As Chris Gilligan wrote last week, it seems like we’re primed for an exciting and drama-filled second half of the season. There are plenty of teams still vying for a postseason berth, and the trade deadline is right around the corner as we head into the All-Star break.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Eight is the Braves’ number this year. Not only are they sending eight players to the All-Star game in Seattle next week, but they’re also in the midst of their third eight-game winning streak this season. Incredibly, they lost just four times during the month of June and have now overtaken the Rays for the best record in baseball. They’ve weathered all those injuries to their starting rotation by simply pounding across run after run; since the beginning of June, they’ve scored nearly seven runs per game. They’ll head into the midseason break with a road trip that takes them through Cleveland and then to Tampa Bay to face the team they just passed in the overall standings. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2021, the Mariners called up Logan Gilbert, their no. 3 prospect at the time; he has compiled a tidy 7.0 WAR across nearly 400 innings over the last three years. Last year, the Mariners called up George Kirby, their no. 3 prospect at the time; he was a key member of the rotation that helped break Seattle’s two-decade-long postseason drought. With Luis Castillo joining the rotation at the trade deadline last season and then signing a five-year extension in September, Robbie Ray heading into the second year of his five-year deal he signed prior to the 2022 season, and Marco Gonzales eating innings at the back of the rotation, Seattle entered this season with a starting five that appeared to be the biggest strength on the roster.

Things haven’t gone exactly according to plan. Ray injured his elbow in his first start of the season and underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery in early May; Gonzales has been out since late May with his own elbow issues. But despite losing two members of the Opening Day rotation, the Mariners have barely skipped a beat, thanks to the efforts of two more top prospects who have graduated to the majors this year: Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Seattle’s starters have the fourth best park- and league-adjusted FIP in the majors, and a park- and league-adjusted strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranks inside the top 20 among all 300 team seasons over the last decade. Only the Twins are outpacing them in those two categories in the American League.

After trying to fill Ray’s spot with a combination of Chris Flexen, Tommy Milone, and Easton McGee, the Mariners called up Miller on May 2 to make his debut against the light-hitting Athletics. He dazzled across six innings, allowing just two baserunners and one run and striking out ten. Across his first five starts in the majors, he allowed just 17 baserunners total, giving him the lowest WHIP (0.51) through a pitcher’s first five career starts in MLB history. A rough pair of outings against the Yankees and Rangers have been the lone blemish on Miller’s ledger; he’s bounced back with three excellent starts since then. Overall, he’s compiled a 3.88 ERA and a 3.36 FIP with a fantastic 4.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

As soon as Gonzales hit the IL with his injury, the Mariners quickly turned to another one of their youngsters. Woo made his debut on June 3, though his introduction to the big leagues did not go as well as Miller’s; given the assignment of slowing down the Rangers’ high-powered offense, he lasted just two innings, allowing six runs on seven hits and striking out four. He’s been much better over his last four starts, allowing just six runs total and posting a 5.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If you lower the bar far enough, Woo has the fourth-highest strikeout rate among all starters with at least 20 innings pitched this year. Read the rest of this entry »

With just a few weeks until the All-Star break, the best teams in the league have continued to separate themselves from the pack. There’s a huge contingent of teams vying over the remaining playoff berths in both the AL and the NL, and the relative weakness of the Central divisions has left the door open for clubs that would otherwise be considered out of the running.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays are in the middle of their first big slump of the season. They split both of their series against the Orioles and Royals last week, and haven’t won a series since taking two of three from the Rangers June 9–11. Their bullpen is scuffling, superstar wunderkind Wander Franco was benched for a couple of games for internal disciplinary reasons, and Shane McClanahan exited his start on Thursday early with back tightness. Both of those players seem to be on the mend, but Tampa has a pretty tough schedule as they head into the All-Star break, with three each against the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Phillies, and Braves. Read the rest of this entry »

A bunch of teams have gone streaking up the standings and in these rankings this week, with the Giants making their first appearance in the top five and the Rays taking back the top spot from the Rangers.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Neither the Rays or the Rangers had particularly good weeks last week; Tampa Bay split a series with an inspired A’s ballclub and then lost a series to the Padres, and Texas lost a big four-game series to the Angels before bouncing back against the Blue Jays over the weekend. Despite their excellent play this season, neither team has created much separation in their respective division races. The AL East has been competitive all season long, but the Rangers have let the Angels back into the AL West picture with that series loss. Read the rest of this entry »

The Reds are fun again, the A’s have won five straight, and the Diamondbacks and Pirates are leading their divisions. Apparently, we’ve entered the bizarro portion of the season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The big Rays-Rangers series over the weekend did not disappoint. None of the games were particularly close affairs, but both teams were able to showcase the top two offenses in baseball this year. On Saturday, Corey Seager went 5-for-5 with a home run and a double to power Texas’ eight-run outburst. The following day, Wander Franco blasted a go-ahead three-run home run in the fourth inning, his first dinger since May 9.

Beyond the big matchup with Tampa Bay, Texas also had to deal with some unfortunate news last week: Jacob deGrom will undergo his second Tommy John surgery and miss the rest of this season and most of the next. That puts a ton of pressure on the rest of the Rangers’ rotation to continue carrying the load without the best pitcher in baseball among their ranks. Luckily, Nathan Eovaldi has been phenomenal, and Dane Dunning has been doing his best to cover for deGrom, only now he’ll be needed for the entire season instead of just for a short while. Read the rest of this entry »

With the calendar flipped to June, there’s a new team on top of these power rankings.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rangers powered through a 5–1 week and won their fifth straight series by dropping 30 runs on the Mariners over the weekend. They have the best run differential in baseball and have set a new franchise mark for best record through the first 58 games of a season. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, their two big acquisitions a year ago, are producing at elite levels again, and they’re supported by a lineup that has few holes in it. They’ve had all this success despite getting just six starts from Jacob deGrom, their big acquisition this offseason, thus far.

In a matchup of two of the best teams in the National League, the Braves wound up taking two of three from the Diamondbacks in Arizona in a dramatic weekend series full of twists and turns. That was a nice bounce-back after losing two of three to the A’s earlier in the week, giving Oakland its first series win of the season. While there are still plenty of questions about Atlanta’s pitching staff, their offense continues to power their success; Ronald Acuña Jr. is the current favorite to win the NL MVP, and Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy are a fantastic supporting cast. Read the rest of this entry »

After breaking their long postseason drought last year, the Mariners entered 2023 with some lofty expectations led by Julio Rodríguez, the AL Rookie of the Year, and a cadre of young pitchers. Seattle got off to a slow start in April, limping to a 12–16 record during the first month of the season. Things got a little better in May, but the team really turned on the jets over the last week and half, cruising through a 7–3 homestand that pushed its record to 29–27.

The real story of the week was Rodríguez, who earned American League Player of the Week honors by collecting 14 hits, six extra-base hits, and seven RBIs. He added another four hits and a home run against the Yankees earlier this week, raising his wRC+ from 86 to 111 in the span of these ten games.

Even though the Mariners have one of the best pitching staffs in the majors and a top-tier defense, the ongoing struggles of their offense have held them back to start this season. They’ve scored 4.45 runs per game thus far with a team wRC+ of 97, a little below league average. The slow start from Rodríguez has been a key aspect of that lack of production, though there are other (non) contributors too. Still, it seems like as Julio goes, the Mariners go.

Rodríguez got off to a similar slow start during his rookie campaign last year: through April, he was batting just .205/.284/.260 with a 61 wRC+ and a gaudy 37.0% strikeout rate. He hit his first major league home run on May 1, though, and never looked back from there. This year, his struggles were a little more pronounced and prolonged: through May 21, he was slashing .204/.280/.376, good for an 86 wRC+ with a 28.5% strikeout rate. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a third of the way through the regular season, and June is right around the corner. The teams in the American League have sorted themselves into haves and have-nots, but the National League looks wide open for any team to make a run this summer.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

The Rays just wrapped up a long homestand where they went 7–3 against the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. Their schedule in May has been particularly tough, with every single series (except for their current one against the Cubs) coming against teams with winning records. Naturally, when facing its weakest opponent since April, Tampa Bay was shut out in a 1–0 loss on Monday. Also, don’t look now, but the Rangers have overtaken the Rays for the best run differential in baseball.

The Braves welcomed back Michael Soroka on Monday, as he made his first major league start since August 2020. He wasn’t particularly sharp, allowing four runs in six innings against the A’s, but his resilience to get back to the big leagues after so many injuries is inspiring. The hope is that he’ll be able to stabilize an Atlanta rotation still suffering from the absences of Max Fried and Kyle Wright. On offense, Austin Riley’s bat has finally started to heat up; he’s in the midst of an 11-game hitting streak that includes nine extra-base hits. Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees and Cardinals have surged up the standings — and these rankings — behind some outstanding performances from their superstars. That suggests it’s not too late for a big turn around from those early strugglers, especially since the best teams really haven’t been able to separate themselves from the pack so far.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays lost a hard fought series against the Mets last week before taking two of three from the Brewers over the weekend. Their pace has definitely slowed recently, though they’re still on track to challenge the 2001 Mariners’ win record. The injuries are piling up and their entire division is sitting above .500, with the Orioles just 2.5 games behind them. On Sunday, they lost just their fourth game at home this season; they’ll host the Blue Jays and Dodgers this week. Read the rest of this entry »

When Luis García first debuted back in 2020, he was the youngest player in the majors at just 20 years old. He’s split the past two seasons between Triple-A and the big leagues, and turned 23 just yesterday. Players who make it to the show at such a young age are almost exclusively highly regarded prospects; García was ranked 87th overall on our 2020 top prospect list. Of the 12 players who’ve made it to the majors at age 20 or younger over the last decade, García’s -0.5 WAR in his debut season was the second-worst mark and his total WAR ranks dead last. Despite getting called up at such a young age, he’s really struggled to make an impact at the highest level. But after playing in over 200 games in the majors, it finally looks like he’s taken a step forward in his development.

As a prospect, the biggest knock against García was his extremely aggressive approach at the plate. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills, but he would chase bad pitches so often that when he wasn’t swinging and missing, he was making really poor contact. During his first three years in the league, he ran a 20.4% strikeout rate with a minuscule 3.5% walk rate, the lowest in the majors during that period. After posting identical wRC+ marks of 79 during his first two years in the big leagues, he improved to a 93 last year, driven almost entirely by better results when putting the ball in play. Read the rest of this entry »