FanGraphs Power Rankings: Opening Day 2023
Welcome back baseball! After an exciting and dramatic World Baseball Classic to whet our appetites, the main course is finally here. I introduced these power rankings a few years ago as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside of the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven.
A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are now powered by our blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA.
Team | Projected Record | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | Fld | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Braves | 92-70 | 106 | 89 | 89 | 11.4 | 174 | 90.5% |
Yankees | 91-71 | 105 | 91 | 97 | 42.1 | 172 | 81.0% |
The Braves haven’t budged from the top of these rankings throughout this offseason. Sure, the Mets spent a ton of money this offseason, and the Phillies just went to the World Series, but Atlanta has owned this division for the last half decade. There are still some lingering questions, however. Orlando Arcia likely isn’t the long-term solution at shortstop, but both Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake were optioned to Triple-A last week; the former has some defensive issues to work through, and the latter needs more exposure to high-level pitching before being handed a job in the big leagues. There are also some injury concerns in their pitching staff, with both Kyle Wright and Raisel Iglesias dealing with shoulder issues this spring and Michael Soroka not fully recovered from his many maladies. Still, this team is loaded with young talent and poised to win its sixth consecutive division title.
The big storyline for the Yankees this spring has been the competition for starting shortstop, with top prospect Anthony Volpe earning a spot on the Opening Day roster. That should provide youthful excitement to cover the very real concerns in the rotation and outfield. Harrison Bader likely won’t be out for long with his strained oblique, but his absence has revealed how shallow the position group is when Aaron Judge has to slide over to center field. And injuries of varying severity to Carlos Rodón, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas aren’t exactly how you want to start off the season. Read the rest of this entry »