Author Archive

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, All Eyes on Mesa

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October 24, 2016
2:05

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone. I’m at Sloan Park in Mesa for BP. I’ll probably hold tight to an hour today to grab a seat. I’ll try to hustle through as many questions as possible…
2:05

Greg: I know you raved about Demeritte defensively. Have you seen any improvement offensively out in Arizona, or any reason to believe he can be an offensive contributor in the future?
2:06

Eric A Longenhagen: His approach remains over-aggressive.
2:06

Keith, Farmington, CT: Thanks Eric. Heard a report that Yoan Moncada’s infield defense is atrocious enough that Boston needs to move him to the outfield in the spring. Is that fair? Too harsh?
2:07

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s so new to 3B that you have to excuse most of the hiccups at this point. I’ve seen enough promising footwork to be optimistic of his future at 3B.
2:07

John: What is Kolby Allards Floor/Ceiling?

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Scouting Kyle Schwarber’s Arizona Fall League Appearance

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October 24, 2016

Hours before hell froze over in Chicago in Saturday, Kyle Schwarber was added to the Mesa Solar Sox taxi squad and immediately cast into action as the team’s designated hitter that night at Sloan Park in Mesa.

His presence in the lineup was significant in a way that’s unusual for the Fall League. Most of the participants here are prospects benefiting from extra developmental time against reasonably advanced minor-league competition. Schwarber, on the other hand, is more or less auditioning for a a place on the Cubs’ World Series roster. When he stepped to the plate on Saturday, it represented his first place appearance in a professional game since suffering a knee injury on April 7. That injury was originally characterized as a “season-ending” one. But the Cubs’ season hasn’t ended yet, and Schwarber remains a candidate to contribute to it.

Below are my thoughts on his performance.

Schwarber went 0-for-3 with a walk, the 0 consisting of two weak ground outs to the right side and a well struck ball to the right-center-field gap that seemed destined for extra bases off the bat but was robbed by Rockies prospect Noel Cuevas. The least flattering aspect of Schwarber’s evening was his timing. He was out on his front foot against offspeed stuff a few times, which led to some of the evening’s weak contact and he missed a few other hittable pitches.

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Valuing Prospects: The Pros and Cons of a Single Number

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October 17, 2016

Over the next several months, I’ll be releasing comprehensive reports on each major-league club’s farm system and the prospects therein. Implicit in this is that I will be ranking the prospects – both within each farm system and across baseball – based on my own evaluation of the players as well as that of industry sources. The players will be ordered by their “Future Value” grade. This Future Value methodology was brought to FanGraphs in 2014 by former Lead Prospect Analyst, Kiley McDaniel (reggaeton horn).

If you’d like to read what is essentially the Book of Genesis on Future Value, then I’ll direct you here for McDaniel’s (reggaeton horn) 2015 top-prospects list for an explanation of FV and its merits, as well as here for discussion about the 20-80 scouting scale.

In short, Future Value attempts to combine a prospect’s potential (reasonable ceiling and floor) as well as his chance of realizing it (including injury-related risks or proximity to the majors) into one tidy, value-based number.

There are some pretty obvious issues with this system, some of which are practical, others more personal, and I’ll touch on those briefly before explaining why I’m retaining the system.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, 10/17

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October 17, 2016
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, we’re gonna get underway in a minute, just waiting for the go ahead from Carson on my piece for today…
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ll link to it once it’s posted. Let’s get rolling…
2:03
Julio Pepper: I recently discovered the existence of Shedric Long, and haven’t been able to find a single thing written about him. His 2016 numbers look really good and he just turned 21; anything there?
2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Bat speed, power, can run a little bit. His approach is a little over aggressive and scouts don’t know if he has the pure bat speed to allow for all that Gary Sheffield wiggling at the upper levels but he’s definitely a prospects.
2:04
GPT: Give Giants fans a tiny preview into the prospect rankings, which player are you relatively higher than most, or a player you’ve heard good things about from others that you didn’t expect?
2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Giants will be out next week. I’m high on Melvin Adon and Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds shouldn’t be a shocker but I think he might be the #2 guy in the system.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Fall League Eve

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October 10, 2016
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Good day to you, baseball fan. Let’s talk prospects. Gonna keep things pretty tight to the hour mark today as I’ve got scout calls scheduled and Fall League prep to do for tomorrow’s opener. Also, you know…playoffs.
2:03
Stenzy: So Christian Arroyo is off limits to Giants management but do they have enough prospects to pull off multiple deals this offseason for an outfielder or closer like Wade Davis? Beede and Shaw but what else?
2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: They certainly have the pieces to make a deal but probably not the ammo to outbid some of clubs with top-tier systems should they be motivated to pursue the same players. I think Arroyo and Beede are their best prospects, Bryan Reynolds probably just below them. Beyond those they have arms but most are either relievers or back end starters and some young, far from the bigs prospects who some teams might be hot for.
2:05
Travis: Is a player like Albies less valuable with the power surge the 2B position saw this year?
2:07
Eric A Longenhagen: You could argue this year’s homer spike is so extreme that a regression almost has to happen, but I know the idea that I need to consider the power in my own valuation processes has at least crossed my mind. It all depends whether or not you think the spike is here to stay.
2:07
joe: Thoughts on James Kaprelian’s return?

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, One Week to Fall League

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October 4, 2016
1:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, we’ve got some great questions in the queue so I wanna hop into things quickly, but just a heads up on what I’m up to today:
1:04

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hitting instructs after the chat. Oak, AZ, SF and a KBO team. Looks like I’ll be doing the AL Wild Card live chat tonight with Sullivan, too. So come enjoy a more scout-y flavored chat if you’re so inclined.
1:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok, let’s do it.
1:04

Billy: Have you gotten a chance to see Corey Ray yet this fall? What are your opinions on him?
1:05

Eric A Longenhagen: I assume you mean the Brewers Corey Ray and not the Royals (who I saw throw a bullpen yesterday, he looked good). Haven’t seen CF Ray but heard he was on crutches this week so I’m looking into that.
1:05

Dan: Is Aristides Aquino a potential top 100 prospect heading into next year?

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An Early Look at the Right-Handed Pitchers in the 2017 Draft

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September 27, 2016

This is a series of scouting thoughts on high-school prospects eligible for the 2017 MLB Draft based on observations from summer showcases. Today’s positional group is right-handed pitchers. Links to other positional groups appear below.

Previous editions: Catchers / Corner Infielders / Middle Infielders / Center Fielders / Left-Handed Pitchers.

Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)

Height: 6’4, Weight: 200, Commitment: UCLA

This kid might go 1-1 and he’d be the first high-school righty in the history of the draft to do so. His fastball is absolutely electric, sitting in the mid-90s and touching as high as 98 with good extension and movement that plays in the zone. I think Greene’s heater would be effective in the big leagues right now and, though the rest of his repertoire is middling, his body and athleticism make the entire package worthy of top-of-the-draft considertation.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 9/19

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September 19, 2016
2:02

Eric A Longenhagen: G’day everyone. We’re likely to have an annotated chat today as I tie up loose ends before heading to an instructional league double header this afternoon and then to Florida, apologies ahead of time.
2:02

Slamboni: Tyler O’Neill just finished a second consecutive great season. Is it unreasonable to expect he is a big spring away from the bigs? The Seattle OF is nothing to write home about..
2:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think that’s unreasonable. He’s answered every challenge thrown at him. I have no issues aggressively promoting players who have performed and O’Neill has. If he rakes in Fall League I’d absolutely let him run with the big leaguers next spring and see hot things go.
2:04

Sailor Jerry: Have you seen Ryon Healy this year? Do you think this sort of production is sustainable?
2:05

Eric A Longenhagen: I have. The power is definitely real, it’s approaching 7 raw power. I don’t think he’s going to make as much contact as he has thus far, though.
2:05

MetsFan: Who will be the first 2016 draft prospect to hit the majors?

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An Early Look at the Corner Infielders in the 2017 MLB Draft

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September 15, 2016

This is a series of scouting thoughts on high-school prospects eligible for the 2017 MLB Draft based on observations from summer showcases. Today’s positional group is corner infielders. Links to other positional groups appear below.

Previous editions: Catchers / Middle Infielders / Center Fielders / Left-Handed Pitchers.

The position du jour is corner infielders. This is a weird group. I shuffled the names around quite a bit before publication and am still not sure that I’m okay with what I have because beauty is very much in the eye of the beholder when it comes to all of these prospects. Without further adieu…

Adisyn Coffey, 3B, Delta HS (IN)

Height: 6’2, Weight: 170, Commitment: Arizona State

Coffey had the coolest looking bat at Area Codes and put on quite a display with it, making hard, airborne contact in several at-bats. He has above-average bat speed and great feel for generating lift because of a cute little backside collapse that creates some uppercut in the swing without overdoing it and eating away at his ability to make contact. Coffey loads his hands quite high and it can take a good bit of time for his barrel to find the baseball in the hitting zone, but he moves the bat around pretty well, I like his chances to hit and, eventually, hit with some power.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 9/12

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September 12, 2016
1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone. Gonna let Szym finish his chat before I get going here. Fell free to pump questions into the queue and I’ll get rolling when he’s done.
1:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, let’s get rolling.
1:39
CJ: Tell me how to feel about Dylan Cease and his ridiculous stuff.
1:40
Eric A Longenhagen: I think you should feel excited but I caution you to let your guard down because the guy has a pretty lengthy injury history. Only allow yourself to be vulnerable if you can deal with a broken heart.
1:40
LA: How do you like the possibility of Yohander Mendez helping out the Texas rotation as early as spring training next year?
1:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Non-zero chance, the stuff is certainly good enough, but I think it’s more likely he starts next year in the minors.

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