the International Players tab of The Board getting an update soon?
The Cardinals need to fill holes at CF and 3B by the start of 2028. Will players already in their system be the answers at one or both spots, or do you think they will need to go outside the organization to meaningfully improve at either spot?
Eric Longenhagen
I would guess they keep things in-house at 3B and see what a combo of Gorman/Fermin/Saggese, etc can do. They have depth there. In CF they don't. Vic Scott is playing in winter ball, haven't seen enough of him to know if he' looks better. CF FA market is tough, they could always trade a catcher for a 3B/CF but idk which org has a CF surplus off the top of my head. Buxton for a catcher with Jeffers out the door in MIN?
Justin
Do you ever talk to cistuli
Eric Longenhagen
Yes, but his cell phone plan is weird now that he lives in Canada.
Eric Longenhagen
He's good, he says. "Uh… sure, you can say hello for me."
tdmoc
How's Ike Irish looked this fall? In my brief looks it was a lot of groundballs but also fly balls smoked to left center
Eric Longenhagen
Ditto. Good corner platoon bat, nice piece. Needs a Manny Margot type caddy as a RH/defense first pairing.
mdust10
How do you view 1B shaking out for the Brewers assuming Bauers is gone? Could one or both of Luke Adams and Blake Burke be a ready made solution?
Eric Longenhagen
I think those are both interesting in-house options along with Vaughn . Some 1B reps for Contreras also makes sense.
Jeremy Fox
The Brewers seem to be very good at helping their prospects become the best versions of themselves, rather than drafting and developing for lift-and-pull hitters or max velo pitchers. How much do orgs vary in terms of how much they seek to draft and develop the most valuable traits (pull-side power; velo) vs. how much they just try to draft players who are good at some things and can get better at other things?
Eric Longenhagen
Huge differences. There are teams who draft pitchability guys and then develop velo (Cleveland, New York) and there are orgs who draft good hitters and try to make them strong (Milwaukee, Tampa) and there are teams who are willing to consider moving guys up the defensive spectrum (Sacramento, Detroit) because they had good prior reports on players at those positions.
beanbong
out of the braves system, who's got a better chance of hitting their way up in the next 2 seasons: Hartman or Southisene? Hartman seems like the higher ceiling because of the power-speed combo, but Southisene is probably a major league hitter and up-the-middle defender, even if it's 2B and a 90 wRC+
Eric Longenhagen
I like Southisense's feel to hit more. DOn't think he's an INF tho
Jeremy Fox
Can you give us a preview of what you're thinking of writing about during the apparently-inevitable lockout? Any ideas for new projects you're thinking of pursuing?
Eric Longenhagen
Well the minor league stuff will be happening more or less like normal, so there's that. I wanna write about autograph culture and meiji university and do more self-evaluation type stuff that is slightly different than the How's My Driving pieces.
Jonathan Adelman
Jake Bloss' velo had been down in the AFL but has started to tick back up. How dependant will his success be on getting back to the late summer velo he teased before the teres major injury?
Eric Longenhagen
I'm less concerned about his velo and more about his command. His fastball rides enough that if it's "only" sitting 94-96 but located well, it'll play.
Lotta Samil Serrano questions in chat today. De Los Santos is really athletic and projectable, also very chase prone and is gonna K a lot. Really exciting player with some bust risk because of the Ks. Serrano had a great DSL season, data looks awesome. Definitely has some misreads in here, he has a 123 max exit that simply isn't real. COvers the inner half really well, think he's a nice hit-tool oriented prospect whose swing has lovely natural loft. Not overly physical, could break out if he can add muscle without getting stiff. Already squaring it up consistently. Probably the equivalent of a first round HS prospect.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Bodine block Flewelling as catcher of the future for the Rays? Or is Flewelling too raw to even be in that conversation?
Eric Longenhagen
The latter, for now. There's a chance Bodine entrenches himself so much that the Rays just decide to make Flewelling into Soderstrom.
Jonathan Adelman
Have you ever been tempted to buy baseball cards of prospects you think that market is undervaluing? Or does it seem like a money pit even for knowledgeable insiders?
Eric Longenhagen
Nah. I have been tempted to try to move the market on a lie for Machiavellian funsies. The only cards i collect are to fill out my MLB Showdown collection and dual sport athletes. I have some cool Brian Jordan/Deion Sanders stuff and whatnot.
Of arms yet to debut, does S Hernandez, R Sloan, J Susana, L Doyle and Zazueta seem like an agreeable top 5? Maybe J Flora is next in line to join that group?
Eric Longenhagen
Healthy Thomas White at least belongs next to Doyle. I'd take Gage Wood, Anthony Eyanson, and Flora over Zazueta, who doesn't have a good breaking ball.
Jonathan Adelman
The new International board is awesome, and it reminds me of Roki Sasaki and what an interesting odyssey his career has been so far. What FV would you give Sasaki right now?
Eric Longenhagen
45+
Sam
Are you seeing Kyle DeBarge making adjustments that might help him make enough contact to have a chance at an everyday role, or does this feel more like taking advantage of less refined pitching?
Eric Longenhagen
The latter, but he's a big leaguer. Good utility guy, A bit less physical than Ezequiel Duran but could play that kind of role.
You mean striking out 25% of the time and slugging under .400 while everyone glazes him?
Eric Longenhagen
Give it another year, I can see why you're making the comp. I think Brito does a little more at 2B and a little less in CF (Ewing is good btw, I'm just joshing)
Definitely Not an AI Bot
Re: the college arms and others who pop, what about them makes them pop to evaluators? Is there something subsurface that doesn't appear until they hit the minors? Or is it minor league dev changing something to unlock a hidden talent? Seems like some orgs routinely add a few mph to guys' fastballs pretty quickly.
Eric Longenhagen
Yes. This is where some of the strength and flexibility testing comes into play. There are physical traits that you can measure when you get your hands on the player at your facility that help you understand the players capacity for strength, or learn what their deficiencies are so you know what to work on after you draft them. Like Schlittler the Yankees might have known he's so underdeveloped, but has huge capacity, so let's take this human construction crane and see what happens….
Eric Longenhagen
Sometimes it has nothing to do with sports science and is just intel from your people who know the college pitching coach sucks, or whatever. But the space in which people are evaluating has less to do with the tool grades (which are more measurable now than ever) and more with the aptitude/athleticism/secondary traits that might indicate the baseball skills can improve.
eccentricatlfan
Admittedly more of a post-prospects question, but curious about your thoughts on Jack Perkins and if you think about him sticking as a starter (or at least away from the bandbox he’s called home). Been looking into him for a good bit (particularly as a four-seam/sinker tunneling candidate like the Rays implemented a lot this past season), but curious if your thoughts have changed any on him.
Eric Longenhagen
I can see why they want him to start because of his build and delivery, but to me his command has always been so bad that I thought it was a long shot.
nebravesfan33
Any update on Jan 15th International Signing Day? I think Braves fans will fall apart if Alfredo Sena isn't part of the organization on 1/15/2027.
Eric Longenhagen
From what I've heard it will still happen but it might not happen in Januar. I think MLB would love to push it another six months. It will mean that since the pandemic they've pushed it a year.
sammysamsam
Based on whats going on in the AFL, how does Patrick Reilly compare to the other intriguing Os upper minors arms (Dzierwa, Hunter, Gongora, Forrett, etc)
If defense is more of an inherent thing, who would the Dodgers prefer play an inning in LF in a game today, Josue De Paula or Eric Longenhagen?
Eric Longenhagen
Today? JDP. In 2010? Bro, I'm playing CF.
kbert
Is Hyun Min Ahn 안현민 on your radar at all? Was a name I was expecting to see on the Board based on stats alone, but I don't have much more context there.
Eric Longenhagen
He's in the piece that should be published today. Actually looking at Slack, Martell has notes for me I need to fix some stuff.
Eric Longenhagen
Gimme like 1 minute
Eric Longenhagen
Back
mainesox
Did you get an opportunity to watch either of the Red Sox' top two draft picks play this season (Schaffner and Hull) and do you have any general thoughts on either of them?
Eric Longenhagen
Yes, I like Schaffner (Small school cold weather background, natural feel to hit, non-zero shot to stay at shortstop) and I'm not so hot for Hull whose swing I think is too long for him to hit. I'll be looking for an overhaul this spring.
bubbles
Looking at Asian player updates, I don't see Shoki Oda. Do you think there is realistically no chance he comes straight to the US?
Eric Longenhagen
It's just an asian pro player update. Oda is an amateur. He's likely coming, I would expect he signs in 2027, whenever the signing period actually begins. I wrote more about him in the piece that has yet to publish. He'd be a first round pick if he were a HS pitcher here.
Roby left the AFL didn't he? At least The Cardinal Nation reported that maybe a week plus ago. They just wanted him to get some game innings in and a limited amount with a plan of him heading home early
Eric Longenhagen
I thought he was on the fall stars roster and assumed i had just been missing him over and over
Jeremy Fox
Another Miz-inspired question: what's the advantage of a short stride, if any? Not that Miz-level extension would work for every pitcher, obviously. But watching Miz got me wondering if the short striders of the world are just leaving a lot of meat on the bone in terms of velo, and/or putting extra stress on their arms to achieve high velo. Or am I wrong and short striders as a group tend to gain compensating benefits (maybe command?)
Eric Longenhagen
A shorter stride might change the angle of the pitch or allow it more distance to break in a way that's beneficial.
Eric Longenhagen
Boston shortened Crochet's stride.
Eric Longenhagen
Ok ya'll. Lemme make sure I'm interfacing with Matt as soon as he needs me to. I'm gonna split. Please consume my international pro update this weekend, it's a doozy. Talk to you next week
Happy Friday, party people. We're slated to get something like 2-to-3 inches of rain this weekend in Phoenix and it's pouring at the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound right already. Looking forward to a weekend of Emo/Shoegaze writing like when I was in PA. For now, we chat.
I don't believe so. Still projects as a good everyday infielder, either SS or 3B, who's top 20 at his position. Good get for them. Folks can watch him most days playing in LIDOM for Gigantes. He and Roldy Brito are often in the starting lineup.
Brian Reinhart
Candy corn?
Eric Longenhagen
I'll eat it. It's not high on my pref list but I'm always curious enough to try it again. Especially the pumpkins.
Daniel
Given the Yankees aging core and the likelihood that Kilby isn’t a SS long term, do you see him being a guy they push pretty aggressively provided he continues to hit as he moves up?
Eric Longenhagen
I think so, it's reasonable to expect him to be promoted at roughly the same pace Lombard was if he keeps hitting. I think them sending him here after he barely played this year was fairly aggressive and he's thrived. Wouldn't chock me if he starts at Hudson Valley.
hankirons
As a Mets fan, what happened to Jacob Reimer this year? Between he and Clifford it feels like the corner bats we thought were close maybe aren't coming at all. Or is that too harsh?
Eric Longenhagen
Clifford was always going to be flawed in a way that left you disappointed, assuming you bought into peak expectations 2-ish years ago. His reasonable outcome was always more of a platoon bat. Reimer I was in on and remain on to a degree. He's better than his injury-altered 2026 statline, not just betting that he'll be better when healthy but looking at his underlying data, which is more favorable than his surface output…
Eric Longenhagen
The problem with Reimer is he's maxed out, tightly wound corner guy. If he's gonna K a quarter of the time and have roughly average power, does that really play in a meaningful way? I think it plays some, but not as a top 20 player at 1B if he ends up there alone.
nuxie
Position changes- rainel to third is that a real thing- Jesus made where does he play? Seems odd that he only played ss this year- seems like they’re committed to Pratt at short
Eric Longenhagen
I guess I'd wanna see Rainiel play third base before declaring yes or no. He's a heavier kid but built a lot like Max Muncy, who has been able to do it well enough to stay at 3B and moonlight at 2B for a while. I think a position change is what gets his bat in the lineup soonest because he otherwise still has so much work to do as a catcher.
Eric Longenhagen
Made I agree they should have (or at least should in LIDOM) see what happens with him at 3B. Pratt is the better defender. Joey Ortiz and David Hamilton should not be blocking a potential 30-homer 3B.
ajleff
Prediction for where Skubal lands?
Eric Longenhagen
I'll go off the board a bit and say Braves
Eric Longenhagen
They have a lot of money coming off the books in the next few years, Acuna and Sale and Profar, Albies, Suarez… it adds up. Kinda wonder if there's a Ketel/Acuna change of scenery trade in here somewhere? One more year of Albies makes that less a fit.
nuxie
Any names popping up from either instructs or the bridge league?
Eric Longenhagen
Instructs ended a couple weeks ago. Most of the good players are guys you already know. I thought Angeibel Gomez looked good, the Giants infielders, Grindlinger, Comeau… You should take a peek at my pieces from that window of time I wrote a ton as it was going on.
ajleff
Prediction for the largest change to MiLB/draft/amateur to come out of the lockout?
Eric Longenhagen
I think we will get an agreement before that stuff is ironed out. They'll say "here's the deal, let's play baseball." and then will hammer out draft/int'l stuff as an afterthought in the weeks following.
Domingo Ayala
Does John Peck have starting shortstop upside? He kind of came out of nowhere but he has some nice underlying numbers, including his player comps on Savant.
Eric Longenhagen
I like him but consider him more of a good utility type rather than a first division regular.
tdmoc
does Vance Honeycutt make the main list next year? OPS and EVs look pretty, but he's still K-ing ~30% with "empty" (non-competitive) walks
Eric Longenhagen
Back on there. The defense will allow him to play a role. Crushed for me yesterday, hit a ball 108 to dead CF. I agree the K's are too scary to project him as a consistent 2+ WAR guy but he'll play a role.
richwp01
" Bonemer entered the AFL season as the one of this group I was worried I’d come away feeling more skeptical about because of how much whiffing he did during the regular season. Instead, I think his power is weaponized by sufficient barrel feel. He is likely to be a left field-only defender in the big leagues, but he could have output similar to Teoscar Hernández." His arm not strong enough for RF? Is he just in center to have easier reads?
Eric Longenhagen
Not a natural thrower from the OF whatsoever.
thundacat707
Does Seaver King start next season in the MLB? What are your thoughts on his ceiling?
Eric Longenhagen
I think Washington will look to maximize years of control there. I was super high on King coming out of college, became pretty skeptical at the end of 2025 because he had zero ability to pull the ball (I'm not a "pull everything!" guy but I do think it's scary when you can't do it at all) and was really shaky on defense. He had an awesome season, and needs a re-eval from scratch this list cycle. Washington's new regime absolutely made their hitters better right away and I'm willing to bet he's a true arrow up guy rather than a product of this year's wacky minor league offensive environment.
Eric Longenhagen
Wildly close lightning strikes here, like cartoon sound effect lightning.
You should consider it a lateral move I guess, id have to know way more about your league and roster to give you a cogent answer.
Pirates Hurdles
I'm curious how to best deal with a bad year of production for younger prospect bats – guys like Jansel Luis or Gabriel Rodriguez? How do you weight production on toolsy guys in full season ball?
Eric Longenhagen
It's tough. You look for reasons to give them the benefit of the doubt. Were they young for the level, were they injured, does the surface production deviate from the underlying data in any way?
abravesfan25
ATL farmhands Owen Carey and/or Isaiah Drake make any notable impressions during in-person looks in the AFL?
Eric Longenhagen
Drake can really really run, he has a RB's physicality. Can he hit enough to be anything more than a specialist? He has an interesting data profile (huge launch, roughly average contact) but visually his feel to his is crude. Carey is on time to pull, probably LF only defender (30 arm), like him as an eventual corner platoon bat, though it'll depend on how strong he gets. They're both prospects, but not likely impact guys.
doughboy
i know this is likely the million dollar question, but is Bryce Rainer swing something that can be fixable in offseason to return to hos rookie season contact rates?
Eric Longenhagen
I don't think it's something you actively tinker with yet, I think he might shorten up naturally as he deals with failure and is forced to adjust.
metties
How do you balance (your time, focus, etc.) making sure you nail your evals on top 100 dudes with having 1200+ reports on prospects?
Eric Longenhagen
It's the toughest thing, honestly. Like yesterday I went to Peoria with Laurila. We went earlier than I would have on my own because Laurila interviews players, and that happens well before the game. Then it's nearly impossible to focused on writing in the press box because people in there wanna socialize (which I get), then Patrick Reilly was useful to see for four innings in perfect weather, then nobody else threw strikes and we had like 24 combined walks. I'd have rather been doing anything but watching three pitchers be required to finish an inning. But once your'e in the bowl with the scouts it's kind of a faux pas to leave early, they don't know you're going back to the box to do more work. Anyway, yes this part of it has been the toughest thing for me to wrangle in ten years of doing this. Marrying the depth I'm capable of and the depth that is a differentiator for us as a site (along with the writing quality imo) with the broad, Taylor Swift type tastes of the reading and listening audience that wants everything done right now and could care less about the 40s and 35+ guys.
rfilla
For a dollar: Which outfielder in the Cardinals system will have the highest peak season WAR? Walker, Baez, Peete, Frias, Condon?
Eric Longenhagen
I think Frias.
apeloton
Chase Harlan is down as a guy you want to see more of this fall – do you have any specifics you want to assess with him or more just a general get eyes on?
Eric Longenhagen
I just want more looks at him playing defense to feel better about where we project him. The league average wRC+ at 3B this year was 98. At 1B it was 111. Where he plays defense really matters to how he stacks among his peers.
abravesfan25
Congrats to the Brewers! Do you think they'll realize more out of their side of the Peralta trade (Sproat, Jett Williams) in 2027, or is that shaping up as a lose-lose trade?
Eric Longenhagen
I still think Sproat will be good. Jett will be a role-player.
triplesandtea
Any chance we get another visual scouting explanation series? Or perhaps a few ABs/plays from one player where you break down scouting them from the basics (what do you see mechanically) to the more advanced?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah I want to do a video podcast series that takes you through the list-making processes.
InsertWittyNameHere
Any flawed prospect that should consider switching to football to replace Tanner McKee? Or play O-line? Or call plays?
Eric Longenhagen
How has Elijah Green not started playing football at Georgia yet?
ADoctolero
What's the next "thing" you see teams like the Dodgers, Brewers and Rays doing from either a development or player acquisition standpoint, that will cause the rest of the league to play copy cat?
Eric Longenhagen
Brewers tailoring bat design to the player's swing.
ahughes584
Is Axel Plaz's bat good enough for him to be a regular? Is Rafael Flores' bat good enough that he plays daily for the Pirates?
Eric Longenhagen
Plaz is Botero Jorge Alfaro. Flores will play a big role, yeah. How many catchers really play every day anymore? It's only the top couple guys. They almost always share time and I think Flores will, too, but thrive as a hitter in that role catching 80 games rather than 120.
abravesfan25
How has Brooks Auger looked in the AFL? Still a viable path to being a starter?
Eric Longenhagen
Built like a starter, moves like a starter, commands it like a reliever. Think in that org he's a swingman.
Cromulent
The question about Reimer and Clifford makes me wonder: aren’t Baty and Vientos still ahead of those guys in the (young and at least somewhat unproven) Mets corner infield queue? Or is the cement dry there?
Eric Longenhagen
Definitely stacked ahead of Reimer/Clifford. Ronny Mo, too. It's a deep group, they 've given themselves lots of bites at the apple. Some of these guys regress, some progress, and when you have enough of them around you can capture the peak years of the best couple guys and do okay.
rfilla
How do you evaluate a young, high upside, projectable prospect who misses 1-2 years due to injury? Yairo Padilla, for example. Should we assume his development "paused" or is it more likely that he's been progressing off the field?
Eric Longenhagen
It's tough, but Ethan Salas is proof of concept that these guys shouldn't simply be dismissed because of lost time.
Domingo Ayala
Can Chandler Simpson improve his arm? Very unnatural throwing motion
Eric Longenhagen
Nah, feels like he's just in 20/30 area and you live with it.
Gerry McDonald
Jake Cook didn't have much hitting experience before the draft. Is he developing as you would expect? How did he look in Arizona?
Eric Longenhagen
I love this guy. Has run sub-3.9 for me multiple times, which is like Billy Hamilton fast. Except this guy has more size than Hamilton and is relatively green as a hitter. Think he has a chance to be pretty good. At the very least he's going to be super fun to watch develop, or try to.
zapper
Has Zion Rose passed Burress with his AFL performance?
Eric Longenhagen
Burress looked good during instructs and I wish they had AFL'd him rather than Guedez. I think I'd still take Burress, just a more explosive athlete in the box.
Brendan Smith
How do you see the looming lockout affecting the pro hiring cycle and any player development efforts around spring training/opening month of MiLB season?
Eric Longenhagen
I think some of the more budget-conscious teams will have fewer additions to ops this offseason. Same as COVID and the last lockout.
gettwobrute79
What’s more likely for Derek Curiel? He’s able to stick in center or develop enough power to be a regular? As a Bucs fan, I’d love both, but both feels like a tall ask.
Eric Longenhagen
Let's see what his body looks like in February. These guys can get in the weight room in their early 20s and get pretty strong pretty fast.
Hazmat Corntail
Who are you most interested in seeing how they develop further – if you think they can – now that they’ve reached the majors?: Spencer Jones, Victor Mesa, Cole Carrigg
Eric Longenhagen
Carrigg is the toolsiest of that group.
Brendan Smith
Not a question-video podcast series for the lists would be must watch!
Eric Longenhagen
I've had this idea for a long time but clearing music and video rights could be a nightmare. I obviously shoot a ton of my own video but sometimes broadcast footage is just better for showing what it is I want to show… we'll see.
bubbles
Where would Miguel Hernandez have gone in the 26 draft of he were eligible? When looking at his metrics, he seems impressive and I prefer him over the Cards actual draftee Condon.
Eric Longenhagen
Good question, Bubs. I think he'd be a 700k type in the draft. Sub-70% contact rate guy is scary for Low-A, good plate discipline and power for his age. There's something there but not a first round something
Jeremy Fox
Can you try to develop a pitcher for an Aaron Ashby-type role?
Eric Longenhagen
I think you develop them as starters and then it becomes clear their best role is this Ashby type thing. Grant Taylor, etc.
Can you give us an idea of how to think about AFL as a level of competition? Both in terms of "who they're up against" and also "who should be sent and who isn't ready"?
Eric Longenhagen
High-A pitchers in a Cal League hitting environment. The bullpens here are always bad. I don't know how to solve for this because the pitchers sent here are almost always sent here because they were hurt during the regular season.
Eric Longenhagen
Okay friends, great chat today. I am speaking at First Pitch Arizona next week during our scheduled chat time, so I will need to either change day/time next week. Be sure to check the chat schedule on the site for updates, I'll try to come up with a solution that is creative and fun (like maybe chatting live during Fall Stars?)
The 2026 Arizona Fall League is three weeks old and I’ve now seen every team at least a handful of times. This means I’ve got a handle on a good bit of the league and also can start to identify what gaps I need to fill in during the second half of the slate.
I’ve updated the Fall League tab over on The Board to reflect what Brendan Gawlowski (during his week here in Phoenix) and I have assessed, using the “Trend” column to draw your focus to whose stock we think is moving (with the up or down arrows), who has popped onto our radar for the first time (with the “New” label), and who I still need to see more of (with the target) to feel comfortable assessing. We have not changed anyone’s FV grade because three weeks of looks is only a slice of the evaluation pie and our thoughts might yet change, though we have given interim grades to the “New” players.
Below I’m going to take you through my thoughts on the most notable names and movers from the six-team league. I’m writing as if you already know a bit about each player’s trajectory and background. If you don’t, go to The Board and read their full scouting report, as they tend to provide the 360-degree view of the player’s career.
Howdy from the kitchen table in Tempe where I'm being serenaded by a symphony of leaf blowers just over the back wall.
Eric Longenhagen
Sorry that this is my first chat in a couple of weeks, I've been dealing with some still-undiagnosed health stuff that seems to be abating. Pretty sure I'm okay. Had some illuminating experiences with our health care system though, and I'm pretty sure that's not. Anyway, I've still been at a ton of Fall League games and have a midway point post and Board update brewing, which might run as soon as later today but more likely Monday. For now, we chat.
Charles Bengal Tiger
How much upside does Luis Lara have as a hitter? What would be a reasonable projection for him a few years down the road?
Eric Longenhagen
He has as much upside as he can add strength without compromising the things he currently does really well. I think he's always going to be a sub-.400 SLG guy who plays awesome defense and makes a ton of contact. I think he has better long term upside than what Sal Frelick has been, but that what Frelick has been able to do is a lot like what Lara's skillset looks like right now.
Eric Longenhagen
All of that is to say: I feel comfortable with the 45 we put on Lara, but less comfortable with it than the 45 we put on Pratt. Both feel like solid role players rather than stars.
Solitaire
Request to pass on: add a filter to the minor league leaderboards for prospect status. I'd love to be able to quickly filter to the guys of note and/or see what sort of stats are reasonable for prospects rather than 29 YO journeymen
Thank you for doing these chats. Do you think the Mariners place Ace Reece in AA to start the year next year or just put him in Everett and fast track him if he has success. Also is his stock a little higher than it was after the draft and is he a potential top 100 prospect?
Eric Longenhagen
I would ordinarily tell you that they'd give him a good amount of big league reps during spring training and then decide whether to start him at High-A or Double-A based on how he looks, but I think a lack of MLB spring training means we should take the "under", so to speak, on these guys' assignments. Reese probably isn't an offseason top 100 guy, I'm not one to be moved by an SEC hitter going to the Cal League after the draft and crushing it there. He should, it would have been alarming had he not. Send him to Everett and he'll probably do more of the same. He can't really play defense so I wanna see him crush in Arkansas before buying it, personally.
nicklocarno
The fantasy community seems to have collectively gotten higher on Zion Rose in the months since the draft, and lower on Eric Booth Jr. Is this simple SSS overreaction, or are these informed by real scouting intel?
Eric Longenhagen
I can't speak for the fantasy "community" and I want readers to remember the way opinions spread online and how they can cloud what the array of opinions would be if everyone were sequestered before arriving at one. I can tell you that Zion looks damn good in the AFL, and that Brendan and I both agreed we should just 50 him this offseason. He's stock up. Booth is a hold. What your dynasty team needs (do you need a solid regular soon? Or do you need to take a shot on a potentially freaky stud who might also bust?) should dictate how you line them up on your FYPD board.
Anonymous Member #46
Congratulations on your promotion to Prospect Impresario!
Eric Longenhagen
This has been what Baumann has called me since the Crashburn Alley days, back in… 2012? Sheesh.
washedupscout
Hey Eric! This is John McNamara. We spoke last year when I interviewed with FanGraphs for the full-time prospect writer role. I was a scout with the San Diego Padres for eight years, and I really enjoyed our conversation about baseball and scouting. I recently wrapped up my time with the Padres and am looking for my next opportunity in baseball. I’d love to get your thoughts on where my scouting background might translate or if there’s anyone you think I should connect with. I’d really appreciate any advice or guidance. Thanks
Eric Longenhagen
Hey John, I remember. You were a good candidate and interview. I worry that scouting isn't exactly a growth industry, especially on the pro side. It's more stable on the amateur side because of how much more valuable and actionable "dope" is, and the fact that teams are guaranteed to acquire players via that market, whereas pro impact is more situational. So I'd try to stay on the amateur side. I also think it might be fruitful for more scouts to transition into college baseball as recruiters/GMs. Depending on how things turn out with the pending legislation around college sports, and where things settle post-lockout/CBA with regard to draft processes, it might suddenly make more sense for colleges to have more scouting and recruiting personnel than they already do. Find out what scouts have left pro ball for a job at a college and see if you can reach out to them for counsel. It might be cool to be the transfer portal scout for Miami, or something like that.
Solitaire
You see a batter change levels and suddenly his swing, contact, groundball, and pull percentages all take big jumps. But it's only 20 games. Guy got a new coach who taught/convinced him of a new swing/approach or just a flukey 20 games? 20 games is very small sample for results, but seems decent for approach. Eye-test needed to see if anything is actually different?
Eric Longenhagen
You can pretty easily marry the data change flag with a look at the wing on video to get a better feel for whether or not there has actually been a change. If you have a way of flagging changes in the data over a short (but statistically significant) window of time and then running down the flagged targets with your eye balls, that's ideal.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Kendry Rojas of MIN still project as a starting pitcher?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, I think as long as he has options he'll be rolled out as a starter enough to keep his innings count within a reasonable distance of full-time starting once his option years run out. The guys who tend to stick as starters are the ones whose bodies and deliveries look like Kendry's.
war2d2
Eric! The Cubs are running back their MLB pitching infrastructure, which got me thinking about their inability to build any kind of a minor league pitching pipeline for what is now almost 20 years of the Theo/Jed regime. Is it just bad drafting, bad development, or some kind of institutional blind spot that’s led to this? I’d have a hard time coming up with more than five pitchers in the last 20 years that they drafted, developed, and got value out of. In fact, Cease would probably be on that list and they traded him from A ball.
Eric Longenhagen
I think they've had some success but it hasn't been sustained success. Steele popped and then got hurt and looked like a shell of himself during rehab in AZ. I can say that their style of development tends to include velo spikes and pitch additions. Everyone suddenly has a cutter and a sweeper when before they had just one breaker, and they might throw a few ticks harder. But they haven't tended to develop or improve command. The Naz Mule's of the world don't need two more pitches, they need control. So maybe there hasn't been cohesion with what the draft has fed the dev group. Some teams, like the Brewers' pitchers, show similar trends where they all of a sudden have five pitches. And others, like the Rays, basically have guys throw 2 pitches the whole time they're in the minors and don't really care to flesh out repertoires as much.
szakyl
After AFL, how much confidence do you have that 2025 is behind him, and Welbyn Francisca is a legit prospect again?
Eric Longenhagen
He's back from the dead, imo.
Anonymous Member #46
How much are we knocking off your future value due to the health concerns?
Eric Longenhagen
You should ding my "party/hang" tool grade because I can't drink until I'm done with this run of medication. It was already a 40, unplayable now.
Brian Reinhart
Hope you continue recovering from your case of the bleph
ljax1979
The Royals have to trade Blake Mitchell this winter, right?
Eric Longenhagen
I think catching depth is important enough that, unless they think he's totally bunk from all the K's, they should probably hold onto him. If you think it's enough K's to make him a binary "no" as a hitter, than sure you can sell high on him coming off a 30 homer season.
Eric Longenhagen
This chat interface is so rad.
wallyworld2199
How is Briggs McKenzie looking coming off injury? Young, but seemed like he had some good stuff early on and the Braves are one of the better orgs developing pitchers
Eric Longenhagen
I saw his first start and haven't run into him since (I went to see the Fielder/Holmes movie last night) but he looked like Diet Bumgarner to me in the first game. Graceful, repeatable, deceptive, feel, good breaker quality. Starter all the way, mid rotation upside. Think we'll leave the 45+ on him, though, and make him a Pick to Click rather than hondo him right now.
Alex Remington
Looking at these two teams, there are a lot of really productive guys on both rosters who probably would not have been stars had they been developed in other organizations. Logan Henderson's a good example! Obviously, when you're doing a Board-type prospect ranking, it's hard to take org into account because guys can get traded and it's impossible to control for that, but – how much of the variance in a prospect's outcome can be traced directly to what organization they're in? And, as an analyst, what do you do with that?
Eric Longenhagen
This is the classic "predicting vs scouting" question. We have to assess the player in a vacuum, but you should feel free to put your thumb on the scale of predicting the outcome based on what orgs you think/know are better at developing players, or putting them in position to succeed. Like Andrew Vaughn changed orgs after he graduated, there's nothing we can do about retconning our grade, things just happen and it plays out and you hope you're directionally correct on the player.
baseballfan115
When evaluating future outfield defense, how do you determine whether a player who is transitioning to the OF has the capacity to judge the flyballs/get efficient and quick jumps?
Eric Longenhagen
Just watch the initial transition and see how natural it is for the player to do the things he needs to do at the OF position. Then give it time to breathe and check in a few months later on whether there's been progress. Some guys take to it right away, others need time/reps, and some will never get comfortable doing it.
clubberlang
Thanks for chatting! Angeibel Gomez has been raking lately in AFL. Does that change your opinion of his upside?
Eric Longenhagen
I think the very aggressive 50 we have on him is still appropriate. Real power and feel to hit, probably a corner OF in the end. To go from "new signee" to "guy we feel pretty strongly is a future everyday player" is really impressive. I don't think he's Acuna or anything like that.
Phil
Eric, it looks like the banner link is missing part of the url for this chat–the one in the blogroll works. Thought you'd want to know!
Eric Longenhagen
Thanks, idk why, we've asked Sean and I'm sure I just goofed something when I built the post because it's my first time chatting solo with this interface.
smoothio
Did Salas’ debut move the needle for you? I wonder if he has enough bat to be a superstar catcher like you’d expect from one getting started as a 20 year old.
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, I think he's a top 5 prospect and will be a consistent 3 WAR catcher.
rossredcay
Not a prospect, but is Victor Mesa Jr. a possible major breakout next year in an everyday role? No real platoon split that would seem to indicate he needs to sit against lefties.
Eric Longenhagen
Seems possible, yes. Swing changed, more power without sacrificing a ton of contact. Contact was actually better in '26 than before, even with the more aggressive swing. Obviously has profile-altering arm strength and defensive profile. Could be 40 hit with 45 or 50 power and big time defense. That's at least a good platoon guy (45) if not an everyday player. We had him graded as an extra outfielder, basically a pure defensive replacement.
rossredcay
I know your opinion or way of thinking of these low contact sluggers (e.g. Murakami) has changed somewhat. I assume Griffin Conine is a guy who would fit into that bucket of bats. I've been waiting for the bottom to fall out give his awful contact rate, but is this a guy who could have a more sustainable role going forward given this shift in the game?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, the number of sub-70% contact guys keeps climbing and it's at the point where I need to reassess my baselines for viability, or at least try to separate the guys who aren't gonna hit enough to matter from the ones who will somehow. There are still guys with 65% contact who just aren't going to hit, it isn't like all of a sudden those guys are good to go.
Eric Longenhagen
But why Murakami (who sucked down the stretch btw, he might be due for a regression and all of this will be moot) and not Jack Cust, or whoever.
jkrangel1524
By your rankings Eyanson, Zazueta, Flora and Susana are are close to each other. Do you have a personal preference/order to these arms that differs from the rankings and if so, why?
Eric Longenhagen
Nah, they're *my* rankings. Susana it's 99-102 with bad shape, bad strikes, and an elite slider. He's probably a reliever but one of the ten best relievers in baseball. Zazueta it's velo, ride, command, changeup, but no good breaking ball. Mid-rotation guy with a flaw that prevents him from being a no. 2 or better. Flora could be the most complete guy of that group if he can stay healthy and throw strikes across 140+ innings, Eyanson is a little closer to having done that with 100 IP in pro ball this year.
tdmoc
Any chance Patrick Reilly can still start even with the lost time? Slider is playing much nicer than pre-TJS
Eric Longenhagen
Yes, I think the more vertical breaker will play against lefties and there are enough strikes. He's probably a five-and-dive type, though.
Bud Smith
Following up on a few weeks ago – any insight into why Aiva Arquette went on the IL for the last two days of the season?
Eric Longenhagen
Arquette had three IL stints this year. In order: Sports hernia (which is what I thought I had two weeks ago), thumb sprain, then oblique.
rossredcay
What would you say is the % chance Brody Hopkins just sticks in the pen from here on out? I'm assuming he gets another shot in the rotation next year at least, but is that for sure?
Eric Longenhagen
I'd say like 90% bullpen now that he's on the 40. Conversion arms tend to be in the bullpen.
Charles Bengal Tiger
In my (very deep) dynasty league I have a chance to draft Jared Grindlinger if I drop Xavier Neyens. Advisable, or would this be negligible gain?
Eric Longenhagen
I want Grindlinger
tdmoc
(also fyi the banner link leads to a 404 page)
Eric Longenhagen
This has been fixed
tjralstin13
Now with 3 injury marred or inconsistent seasons under his belt, do you have any confidence in Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford reaching their full potential? They have both showed flashes, but Wyatt's decisions at the plate, defensive miscues and health have been infuriating. Carter also can't seem to choose an approach that gives him sustained offensive success similar to the lightning in bottle run he had in 2023. Do you have any recommendations for either of them or the Rangers moving forward that you've observed? Thanks again!
Eric Longenhagen
I'm still on Longford, Carter I think is just okay.
Anonymous Member #46
more like Eric Lags-at-hangin' amirite
Eric Longenhagen
I'm only good at cooking and writing anymore.
millvillemeltdown
athletics and sports all select for outlier/"freakish" traits; are there things that you have seen in baseball that you did not think were humanly possible? did any "freaks" end up really panning out from your perspective?
Eric Longenhagen
I've seen deGrom in person three times and was blown away all three times. Acuna's balls in play made retirees at AFL games moan in kind of a scared way. Teenage Tatis BPs were crazy. Watching Gerrit Cole's Fall League debut was crazy. Stephen Strasburg Harrisburg home debut with so many fans taht they ran out of food, had a brown out and a rain delay, and hearing his breaking ball spinning through the humidity throughout the whole ballpark was crazy.
Eric Longenhagen
Even Ray Kerr. Like, Kerr is "just" a middle reliever but he's here in part because he's pretty freaky.
Eric Longenhagen
Whenever anyone does high-end stuff of any kind, I wanna hopefully be sensitive to that and bet that will play in the big leagues. It doesn't have to be guys who run fast or jump high or who are built like underwear models. It can be Alejandro Kirk framing pitches like he does.
Solitaire
Anyone floating around the minors with speed who could try to completely sell out power for bat control and make it like Chandler Simpson? Or do you need truly 80-grade speed to make that profile work, no 60s or 70s need apply
Eric Longenhagen
I think you need at least a 70.
David Wiers
What's your fav defunct baseball site? BrooksBaseball or StatCorner.
Eric Longenhagen
Brooks was big for me in college.
matt
I emailed FG support without a reply a few weeks ago but can you possibly let them know to add contact% as possible category to add on milb custom reports. They have swinging strike% but knowing whiff/contact% is different. Thank you
Eric Longenhagen
Contact rate doesn't come from the game logs liek the other data, that's Statcast/Hawkeye/Trackman stuff that I source from team people. I'll approach Sean and Co. about integrating it into the board somehow, but it'd be an end of year data point rather than something that could update in real time.
wallyworld2199
More importantly….how was the Nathan Fielder doc on a 20-80 scale?
Eric Longenhagen
Still digesting it, in the 65/70 area for me. OJ Made in America is the 80.
InsertWittyNameHere
Two-parter: what's the best quote you've ever gotten from a prospect, and what's the dumbest thing you ever heard someone say? I feel like during the lockout we should get more human interest reporting about what it's like to be a pro/amateur ball player.
Eric Longenhagen
Not a ton of prospect quotes from me, I talk to some kids at the Combine every year and have some questions for kids on occasion, but those questions are almost always to glean information about how they're being developed rather than the player himself. Jake Burger is really funny, JJ Wetherholt impressed all of us at the combine a few years ago, JA Happ was nice to be around when I was a kid at Lehigh Valley back in '08.
nicklocarno
curious if you have thoughts about the hypothetical landscape of college baseball, supposing HS players were excluded from draft eligibility in the next CBA… in particular, would it make home games in a Big10 city more relevant on the level of getting to see some capital-D Dudes before the draft?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, it's roughly 50 players who I ranked, and probably another 15 or so who I didn't, who get signed out of high school now but wouldn't if HS players are no longer draft eligible. In the bucket of the college player population it isn't a ton of bodies. But it is a lot of the most talented kids. All it takes is one Rocker/Leiter duo to make some noise and grab people's attention, and it would ensure those guys do some version of that, even if it's just for a year or two like in the NBA. But the things that make college baseball tough to watch (all the walks, lack of pitching depth, midweek games that go 4 hours because of all the runs, a bloated run environment because the bats are like golf clubs) would remain.
Joshua
No question but a feature request: ability to sort Team Stats on the Minor League side like the MLB stats leaderboards. Thanks for the great work!
Eric Longenhagen
Oh yeah, that's interesting. I wonder if there might be barriers to coding that retrospectively because affiliates change?
baseballfan115
Speed development. I remember Julio Rodriguez was projected early to fall to a corner. What stopped him from doing that? Did he gain speed? Not lose as much as predicted?
Eric Longenhagen
There's a Divish article about Julio completely changing his eating and workout habits you should dig up.
Healthy, mobile, fast. Ends up playing next to Walcott a bunch, so also looks more human.
David Wiers
Among other reasons why purely scouting a stat line is sub-optimal, what percentage of MiLB hits would more usually be outs in the show? Like 10% between fielding, positioning, and "hits" that actually errors?
Eric Longenhagen
Man, that's a tough question. It's super relevant. Can we just assess BABIPs and have an okay enough notion?
Honkus Wagner
asked brendan this and curious for your answer as well. Caceras, Gomez, Renteria, Frias. if you were starting a team which one are you taking?
Eric Longenhagen
Frias, Gomez, Caceres, Renteria.
Bacterun
When it comes to a player like Bryce Rainer (high strikeout, big power, lots of walks in minors with surprisingly good average for K%) what kind of attributes do you look at to shade up or down on developing better contact? Is it more of a physical thing? More of an approach thing? Odds Rainer can rein in his strikeouts to become an All-star or better MLBer? (pun very much intended)
Eric Longenhagen
Lever/swing length (which is kind of a double-edged sword because it's easy to say the longer guys will shorten up as they get stronger {Walcott has} but sometimes they just can't) and feel for altering their hands to help them make contact. Like the way Judge tucks his hands in to shorten up against stuff near his torso. That's how you avoid being too long to make contact in there. Rainer isn't doing that right now, it's realy really long.
Andrew
Thoughts on Villanova breaking up the Big 5?
Eric Longenhagen
Selfish, cynical, douche behavior.
Alex Remington
In connection with my earlier question (predicting vs scouting), what *do* the various teams do well? I think as fans we can sometimes overblow this stuff. Like Cleveland and Atlanta really do seem to be able to churn out pitching, and Tampa and Milwaukee always seem to be more than the sum of their parts offensively, and Toronto *typically* seems like they can get their guys to hit – until this year. Et cetera! Who are the orgs who you'd identify as having genuinely repeatable strengths?
Eric Longenhagen
Some of it is acquisition related, some of it is player dev, and some of it is deployment. Yes, Cleveland makes pitchers better. They draft strike-throwers and turn them into harder-throwing guys without killing their command. Milwaukee seems to know what kind of bat these guys should be using. Bauers, Turang… they've all changed their gear in meaningful ways. I think bat design/weight/shape cab be tailored for each individual's swing and Milwaukee has done that. Their international department also finds dudes via a "go-wide" strategy, which they also emply in the draft by taking all these HS guys spread across lower seven figure and mid sic figure bonuses. WHen you have great dev, it makes sense to want more bites at the apple and they have that locked in. Tampa deploys guys in the ways they're best suited to succeed. When you have Manny Margot and Corey Dickerson and their skillsets compliment one another, you can put both in the best position to succeed on a rate stat basis. You're turning 45s in a vacuum into 55s on a rate basis, and then creating trade value as if the players are 50s and 55s, dealing those guys when they become expensive and snowballing similar prospects to ensure you always have enough guys around to do this…
Eric Longenhagen
Kiley and I wrote a whole chapter in Future Value about this. Obviously that was seven years ago and things are different. We try to do a version of this every year in the System Overviews of the prospect lists to give you an idea of what we think teams are good at.
Eric Longenhagen
Okay friends, 90 minute chat today feels like a good re-entry after two weeks off. Thanks for coming, enjoy the world series.
Orange County native Jake Bauers placed a stake against the heart of the two-time defending champion Dodgers, and Garrett Mitchell and Aaron Ashby drove it home. After an initial four-run flourish from the Dodgers offense, the Brewers plated six unanswered runs; they took the lead in the sixth and never looked back. Ashby worked three scoreless and twice stranded the tying run at third base. The Brewers won Game 4, swept the mighty Dodgers, and are now headed to their first World Series since 1982.
Initially, it looked as though fortune favored Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers. Brewers star outfielder Jackson Chourio hit an absolute rocket on the first pitch of the game, but it ricocheted off Enrique Hernández at third and right into the hands of Mookie Betts, who was poised to make a bang-bang play. After that, Glasnow was untouchable for a bit, remaining perfect through three innings.
In the meantime, Los Angeles jumped out to a four-run lead. Brewers starter Shane Drohan was bailed out of a wild first by a Will Smith double play ball, then was removed after he allowed a Kyle Tucker leadoff single in the second. Former Dodger Dustin May relieved Drohan, gave up singles to Teoscar Hernández and Andy Pages, and then left a fastball in the happy zone of an ailing Shohei Ohtani, who vaporized it.
Though Ohtani’s catharsis was evident as he rounded the bases, the feeling proved fleeting and would be replaced by frustration, as the Brewers battled back and the Dodgers squandered opportunity after opportunity in the middle innings.
That began in the fourth. Glasnow surrendered his first baserunner via a walk to Brice Turang. Then, somehow, William Contreras (who would later have several consequential blocks on pitches in the dirt) turned on a 96-mph fastball in on his hands and ripped a ground rule double into the left field stands. Up stepped Bauers, who worked a full count when a Glasnow two-seamer nearly nicked the inside corner. In real time, it looked like a pitch that Smith perhaps should have challenged; Glasnow certainly seemed to think so, though Gameday had it off the plate. On the very next pitch, Bauers hit his own ground rule double, and plated two.
Bauers was named NLCS MVP after the game. He went a respectable 4-for-14 with three walks in the series, and a couple of the hits were doozies, most notably the epic at-bat that led to his backbreaking two-run homer in Game 3, which was the moment of the series.
In the fifth, the Brewers tied the game via some small ball and a bit of self-inflicted Dodger damage. Sal Frelick walked, stole second, and then was singled home by David Hamilton. That ended Glasnow’s night. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts turned to Evan Phillips, who struggled. After Chourio hit a 110-mph line out, Roberts decided to intentionally walk Turang, and then Phillips walked Contreras on his own and was removed for Alex Vesia, who walked Bauers to force in a run and knot the game up at four.
In the top of the sixth inning, Roberts turned to Tanner Scott to face the bottom portion of Milwaukee’s order, which is mostly left-handed. Mitchell, who went to high school at nearby Orange Lutheran and to college at UCLA, battled back from an 0-2 count and, on the sixth pitch of his at-bat, got a fastball down the middle.
It was Mitchell’s second home run off a lefty in the series, after he had just one against a southpaw during the regular season.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy would only need two relievers to navigate the final five innings of the game, which hung in the balance several times. Deadline acquisition Jojo Romero needed just 12 pitches to deal with three future Hall of Famers in Ohtani, Betts, and Freddie Freeman in the fifth and became the pitcher of record when Mitchell homered. In the sixth, Romero gave up a left-on-left double to Tucker (who had two hits on Thursday and was the Dodgers’ best hitter in this series) but was able to strike out Max Muncy and strand Tucker at third later that inning.
In the seventh, Murphy called upon Ashby. To call Ashby dominant would be correct – he matched his season-high fastball velocity at 100 mph and punched three tickets – but it would also undersell how many times he and the Brewers had to avoid danger during his three innings of work. Ashby pitched around a leadoff double from Pages (who moved to third via an Enrique Hernández sac bunt) by striking out Ohtani on three pitches and inducing Betts to ground out to shortstop Cooper Pratt, who made multiple dynamite throws from deep in the hole in this game.
In the eighth, Smith finally ran into one and hit a double of his own to right field, then advanced to third as the ball rattled around in the corner and was fumbled by Frelick. Tucker followed him with a jam-shot flare that looked like it could be real trouble off the bat, only for Mitchell to come streaking in so far from center field that he fielded the ball just a few strides from the infield.
After that, Ashby bent in a pair of curveballs from hell to strike out Teoscar Hernández and end the inning. He worked a 1-2-3 ninth to close things out, capping off 6.2 scoreless innings for the series. Once upon a time, Ashby looked like a shell of his former self coming off a shoulder injury. Now he’s one of the nastier lefty relievers on the planet and had about as good an argument for series MVP as Bauers did.
Milwaukee was able to tack on an insurance run in the ninth with a Hamilton homer off of Edwin Díaz, who pitched the final three innings of the game for the Dodgers. Though it was ultimately inconsequential, it was odd to see Díaz throw more than two innings for the first time since 2016 in a one-run elimination game. The homer was the lone blemish on his line. Hamilton had two hits after a failed attempt to bunt for a hit in the third, something Murphy told the fellas at the postgame desk he believed helped Hamilton get good pitches to hit later in the game.
That kind of minutiae has helped propel a very talented Brewers team, which has more wins than any other team in baseball over the last two seasons, within range of its first ever World Series title. Two weeks from now, we will either have a first-time champion in the Brewers or Rays, or watch the Guardians win their first World Series in nearly 80 years. The Dodgers, who should still hold their heads high after two consecutive titles, went 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position on Thursday. After a 100-win season, and despite a punishing rotation, they simply weren’t whole and healthy when the postseason arrived, and were outplayed in every facet by a balanced Milwaukee club. Sometimes that’s baseball.
Major League Baseball is once again using the Arizona Fall League as a laboratory for potential rule changes at the major league level. In the past, the AFL has been a proving ground for rule alterations that have made their way to the top level of play, from the pitch timer, to limits on infield shifts, to the ABS challenge system; other initiatives, such as check swing challenges and fully automated balls and strikes, have previously been tested in Arizona but not implemented in the majors. This year, FanGraphs can report that the AFL is piloting new rules restricting defender positioning both on the infield (with the bases empty) and, perhaps more notably, in the outfield. Though MLB implemented restrictions on where infielders can play in 2023, this is the first time the league is piloting guard rails around where outfield defenders can be positioned when a pitch is thrown.
These restrictions first came to my attention during Monday’s game at Salt River Field, where Brendan Gawlowski and I noticed two things. First, Brendan noticed that the two teams’ corner outfielders were positioned both very close to the foul lines and much shallower than contemporary outfielders typically play. Of course, there are situations where a team might want to strategically align their outfielders like this, but for both teams to be doing so regardless of the hitter or game situation struck us as strange. Here is what that looked like on Monday:
The 34th Arizona Fall League season opens today with three games staggered across the Phoenix metro area. There are future stars in the Fall League every year, as well as many more workmanlike players who are competing for a 40-man roster spot on next year’s club. It’s a wonderful league for teams to develop and scout prospects because of the cross section of talent it tends to include (there are usually lots of good position player prospects), its timing (which allows players who were injured during the regular season to catch up on reps), and its structure (which allows for six weeks of steady looks). Teams almost always take the AFL seriously and send players who they want to see more of, or want to test. Being on the roster is, on its own, a flare for people like me who are looking for future big leaguers. It’s an indication that a player is worth paying attention to from a scouting standpoint even if I didn’t know the guy’s name until I saw the roster.
Previewing this league with prospects’ scouting reports risks putting the cart before the horse because the scouting part has yet to happen. I want to give you the notes I already have, to play the hits and make sure you have Jarlin Susana and Arjun Nimmala reports and tool grades in front of you right now (don’t worry, you will), but a huge part of the pro scouting exercise that is the Arizona Fall League is mining for the deeper-cut prospects, and I can’t tell you who those guys are going to be just yet. Still, I can show you the initial steps I take to prepare to go to the field and try to systematically unearth these guys, give you the tools to do so on your own, and, in the process, let know you who it is I’m most curious and excited to learn more about for the next six weeks.
The players who become scouting “targets” tend to fall into a handful of categories: famous players, potential dudes, statistical performers, and players in a key roster situation. Read the rest of this entry »
The “mediocrity” of the American League made their muddled standings and September races for the postseason an object of derision. At least as far as the AL Central was concerned, though, that was not the case on my couch. All four of the division’s competitive clubs were must-watch TV down the stretch. Three of the Central’s teams finished with positive run differentials. Minnesota and Detroit had frustrating and disappointing seasons, but both have cores of exciting young talent that made them incredibly watchable, and despite taking different routes at the trade deadline, both fought to stay in the postseason picture through August.
However, had either of those teams usurped the White Sox or Guardians, both of which hovered around the division lead all season, it would have felt unjust. The White Sox got off to a bad start and were 6-12 in mid-April, then went on a heater in May (pummeling Seattle, Detroit and Minnesota) and began to jockey with Cleveland for the division lead. The Guardians hit a snag and fell away from the Sox in July, only to resurge after the trade deadline and ultimately claim the division title on the regular season’s penultimate day. It gave Cleveland a playoff bye and forced the White Sox to play a road Wild Card Series in Houston, home of the AL West (an actually bad division) champion Astros. The White Sox swept Houston with relative ease and now head to Cleveland to settle the score after both their head-to-head season series (which the Guardians won 7-6) and overall records were separated by just one game.
The fan bases with rooting interest in the White Sox-Astros Wild Card Series entered the postseason with differing perspectives on their teams’ relative talent and season quality. Chicagoans, though perhaps irked at how the division slipped away from them at the end of the season, were likely thrilled to be here after multiple consecutive 100-loss seasons. However, Houston fans, who have enjoyed a higher standard of living for the last decade, aren’t content with parallel parking into the top spot of a bad division, then bowing out in the Wild Card round. That was apparent during Houston’s Game 1 loss, which tasted sour enough to Astros fans that they let the kitchen know about it, and some of the players and manager Joe Espada acknowledged hearing it with varying levels of annoyance.
That set the tone for a mid-afternoon Game 2 at Daikin Park, in which the White Sox landed decisive blows in two big innings and sent Houston packing to win their first postseason series since they won the 2005 World Series. The Sox will now chart a Division Series course for Cleveland. Read the rest of this entry »
