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The Strongest Positions on the Remaining AL Contenders

Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Tuesday night was big for clinching. The Astros secured the AL West, leaving only the AL East and the NL West in play. The Guardians became the first team to clinch a first-round bye, and both the Orioles and Padres clinched playoff berths, the latter by getting the final three outs via a triple play against the Dodgers, a confluence of circumstances unprecedented in major league history. Where we entered Tuesday with 10 teams fighting for seven remaining berths, we’re down to seven teams battling for four spots. But even with the playoff field not fully set, we thought it would be a fun and worthwhile exercise to highlight various facets of the potential October teams by going around the diamond to identify the strongest and weakest at each position in each league.

As noted in Tuesday’s installment, which focused on the strongest positions among the remaining NL contenders, this is something of an offshoot of my annual Replacement Level Killers series, and in fact, even some confirmed October participants have spots that still fit the bill as true lineup sinkholes — think first base for the Yankees and Brewers — only this time with no trade deadline to help fill them. For this, I’m considering full-season performance but with an eye to who’s best or worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Unlike the Killers series, I’m also considering pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens factoring into my deliberations.

For this installment, I’ll go around the American League, highlighting each position’s best among the remaining contenders. In this case that limits the field to the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Astros, and Mariners, with the last of those admittedly on the ropes, down two and a half games in the Wild Card race, with the Twins half a game ahead of them, and Playoff Odds of just 2.9%. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/24/24

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Today I bring you a comparatively brief chat (just an hour) and the final one from this 2 pm ET time slot. Next week, I’ll be part of our group Wild Card chat (details tba), and in two weeks, I’m planning to debut in the 12 pm ET slot on Tuesdays.

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: This is mainly because parenting responsibilities — mostly pick-ups from school  — have been cutting into this 2 pm time. I hope those of you who have joined me here will make the journey.

2:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece today that’s the first of a four-part series, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the remaining contenders in a Replacement Level Killers-style trip around the diamond, only this time with pitching as well. This first installment is devoted to the best in the NL https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-strongest-positions-on-the-remaining-n…

2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow will be the best in the AL. Yesterday I checked in on what’s left of the Wild Card races https://blogs.fangraphs.com/setting-up-a-wild-card-final-week/

2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show…

2:05
brooklyn resident: Ohtani: best DH season ever?

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The Strongest Positions on the Remaining NL Contenders

Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

With six days left in the regular season — and six games for most teams — three teams have clinched their respective divisions (the Brewers, Guardians, and Phillies), and two others have clinched playoff berths (the Dodgers and Yankees). That leaves 10 teams fighting for seven spots, but even with the playoff field not fully set, we thought it would be a fun and worthwhile exercise to highlight various facets of the potential October teams by going around the diamond to identify the strongest and weakest at each position in each league.

This is something of an offshoot of my annual Replacement Level Killers series, and in fact even some confirmed October participants have spots that still fit the bill as true lineup sinkholes — think first base for the Yankees and Brewers, to pick one position from among the aforementioned teams — but this time with no trade deadline to help fill them. For this, I’ll be considering full-season performance but with an eye to who’s best or worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Unlike the Killers series, I’ll also be considering pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens part of the deliberations.

For the first installment of this series, I’ll focus on each position’s best among the remaining National League contenders. In this case that limits the field to the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Braves, with the last three of those teams fighting for two Wild Card spots. Read the rest of this entry »


Setting Up a Wild (Card) Final Week

Brett Davis and Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

As we head into the final week of the regular season, 15 teams still show signs of life when it comes to claiming a playoff berth. On the one hand, that sounds impressive — half the majors still contending — and it’s on par with last year and better than 2022. Nonetheless, it still boils down to just three teams falling by the wayside, and just one of the six division leads having a greater than 1% chance of changing hands. As noted previously, since the adoption of the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement and its four-round playoff system, the options for scheduling chaos have been replaced by the excitement of math. On-field tiebreakers are a thing of the past, with head-to-head records usually all that are required to sort things out.

On Friday I checked in on the race to secure first-round byes, which go to the teams with the top two records in each league, so today I’ll shift focus to what’s left of the Wild Card races. Thankfully, there’s still enough at stake for both leagues to offering some amount of intrigue. Read the rest of this entry »


Hello, Bye: Checking in on the Races for Playoff Seeding

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

With just 10 days left to go in the regular season, four teams — the Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians, and Yankees — have clinched playoff berths, and while just one division race has been decided, only two others have even a faint pulse. There’s still plenty of drama to be had with regards to the Wild Card races, which essentially boil down to a pair of four-to-make-three scenarios; Seattle might have been a stronger fifth in the AL if certain Mariners who reached third base didn’t insist upon taking very strange walkabouts. Beyond that, it’s also worth checking in on the jockeying for position to claim the first-round byes that go to the top two teams in each league.

Once upon a time, this space would be filled with my reintroducing readers to the concept of Team Entropy, but through the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, Major League Baseball and the players’ union traded the potential excitement and scheduling mayhem created by on-field tiebreakers and sudden-death games in exchange for a larger inventory of playoff games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the top two teams by allowing them to bypass the possibility of being eliminated in best-of-three series. So far, however, things haven’t worked out that way, because outcomes in a best-of-five series are only slightly more predictable than those of a best-of-three.

In fact, the National League teams who have received byes under the newish system have lost all four Division Series since, two apiece by the Dodgers and Braves. The 111-win Dodgers were ousted by an 89-win Padres team in 2022, and then last year’s 100-win team was knocked off by the 84-win Diamondbacks. In 2022, the 101-win Braves fell to an 87-win Phillies team, and last year, after winning 104 games in the regular season, Atlanta once again was eliminated by a Philadelphia club that had finished 14 games behind the Braves in the standings. American League bye teams have had more success, going 3-1, with last year’s 90-win Rangers beating the 101-win Orioles for the lone upset. The Astros have taken care of business in both years, with their 106-win club sweeping the 90-win Mariners in 2022 and their 90-win team beating the 87-win Twins last year. Read the rest of this entry »


The Orioles Ran Out of Time To Fix Craig Kimbrel

Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Craig Kimbrel lost his job as the Orioles’ closer back in July due to his erratic performance. Now he’s out of a job completely. With just 11 games remaining in the regular season, the Orioles designated the 36-year-old righty for assignment on Wednesday, guaranteeing that he won’t be a participant in this year’s postseason, either for the playoff-bound Orioles or anyone else.

The decision came less than 24 hours after the worst outing of Kimbrel’s career. Called upon in the ninth inning of Tuesday night’s game with the Orioles trailing the Giants 4-0, Kimbrel struck out Patrick Bailey, but then all hell broke loose: a single, a steal, a wild pitch, a walk, a sacrifice bunt for which the throw home was too late, another walk, a strikeout, a two-run single, and an RBI double. After he departed, Matt Bowman yielded another two-run single, with both runs charged to Kimbrel’s ledger. It was the first time in 837 major league outings that he had allowed six runs; he’d never even allowed five before, but it was the eighth outing out of his last 11 in which Kimbrel was scored upon, raising his ERA to an unsightly 5.33.

On the one hand, this is a somewhat shocking turn of events for a player who made his ninth All-Star team just last season and plausibly could have this year as well. On the other hand, Kimbrel has been so ineffective lately that without his gaudy résumé — he’s fifth on the career saves list with 440, and may one day wind up in Cooperstown — and his big salary, he might have lost his roster spot awhile ago, particularly on a team whose bullpen has been a problem for months.

“We have so much respect for Craig and his career and what he’s done for the game, how long he’s pitched, how long he’s pitched well,” manager Brandon Hyde told reporters on Wednesday. “So it’s never easy to say goodbye to someone that’s done a lot. A heck of a first half for us, helped us win a ton of games. He’s an amazing teammate. He’s incredible in the clubhouse and just a class, class act.”

With closer Félix Bautista slated to miss the season after undergoing both Tommy John surgery and a follow-up ulnar nerve transposition and scar tissue cleanup, the Orioles signed Kimbrel to a one-year, $13 million contract in December, a deal that included performance bonuses as well as a $13 million club option for 2025, with a $1 million buyout. Baltimore represented Kimbrel’s fifth stop in four seasons; he pitched for the Cubs and White Sox in 2021, the Dodgers in ’22, and the Phillies last year. Throughout that nomadic run — and before that, dating back to his time with the Cubs (2019 to mid-2021) and Red Sox (2016–18) — he led something of a Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde existence, at times dominating opponents the way he did during his stellar run in Atlanta, but sometimes falling into bad habits mechanically. “Too rotational” is a phrase that has surfaced multiple times over the years to describe Kimbrel’s tendency to get out of whack. By getting down the mound too quickly instead of staying back, he has struggled with his release point and sacrificed deception, command, and unpredictability.

In 2019–20, a span during which Kimbrel threw just 36 innings due to a prolonged free agency and the pandemic, he posted a 6.00 ERA and 6.29 FIP. He bounced back to make the NL All-Star team in 2021, posting an 0.49 ERA and 1.01 FIP in 36 2/3 innings for the Cubs, but then a 5.09 ERA and 4.56 FIP after being traded to the White Sox on July 26. He put in serviceable seasons for the Dodgers and Phillies, combining for a 3.49 ERA and 3.54 FIP, but lost his closer’s job in Los Angeles in September 2022 and was left off the postseason roster. Last October, he was one of the goats as the Phillies were upset by the Diamondbacks, taking losses in Games 3 and 4 of the NLCS.

Kimbrel began his tenure with the Orioles in inauspicious fashion, blowing a save but collecting a win against the Royals on Opening Day. He blew two more saves in April, but none in May and just one in June. On July 7, he converted his 16th save in 17 attempts since the start of May, and 23rd in 27 attempts overall, lowering his season ERA to 2.10 and his FIP to 2.47. To that point, he had been scored upon just twice in his past 22 games, with one of his two runs allowed (across a total of 21 innings) an unearned run, a Manfred man who scored the game-winner for the Blue Jays in the 10th frame on June 5.

After that July 7 save, Kimbrel didn’t pitch again for a week, and when he did, the bottom began to drop out. Protecting a one-run lead against the Yankees at Camden Yards on July 14, he began the ninth by waking Trent Grisham and Oswaldo Cabrera, the Yankees’ eighth and ninth hitters, then served up a three-run homer to rookie Ben Rice. The Orioles got him off the hook with a three-run ninth against Clay Holmes. The decision had been made before that sad Sunday, but Holmes, who finished the first half with a 2.77 ERA and 2.74 FIP, made the AL All-Star team, while Kimbrel, who had a 2.80 ERA and 2.97 FIP by the end of that outing, did not. Just sayin’.

Kimbrel threw a scoreless inning in his next outing, against the Rangers on July 20, but he was scored upon in his subsequent three games, blowing another save and taking a loss as well. He didn’t get another save chance, as the Orioles traded for Seranthony Domínguez, his former Phillies teammate, on July 26. In fact, Kimbrel rarely got another high-leverage opportunity — just three of his final 15 appearances had a leverage index over 0.41, and one of those was 0.88.

Even in mostly low-leverage situations, Kimbrel didn’t perform up to major league standards. Across his 18 innings from July 14 onward, he was lit for an 11.50 ERA with a 7.45 FIP. He allowed five home runs in that span, walking 17.5% of hitters while striking out 21.6%. It was uncomfortable to witness, even when he pitched in games that had more or less been decided.

Overall, Kimbrel’s 4.18 FIP and 4.24 xERA suggest that he’s pitched better than that 5.33 ERA. He’s struck out 31.5% of batters, but he’s walked 13.4%, a mark he exceeded in both 2016 and ’20 (small sample alert). That said, his 54.3% first-pitch strike rate, 24.1% chase rate, and 11.8% swinging strike rate are his lowest marks for any season in which he’s thrown more than 21 innings. Looking to Statcast, his velocity loss particularly stands out. His four-seam fastball has averaged just 93.9 mph, down about two miles per hour from last year, and fading further as the season has gone on, with his results predictably going south as well:

The Decline of Craig Kimbrel’s Four-Seam Fastball
Period Velo PA AVG xBA SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA EV Whiff
2022 95.8 170 .259 .199 .408 .345 .338 .293 88.9 23.4%
2023 95.8 190 .185 .185 .346 .345 .286 .293 91.4 30.6%
2024 93.9 167 .203 .213 .421 .411 .339 .340 92.2 28.9%
April 93.9 37 .207 .245 .379 .423 .326 .352 90.7 34.2%
May 94.6 26 .091 .154 .227 .382 .220 .296 92.9 31.6%
June 94.5 28 .174 .185 .217 .227 .262 .270 91.2 25.8%
July 93.6 33 .192 .201 .462 .460 .362 .363 93.1 25.4%
August 92.9 28 .273 .304 .727 .627 .451 .433 96.3 28.6%
September 93.4 15 .364 .147 .636 .275 .477 .286 85.6 25.0%

The lower velocity cost Kimbrel about an inch of horizontal break relative to last year, in exchange for an inch of vertical break, and both of our pitch modeling systems capture the decline, both from year to year and in-season. Here’s a look at Kimbrel via Stuff+:

Craig Kimbrel, Stuff+
Period FA KC Stuff+ Location+ Pitching+
2022 116 112 115 102 104
2023 125 126 125 102 114
2024 – Through July 7 114 121 116 99 104
2024 – Since July 8 103 113 106 91 97

Note the huge falloffs in Location+ and Pitching+, as well as the overall grade. From last year to the latter half of this season, that’s about one full standard deviation of decline in Stuff+, and two standard deviations of decline in Location+ and Pitching+.

Kimbrel’s other main pitch, his knuckle curve, didn’t fall off as drastically as his fastball. Batters have hit the pitch for a decent .261 average, but he’s limited them to a meager .283 slugging percentage and a .252 wOBA with it, to go along with a 34.8% whiff rate. Those numbers aren’t quite as good as they were last year (.219 wOBA, 38.8%), but they’re more than serviceable. The problem is that from July onward, batters slugged .593 with a .416 wOBA against the fastball and slugged .385 with a .335 wOBA against the knuckle curve, leaving him without an effective weapon in what has basically been a two-pitch arsenal. He did have some success with a sweeper, throwing it 5.1% of the time overall and inducing a .114 wOBA and 44.4% whiff rate, but the pitch — which he generally threw to righties — all but disappeared from his repertoire in August and September.

The Orioles ran out of time to fix Kimbrel, and they’ve had myriad other problems to confront as they look to October, whether they rally to erase their current five-game deficit in the AL East or hold onto the top Wild Card spot. The O’s have gone just 31-37 since July 1, and haven’t posted a winning record in any calendar month since then. From July 1 through Tuesday, their bullpen was lit for a 4.94 ERA, fourth worst in the majors, with four relievers in addition to Kimbrel throwing at least 10 innings with ERAs above 5.00: Bryan Baker (5.73 in 11 innings), Burch Smith (5.74 in 26 2/3 innings), Gregory Soto (16.59 in 13 2/3 innings), and the since-departed Cole Irvin (8.50 in 18 innings). Domínguez hasn’t been great (3.26 ERA, 5.14 FIP), but Yennier Cano, Keegan Akin, and Cionel Pérez have been pretty good. The right-handed Cano and the left-handed Pérez are the top setup men, generally available for the occasional save chance based on matchups or if Domínguez is unavailable, though Cano has apparently been dealing with forearm tightness and wasn’t available in Wednesday’s loss to the Giants. The rotation, which has dealt with the losses of Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to UCL-related surgeries, and Grayson Rodriguez to a lat strain, delivered just a 4.41 ERA (111 ERA-) and a 4.15 FIP (102 FIP-) from the start of July through Tuesday.

Yet the pitching hasn’t been the problem during this month’s 6-9 slide. Instead it’s been an offense that’s managing just an 89 wRC+ and 3.47 runs per game while missing the injured Ryan Mountcastle, Ramón Urías, and Jordan Westburg. “The testing of our depth, and a lot of depth we’ve lost, is not something I anticipated in this degree in the second half on the position player side,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s turned out here that’s not necessarily been the crisis we were expecting in the second half, and we’ve been paying for it.”

As for Kimbrel, he’ll likely go unclaimed as he passes through waivers and then get released, leaving the Orioles on the hook for the remainder of his salary and his buyout. While I don’t think we’ve seen the last of him, we’ve probably seen the last of his big contracts.

As for whether this rough stretch will affect Kimbrel’s Hall of Fame chances, I hardly think the matter is as simple or the situation as dire as one writer suggested on Twitter while pointing out that Kimbrel’s 18-inning rough patch lowered his career ERA+ from 171 to 158. That current mark (off of a 2.59 ERA) is higher than seven of the eight Hall of Fame relievers: Hoyt Wilhelm (147), Trevor Hoffman (141), Bruce Sutter (136), Lee Smith (132), Goose Gossage (126), Rollie Fingers (120), and Dennis Eckersley (116, including his time as a starter). The rub is that each of those seven (and Mariano Rivera, the eighth) has pitched at least 232 1/3 innings more than Kimbrel (809 2/3), with some of those enshrinees having more than double his total. Even Billy Wagner, who’s on the doorstep of Cooperstown after getting 73.8% of the vote last year, threw 903 innings (with an elite 187 ERA+).

Kimbrel’s case — which like that of Wagner is driven by exceptional rate stats rather than volume — does have some things in his favor. His nine All-Star selections is tied with Gossage for second behind Rivera’s 13. His 38.8% strikeout rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 800 innings, well ahead of the second-ranked Kenley Jansen (35.5%) and third-ranked Wagner (33.2%). Likewise, his .167 opponents batting average has supplanted Wagner (.184) for the lead at the 800-inning cutoff, with Jansen (.182) sneaking ahead of him as well. His postseason body of work isn’t particularly pretty (4.50 ERA with 10 saves in 30 innings), and his performance during the Red Sox’s 2018 championship run led to Alex Cora’s choosing Chris Sale to close out the World Series against the Dodgers, but his lone ring and modest postseason stats surpass Wagner’s postseason résumé.

Turning to my Reliever JAWS metric, here’s the top 25:

Top Relievers by R-JAWS
Rk Player WAR WPA WPA/LI R-JAWS
1 Mariano Rivera+ 56.3 56.6 33.6 48.8
2 Dennis Eckersley+ 62.1 30.8 25.8 39.6
3 Hoyt Wilhelm+ 46.8 30.4 26.3 34.3
4 Goose Gossage+ 41.1 32.5 14.8 29.5
5 Trevor Hoffman+ 28.0 34.2 19.3 27.1
6 Billy Wagner 27.7 29.1 17.9 24.9
7 Joe Nathan 26.7 30.6 15.8 24.4
8 Firpo Marberry 30.6 25.5 16.8 24.3
9 Tom Gordon 35.0 21.3 14.5 23.6
10 Kenley Jansen 21.9 28.8 17.2 22.6
11 Jonathan Papelbon 23.3 28.3 13.4 21.7
12 Ellis Kinder 28.9 23.8 11.7 21.5
13 Francisco Rodríguez 24.2 24.4 14.7 21.1
14 Lee Smith+ 28.9 21.3 12.7 21.0
15 Stu Miller 27.0 20.5 13.5 20.7
16 David Robertson 21.3 23.6 14.2 19.7
17 Craig Kimbrel 22.3 22.6 13.9 19.6
18 Tom Henke 22.9 21.3 13.9 19.4
19 Dan Quisenberry 24.6 20.7 12.5 19.3
20 Rollie Fingers+ 25.6 16.2 15.1 19.0
21 Tug McGraw 21.8 21.5 13.1 18.8
22 Bobby Shantz 34.6 10.4 10.1 18.4
23 John Hiller 30.4 14.6 9.4 18.1
24 Bruce Sutter+ 24.1 18.2 11.9 18.1
25 Aroldis Chapman 20.5 20.7 12.7 18.0
Hall avg w/Eckersley 39.1 30 19.9 29.7
Hall avg w/o Eckersley 35.8 29.9 19.1 28.3
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
R-JAWS is the average of WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI.
+ = Hall of Famer

When I checked in last November while covering Wagner’s Hall of Fame case, Jansen ranked 14th, Kimbrel 15th, and Robertson 23rd. Jansen has had a solid season for the Red Sox (3.42 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 27 saves). He’s gained 1.7 points of R-JAWS, enough to vault him into the top 10; he’s also climbed from seventh in saves (420) to fourth (447). Though he’s notched just two saves to run his career total to a comparatively meager 177, Robertson has pitched well for Texas (3.22 ERA, 2.59 FIP), adding 1.6 points as well to jump seven places. Meanwhile, Kimbrel has lost 1.3 points due to his sub-zero bWAR (-1.2) and WPA (-2.3), costing him a couple spots in the rankings.

If Kimbrel were on the ballot today, I don’t think he’d be elected, but then Eckersley and Rivera have been the only relievers to gain entry on the first ballot; aside from Fingers (elected in his second year) and Hoffman (third year) it’s been a slog for most of the others. As with Wagner, who’s heading into his 10th and final year on the writers’ ballot, one facet of the candidacies of Kimbrel and Jansen that I expect will become more clear over time is the high attrition rate of their peers and the wave of stars that has followed them. Chapman, who has 330 saves, is almost certainly done as a full-time closer, and while Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader are more or less halfway to 400 saves (223 for the former, 196 for the latter), each has already endured lengthy bouts of ineffectiveness, hanging full-season ERAs above 5.00 — and they’re in just their age-30 seasons. It’s nearly impossible to remain a top-flight closer for, say, a decade, and a viable one for a decade and a half. It’s even harder, obviously, to do the same as a starter, and if you want to take umbrage over Wagner’s possible election while Mark Buehrle has yet to clear 11% percent of the vote, I get it, but that’s a beef for another day.

Again, I don’t think this will be the last we hear from Kimbrel, though the book on him is probably closed for this year, which could save all of us some agita as we watch him walk two guys and have to wriggle out of another jam. When he’s on, he still has the swing-and-miss stuff to nail down the ninth inning. Here’s hoping he finds it again.


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/17/24

2:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of September. I apologize for that — this current time slot hasn’t worked out well lately with dad duties and so I’m going to explore moving to a 12 pm time slot

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ve got a piece up today about the returns of Buxton and Correa to a Twins team that has been pretty bad lately https://blogs.fangraphs.com/byron-buxton-and-carlos-correa-are-back-bu…

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I checked in on Eugenio Suárez’s turnaround and how it’s helped the Diamondbacks take hold of a Wild Card spot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eugenio-suarezs-extended-hot-streak-contin…

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show

2:02
Insert Witty Name Here: So uhhh….where ya been?

2:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: A lot of times that I miss the chat it’s because I have to pick up my daughter from school or (in the summer) camp.   Just tough to get around needing to happen in the middle of a chat.

Read the rest of this entry »


Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa Are Back, but the Twins Are Barely Hanging On

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins still have a hold on the third AL Wild Card spot — for the moment. After blowing a 3-0 lead against the Guardians in Monday’s series opener in Cleveland, they’ve lost 18 of their past 27 games. They haven’t won a series against a team with a winning percentage of .500 or better in over a month, and now lead the surging Tigers by just a game and a half in the Wild Card standings. This past weekend, Minnesota activated both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa from the injured list following lengthy absences, but the two stars by all accounts are playing at less than 100 percent, and sadly for manager Rocco Baldelli, they aren’t likely to provide innings out of the bullpen when they’re not in the lineup.

As of August 17, the Twins were 70-53, a season-high 17 games above .500. At the time, they were running second in the AL Central, two games behind the Guardians, and second in the Wild Card race, a game and a half behind the Orioles but two games ahead of the Royals, from whom they’d just taken two out of three (that aforementioned last series victory against a winning team). Since then, the Twins have gone just 9-18 (.333), outdoing only the White Sox (5-21, .192) and Angels (7-19, .269) among all major league teams; even the worst NL team in that span, the Marlins, has gone 10-17 (.370). The slump has pretty much closed the door on Minnesota’s chances of claiming the AL Central, and meanwhile, the Tigers have gone 17-9, tied for the majors’ best record in that span, to poke their noses into the Wild Card picture.

Twins Change in Playoff Odds
Date W L W% Div GB WC GB Div Bye WC Playoffs Win WS
August 17 70 53 .569 2 +5* 36.8% 33.9% 55.6% 92.4% 6.4%
September 17 79 71 .527 7.5 +1.5* 0.2% 0.1% 76.6% 76.7% 3.2%
Change 9 18 .333 -36.6% -33.8% +21.0% -15.7% -3.2%
* = lead over top non-Wild Card team.

During this slide, the Twins have lost series to the Padres, Cardinals, Braves, Royals, and Reds, splitting one with the Rays, and beating only the Blue Jays and Angels — not exactly a performance befitting a playoff-bound team. In that span, the offense has scored just 3.81 runs per game while the pitching staff has allowed 5.22 per game. It’s not what you want. Read the rest of this entry »


Eugenio Suárez’s Extended Hot Streak Continues to Drive the Diamondbacks

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Diamondbacks won a wild game against the Brewers at Chase Field on Sunday, one in which they built and then squandered a 5-0 lead, overcame an 8-5 deficit to send the game to extra innings, fell behind 10-8 in the 10th inning, and finally, won in walk-off fashion, 11-10. Eugenio Suárez was at the center of much of the excitement. The 33-year-old third baseman drove in the game’s first run, and later plated both the tying and winning runs as well. It was the latest stellar performance of the player who’s been the NL’s hottest hitter since the beginning of July, digging his way out of an early-season slump.

Suárez began his Sunday afternoon by slapping a one-out RBI single off DL Hall through the right side of the infield, bringing home the first of three runs that the Diamondbacks scored in that frame. Facing Hall again, he struck out in the third before Arizona mounted a two-out, two-run rally that extended its lead to 5-0. Suárez grounded out against Joe Ross to end the fourth, and struck out again, against Aaron Ashby, to end the sixth, by which point the Brewers had pulled ahead 7-5 after chasing Zac Gallen and roughing up reliever Kevin Ginkel.

After the Diamondbacks scored two runs to cut the lead to 8-7 in the seventh, Suárez hit a sacrifice fly that brought home Corbin Carroll — who had walked, stolen second, and taken third on a wild pitch — in the eighth. Milwaukee scored two in the top of the 10th, but in the bottom of the frame, four straight Diamondbacks reached base, via three singles and a hit-by-pitch, before Suárez swatted a towering 100.5-mph fly ball that bounced off the right-center field wall, driving home Ketel Marte with the winning run. Read the rest of this entry »


Seth Lugo’s Kitchen Sink Approach Has Worked Brilliantly

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

On Tuesday night, while much of the country tuned in to see Kamala Harris debate Donald Trump, I watched an even more lopsided performance from the upper deck at Yankee Stadium, where the Royals’ Seth Lugo utterly dominated the Yankees, holding them to just three hits, walking none and striking out 10 over seven innings in a 5-0 Kansas City win. Through six innings, the only Yankee to reach base was Gleyber Torres, who blooped soft singles into center field on Lugo’s fifth pitch of the game and then, roughly an hour and 20 minutes later, on his 86th pitch; in between, Lugo retired 17 straight hitters. It was the latest in a season full of great outings from the righty, who at 34 years old is having a career year while pushing the Royals toward their first postseason berth since 2015.

Lugo’s seven scoreless frames ran his total to a major league-leading 193 innings while lowering his ERA to 2.94, second in the AL behind only Tarik Skubal. Meanwhile, he’s third in WAR with 4.4, 0.2 behind teammate Cole Ragans, fifth in FIP (3.27), seventh in walk rate (5.8%), and eighth in strikeouts (169) despite punching out hitters at a modest 21.7% rate. He’s also tied with Skubal for the league lead in wins (16), and so by our Cy Young Projection model and its multiple variants, his suite of stats puts him second in the AL to Skubal and a comfortable margin ahead of Ragans, Logan Gilbert, and Framber Valdez. All of this is happening in the first year of a three-year, $45 million contract he signed with the Royals last December, and in just his third season as a starter after largely being typecast as a workhorse reliever during his seven seasons with the Mets (2016–22).

Knocking back a couple of beers from my partial season ticket group’s usual perch in Section 422 affords a different perspective than in the press box or at home. So when Sports Reference’s Katie Sharp noted that the game was the first time the Yankees had ever been held to zero walks and zero extra-base hits while striking out at least 14 times, I decided to take a closer look at Lugo’s night to gain a fuller appreciation of what’s made him so successful lately. Read the rest of this entry »